Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Future of Global Health and Medical Technology 2020-2030
Apr 21, 2017
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Future of Global Health and
Medical Technology 2020-2030
Every health trend will
impact all other health trends
Cloud
Nanotech
Mobile
BiotechGenes +
Cells
Digital Connect
Atoms
Converging - Combinations
Expect convergence and compe66on between pharma,
biotech and medtech in finding answers to major condi6ons
ONE WORD will drive the
future of health
The future is aboutEMOTION
Demographics will be greatest predictor of
future demand
1 billion children alive today
Growth in global health spend will be driven by growth of
middle class in emerging na6ons
IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
>40% WDP by 2015
300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
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Megacities mean greater risks of viral epidemics like Ebola with global impact
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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
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Europe Dying !
4 couples to produce single great-grand child !
S Korea children per couple fell from 6 to 1.2 - 1950-2000
Title Text Body Level One
Body Level Two
Body Level Three
Body Level Four
Body Level Five
>65% of health spend will be on people
>65 years old
Chronic Conditions Multiple Needs
100 million Americans have chronic conditions
80% of health spending
88% of all prescriptions
70% of physician visits
66% Medicare cost = people with 5+ conditions
Almost all caused by people getting older
Expect major global demand for preven6on and treatment for cancer, heart,
brain, chronic wounds, infec6ons, infer6lity, arthri6s and diabetes
Pharma Companies
WILL find new blockbusters e.g. Alzheimers / Obesity
Alzheimers commonest cause of death in UK women
2010-2050 demen6a
1 in 3 babies in New York will develop adult-type diabetes - cost $100bn a year
Imaging and Diagnos6cs will be dominated by 3D and HD
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Cloud Processing
Positron emission tomography
Magnetic nuclear resonance
Imaging and Robotics
Food moth larva silk gland !
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Fat cells Cuticular
Mouse Retina
Micro-surgery will transform hospital care
$75bn endoscopy market by 2022 ($23bn 2010)
125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US
Length of hospital stay will fall rapidly
Virtual Medicine
Wearable Health Devices will be almost
universal
Home Tele-Monitoring
Most pa6ents will know more
than their physicians about their condi6on
Search: know more than your doctor
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Home Care will grow very fast especially for old people
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Diabetes, congestive heart failure, obstructive pulmonary
2.2 million at home
> $22bn by 2015
Mobile telephony
Biotech will drive most pharma
innova6on
coatings and robots
Build Nanotech Robots as Biotech Therapies
Adenovirus contains Math1 gene
Turns young ear cells into hair cells
Inject virus particles into inner ear
New hair cells grow near Organ of
Corti
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Research in Guinea Pigs
Cure for Deafness ?
Confidential
HSV1 causes cold sores. When engineered as Seprehvir (HSV-1716), it is harmless to healthy @ssue.
Oncolytic viruses Infect and kill cancer tumour cells No damage to healthy tissue Evidence of impact in clinical trials Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy
Viruses to cure cancer
Electronic Medical Records will mean be\er decisions using Big Data
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Product scanning means safety !
Computer-aided decisions save lives and time
Ottawa Hospital, Ontario - 3000 ipads Mayo Clinic - 2000 ipads !
Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes That's a data explosion of 44x in
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Big Data
Gene screening will dominate
disease preven6on
Genetic Prophecy
Genes for old age, speech, memory, criminality, depression, obesity and stable relationships
Fluidics
Biochemistry
Semiconductors
Genetics
Mathematics
Immunology
Robotics
Read genome in 2 hours for $5,000
Organ Repair will be rou6ne using own cells
Stem Cells
Pigs teeth grown inside rats
Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue
Grow New Teeth
Repair of heart, retina, brain or spinal cord
using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain
Competition in spinal cord damage from chips implanted
into brain
New insulin cells in capsules to protect from immune system
Repair Pancreas to treat diabetes
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Competition from implanted devices containing insulin
Print Elastomere
We can print layers of living cells....
Print New Skin (Lexmar)
Life expectancy in most na6ons will increase by far
more than 1 week every month
Performance
Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement
Want to look better
may be
Want to think better......
20% students in US use memory-enhancing drugs to pass their exams
An6-Ageing will be a global
obsession - with rapid progress
Can we stop ageing ?
7 mechanisms of ageing in animal and human cells
Cell loss or atrophy without replacement
Oncogenic nuclear muta6ons and epimuta6ons
Mitochondrial muta6ons
Cell senescence (death resistant)
Intra-cellular junk
Extra-cellular junk (affects cells)
Random extra-cellular cross-linking
Worn out Mitochondria Energy Boost
R-alpha-lipoic acid
Acetyl-L-carnitine
Adenovirus
Infected mouse hair cells
Permanent colour change
Permanent Hair Colour
Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of
hardened arteries and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales?
Low blood pressure and total body lift !
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Alteon
Monkeys on diet live longer After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories
Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
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Slow or no ageing is a reality
Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales !
No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years
Some animals do not seem to age in normal way
Many health costs will fall while total
spending will rise
Faster healing
Negative Pressure Healing
Adenoviral human
telomerase reverse
transcriptase
Funding of Health Care will be sensi6ve poli6cal issue
Patent Expiry
3000 Canadian Pharma Patents 2003-11
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Ra6oning of health care will
be seen in every na6on
Irrational Rationing
Rationing all government Health competes with .... Specialties compete Diseases / Patient groups Treatment methods Greatest impact for greatest number
Competition
Transurethral resection Laser destruction Microwave destruction Heat destruction Da Vinci robot
Competition
Patient campaigns / Google Legal / IT linked decisions Financial incentives Patient experience /quality life Local skills / experience Appropriate infrastructure
Impact on rationing
Expect rapid growth globally in private medical care, health
insurance and medical tourism
Expect many new ethical challenges e.g. beginning and end of life, data privacy, who owns genes, gene6c
discrimina6on
One of greatest ethical challenges will be improving access to health care in poorest na6ons
1 in 12 in Liberia UNICEF
1 in 10 women die in childbirth in some parts of Northern Mozambique
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1.8 million small children die every year because of dirty water supplies
In a global village, every local health problem can have a global impact - so expect more global health initiatives
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Crea6ng a Be\er World
Expect rapid innova6on in medical technology with many startups and health products launched by technology giants -
with major investment in S Korea
globalchange.com - slides and videos
Future of Health Care