Future Challenges

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Future Challenges

The Initial Workshop on USGS/FWS Future ChallengesSummary of Global Change Breakout Session

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Science Needed to Address Challenge

• Long-term Monitoring and Documentation– Indicators– Synthesis and dissemination of existing information– Identify schemes, species, areas already showing

short-term change for long-term monitoring due to global change

• Integrated Studies of Multiple Stressors

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Science Needed to Address Change• Models

– Model uncertainty– Reduce uncertainty when possible– Multiple scales– Couple GSMs to ecosystems– Couple GSMs to species level

• Land Use/Cover Implications– Ecosystems– Environmental

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Science Needed to Address Change

• Evolutionary Potential of Species• Nitrogen Availability and Affect• Extinction Projections

– Vulnerable species– Impact on ecosystem

• Data Management

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Science Needed to Address Change

• Vulnerable Ecosystems– Tundra– Boreal forests– Temperate forests– Alpine meadows– Barrier islands– Near shore marine systems– Coastal and other wetlands– River stream systems– Island surface water

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Science Needed to Address Change

• Threshold Conditions for Ecosystem Health– Indicators of change

• Fertilization Affect of CO2

– Assessment of secondary affects• Sentinal Species

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Resource Management Strategies Needed

• Extend/Expand Mission and Functions• Adaptive/Mitigation Management Strategies

– Appropriate risk levels– Cost/benefit analyses

• Ecosystem Level Goals• Reflect Global Change in Management Plans

– CCPs– Ecosystem focus

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Resource Management Strategies Needed

• Promote Evolutionary Potential of Species• Management Priorities

– Eliminate administrivia• Information Dissemination Strategy

– Scientists to end users– Build capacity within FWS– Acquisition

• Ecosystem Teams (e.g., Chesapeake Bay Team)

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Resource Management Strategies Needed

• Adaptive Management Strategies– Appropriate risk levels– Cost/benefit analyses– Habitat loss– Long-term time component in management plans

• Gap Analysis– On the ground– Land acquisition to mitigate losses

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Resource Management Strategies Needed

• Science-based Changes in Management Goals– Population goals

• Identify Implementation Sites for National Goals

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Partnerships

• FWS, NPS, BLM manage holistically• NOAA

– Coastal status and trends• Others needed for monitoring moving species

– States– Tribes– Other Feds

• GIO/CIO

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Partnerships

• Hydrologic monitoring partners/network– State cooperators– Army Corps of Engineers

• National Program Coordinators USGS/FWS• FWS ecosystem teams with USGS• International partners• Non-friendly stakeholders

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Pearls of Wisdom

• Issue is global change of which climate change is a subset• Exchanging spatial for temporal• When you come to a fork in the road, take it!

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Top Priorities/Next Steps: Short-term

• Develop a Comprehensive Communication Strategy– Existing information – Fact sheets aimed at refuge management– Needs sharing specific to Service programs

• Bring NGOs on Board

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Top Priorities/Next Steps: Short-term

• Establish Collaborative Teams at Regional Scale and Refuge Scale – Identify next steps

• Develop an Education Plan– Assess state of knowledge and understanding (on-

going)• Establish a Working Group

– Distill and clarify next steps

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Top Priorities/Next Steps: Short-term

• Identify Budget Resources – All short-term/ long-term plans

• Provide Guidance, Policies and Framing• Develop Tools/Mechanisms for Capturing and

Sharing Lessons Learned• Identify Areas Lacking Science Expertise for

Monitoring

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Top Priorities/Next Steps: Short-term

• Develop Catalog of Studies Already Done • Provide a Synthesis of Information

– Holistic, ecosystem scale– Impacts of global change on regional species– Develop a framework

• Prepare an ‘06 Budget Initiative– Monitoring strategies across Bureaus

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Top Priorities/Next Steps: Long-term• Establish an Inter-Bureau Strategic Think

Tank• Build Capacity

– Models and applications– Acquiring and translating science information

• Track Flora and Fauna– Develop a strategy among agencies and partners

• Develop Enabling Legislation for Refuges – Vis a vis global change initiatives