FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE FOREST INDUSTRY SPCI Stockholm Timo Suhonen, Nicholas Oksanen April 28, 2016
FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE FOREST INDUSTRY SPCI Stockholm Timo Suhonen, Nicholas Oksanen
April 28, 2016
PULP & PAPER MARKET OUTLOOK
TIMO SUHONEN
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 3
WORLD PAPER PRODUCTION 1950–2015
Production of paper and paperboard has stalled since 2010.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Million tons
1950s:
CAGR 5.5%/a
3.0 million t/a
1980s:
CAGR 3.5%/a
6.9 million t/a
1970s:
CAGR 3.1%/a
4.5 million t/a
1960s:
CAGR 5.7%/a
5.3 million t/a
1990s:
CAGR 3.1%/a
8.7 million t/a
2000s:
CAGR 1.9%/a
6.6 million t/a
2010-2015
CAGR 0.5%/a
1.8 million t/a
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 4
World demand for paper and paperboard Market structure by main product area
WORLD DEMAND FOR PAPER & PAPERBOARD 2000-2014
Globally, the share of packaging out of total paper and paperboard demand has
grown; graphic papers have been losing ground
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Million tonnes
News 12%
P/W 31%
Tissue 6%
Packaging 51%
2000
News 7%
P/W 26%
Tissue 8%
Packaging 59%
2014
327 million tonnes
401 million tonnes
Packaging
Tissue
P/W
Newsprint
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 5
Demand for paper and paperboard in Europe Market structure by main product area
DEMAND FOR PAPER & PAPERBOARD IN EUROPE 2000-2014
The share of packaging out of total paper and paperboard demand in Europe has
grown from 47% in 2000 to 53% in 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Million tonnes
News 14%
P/W 33%
Tissue 6%
Packaging 47%
2000
News 9%
P/W 29%
Tissue 9%
Packaging 53%
2014
90 million tonnes
92 million tonnes
Packaging
Tissue
P/W
Newsprint
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 6
Demand for paper and paperboard in Asia Market structure by main product area
DEMAND FOR PAPER & PAPERBOARD IN ASIA 2000-2014
The demand for paper and paperboard in Asia continues to grow; the share of
packaging and tissue is growing while graphics decline
0
40
80
120
160
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Million tonnes
News 10%
P/W 29%
Tissue 5%
Packaging 56%
2000
News 6%
P/W 26%
Tissue 6%
Packaging 62%
2014
107 million tonnes
191 million tonnes
Packaging
Tissue
P/W
Newsprint
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ESTIMATED GDP GROWTH BY REGION THROUGH 2030
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 7
The world economy is projected to grow by 3.0%/a through 2030
Real GDP growth, %/a
Middle East
Eastern Europe
China
Latin America
Rest of Asia
Oceania
Japan
Western Europe
North America
Average 3.0%/a
Share of total GDP 2013, %
Africa
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
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KEY MEGATRENDS OF THE PAPER INDUSTRY
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 8
Key megatrends shaping the global paper and paperboard industry.
Demographics
• Urbanization
• Aging population
• Middle class
• Increasing # of
households
Economic trends
• Globalization
• Consolidation
• Limited resources
• Digital economy
Political &
regulatory trends
• New power centres
• Trade liberalization
• Africa waking up Environmental
trends
• Climate change
• Waste mgmt
• Chain of custody
Technological
trends
• Digitization
• Automation
• New materials/
nanotechnology
Paper and
Paperboard
Industry
Consumer trends
• Westernization
• Social media
• E-commerce/on-
line shopping
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 9
WORLD DEMAND FOR PAPER AND PAPERBOARD 2000-2030
World demand for paper and paperboard is expected to grow by 1.0%/a in the long
term, reaching 467 million tonnes by 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Million tonnes
North America
Mature
markets
CAGR
-0.9%/a
Emerging
markets
CAGR
2.1%/a
Rest of the World Forecast
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
China
Rest of Asia, incl.
Middle East
Latin America
Japan
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 10
LONG-TERM PAPER DEMAND GROWTH BY REGION
Global paper and paperboard demand is forecast to grow 1.0%/a in the long term
Rest of the World Average 1.0 %/a
Rest of Asia
Eastern Europe Latin America
North America
China
India
Middle-East
Japan Western Europe
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of consumption in 2014, %
Demand growth, %/a
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LONG-TERM PAPER DEMAND GROWTH BY PRODUCT AREA
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 11
Demand for graphic papers will weaken during 2014-2030, while the consumption
of tissue papers and packaging boards continues to grow
Other grades
Cartonboards Containerboards
Average 1.0 %/a
Tissue
Sack paper
Uncoated woodfree Coated
woodfree
Newsprint
Uncoated mechanical
Coated mechanical
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of consumption in 2014, %
Demand growth, %/a
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 12
GLOBAL PAPER INDUSTRY ASSET QUALITY COMPARISON
In terms of asset quality, China stands out as the largest and most modern paper
producing region
Technical age, years
Weighted Average PM capacity, 1000 t/a
Weighted average
technical age 18 years WEAK
STRONG
Weighted average
capacity 213 000 t/a
China
Nordic
Countries
North
America
Western
Europe
Japan
Asia-Pacific Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
Africa
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PAPER INDUSTRY SUPPLY/DEMAND IN CHINA
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 13
Over-investments in have led to significant house-cleaning in China; aftershocks
are also felt in Europe and America
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2010 2015 2020
Confirmed capacity changes
Capacity
Demand
Production base
Production high
Million t/a
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PAPER MARKET – KEY MESSAGES
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 14
Graphic paper market maturity
– Slowing demand
– Over-capacity
Tissue boom
– Healthy demand growth
– Investment boom, especially in Asia
Packaging market transformation
– Export packaging meltdown in China
– Over-capacity
Industry’s response – way forward
– Disciplined approach to capacity expansions
– Exits, repurposing, relocation
– Competition cost efficiency, operational excellence
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 15
Papermaking Fibre Production 2014 Market Pulp Drivers
RP 56 %
Non-wood pulp 3%
Integr. wood pulp 26 %
Market pulp 15 %
409 million t/a Growth of Asia-Pacific paper
market
Weakening availability of white
recovered paper
Changing fibre furnishes (esp.
tissue)
Shut-down of polluting non-wood
pulp capacity in China
GLOBAL PAPERMAKING FIBRE PRODUCTION
Market pulp accounts for 15% of global papermaking fibre production
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 16
SHARE OF MARKET PULP 2000-2030
The share of market pulp out of total papermaking fibre is forecast to grow from
15% to 17%, but its share out of total wood pulp is expected to grow more steeply,
from 37% to 44% by 2030
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Share of market pulp out
of total papermaking Fiber
Share of market pulp
out of total wood pulps
Forecast
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 17
DEMAND FOR MARKET WOOD PULP BY GRADE 2000-2030
Demand for market wood pulp is expected to grow by 1.9%/a in the long term,
driven by bleached hardwood and softwood kraft pulps
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Million tonnes
Bleached hardwood kraft
Forecast
Bleached softwood kraft
Unbleached kraft
Sulphite
2014-2030:
+21 million tonnes
CAGR: +1.9%/a
Mechanical
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 18
WORLD DEMAND FOR MARKET WOOD PULP
BY REGION 2000-2030
Paper grade market pulp demand is expected to grow by a good 20 million tonnes
during the forecast period, driven by China and the rest of Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Million tonnes
Mature markets
CAGR
-0.6%/a
Emerging markets
CAGR
+3.2%/a
Japan
Rest of World Forecast
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
China
Rest of Asia
Latin America
North America
2014-2030:
+21 million tonnes
CAGR: +1.9%/a
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MARKET PULP DEMAND GROWTH BY REGION 2014-2030
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 19
Global demand for market wood pulp is forecast to grow by 1.9%/a in the long-
term
Rest of Asia Latin America
Eastern Europe
Growth %/a
Middle East
Africa
China
Japan
North America Oceania
Western Europe
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of consumption in 2014 (61 million tonnes), %
Average 1.9%/a
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 20
MARKET WOOD PULP DEMAND – KEY SOURCES OF GROWTH
China is responsible for 63% of the world’s incremental demand during 2014-2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2014 NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
Japan EasternEurope
China Rest ofAsia
LatinAmerica
Others 2030
Million ADt/a
Demand
Decline 2014-2030
Increment 2014-2030
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INDUSTRY STRUCTURE − MARKET BSKP*
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 21
The most modern and largest BSKP mills are in Germany, Chile, Finland and
Russia
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
051015202530
Germany
Technical age, years
Weighted average
Mill capacity, 1 000 t/a
WEAK
STRONG
Weighted average
capacity 531 000 t/a
Weighted average technical
age 22 years
China
Sweden
Japan
France
2015
Chile Finland
USA
Russia
Czech Rep.
Argentina
New Zealand
Canada Austria
Bubble size reflects the
allocated grade capacity
* Including domestic captive capacity
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INDUSTRY STRUCTURE − MARKET BHKP*
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 22
The largest and most modern market BHKP mills are found in Latin America,
Indonesia and China
* Including domestic captive capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
051015202530
China
Chile
Indonesia
Uruguay
Brazil
Technical age, years
Weighted average
Mill capacity, 1 000 t/a
WEAK
STRONG
Weighted average
capacity 1 294 000 t/a
Weighted average
technical age 13 years
Canada Japan
USA
2015
Bubble size reflects the
allocated grade capacity
Finland
Spain
Portugal Sweden
Russia
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APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 23
MAJOR MARKET BSKP/BHKP PROJECTS 2014-2018
Net incremental capacity 11.4 million tonnes1
Company/mill Year BSKP, kt/a BHKP, kt/a Remarks
Suzano, Imperatriz 2014 - 1 500 New mill
Stora Enso/Arauco, Montes del Plata 2014 - 1 300 New mill
Jiangsu Oji, Nantong 2014 - 420 New mill
Others 2014 20 -535
Jari Cellulose, Monte Dourado 2015 - 420 Restart
CMPC, Guaiba 2015 - 1 300 New line
Others 2015 -215 80
Klabin, Ortigueira 2016 400 1 100 New line
Domtar, Ashdown 2016 400 - Conversion to fluff
Oki, Bukit Batu 2016 - 2 000 New mill
JSC Svetlogorsk 2016 300 - New mill
International Paper, Riegelwood 2016 400 - Capacity expansion
Södra, Värö 2016 270 - Capacity expansion
Others 2016 220 115
Metsä Fibre, Äänekoski 2017 670 100 New mill + shut-down
Others 2017 -50 -350
Fibria, Tres Lagoas 2018 - 1 750 New line
SCA, Östrand 2018 470 - New line + shut-down
Others 2018 - 400
TOTAL 2014-2018 2 885 8 500 1 Bleached kraft market pulp excluding dissolving pulps
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 24
MARKET BHKP SUPPLY/DEMAND AND DELIVERY RATE
Delivery rate is at risk of deterioration
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Delivery
Rate
Demand
Supply
Delivery Rate
without exits
Supply without
estimated exits
Million t/a Percent
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SHIFTS IN BHKP SUPPLY – DEVELOPMENT OF SUPPLY*) CURVE
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 25
Flattening and downward-shifting supply curve implies declining long-term trend
price
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
2004
2009
2014
USD/ADt, 2014 price level
Trend price in real
terms
*) Full costs, delivery to North Atlantic ports; capital charges include straight-line depreciation (ROCE 0%)
Cumulative capacity, 1000 ADt/a
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PULP MARKET - KEY MESSAGES
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 26
Mixed messages for market pulp
– Declining demand for graphic paper (+/-)
– Growth of fiber-based packaging and hygiene/tissue (+)
China
– Economic slow-down (-)
– Pulp imports (+)
Investment activity
– Ahead of demand?
Price implications
Structural changes awaited
– Exits
– Cost cutting
FOREST INDUSTRY -
BIOBASED GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
NICHOLAS OKSANEN
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY 28
TOWARDS HIGH CARBON MATERIALS, LOW CARBON ENERGY
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI
130 Mha
of forest land has been lost
since 1990
Reforestation is about ecology, climate
and business
Bioeconomy is about new carbon
materials and bioenergy
CO2: Burning forests emit, growing forests capture it
M = million
Ha = hectares
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
~300 Additional availability
200 25 290
Agriculture
demand Industrial
forestry Bioenergy
Mha
Mha Mha Mha
Biochemical
industry
Deficit Mha
~250 Source: Nilsson (2007)
HOW MUCH LAND IS AVAILABLE?
?
Projected need
twice as much
Resulting
deficit
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 29
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES FROM BIO-BASED SOLUTIONS
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 30
Overcapacity in certain pulp & paper products is pushing to new
innovations
– Instead of traditional writing papers and newsprint, companies are finding new, high-
value uses for wood diversification and strategic changes!
– Waste wood as a power generation fuel Instead of burning everything, create
value out of it!
– More profitable use of biomaterials e.g. advanced packaging, biobased chemicals,
advanced biofuels high-profit products
Oil price level is currently low putting the bio business cases to enormous
pressure
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PÖYRY BIOSPECTRUM OF OPPORTUNITIES
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 31
Across the range, from all feedstocks to all bioproducts
Value added
Feed
sto
ck
Agro
Wood
Waste
Bio-CHP Torrefied pellets Biodiesel Bio-based
intermediates
Bio-based
specialty chemicals
Pellets Ethanol Bio-based platform
chemicals
Bio-based
materials
Advanced biobased
materials from carbon
fibres onwards
Algae
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NEW PRODUCT OPPORTUNITIES: BIO-BASED PRODUCTS
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 32
Wood waste & lignin to energy,
chemicals, e.g. carbon fibre
Nanocellulose to e.g.
packaging, automotive,
cement, aerospace
Hemicellulose to sugars to
biochemicals
Pulp composites and plastics
Bio-based chemicals
from pulp and recovered
paper
Tall oil , fatty acids to
biofuels and chemicals
Products
New
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT OF ETHANOL AND BIODIESEL
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Ethanol
Biodiesel
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 33
Ethanol and Biodiesel show steady growth potential
Million tonnes Billion litres
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024
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IN TOTAL, 64 COUNTRIES HAVE SPECIFIC TARGETS OR
MANDATES FOR TRANSPORTATION BIOFUELS
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 34
Specific mandates
of targets for
ethanol in
transportation fuels
Brazil mandates a
minimum ethanol
content to 27%
USA needs to import 2G
fuel ethanol to meet their
renewable fuel obligation
China aims to set up 10%
biofuel mandate by 2020.
Currently 9 provinces have
E10 mandate.
India has a E10 mandate in
place and a 20% target for
all biofuels by 2017
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GLOBAL DEMAND FOR BIO-BASED CHEMICALS IS DRIVEN
BY BIOPLASTICS
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 35
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2013 2018
Other biobased andnon-biodegradable
Other biodegradables
Starch blends
Bio-PE/PP
PLA and PLA-blends
Bio-PET
Mt
Growth
15%/a
Bio-based chemicals show also steady growth potential
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY 36
WHAT IS WOOD MADE OF?
Plant biomass - the same basic components, in slightly varied proportions.
Wood is attractive industrial assets
Cellulose
40-45 %
Hemicellullose
19-32 %
Lignin
22-31 %
Extractives
2-3.5 %
Cellulose is the most
abundant organic polymer
on earth; strong and
crystalline.
Hemicellulose is a sugar
rich polymer with a random,
amorphous, weak structure.
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
CELLULOSE IS THE MOST ABUNDANT ORGANIC POLYMER ON
EARTH
Cellulose consists of crystalline and amorphous regions. By treating it with strong acid, the
amorphous regions can be broken up
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI
A polysaccharide consisting of a linear chain of several hundred to many
thousands of linked D-glucose units.
Source: UPM Biofibrils – novel bio-based nanomaterial for various industrial applications, EuroNanoForum2013
37
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 38
BIOREFINING OPPORTUNITIES OF SOFTWOOD PULP MILL
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EXAMPLES OF NOVEL BUT COMMERCIAL
BIOREFINING CONCEPTS
As pulp production has become less
integrated to paper and board
production, new biorefining concepts
and technologies have emerged in
search for additional revenues.
The first commercial investments
have focused on reducing fossil
fuel consumption and utilising
sustainable side-streams for
renewable energy production.
Due to the turmoil in energy markets,
the focus is gradually shifting towards
biomaterials and bio-based
chemicals.
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 39
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
40
NANOCELLULOSE
SPCI
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NANOCELLULOSE PROSPECTIVE END-USES
Some of the potential future
application areas of nanocelluloses
include
– paper and board
– composites
– barrier materials
– foams and aerogels
– medical, drug, food and cosmetic
applications
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI
Nanocellulose applications based on patent activity,
2014-2015
Paper coating 8 %
Paper furnish
14 %
Medical, drug
delivery, food &
cosmetics 9 % Films, membranes &
nanocellulose sheets
12 %
Other 28 %
Plastics &
composites 17 %
Drying/redispersion of
dried nano 11 %
Based on a patent analysis carried out by Pöyry
41
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
OVERVIEW OF PLAYERS ACTIVE IN THE FIELD
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 42
MFC NCC
(/MCC)
BNC Both or
not
specified
Canada 2 4 1
USA 5 1 1 3
France 3
UK 2
Switzerland 3
Germany 2 1
Norway 2 1
Sweden 2 1 1
Finland 3 1
South Africa 1
Israel 1
Japan 3 1
MFC
• Microfibrillated cellulose
NFC
• Nanofibrillated cellulose
MCC
• Microcrystalline cellulose
NCC
• Nanocrystalline cellulose
BNC
• Bacterial cellulose
Nanocelluloses are currently mainly in the development stage
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 43
TALL OIL
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IMPORTANCE OF TALL OIL RECOVERY IN A PULP MILL
Several business cases shows that
tall oil business has a good income
Crude tall oil is extracted from
softwood (pine and spruce) in pulp
mills and used e.g. in paint industry,
and further developed to biodiesel
Pöyry’s own HDS® crude tall oil
(CTO) production technology has
been delivered to more than 20
plants
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 44
…THE CHALLENGE OF BIO-BASED OPPORTUNITIES
Paints, coatings,
inks and adhesives
LARGE, RICH AND COMPLEX FIELD OF APPLICATIONS
In applications, the problem is rather the very many potential end uses. With too
much choice, it is hard to pick where to focus.
46
Bio-based plastics
Plasticisers and
additives
Personal care and
detergents
Pharmaceuticals
Solvents and
industrial fluids
Fuels
Other
Dispersants
Binders and adhesives
Platform chemicals
Fine chemicals
Foams, gels and films
Bio
-bas
ed
ch
em
icals
Sugar
Oil & Fats
Lignin Gas
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI
EXAMPLE BIO-BASED CHEMICALS
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY APRIL 28, 2016
SPCI 47
Current product portfolio (growth vs. cash flow)?
Market demand for capacity increase?
Concrete market opportunities and pricing mechanisms?
Robust sales plan with thorough understanding of client needs
Bottlenecks for capacity increase in existing assets?
Role of new bioproducts in both debottlenecking and rebuild needs
(new revenue streams but also new CAPEX and OPEX items)?
Level of integration, potential partnering?
Strategic position in the new value chains?
Pulp and paper
markets
Expansion
potential
Business
concept
Bioproduct markets
and sales plan
FROM MILLS TO BIOREFINERIES?
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
KEY MESSAGES
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 48
Traditional forest Industry companies have great opportunities in the new bio
products
There needs to be always a valid business case
Current oil price sets a short slow down in the investment but the long term
perspectives with the increasing oil price are good
Growth opportunities in biofuels and bio chemicals are extensive with the
various raw materials ending up to various end products
There are many examples of running bio mills which start setting the scene
for the industry
Current challenge is also the variety of end products with the low ‘tonnage’
amount which would drive the industry rapidly further in building up modern
biorefineries
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PÖYRY BIO-BASED SOLUTIONS – AT YOUR SERVICE
APRIL 28, 2016 SPCI 49
www.poyry.com
Consulting. Engineering. Projects. Operation.