Future of Real Estate - commercial development, retail and construction - keynote speaker

Dr  Patrick  Dixon    Chairman  Global  Change  Ltd

Sustainable  Real  Estate

Sustainable real estate means that we have to look

far into the future

Wild  Cards:  Risk  Management

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Big strategies often overtaken by eventsWorld can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

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£  375bn

$2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month

AGILITYmeans  more  than  

one  strategy  or  future  for  every  building

• Global economy never stopped growing

• Impact on real estate in London / UK

WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)

US  GDP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  

>40%  WDP  by  2015� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity

300 million move to cities in China and475 million to cities in Africa by 2030

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child

1  week                              every  4

Future of real estate is about

EMOTION

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Future  of  Offices  Breathing  same  air

People love Cities

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Cities keep crowds together so cities help protect countryside

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Commute for Community

TeleworkingOnly 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)

Tele-­‐presence  20%  growth  pa      $4.5  billion  

 But  video  is  unpopular  at  work

Future  of  Retail  

Shopping  Malls  Leisure  +  Experience

Local  Convenience  

Boom  

70%  customers  live  only  600  metres  away

FusionOn-­‐Off  line

Global  e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  201412%  of  all  retail  is  online  in  UK

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Mobile RetailMobile influences $29bn of retail sales in UK50% of all UK online sales are using mobile

Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU

1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com  items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)

Gold  standard:10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery

10am orders for 3pm Delivery

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3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for

deliveries - help for local stores

Energy  impact  on  real  estate

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs$468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supplyUp from 60 years in 5 years

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Boom

Bust

5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaPs  wind  Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China

57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total power useQUEBEC  from  ARIZONAMOSCOW  from  SAHARA

Solar  cell  genera\on  cost  parity  

AVracWve  Solar  cell  cladding  on  every  building  

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total global power usePower Moscow from Libyan Desert

“40%  EU  power  =  wind  by  2050”Surplus  wind  to  hydrogen  -­‐  to  methane  ?  

Australia  Power  Shortage

• 10%  capacity  used  4  days  a  year•Average  $50  to  peak  at  $10,000  per  MWhr  

Germany  Power  Surplus

• In  June  2013• Electricity  prices  became  negaVve  • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!

Managing  peak  demand�AutomaVc  meter  readings�Variable  pricing�Time  and  weather  sensiVve  discounVng

Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week

Power  Storage  

Electric  Cars�>10%  smallest  cars  electric  cars  within  10  years  

�Increase  night  Vme  power  consumpVon  by  20%

�Donate  power  at  peak  Vmes  to  balance  grid

•Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids

• 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project

•China planning to power Moscow

Low  energy  streetlights

�Cost  replacing  all  120  m  EU  streetlights  £300bn  saving  £50bn  a  year

�Market  £15bn  pa  over  15  years�4  year  payback

Smart  heaJng  or  cooling  Save  30-­‐50%  energy  -­‐  payback  4  years    

• 70% new buildings in Sweden• 45% new buildings in New Zealand• Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand

Heat Pumps save up to 50%

   Eat  or  be  Eaten  !Living  unWl  next  merger  –  or  de-­‐merger

E-­‐Crete

�Concrete  industry  =  5-­‐7%  global  CO2�Geoplymers  such  as  E-­‐crete  (power  staVon  ash)�Jannie  Van  Deventer,  University  of  Melbourne,  Zeobond  

�50%  world’s  concrete  producVon  saves  1bn  tons  C02  /10  years  in  real  estate  construcVon

Make  Buildings  Last 30%  +  of  lifeVme  energy  use  =  build  and  demolish

Building a Better WorldSustainable Real Estate Industry is Vital to Future

Build in qualityFlexible design

Better experienceEnhance community

Less energy50 year timescale

Dr  Patrick  Dixon    Chairman  Global  Change  Ltd

Sustainable  Real  Estate

Keynote  Slides5  million  video  viewsGlobalChange.com