The Future of Ci-es Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around The World 2015/16
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The Future of Ci-es Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around The World 2015/16
Context An ini0al perspec0ve on the Future of Ci0es kicked off the Future Agenda global discussions and is being steadily built on via mul0ple workshops
around the world across all five con0nents adding new views into the mix.
Ini0al Perspec0ve Q4 2014
2015 Discussions Q1/3 2015
Insight Synthesis Q4 2015
Further Discussions
2016
Insights to Date To date we have gained views from many discussions around the world.
These have included several events focused on the topic of ci0es which have taken place in Singapore, Dubai, Beirut, Delhi, London and Wellington.
Mass Urbanisa-on By 2050 over 70% of people will live in a city.
The growth of mega-‐ci0es is crea0ng a new wave of urbanisa0on. Such mass urbanisa0on requires us to reconsider how we design ci0es.
Consuming Ci-es Ci0es consume 75% of the world’s natural resources, and produce more than
60% of GHG emissions. As a result, while the economic power of ci0es con0nues to grow, they remain vulnerable to the products of their success.
Air Quality Rising air pollu0on in many ci0es is killing people.
Air quality is viewed as the topic for changing mind-‐sets and policies across health, energy, transporta0on and urban design.
Intra City Collabora-on Increasing compe00on between ci0es extends beyond na0onal borders and causes change. Ci0es compete to a\ract the best but also collaborate to avoid the downside of success – over-‐crowding, under-‐resourcing and pollu0on.
Built-‐in Flexibility The path to a connected, accessible and distributed infrastructure is
complex, costly and risky. This includes upgrading systems to make them more open and alloca0ng necessary resources for on-‐going maintenance.
Accelera-ng Displacement Climate change, conflict, resource shortages, inequality and inac0on from poli0cal elites trigger unprecedented migra0on to the North.
Over the next 50 years, as many as 1 billion people could be on the move.
Ci-zen-‐Centric Ci-es Successful ci0es will be designed around the needs and desires
of increasingly empowered ci0zens who expect personalized services from all organisa0ons that serve them.
Flooded Ci-es The vast majority of our ci0es are not prepared for flooding.
Many districts and households can no longer get flood insurance and are in jeopardy. It’s going to get worse before it gets be\er.
Caring for Those LeD Behind While significant progress has been made, millions of people con0nue to be lec behind from mainstream progress -‐ especially the young,
the poor and those who are disadvantaged.
Floa-ng Ci-es? Climate change poses a worrying challenge for ci0es. Already 50% of ci0es are dealing with its effects, and nearly all are at risk. Over 90% of all urban
areas are coastal, pueng most ci0es on earth at risk of flooding.
Adap-ng for Ageing Popula-ons In developed countries, 80% of older people will live in ci0es by 2050, while
ci0es in developing countries will house 25% of the older popula0on. Planners are adap0ng urban environments to support healthy ageing of popula0ons.
Crea-ve Hubs Ci0es have a long history of fostering social and pragma0c innova0on. New technology has enabled ci0es to evolve and reinvent themselves in the face of huge social, environmental and technological upheaval.
Living Ci-es As technology becomes more sophis0cated, ci0es focus on designing places
that address health and environmental impacts. This results in more compact spaces that are more appealing to poten0al residents.
Digital Engagement Ci0es are using digital plagorms to be\er plan for the future and encourage public engagement. Using new technology and big data to support strategic planning of a city can help improve public engagement with the process.
New Models and Measures We need measures to help technology to play a role across boundaries.
Globally, a strong cultural shic will be required, moving away from business-‐as-‐usual to models that enable economies to thrive within resource constraints.
People-‐Powered Planning In an era where the public voice is easier to access and harder to suppress, it becomes harder to generate support for new ini0a0ves without taking public views into account. Leaders will need to maintain public and poli0cal support.
Las-ng Design We need a shic toward a circular economy that is restora0ve, both naturally
and technically. Buildings have to be built to an0cipate future change, rather than using design standards based on exis0ng condi0ons.
Healthy Ci-es Approaches that encourage healthier urban dwellers will improve design of ci0es with reduced healthcare costs, increased produc0vity, more community resilience, improved life expectancy and fewer demands on health services.
Coopera-on Across Boundaries Ci0es need more coopera0ve government working across
systems and boundaries. This includes a focus on long-‐term benefits to society, par0cularly with regard to planning and investment.
Dense Ci-es As urban migra0on increases, more efficient, densely populated ci0es like
Paris and Hong Kong are the blueprints for sustainable places to live instead of distributed sprawls such as Los Angeles and Mexico City.
Public-‐Private City Partnerships To address major urban challenges, as shown by Medellin in Colombia,
governments increasingly openly collaborate with business to improve the ins0tu0onal fabric of ci0es as well as core infrastructure.
Safe Ci-es Urban dwellers expect their ci0es to be secure. Increased monitoring of human behaviour and surveillance improves the sense of physical security but at the cost of increased fears over personal data and loss of privacy.
Pop-‐up Economies Crowd-‐sourcing will enable ‘instant economies’ where communi0es pool
resources and so reduce the need for government involvement. The downside is that communi0es create their own iden0ty making “them and us” obvious.
Public Spaces Governments are pressured to ensure that public spaces are created and retained – Places where people can meet, congregate, relax, even
where land is valuable and constrained, are prized focal points for society.
Satellite Ci-es The growth of satellite ci0es and networks of midi-‐ci0es in many regions is
seen as a preferred route to more mega-‐city development. Connected by fast infrastructure, these act collec0vely economically but in a sustainable manner.
Waste Management As ci0es become ever more densely populated, new approaches to waste management will be introduced. Especially in fast-‐growing mega-‐ci0es, waste is seen as a resource and a source of energy.
Rural Upgrade We will see some regions give less focus to ci0es and place more emphasis on upgrading rural infrastructure and connec0vity. This will help slow the
push of migra0on and urbanisa0on and rejuvenate life in villages.
Rebalancing the Transport Mix Increased conges0on and growing popula0ons leads to the reintroduc0on of public transport systems into ci0es where the car has become dominant. Improving health, produc0vity and overall mobility are seen as priori0es.
Cross Society Leadership In ci0es where local differences have led to inac0on and regression, greater efforts are made by the next genera0on to drive progress, cross divides and
increase collabora0on around common needs for more livable ci0es.
Walkable Ci-es Compact spaces are made more appealing to urban dwellers with a focus
on health, environment and sustainability. ‘Work, live, play’ clusters in ci0es allow residents to access different ac0vi0es all embedded in one area.
Inclusive Design Tradi0onal forms of lifestyle, employment and educa0on are replaced.
Seeing 0me as a finite resource means that ci0es are be\er connected and spaces are be\er integrated to provide a more equitable arrangement for all.
Wellness Sanctuaries Ci0es are not just measured by their output but by the longevity and
happiness of city dwellers. Reconnec0ng people with each other and their city brings increased access to healthcare, green spaces and increased mobility.
Local Food Ci0es are more ‘edible’. Increased transparency around food availability and land use causes ci0es to incorporate more urban farming spaces. Innova0ve
produc0ve systems allow residents be\er access to local, fresh food.
Responsibili-es Beyond City Limits Ci0es recognise that they can not exist without the de-‐urbanised world. Hong Kong, for example, imports 90% of its food. Ci0es have responsibility beyond their borders and are more involved in surrounding and global ecosystems.
Poli-cal Construct of Ci-es Ci0es are increasingly designed to reflect a par0cipatory ci0zenship. The rising power of ci0zens and brands means that governments must cooperate with the private sector and the mass to address urban development challenges.
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