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Future Fuel Outlook Service Web Conference · 2020. 1. 23. · Patented micro-channel Fischer Tropsch reactor and catalyst. 5. Velocys proprietary technology and company • Velocys’

Feb 24, 2021

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  • Future Fuel Outlook ServiceWeb Conference

    Future Fuels for Shipping January 2020

  • Services Offered

    Fueling the Future Blog & Podcast (Free)

    Future Fuels Outlook Service

    Individual Consulting (Retainer, Projects)

    What Is Future Fuel Strategies?A consultancy that takes a 360° view of future fuels issues, trends and developments

    Learn more at www.futurefuelstrategies.com

  • • Responsible for global business development, sales, marketing, product line management and after-sales service activities in the Company’s key Power Products markets of Heavy Duty Motive, Material Handling and Back-up Power

    Rob CampbellChief Commercial OfficerBallard Power Systems

    • Responsible for the commercial, financial and corporate development of the Altalto waste-to-jet-fuel project in the UK and for UK government relations and communications

    Neville HargreavesVP, Waste to FuelsVelocys

    Our Speakers Today

  • Global Freight Demand to Triple between 2015-2050More than 75% of all freight carried by ships by 2050

  • Spiraling GHGs Drove Initial StrategyIf not checked, will grow 250% by 2050; greatest increases from Asia and Africa

    • Without additional policy measures, carbon emissions from global shipping are projected to reach approximately 1,090 million tons by 2035. This would represent a 23% growth of emissions by 2035 compared to 2015.

    • Historical emissions from international maritime transport increased by 80% or 3.0% per year from 1990 to 2010.

  • What Are the Fuel Options under Consideration?Lloyd’s Register considered several in a study released last year

    Pathways considered included (1) renewable electricity-based marine fuels in the form of hydrogen, ammonia, e-methanol, e-gas oil and electricity for use in batteries; (2) bioenergy; (3) an equal mix of the two which would mean a ramp-up of renewable electricity-based marine fuels and bio-based fuels. However, alongside these fuels, also hydrogen and ammonia produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS) gradually enter the fuel mix

  • BALLARD.COM 1 BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World®

    Future Fuels For

    Shipping - Hydrogen

    and Fuel Cells

    By: Rob Campbell

    Date: January 23, 2020

  • BALLARD.COM 2 Power to change the world®

    Key Questions

    •Policy changes and drivers

    •Why marine?

    •How real is hydrogen and fuel cells?

    •How close?

    • Is green hydrogen a reality?

  • BALLARD.COM 3 Power to change the world®

    Our World Sees the Need for Change

  • BALLARD.COM 4 Power to change the world®

    Governments and Industry are

    Responding as Never Before

    2019 Mega Trends

    • Acceleration of CO2 reduction plans

    • Green hydrogen emerges as a viable option

    • Fuel cell technology + green hydrogen now recognized as critical to meeting CO2

    and pollution targets

    • Sustainability sector investment is significantly increasing

  • BALLARD.COM 5 Power to change the world®

    Marine is No Exception

    Major Policy Developments

    • IMO phasing-out GHG:

    ↓50% by 2050, zero-emission by 2099

    • Europe EMSA to cut CO2 emissions by 50% (2050)

    • Norway is protecting fjords:

    Zero Emission by 2026

    • POLA/POLB Clean Air Action Plan

    • US EPA in Ports and Affected Communities

    • Alaska Visible Emission Standards

  • BALLARD.COM 6 BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 6

    Why Fuel Cells for

    Zero-Emission Marine

    Applications Scalable from 200kW to MWs

    Distributed power solution

    Reliable DC power generator

    Long range and quick refueling

    No noise, no vibration, no local or

    global emissions

  • BALLARD.COM 7 Power to change the world®

    Key Benefits of Fuel Cell Technology

    for Marine Transport

    • Fuel cells will play a key role in helping marine industries address

    greenhouse gas emissions on the water, and in ports.

  • BALLARD.COM 8 BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 8

    Centralized hydrogen

    infrastructure at

    ports can fuel many

    applications Vessels

    Onshore power

    Cargo handling equipment

    Drayage trucks

  • BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 9

    Yet, internal combustion engines have been the dominate form of

    propulsion for the last century and this century so far.

    Fuel Cell Technology Pre-dates

    Internal Combustion Engines

    1860 – introduction of the

    internal combustion engine

    1800 1900 1850

    1839 - invention of the fuel cell by

    William Grove

  • BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 10

    Early Motive Fuel Cell Applications

  • BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 11

    Fuel Cell Technology is Ready for

    Scale: Proven, Safe and Reliable

  • BALLARD.COM 12 Power to change the world®

    2019 Mega Trends: H2 Roadmaps

  • BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 13

    IEA Report: The Future of Hydrogen

    • The time is right to tap into hydrogen’s potential to play a

    key role in a clean, secure and affordable energy future.

    • Hydrogen can help tackle various critical energy

    challenges.

    • Hydrogen is versatile.

    • Hydrogen can enable renewables to provide an even

    greater contribution

    • There have been false starts for hydrogen in the past;

    this time could be different.

    • Hydrogen can be used much more widely

    • However, clean, widespread use of hydrogen in global

    energy transitions faces several challenges. (Currently

    mostly carbon based, infrastructure needed, ongoing

    regulatory effort…)

  • BALLARD.COM 14 Power to change the world®

    $6.7 Billion

    Investment

    Major Investments and Partnerships

    Now Accelerating

  • BALLARD.COM 15 Power to change the world®

    2019 Mega Trends: Investments

    • Aug 1st: Germany turns to H2 in quest for

    clean energy economy

    • Sept 20th: €60 Billion Climate Change

    Package announced by Germany

    • Nov. 14th: EIB Announcement to stop

    funding fossil projects

    • Dec 5th: Hydrogen Council and EIB Advisory

    Services

    • Dec 11th: EU announces Moon Shot

    Moment regarding new climate change

    policies

    • January 14th: Blackrock Larry Fink Letter to

    Investors “Climate Risk is Investment Risk”

  • BALLARD.COM 16 Power to change the world®

    2019 Mega Trends: Cost Reductions

    • January 7th: Ballard Deloitte White Paper: Fueling the Future of Mobility

    • January 20th: Hydrogen Council White Paper-Path to Hydrogen Competitiveness

  • BALLARD.COM 17 Power to change the world®

    How Close?

    • Ballard is already engaged and mobilizing for the marine market:

    Ballard Marine Center of Excellence formed in Denmark

    Major projects and contracts underway

    • Other fuel cell markets are moving:

    Buses, Trucks, Trains, Forklifts, Back-up Power, Power Generation, Cold Ironing/Shore

    Power….

    • This decade will see major scale-up based on point to point fueling

    applications-ferries, barges, tugs, port equipment, service ships and….

    Larger vessel demonstrations based on hydrogen availability

  • BALLARD.COM 18 Power to change the world®

    How Close?

    December 11th, 2019:

    Kawasaki launches first LH2

    carrier vessel

  • BALLARD.COM 19 Power to change the world®

    The Ballard Fleet in Development

    400 kW

    400 kW

    600 kW

    200 kW 300 kW 600 kW

  • BALLARD.COM 20

    Power to Change the World®

    Marine Industry Leaders Working

    with Ballard

    Through active participation to a number of marine demonstration projects,

    Ballard is developing a unique expertise and strong partnerships with industry

    leaders and stakeholders.

  • BALLARD.COM 21 BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 21

    Hydrogen is a

    clean fuel

    High energy density clean fuel

    Supplied as compressed gas or

    liquid

    Can also be produced at port

    Growing supply chain

  • BALLARD.COM 22

    Power to Change the World®

    Hydrogen is a Safe, Flexible,

    Low Carbon Fuel

    Hydrogen is very light and buoyant –

    extremely fast dispersion, rapidly

    dropping below flammability limit with

    much less explosive energy than

    other fuels

    Hydrogen is a flexible energy carrier

    with large storage capacity

    Hydrogen is produced from

    renewable wind and solar

    Or by conversion of bio wastes

    Hydrogen is also available as a by-

    product of some industrial processes

    and from natural gas reformation.

  • BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 23

    Hydrogen is the

    Most Abundant

    Element in the

    Universe.

  • BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 24

    Hydrogen is the

    energy carrier that

    enables energy

    sector coupling for

    a sustainable

    future.

  • BALLARD.COM 25 BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 25

    Renewable hydrogen

    and fuel cell

    technology will

    deliver affordable

    zero emission

    mobility.

  • BALLARD.COM 26 Power to change the world®

    Falling Cost of Renewables

  • BALLARD.COM 27 Power to change the world®

    2019 Mega Trends: Green H2

    • August 20th: Bloomberg New Energy: Costs of H2 to drop 80% by 2039

    • October 14th: Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Day-Air Liquide announces $150 million new

    green LH2 facility in USA (Guarantee of Origin platform)

    • November 13th: Air Liquide, the Durance, Luberon, Verdon urban area (DLVA) and

    ENGIE are signing a cooperation agreement to develop the “HyGreen Provence” project

    which aims at producing, storing and distributing green hydrogen.

  • BALLARD.COM 28 BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 28

    Ongoing Work

    Product certification for marine

    environment

    Hydrogen availability (including

    LH2) at ports

    Hydrogen on board storage

    (internal vs external bunkering)

    Hydrogen safety and refueling

    processes

  • BALLARD.COM 29 BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 29

    Fuel cell technology

    can deliver

    zero-emission large

    scale marine

    propulsion

  • BALLARD.COM 30 BALLARD.COM Power to Change the World® 30

    Hydrogen is a

    necessary, safe and

    effective power

    solution for zero-

    emission marine

    applications.

  • BALLARD.COM 31

    Power to Change the World®

    We deliver fuel cell power for a sustainable planet.

  • Future Fuels for ShippingSustainable hydrocarbon fuels

    23rd January 2020

  • After IMO 2020, decarbonization

    2

    Another storm coming

  • “The future is already here, it’s just unevenly

    distributed.” Our Mission:

    To help reduce the environmental footprint of aviation and heavy goods transport through a proven and reliable supply of sustainable fuels

    3

  • 4

    Fischer Tropsch (FT) route to sustainable fuels

    Diesel for marine

    • Can produce carbon negative fuels

    • Large sustainable feedstock supply

    • Improved exhaust emissions

    • Drop in – no change to engines

  • Patented micro-channel Fischer Tropsch reactor and catalyst

    5

    Velocys proprietary technology and company

    • Velocys’ patented FT process made commercially viable at target scale using micro-channel reactors

    • Combined with other proven technologies for end-to-end process producing drop-in fuels

    • Expert team with deep experience of designing, commissioning and operating synthetic fuel facilities

    • Headquartered in Oxford UK with facilities in Columbus, Ohio and Houston, Texas

    • Traded on AIM index (London Stock Exchange)

    Velocys commercial FT reactor

  • 18 years of experience across multiple scales

    6

    Velocys

    Overview► Over 18 years of design, commissioning, start-up and support

    experience at various scales and facilities across the world► Extensive lessons learned, captured and implemented into

    future projects

    We have over 18 years experience in developing and deploying XTL projectsExperience

    Our technology has been operated at laboratory, pilot, demonstration and commercial scale

    Scale

    Velocys FT technology has operated on syngas derived from natural gas, landfill gas, coal and biomass

    Feedstock

    Velocys core personnel have been onsite for commissioning, startup and operation at all scales

    Presence

    Over 18 years, more than $100mn committed:► $15mn spent on catalyst development► >$25mn spent on catalyst testing► >$15mn spent on mechanical development► >$15mn spent on piloting operation► >$10mn spent on field demonstrations► >$25mn spent on supporting commercial

    demonstration

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Laboratory

    PILOT PLANT

    IDU

    ENVIA

    2019

    BTL

  • ENVIA

    7

    Completed demonstration at commercial scale

    • Landfill gas and natural gas feedstock

    • 5,000+ hours of cumulative operation across 2 commercial-scale FT reactors

    • 420k gallons of finished fuel and wax delivered

    • Produced and sold first Q-RINS

    • Culmination of 18 years of development and testing

    Oklahoma, 2017-18: Commercial scale Velocys FT demonstration completed

  • 8

    Lead client: Red Rock Biofuels

    • Commercial biomass-to-fuels project in Lakeview, Oregon. Broke ground July 2018

    • Velocys licensing FT technology, supplying reactors and catalyst‒ Reactor manufacturing in

    progress and due for delivery in Q1/Q2 2020

    • Plant expected to be operational in 2020

    • Expected output: 15mm gallons/year of renewable fuels

  • Velocys solution

  • 10

    Municipal Solid Waste

    Significant volumes of residual waste unsuitable for recycling

    Avoid costly disposalDiverts waste from landfills

    Gate fees

    Two abundant feedstocks

    Woody biomass

    Large volumesRe-energize forestry

    Leverage existing infrastructureCompliant with Roundtable for

    Sustainable Biomaterials protocol

  • All technology steps demonstrated at commercial scale

    11

    Conversion process

    Chemically react the syngas to form long

    chain hydrocarbons

    Chemically cut the long

    hydrocarbons to sustainable

    fuels

    HydrocrackerFischer Tropsch

    Synthesis

    Syngas clean-up

    Gasifier

    Waste Syngas Clean syngas FT product Fuels

    Physically and chemically

    remove impurities from the syngas

    Thermally and chemically break the

    material into its component

    parts to produce syngas

    Physical preparation of the feedstock,

    removal of remaining

    recyclables

    Woody biomass

  • Negative Carbon Intensity (CI)

    Agreement with Occidental Petroleum for CO2 capture and sequestration materially lowers the CI, from an already low number, and further increases LCFS revenuesCCUS: Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage/Sequestration

    *

    12

    89

    29

    -125

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    California baseline Bayou Fuels withoutCCUS

    Bayou Fuels withCCUS

    gCO

    2e/M

    J

    (net greenhouse gases (CO2 equivalent) per unit of energy)

    240% reduction

  • • Distillate fuels (jet, diesel, gas oil) + naphtha— Approved for aviation

    use at up to 50%— Can be used directly as

    diesel or blended

    • No changes to engines or infrastructure needed

    • Up to 90% reduction in particulate matter (soot)

    • >70 cetane

    • Zero sulfur

    13

    Cleaner burning fuels that can be used immediately

    Diesel made using Velocys process Regular diesel

  • 14

    Significant reductions in particulates and sulfur

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    NOx Unburnt hydrocarbons CO Particulate matter SOx

    Max

    em

    issi

    ons

    redu

    ctio

    ns fo

    r nea

    t FT

    fuel

    as

    % o

    f co

    nven

    tiona

    l jet

    fuel

    Reduced emissions of key pollutants

    Anderson, B. E. et. al. (February 2011), Alternative Aviation Fuel Experiment (AAFEX), NASA Langley Research Center.

  • 15

    Velocys fuels meet requirements for drop-in

    • Representative fuels were made from local feedstock, upgraded, and analyzed by Southwest Research Institute

    • Meets all requirements and regulations to be sold in the US and generate Federal and State credits— Qualifies for cellulosic RINs under the RFS (D3 and D7) and credits under the

    LCFS— Diesel complies with ASTM D975, naphtha as a blend into ASTM D4814, and

    Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (SPK) with ASTM D7566• On-highway fuels certified under Part 79 of EPA’s fuels regulations• Products expected to qualify as Development Fuels under Renewable

    Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO) in the UK • Drop-in ready

    — Diesel no blend restriction— SPK blend up to 50% in Jet A1 (ASTM approved)

    RIN: Renewable Identification NumberRFS: Renewable Fuels StandardLCFS: Low Carbon Fuels Standard (California)ASTM: American Society for Testing and Materials

  • Altalto projectWaste to Sustainable Aviation Fuel

  • 17

    • Plan to build commercial waste-to-jet-fuel plant (with co-investors)

    • 70% lifecycle greenhouse gas reduction (200+% possible with CCS)1

    • Target start construction in 2021, production 2024 (subject to planning and funding)

    80 million liters2 of

    clean fuel/yr

    600,000 tonnes1 of

    residual waste /yr

    Immingham

    1 GHG reduction 70% on biogenic fraction of waste – methodology for non-biogenic fraction to be confirmed by Government2 Nameplate capacity

  • • 12 million tonne capacity gap in UK

    • Better use of waste than landfill or waste-to-energy

    • Gate fees paid to the project

    • Expect to contract ~90% of the volume from medium to large waste contractors

    18

    Waste supply

  • • Pre-FEED1 completed; £7.3M invested to date, plus £0.4M grant

    • Option secured on 32ha site near Immingham

    • Planning application submitted; supportive local community

    19

    Project status

    1 Pre-Front End Engineering Design (+/-30% cost estimate)

  • MagnoliaWoody biomass to fuel project portfolio

  • • Located in Natchez Mississippi, the Bayou Fuels project will produce 23.5 million gallons per year, at nameplate capacity, of renewable fuels from forestry waste materials supplied under long term contracts from local sources.

    • With a relentless focus on environmental attributes, the project will deliver drop-in transportation fuels to a rapidly growing market while achieving a Carbon Intensity of -125 g CO2e/MJ.

    — At a 50/50 blend with fossil fuels, this enables net zero carbon transportation.

    21

    Bayou Fuels overview

    Renewable Woody BiomassFeedstock

    Captured and SequesteredCO2 Emissions

    Below Zero (Carbon Sink)Lifecycle Fuel Emissions

    Treated grey water from City of NatchezWater Intake

    Maximum reuse of effluent within the facilityEffluent Treatment

    SolarElectricity Source

  • 6%

    20%

    28%

    46%

    Base Case D3/7 RINs and LCFS at long term forecast values

    Naphtha Diesel RINs LCFS

    • Highly negative Carbon Intensity drives high LCFS revenues and helps to reduce exposure to RINs

    • Relatively insensitive to crude price

    • Assumes only a modest premium for green fuels

    22

    Revenues supported by federal and state credits

    >$13 per

    gallon

    Chart1

    Naphtha

    Diesel

    RINs

    LCFS

    Base Case

    Base Case D3/7 RINs and LCFS at long term forecast values

    14523610.758716

    52702757.8978629

    74277841.3012608

    120853148.037166

    Summary Cases

    Base Case

    CAPEX reduction to 577

    Naphtha sales to CA

    CI Reduction

    Increased leverage under DOE

    maintain WTI Adjustment

    Low RIN Scenario

    RIN Prices reduce to $1.00/RINNo IRR as Cash negative

    High WTI scenario

    WTI at $8013.4% Project Levered IRR, DSCR at 1.63x

    Base Case #s

    FS Ann

    Model period ending - annual-Error chks01 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 04

    Timeline label - annual106Track chgsConstructionConstructionConstructionCommissionOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsPost - ops

    Financial year ending - annual4Alerts202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

    -Model column counterConstantUnitTotal123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

    -

    PROFIT AND LOSS

    -

    -NaphthaPL$204,473,368---3,803,2917,060,7986,693,9107,121,2066,613,1097,354,8056,812,3877,556,8387,019,7157,809,2787,235,4198,028,3807,459,8388,301,2147,693,3238,538,7927,936,2428,833,7028,188,9749,091,2798,451,9169,410,0848,725,4819,689,3089,010,09810,033,978-

    -SolventPL$-------------------------------

    -DieselPL$862,349,168---16,468,20430,517,33128,849,23430,543,09128,223,69631,351,79129,080,96332,140,81729,894,46533,239,34130,774,21634,114,81631,662,47335,185,54332,557,34936,070,09933,456,70237,155,91334,358,09938,039,47035,258,79839,129,05336,155,70939,998,84037,045,37041,077,787-

    -Drilling fluidsPL$-------------------------------

    -Jet FuelPL$-------------------------------

    -WaxPL$-------------------------------

    -LubesPL$-------------------------------

    -D3 RINsPL$599,157,187---9,298,44418,475,88818,992,99019,625,58118,196,61919,963,68418,775,08620,839,47719,080,60321,459,32420,100,52822,548,46221,182,18923,831,05722,329,77325,057,88123,547,77426,501,77224,841,02227,885,85626,214,70129,513,87727,674,38631,077,82129,226,06532,916,327-

    -D7 RINsPL$2,716,179,246---42,152,94583,757,36186,101,55488,969,30282,491,34090,502,03485,113,72594,472,29786,498,73597,282,26891,122,394102,219,69296,025,923108,034,123101,228,302113,595,727106,749,910120,141,364112,612,632126,415,882118,839,979133,796,243125,457,217140,886,122132,491,496149,220,680-

    -LCFS RINsPL$2,200,942,798---29,113,21175,462,68272,232,83776,160,47070,360,80677,783,51571,583,48578,842,37873,523,01282,178,47576,493,34185,264,88379,583,67288,952,62582,798,85392,293,45286,143,92696,285,18289,624,14199,901,40093,244,956104,222,17797,012,053108,136,489100,931,340112,813,436-

    -Tipping fee revenuePL$-------------------------------

    -CO2 sales revenuePL$-------------------------------

    -Operating revenue$6,583,101,766---100,836,095215,274,060212,870,524222,419,650205,885,570226,955,829211,365,647233,851,808216,016,530241,968,686225,725,898252,176,233235,914,095264,304,561246,607,600275,555,952257,834,554288,917,932269,624,867301,333,888282,010,351316,071,435295,024,846329,788,580308,704,369346,062,208-

    -EBITDA$4,172,517,604(965,014)(2,952,943)(6,061,461)47,245,995131,040,559137,831,850136,970,319130,890,192138,933,028134,601,109143,431,988136,479,973148,244,546143,972,939156,287,782152,257,536165,415,514159,469,515173,026,862167,875,763182,333,118176,163,294190,161,570184,783,903200,994,263194,127,452210,397,828203,196,628236,363,496-

    -Cash flow available for debt service$3,533,218,352439,8027,311,19116,296,36178,177,917129,740,438122,752,809135,334,257119,921,218138,072,654123,272,588129,256,732101,112,921121,284,281105,822,202127,149,564112,665,485135,350,382119,507,022142,433,711126,079,769150,611,843133,036,033158,279,060140,320,124167,088,720147,878,980175,328,015161,396,848207,297,425-

    -Guaranteed loan interest - paidCF$(175,855,395)(439,802)(7,311,191)(16,296,361)(23,683,041)(24,062,500)(21,562,500)(19,062,500)(16,562,500)(14,062,500)(11,562,500)(9,062,500)(6,562,500)(4,062,500)(1,562,500)----------------

    -Unguaranteed loan interest - paidCF$-------------------------------

    -Refinance debt interestPL & CF$-------------------------------

    -Refinancing debt 2 interestPL & CF$-------------------------------

    -Guaranteed loan repaymentCF$(500,000,000)----(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)----------------

    -Unguaranteed loan repaymentCF$-------------------------------

    -Refinance debt repaymentCF$-------------------------------

    -Refinancing debt 2 repaymentPL & CF$-------------------------------

    Total Debt Service439,8027,311,19116,296,36123,683,04174,062,50071,562,50069,062,50066,562,50064,062,50061,562,50059,062,50056,562,50054,062,50051,562,500----------------

    DSCR1.75x1.72x1.96x1.80x2.16x2.00x2.19x1.79x2.24x2.05x

    RIN$1 #s

    FS Ann

    Model period ending - annual1Error chks01 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 04

    Timeline label - annual104Track chgsConstructionConstructionConstructionCommissionOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsPost - ops

    Financial year ending - annual7Alerts202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

    0Model column counterConstantUnitTotal123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

    0

    PROFIT AND LOSS

    0

    0NaphthaPL$204473367.6370640003803291.134240337060798.350456846693909.69560447121206.279470896613109.348892277354804.578453086812386.80563467556838.217944017019715.071629337809277.7772927235419.399570248028380.238070477459838.182359968301214.183573327693323.483974398538792.485446717936241.591774048833701.970407048188973.591128799091279.116864638451915.963257489410083.875683098725481.207220179689308.414681469010098.4870389510033978.1863960

    0SolventPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0DieselPL$862349168.41260300016468204.291198530517330.902007828849234.432036530543091.132612728223695.927044531351791.384884329080962.592390732140816.556698529894464.817523333239340.763467230774215.967963934114815.796838331662472.534074735185542.732984532557349.455015536070098.950556333456701.798611837155913.060058734358099.118539338039469.720210635258797.527183939129053.468556436155709.28898839998839.897436537045369.722721541077786.57299960

    0Drilling fluidsPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0Jet FuelPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0WaxPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0LubesPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0D3 RINsPL$154269549.311850003361359.112656294889.33925988142.1886277690.1885744516.50086294889.33925744516.50086277690.1885744516.50086294889.33925744516.50086277690.1885744516.50086294889.33925744516.50086277690.1885744516.50086294889.33925744516.50086277690.1885744516.50086294889.33925744516.50086277690.1885744516.50086294889.33920

    0D7 RINsPL$699,355,29000015238161.3106828536831.6710427146244.585628458862.185626041808.1369628536831.6710426041808.1369628458862.185626041808.1369628536831.6710426041808.1369628458862.185626041808.1369628536831.6710426041808.1369628458862.185626041808.1369628536831.6710426041808.1369628458862.185626041808.1369628536831.6710426041808.1369628458862.185626041808.1369628536831.671040

    0LCFS RINsPL$2,200,942,79800029113211.283162575462681.926348272232836.625825776160469.54064770360806.01383777783515.400546671583485.45926678842378.344035873523011.774175782178475.315973976493341.449852485264883.298742779583672.444426488952624.541776382798852.811181392293451.80120686143926.46475396285181.520423989624141.09392999901400.387035393244956.3941238104222177.00914597012052.6324464108136488.607963100931339.558797112813436.1799110

    0Tipping fee revenuePL$-000000000000000000000000000000

    0CO2 sales revenuePL$-000000000000000000000000000000

    0Operating revenue$4121390173.4547700067984227.1319314147872532.189053140910367.527067148561319.326331136983935.927534151321832.374124139263159.495051153276585.492278142223516.301088158058814.866973146289301.455147162144631.707251150492307.798621167271102.468574154835850.387931171638895.610809159323194.492899177106517.56113163957538.441357181768701.597711168741994.522325187593035.363624173679567.766415192561189.293681178773132.406318198756921.9495460

    0EBITDA$1710806011.77351(965,014)(2,952,943)(6,061,461)14,394,12863,639,03165,871,69363,111,98961,988,55963,299,03262,498,62262,856,76662,686,95964,334,67564,536,34266,256,18166,835,74968,382,05667,697,76569,109,80669,364,40470,521,70370,495,96570,596,38471,515,54772,515,86472,782,17473,170,43773,265,39189,058,210-

    0Cash flow available for debt service$1588080263.89784431705.3707176897096616.9349440315780849.841666977494200.374657263218621.542051757323291.810470767705336.644126445619377.232494368818738.922596646258948.126006267545741.457236340550657.563565765677969.005820643433764.234893468473285.042516141133581.69536765785103.822160854617850.399664967737566.90556653835820.487031164372911.691119551563058.251164766056576.533540452982536.7087567986489.235704954309814.835181669474676.551176361203580.868119781591591.80953110

    -Guaranteed loan interest - paidCF$(174,433,496)(431,705)(7,096,617)(15,780,850)(22,999,324)(24,062,500)(21,562,500)(19,062,500)(16,562,500)(14,062,500)(11,562,500)(9,062,500)(6,562,500)(4,062,500)(1,562,500)----------------

    -Unguaranteed loan interest - paidCF$-------------------------------

    -Refinance debt interestPL & CF$-------------------------------

    -Refinancing debt 2 interestPL & CF$-------------------------------

    -Guaranteed loan repaymentCF$(500,000,000)----(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)(50,000,000)----------------

    -Unguaranteed loan repaymentCF$-------------------------------

    -Refinance debt repaymentCF$-------------------------------

    -Refinancing debt 2 repaymentPL & CF$-------------------------------

    Total Debt Service431,7057,096,61715,780,85022,999,32474,062,50071,562,50069,062,50066,562,50064,062,50061,562,50059,062,50056,562,50054,062,50051,562,500----------------

    DSCR0.85x0.80x0.98x0.69x1.07x0.75x1.14x0.72x1.21x0.84x

    0Retained cash balance BEG$0-0.000926138-0.0012619962-0.0014784765-0.0015318674-14252123.4722963-33591648.012665-34256620.8989373-65338080.8625228-60734467.254903-86637455.1476982-77805245.8015977-104896251.471993-92969226.274598-72531430.9461862-5060512.841956221744567.910038550000000.000000150000000.000000150000000.000000150000000.000000110000000.000000210000000.000000210000000.00000023000000.000000163000000.000000163000000.000000163000000.000000163000000.000000160.0000001416

    0plusNet cash flow-$0-(0)(0)(0)(0)(14,252,123)(19,339,525)(664,973)(31,081,460)4,603,614(25,902,988)8,832,209(27,091,006)11,927,02520,437,79567,470,91826,805,08128,255,432---(40,000,000)--(7,000,000)----(3,000,000)-

    0Retained cash balance$-0.000926138-0.0012619962-0.0014784765-0.0015318674-14252123.4722963-33591648.012665-34256620.8989373-65338080.8625228-60734467.254903-86637455.1476982-77805245.8015977-104896251.471993-92969226.274598-72531430.9461862-5060512.841956221744567.910038550000000.000000150000000.000000150000000.000000150000000.000000110000000.000000210000000.000000210000000.00000023000000.000000163000000.000000163000000.000000163000000.000000163000000.000000160.00000014160.0000001416

    High WTI #s

    FS Ann

    Model period ending - annual0Error chks01 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 0401 Jan 04

    Timeline label - annual107Track chgsConstructionConstructionConstructionCommissionOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsOperationsPost - ops

    Financial year ending - annual4Alerts202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

    0Model column counterConstantUnitTotal123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

    0

    PROFIT AND LOSS

    0

    0NaphthaPL$235150870.1653480005123671.67599659595209.8927529127639.592289568993.472288756284.4376489595209.8927528756284.4376489568993.472288756284.4376489595209.8927528756284.4376489568993.472288756284.4376489595209.8927528756284.4376489568993.472288756284.4376489595209.8927528756284.4376489568993.472288756284.4376489595209.8927528756284.4376489568993.472288756284.4376489595209.8927520

    0SolventPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0DieselPL$982382939.59619300021481425.132138340139984.645794138089620.103734439836849.546270436360903.104032239858162.282214436396238.161183639780567.626361436429522.655724740094576.895104236728757.379434440267313.207147636943427.99529740561935.586061537062150.782076440523383.684787537072425.35187240580697.737547336960535.398282940274726.812623936711440.97204540030265.519577936308661.573975939389472.17837135734149.296046538765745.96848810

    0Drilling fluidsPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0Jet FuelPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0WaxPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0LubesPL$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0D3 RINsPL$506781854.9795040005353636.6587176510904007.313362211721908.095853812630461.550648511793607.266472413561206.001225312967441.768245914827904.22405614117953.533026116253534.301048615578715.894654717876323.86008517171890.406866819748283.99830118908876.822741421676106.468137620802034.184860823901028.399935122864760.692778426188427.17919825111580.186098528829506.800012427558235.78979731540568.010504530221791.313525534672064.25935120

    0D7 RINsPL$2,297,411,07600024269819.5195249431499.820575553139316.701203757258092.362939853464352.941341661477467.205554958785736.01604867219832.482387264001389.349718473682688.831420370623512.055768181039334.832385377845903.177796389525554.125631585720241.596427998265015.988890594302554.9713689108351328.746372103653581.807262118720869.879031113839163.510313130693764.160056124930668.913746142983908.314287137005453.954649157180024.6423920

    0LCFS RINsPL$2,142,782,38500028394763.693057473580418.360338770411687.373809474219173.702227268547684.491387575756462.329459369696958.207162776740644.833019371563078.792418679987810.104148974454227.175632482991942.447568777462177.953527986581378.064703780591649.942850589833147.526117483847552.600541693718468.074353987234993.725603597238287.91629490759287.4721179101443883.82961494425962.6859914105253850.02393698240771.5785055109806122.2924780

    0Tipping fee revenuePL$-000000000000000000000000000000

    0CO2 sales revenuePL$-000000000000000000000000000000

    0Operating revenue$6164509125.84500084623316.6794299183651120.032822182490171.866881193513570.634366178922832.240882200248507.711206186602658.590288208137942.638104194868228.768536219613820.024474206141496.943138231743907.819466218179683.971136246012361.66745231039203.581744259866647.140213244780851.546291276146732.85096259470156.061575291991305.259427275177756.578223310592630.202012291979813.401159328736791.999378309958450.580374350019167.0554610

    0EBITDA$3749789984.81264(965,014)(2,952,943)(6,061,461)30,815,45599,079,432107,126,881107,737,612103,641,474111,926,752109,578,732117,449,626115,099,947125,651,369124,185,596135,649,881134,350,130146,950,647143,759,278157,200,089154,712,636169,460,304165,932,882180,755,242177,910,695195,490,756191,078,310209,362,095204,484,578240,379,004-

    0Cash flow available for debt service$3200864394.10674435694.2848326417202309.3000742816034714.079045777817820.286325298043203.61323392236858.2528649106055222.1606492849750.3629122111013938.62322298718406.0069125115627469.62471398230116.7053905106041838.93314690413064.8842825111110199.65385698701313.0689545120976600.559466107232197.459219130084056.161037115763867.411523140529198.244179124976111.689589150858427.077216134843194.027345162665941.486877145344703.225037174338339.317201162200453.226164210519384.3814810

    0Guaranteed loan interest - paidCF$-175120661.363184-435694.289176807-7202309.30178328-16034714.0801053-23322943.6921188-24062500-21562500-19062500-16562500-14062500-11562500-9062499.99999999-6562500-4062500-15625000000000000000000

    0Unguaranteed loan interest - paidCF$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0Refinance debt interestPL & CF$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0Refinancing debt 2 interestPL & CF$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0Guaranteed loan repaymentCF$-5000000000000-50000000-50000000-50000000-50000000-50000000-50000000-50000000-50000000-50000000-500000000000000000000000

    0Unguaranteed loan repaymentCF$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0Refinance debt repaymentCF$0000000000000000000000000000000

    0Refinancing debt 2 repaymentPL & CF$0000000000000000000000000000000

    Total Debt Service435,6947,202,30916,034,71423,322,94474,062,50071,562,50069,062,50066,562,50064,062,50061,562,50059,062,50056,562,50054,062,50051,562,500----------------

    DSCR1.32x1.29x1.54x1.39x1.73x1.60x1.96x1.74x1.96x1.75x

    Graphs

    Revenue Splits - Average first 5 years

    Base Case$0.5 RIN$1 RIN and $190 LCFS

    Naphtha14,523,61114,523,61114,523,611

    Diesel52,702,75852,702,75852,702,758

    RINs74,277,84116,476,79932,953,598

    LCFS120,853,148120,853,14892,943,078

    Revenue Splits - Over first 10 years - $ Millions

    Base Case2024202520262027202820292030203120322033

    Naphtha$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 8$ 7$ 8$ 7

    Diesel$ 31$ 29$ 31$ 28$ 31$ 29$ 32$ 30$ 33$ 31

    RINs$ 105$ 109$ 101$ 110$ 104$ 115$ 106$ 119$ 111$ 125

    LCFS$ 72$ 76$ 70$ 78$ 72$ 79$ 74$ 82$ 76$ 85

    Total$ 215$ 220$ 209$ 223$ 214$ 230$ 219$ 238$ 229$ 248

    Low RINs2024202520262027202820292030203120322033

    Naphtha$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 8$ 7$ 8$ 7

    Diesel$ 31$ 29$ 31$ 28$ 31$ 29$ 32$ 30$ 33$ 31

    RINs$ 35$ 33$ 35$ 32$ 35$ 32$ 35$ 32$ 35$ 32

    LCFS$ 75$ 72$ 76$ 70$ 78$ 72$ 79$ 74$ 82$ 76

    Total$ 148$ 141$ 149$ 137$ 151$ 139$ 153$ 142$ 158$ 146

    Max WTI2024202520262027202820292030203120322033

    Naphtha$ 10$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 7$ 8$ 7$ 8$ 7

    Diesel$ 40$ 29$ 31$ 28$ 31$ 29$ 32$ 30$ 33$ 31

    RINs$ 60$ 65$ 70$ 65$ 75$ 72$ 82$ 78$ 90$ 86

    LCFS$ 74$ 72$ 76$ 70$ 78$ 72$ 79$ 74$ 82$ 76

    Total$ 184$ 173$ 184$ 170$ 192$ 179$ 201$ 189$ 213$ 201

    EBITDA and DSCR

    Base CaseLow RINHigh WTI

    Sensitivities Chart from Model

    reflects levered project IRR sensitivity on base case

    Run STORE SENSITIVITY OUTPUTS macro to update the chart >>>STORE SENSITIVITY OUTPUTS

    CategoryUpside SensitivityBase IRRIRRΔ IRR

    RevenueRevenue +5%17.3%19.1%1.8 %

    Plant Availability UptimePlant Availability +5%17.3%19.1%1.8 %

    Capital expenditureCapex -5%17.3%18.8%1.5 %

    RINRIN +5%17.3%18.2%0.9 %

    Commission delayCommission -3 months17.3%18.0%0.7 %

    Operating expenditureOpex -5%17.3%18.0%0.7 %

    LCFSLCFS +5%17.3%17.9%0.6 %

    Construction delayConstruction -3 months17.3%17.9%0.6 %

    WTIWTI -5%17.3%17.8%0.5 %

    Operating cost UptimeOpCost Availability -5%17.3%17.7%0.4 %

    CategoryDownside SensitivityBase IRRIRRΔ IRR

    RevenueRevenue -5%17.3 %15.5 %(1.8)%

    Plant Availability UptimePlant Availability -5%17.3 %15.6 %(1.8)%

    Capital expenditureCapex +5%17.3 %16.0 %(1.3)%

    RINRIN -5%17.3 %16.4 %(0.9)%

    Commission delayCommission +3 months17.3 %16.6 %(0.8)%

    Operating expenditureOpex +5%17.3 %16.6 %(0.7)%

    LCFSLCFS -5%17.3 %16.7 %(0.6)%

    Construction delayConstruction +3 months17.3 %16.8 %(0.5)%

    WTIWTI +5%17.3 %16.8 %(0.5)%

    Operating cost UptimeOpCost Availability +5%17.3 %16.9 %(0.4)%

    CAPEX Bridge

    TotalsMovementsNote

    Old "Core Capex"720720

    Biomass boiler reduction(65)backup note from Sulis

    2nd hand equipment savings(20)backup note from Cadmus

    Design margin and other direct field cost savings(50)based on Ivan calc that used 6MWe for compressors

    Associated indirect field cost savings(7)

    Revised "core" capex577577

    CI Bridge

    TotalsMovementsNote

    Original CIOriginal CI2626

    Switch to solar with upgraded infrastructureSwitch to solar- 0backup note from Sulis

    Sequestration of all Diesel associated CO2Sequestration of CO2(123)backup note from Cadmus

    CO2 emissions (estimated) to sequester CO2Incremental CO2 emissions13based on Ivan calc that used 6MWe for compressors

    All CO2 Sequestration CINew CI(85)(85)

    IRR Bridge

    TotalsMovementsNote

    Original Unlevered Project IRR7.20%7.2%CAPEX $720m, 1660 boiler FEED, 11MW Power, No Naphtha LCFS, CI 26, no change to pre_FID $ or FID Sept '20 -- OP COST at 100% unplanned, Power declines to 5% end of commissioning, IRR is now at 7.2%

    CAPEX9.21%2.0%CAPEX reduced to $576m, Boiler FEED to 315sgt, Power at $70/mwh, increased ramp to match opcost ramp,

    Sell Naphtha to CA9.88%0.7%Getting LCFS for Napthta adds ~$7m p.a. in revenue

    Sequestration of CO213.15%3.3%backup note from Cadmus

    Project Unlevered13.2%

    DOE Leverage17.71%4.6%10 year DOE Debt at 5%, 2.1 DSCR, no Refi

    Project Levered IRR17.71%17.7%

    New Project Unlevered13.15%13.2%

    Upside Reliability13.47%0.3%1.5% increase in reliability to 90.6%

    Upside Regulatory Reform13.93%0.5%25% decrease in Feedstock

    Premium pricing14.33%0.4%add $0.25/gallon premium for all products, by adding $53 to Naphtha adder $0.25*42/.2

    Upside Unlevered IRR14.33%14.3%

    Upside Leverage33.37%19.0%$700m DOE debt at 15 years, 2.3xdscr, no refi

    Upside Project IRR33.37%33.4%

    FEED Spend Profile

    Check underlying data

    We do not have this over time to my knowledge

    Graphs

    Base Case

    Tables

    $0.5 RIN

    Low RIN

    $1 RIN and $190 LCFS

    Naphtha

    Diesel

    RINs

    LCFS

    $ Millions

    Revenues Over Time - Base Case

    Naphtha

    Diesel

    RINs

    LCFS

    $ Millions

    Revenues Over Time - Low RINs

    Naphtha

    Diesel

    RINs

    LCFS

    $ Millions

    Revenues Over Time - High WTI

    20241.7517696288

    20251.7153230996

    20261.9595910451

    20271.8016333211

    20282.155280454

    20292.0023973755

    20302.1884737617

    20311.7876317543

    20322.2434086712

    20332.0523093785

    EBITDA

    DSCR

    EBITDA vs DSCR - Base Case

    131.0405588491

    137.8318501369

    136.970319064

    130.8901924985

    138.9330281873

    134.6011092599

    143.4319884387

    136.4799727015

    148.2445458456

    143.9729385665

    EngineeringEngineering

    Project ManagementProject Management

    Project FinanceProject Finance

    Site & PermittingSite & Permitting

    Commercial AdvisoryCommercial Advisory

    FEED Spend %

    28800000

    0.7396002194

    5688000

    0.1460710433

    3800000

    0.0975861401

    281989.6

    0.0072416517

    369966.4

    0.0095009455

    20241.7517696288

    20251.7153230996

    20261.9595910451

    20271.8016333211

    20282.155280454

    20292.0023973755

    20302.1884737617

    20311.7876317543

    20322.2434086712

    20332.0523093785

    EBITDA

    DSCR

    EBITDA vs DSCR - Base Case

    131.0405588491

    137.8318501369

    136.970319064

    130.8901924985

    138.9330281873

    134.6011092599

    143.4319884387

    136.4799727015

    148.2445458456

    143.9729385665

    20241.7517696288

    20251.7153230996

    20261.9595910451

    20271.8016333211

    20282.155280454

    20292.0023973755

    20302.1884737617

    20311.7876317543

    20322.2434086712

    20332.0523093785

    EBITDA

    DSCR

    EBITDA vs DSCR - Base Case

    131.0405588491

    137.8318501369

    136.970319064

    130.8901924985

    138.9330281873

    134.6011092599

    143.4319884387

    136.4799727015

    148.2445458456

    143.9729385665

    EBITDA and DSCR

    Base Case2024202520262027202820292030203120322033

    EBITDA$ 131$ 138$ 137$ 131$ 139$ 135$ 143$ 136$ 148$ 144

    DSCR1.75x1.72x1.96x1.80x2.16x2.00x2.19x1.79x2.24x2.05x

    below not yet updated

    Low RINs2024202520262027202820292030203120322033

    EBITDA$ 64$ 66$ 63$ 62$ 63$ 62$ 63$ 63$ 64$ 65

    DSCR0.85x0.80x0.98x0.69x1.07x0.75x1.14x0.72x1.21x0.84x

    High WTI2024202520262027202820292030203120322033

    EBITDA$ 99$ 107$ 108$ 104$ 112$ 110$ 117$ 115$ 126$ 124

    DSCR1.32x1.29x1.54x1.39x1.73x1.60x1.96x1.74x1.96x1.75x

    Spend Profiles

    table to right for formatting puropsesFEED

    External SpendFEED

    Site and Permitting$ 281,990

    Legal$ 168,000

    Commercial$ 369,966

    Project Finance$ 2,000,000

    Engineering$ 28,800,000

    Feedstock$ 72,000

    Plant Operations Management$ 448,000

    Internal and Other Spend

    Total internal labor costs$ 5,000,000

    Additional internal costs$ 1,800,000

    Contingency$ - 0

    Total Costs$ 38,939,956

    Categories for Chart

    Engineering$ 28,800,00074%

    Project Management$ 5,688,00015%

    Project Finance$ 3,800,00010%

    Site & Permitting$ 281,9901%

    Commercial Advisory$ 369,9661%

    Total$ 38,939,956Note, this figure is not represented in model for Pre-FID Spend. Once aligned on $ for FEED, suggest we update pre-FID spend

    Engineering Breakout

    FEED contractor$ 8,000,00028%

    Licensor packages$ 8,000,00028%

    License fees$ 3,800,00013%

    AL engineering$ 6,700,00023%

    Other support$ 2,100,0007%

    Other licensor services$ 200,0001%

    Total$ 28,800,000

    Sources and UsesBasecase

    table to right for formatting puropsesSOURCES AND USESSOURCES AND USES

    SourcesUSD% totalUsesUSD% totalSourcesUSD% totalUsesUSD% total

    Core CAPEX567,749,93963.6 %Core CAPEX567749939.10.6364694123

    Guaranteed loan500,000,00056.1 %EPC cost's profit and risk68,129,9937.6 %Guaranteed loan5000000000.5605191375EPC cost's profit and risk68129992.6920.0763763295

    Unguaranteed loan--Owners engineering3,000,0000.3 %Unguaranteed loan00Owners engineering30000000.0033631148

    Power Infrastructure4,000,0000.4 %Power Infrastructure40000000.0044841531

    1st lien500,000,00056.1 %Construction costs642,879,93272.1 %1st lien5000000000.5605191375Construction costs642879931.7920.7206930097

    Pre COD operating costs58,606,5876.6 %Pre COD operating costs58606586.91326110.0657002271

    Owner's Risk capital8,516,2491.0 %Owner's Risk capital8516249.08650.0095470412

    Equity308,322,06034.6 %Insurance during construction3,499,2740.4 %Equity308322059.9389510.3456408302Insurance during construction3499274.286561220.0039228204

    Pre COD revenue83,708,1439.4 %Performance risk insurance14,000,0001.6 %Pre COD revenue83708143.1133710.0938400324Performance risk insurance140000000.0156945358

    Other sources392,030,20343.9 %O&M reserve deposit16,904,2521.9 %Other sources392030203.0523220.4394808625O&M reserve deposit16904251.59442580.018950313

    EPC Contingency Deposit34,064,9963.8 %EPC Contingency Deposit34064996.3460.0381881647

    Development capital & fee--Development capital & fee00

    Corporation tax3,637,4500.4 %Corporation tax3637449.611566870.0040777202

    Other costs139,228,80815.6 %Other costs139228807.8383150.1560808226

    Equity financing fee9,249,6621.0 %Equity financing fee9249661.798168520.0103692249

    Guaranteed loan upfront fee15,000,0001.7 %Guaranteed loan upfront fee150000000.0168155741

    Guaranteed loan agency fee350,7820.0 %Guaranteed loan agency fee350782.096320.0003932402

    Guaranteed loan interest paid47,730,3955.4 %Guaranteed loan interest paid47730394.5321030.0535075991

    DSRA deposit37,590,6254.2 %DSRA deposit375906250.0421405294

    Financing cost109,921,46312.32 %Financing cost109921463.4265920.1232261677

    Total sources892,030,203100.0 %Total uses892,030,203100.0 %Total sources892030203.0523221Total uses892030203.0569071

  • 23

    Future U.S. projects• Velocys initial site identification process involved a

    US wide search for sites, which has resulted in 11already vetted sites and three priority sitesfocused in the Southeast which can be quicklysecured for future development.

    • Future site opportunities have strong localinfrastructure, sufficient woody biomass within a75 mile radius, and excellent State and Countylong term incentive packages on offer.

    • Abundance of woody biomass enablesincreasing production capacities for futureplants by 2x leading to economies of scale.

    • Recently closed paper mills, have infrastructure(e.g. woody biomass boiler and wood yards) thatcould materially reduce the required investmentsfor a biorefinery.

    • Magnolia believes a number of potential sites existin other states based on discussions with localrepresentatives, feedstock supply, and futureregulatory changes.

    • Future plants also benefit from leverage at FID,reducing equity and increasing returns.

    Arkadelphia,Arkansas

    Shreveport,Louisiana

    Epes,Alabama

    Portfolio accelerates both volume of fuels and carbon savings

  • Industry implications and conclusion

  • • Carbon-negative, sustainably sourced fuels can be made available as soon as plants are built (~4 years)— RSB and RFS-compliant woody feedstock for 100 plants (~2

    billion gallons, 10 million tonnes) in the US

    • Can be blended into marine diesel / marine gas oil — Immediate CO2 reductions (double due to negative CI) with no

    change to engines or bunkering infrastructure— Air quality improvements (particulates, sulfur)— Higher cetane likely to improve maintenance and performance

    • Challenges— Marine fuels do not currently qualify for credits in US or UK— No internationally agreed decarbonisation structure for sector — Competition for feedstock with aviation in long term

    25

    Sustainable hydrocarbon fuels for marine

  • • Velocys is advancing sustainable fuels projects in the US and UK— One of the few sustainable routes to producing drop-in,

    renewable fuels not limited by blending, derived from waste resources

    — Demonstrated technology and operational capability— CCUS enables negative Carbon Intensity fuels, enabling the

    growth of a material supply of sustainable fuels

    • Opportunity to deploy in the marine sector — Easily implemented route to decarbonization— Requires supportive regulation and a concerted drive

    26

    Summary

  • 27

    Neville Hargreaves

    • Neville is responsible for Velocys’ waste to fuels business, including the commercial, financial and corporate development of the Altalto waste-to-jet-fuel project in the UK. He developed this project from inception, building the collaboration with British Airways and Shell and securing £8M ($10M) in funding to date. He is also responsible for government and stakeholder relations in the UK.

    • Neville has over 30 years’ technical and commercial experience in the oil, renewable energy and consulting industries, including 12 years with Exxon and 4 years with Bain and Company, the strategy consulting firm. At Exxon he led technical and commercial teams in areas including marine fuels and product development, bringing over 70 new products to market. He has delivered complex projects with many stakeholders across global public companies, contributing hundreds of millions of dollars to corporate value, led two small businesses and launched a successful innovation programme for the UK government.

    • He holds an MA in chemistry from Cambridge University and a PhD from University College London, and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry.

    VP Waste to Fuels

  • Questions? Tammy Klein, Principal

    +1.703.625.1072 (M); [email protected]

    Following these issues? Sign up for my free biweekly newsletter at:

    http://www.futurefuelstrategies.com

    FFO_Shipping_WebinarTK.pdfFuture Fuel Outlook Service�Web Conference ��Future Fuels for Shipping ��January 2020Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Questions?

    FFS_Shipping_WC2.pdfBallard Marine Webinar_FinalFuture Marine Fuels - Velocys finalFuture Fuels for ShippingAnother storm comingSlide Number 3Fischer Tropsch (FT) route to sustainable fuelsVelocys proprietary technology and companyVelocys Completed demonstration at commercial scaleLead client: Red Rock BiofuelsVelocys solutionSlide Number 10Conversion processNegative Carbon Intensity (CI)Cleaner burning fuels that can be used immediatelySignificant reductions in particulates and sulfurVelocys fuels meet requirements for drop-inAltalto projectSlide Number 17Waste supplyProject statusMagnoliaBayou Fuels overviewRevenues supported by federal and state credits�Future U.S. projectsIndustry implications and conclusionSustainable hydrocarbon fuels for marineSummaryNeville Hargreaves