Future Directions for International Data Iassist 2010 ESDS International Mimas, University of Manchester Richard Wiseman Celia Russell Susan Noble.

Future Directions for International Data

Iassist 2010

ESDS InternationalMimas, University of Manchester

Richard WisemanCelia RussellSusan Noble

What we will cover

• ESDS International

• ESDS International log analysis

• Global Financial Crisis Overview

• GDP Limits

• Stiglitz Commission

ESDS International

• provides free web-based access to key international macro level databanks, only for UK Academic institutions

• helps users locate and acquire international micro level datasets

• promotes the use of international datasets in research and teaching across a range of disciplines

• is run by Mimas at the University of Manchester and the UK Data Archive at the University of Essex

Building an international data community

• Hosts 37 major intergovernmental databanks

• Over UK 200 universities• Over 26,000 individual users• Average download 90,000 cells• Over 500,000 data analysis

sessions• Supporting website used

worldwide

Analysis of ESDS International logs: Countries

• http://esds.ac.uk/international/news/mapusage.asp

India

United Kingdom

Mexico

Brazil

South Africa

Ghana

Nigeria

Kenya

China

United States

Indonesia

India United Kingdom Mexico Brazil South Africa Ghana Nigeria Kenya China United States

Foreign direct investmentLand useFood exportsFinal consumption expenditureAdjusted net savings

Source: ESDS International World Bank web server logs

http://esds.ac.uk/international/news/publications.asp

India popular Series (Analysis of ESDS International logs)

1. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$)2. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP)3. Forest area (% of land area)4. Food exports (% of merchandise exports)5. Final consumption expenditure etc (% of GDP)6. Personal computers7. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100, 000 people)8. Financing via international capital markets (gross, % of GDP)9. Food beverages and tobacco (% of value added in

manufacturing)10.GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)

http://esds.ac.uk/international/news/publications.asp

Data liberation

• Increasing trend for making data freely available (e.g. World Bank)

• Increased audience

• Foster innovation

Photo by: respres, Creative Commons, Flickr

Global Financial Crisis

Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland

Office for National Statistics, Time Series Data (Edition March 2010), ESDS International, (Mimas) University of Manchester

Photo by: Rafael Chamorro, Creative Commons, Flickr

Bear Sterns

Photo by: CanadaGood, Creative Commons, Flickr &Photo by: artemuestra, Creative Commons, Flickr

Photo by: blueSkySunHigh, Creative Commons, Flickr

Iceland melts

International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, April 2008 Edition and October 2008 Edition, ESDS International, (Mimas) University of Manchester

Icelandic Current Account Balance Predictions

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Cu

rren

t A

cco

un

t as

% G

DP

April 08Predictions

October 08Predictions

Case Study:Comparing Early Warning Systems for

Banking Crises

• Dilruba Karim, Philip Davis, Brunel University

• Data from IMF and World Bank • Used standard models to generated

probabilities of banking crises • Found these models gave no

significant increase in crisis probabilities in the two years preceding the sub-prime episode

• Which leads us onto…

http://www.esds.ac.uk/international/casestudies/

Problems with GDP

Photo by: Andres Rueda, Creative Commons, Flickr

Problems with GDP

Production as positive

Photo by: Vidiot, Creative Commons, Flickr

Production as positive

Income Distribution

Photo by: loungerie, Creative Commons, Flickr

Income distribution

Economic sustainability

Photo by: artemuestra, Creative Commons, Flickr

Economic Sustainability

Environmental Sustainability

Photo by: Wakx , Creative Commons, Flickr

Environmental Sustainability

Only measures activities we pay forOnly measures activities we pay for

Creation of a Commission

• President Sarkozy created a commission to look at the issues led by Joseph Stiglitz– Limits of GDP– More relevant indicators of social progress– Feasibility of alternative measurement tools

Commission Conclusions: Economy

• Look at income and consumption rather than production

• Give more prominence to distribution of income, consumption and wealth

• Household income and consumption

• Broaden income measures to non-market activities

Commission Conclusions: Quality of life

• Data on subjective well-being (evaluation of one’s life)

• Objective conditions and opportunities (health, education, political voice)

Commission Conclusions:Sustainable Development &

Environment

• Need projections as well as observations

• Global issue that goes beyond national boundaries

• An “alert” to unsustainable situations

Easter Island

• Are we measuring the right thing?

• What we measure must be sustainable!

Photo by: vtveen, Creative Commons, Flickr

Bhutan

• Measuring happiness since 1972

Photo by: by babasteve, Creative Commons, Flickr

Global Project

• Hosted by the OECD

• Seeks to become reference point for those who wish to measure, and assess the progress of their societies

• Not just discussion, action

Conclusions

• Removal of barriers to data access

• Fundamental shift needed on how we measure progress

• Dashboard of indicators needed

And…

• “…the job of statistician will become the ‘sexiest’ around. Data, he explains, are widely available; what is scarce is the ability to extract wisdom from them”

Hal Varian, Google’s chief economist, Economist.