Superfast network rollout: the future of wireline and wireless Frédéric PUJOL, Director of the Wireless Business Unit, IDATE Valérie CHAILLOU, Director of Studies, Co-head of the FTTx practice, IDATE 19 November 2014 Executive Seminar: Future Networks
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Superfast network rollout: the
future of wireline and wireless
Frédéric PUJOL, Director of the Wireless Business Unit,
IDATE
Valérie CHAILLOU, Director of Studies, Co-head of the FTTx
practice, IDATE19 November 2014
Executive Seminar: Future Networks
FTTH/B dominates SuperFast Broadband worldwide
2
Forecasts for FTTH/B subscribers, 2013-2018 (Number of subscribers)
21%17% 16%
17%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
100
200
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mill
ion
FTTH/B subs. % of growth
Forecast for broadband subscribers worldwide and part of FTTH/B subscribers
17%20% 22%
25%28% 29%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mill
ion
Total BB world (million) % of FTTH/B subscribers
Source: IDATE, World FTTx market, June 2014
Source: IDATE, World FTTx market, June 2014
SuperFast Broadband technology
market share at end 2013
(in % of subscribers per technology)
Source: IDATE, World FTTx market, June 2014
Geographical snapshot of FTTx access solutions
3
Source: IDATE, World FTTx market, June 2014
Regional breakdown of FTTx architectures, December 2013
FTTH/B coverage will continue to increase significantly over the next 5 years, from more than 363 million
homes passed to nearly 632 million homes passed at the end of 2018.
The expansion of FTTH/B coverage will benefit residential users’ fixed access, and bolster service ubiquity
thanks to wireless networks.
Fibre coverage
4
0
100
200
300
400
500
Middle East &Africa
Latin America NorthAmerica
Europe Asia
Millio
n
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
FTTH/B coverage forecasts
Source: IDATE, World FTTx market, June 2014
Choice of backhauling technology depends on
many criteria
LTE/LTE-A need fibre or high capacity microwave links
Backhauling often represents 30% of total radio access
costs
Fibre backhaul common for mobile carriers
5
Re-use of the FTTH network for mobile backhaul
Source: Ericsson
The Orange use case
Source: Orange
Fibre widely used for mobile backhauling
in Asia (GPON) and in dense areas
DT GER: 95% of backhauling in fibre (2012)
World LTE market: Top 10 countries in terms of subsribers
6
Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, June 2014
100% in South Korea, Sweden and HK, and expected to reach almost 100% very soon in the USA, Japan and HongKong due to aggressive rollouts by Verizon Wireless, NTT DOCOMO and all 3 HK players.
European countries still lagging behind, but caught up in early 2014 thanks to the 800 MHz band
>70% in Germany (VOD, DT), by EE in the UK
69% by Orange FR at July 2014
LTE coverage
7
100% by the three
telcos by mid-2012
DoCoMo:100% expected
end March 2015
Softbank: 99% (Dec. 2013)
eMobile: est. 80% (end
2013)
VW: >97% (June 2014)
AT&T: 92% (June 2014)
Sourc
e:
Pla
yers
’
info
rmatio
n c
olle
cte
d b
y
AR
CE
P, July
2014
Purp
le:
% o
f P
op,
Gre
en:
% o
f te
rritory
Wireless access combines cellular and Wi-FiOffloading
HotSpot 2.0/Passpoint facilitates hotspots identification & authentication
Fixed Services/Usage: towards higher data ratesFibre offers: new 1 Gbps plans rolled out in the past few months
Increasing uplink data rate
Video, TV, OTT: more triple-play offers, quad-play for differentiation
Fixed and mobile complementarityLTE will become one of the top clients for fibre
Integrated operators to lead the way in developed countries. We see very little room for puremobile players in these countries in 2020
Key takeaways for superfast networks
8
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