Future Air Quality in Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios: Relationships Between Economic Wellbeing and Air Quality J. Jason West Steven J. Smith, Joint Global Change Research Institute Louisa Emmons, NCAR Larry W. Horowitz, GFDL The UNC Climate, Health and Air Quality Lab
13
Embed
Future Air Quality in Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios: Relationships Between Economic Wellbeing and Air Quality J. Jason West Steven J.
Will A Richer World Put Up With Air Pollution? Environmental Kuznets Curves: Richer countries are expected to be more willing to devote resources for environmental protection Ausubel and Waggoner, 2009 Income per Capita Environmental Impact
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Future Air Quality in Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios:Relationships Between Economic
Wellbeing and Air Quality
J. Jason WestSteven J. Smith, Joint Global Change Research
InstituteLouisa Emmons, NCAR
Larry W. Horowitz, GFDL
The UNC
Climate, Health and Air Quality Lab
What Will Future Air Quality Be?
• The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000) projected high growth of air pollutant emissions, in future scenarios.
Modeled monthly mean ozone increase in 2100 (SRES A2 scenario), relative to 2000 – average of 10 global models (Prather et al., 2003).
Will A Richer World Put Up With Air Pollution?
Environmental Kuznets Curves: Richer countries are expected to be more willing to devote resources for environmental protection
Ausubel and Waggoner, 2009
Income per Capita
Env
ironm
enta
l Im
pact
• Integrated Assessment Models assume that emission controls increase with income.
• However, pollutant concentrations, should be more closely related to incomes.
Smith et al., 2009
ObjectiveEvaluate one RCP scenario for its consistency across regions in terms of air quality, by using
a global chemical transport model in the scenario development process.- Analyze the relationships between income and air quality, rather than emissions controls.- Use an iterative process of creating scenario and simulating global air quality.
New scenarios for use in IPCC AR5 = Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios
Use MOZART (versions 2 and 4) for global simulations of future air quality.
RCP Scenarios
We will use MOZART to model the RCP4.5 scenario.
RCP8.5>8.5 W/m2 in 2100, Rising
MESSAGE model, IIASA, Austria
RCP6~6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100Stabilization without exceeding target
AIM model, NIES, Japan
RCP4.5~4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100Stabilization without exceeding target
MiniCAM model, PNNL, USA
RCP3-PD<3 W/m2 in 2100peak & decline stabilization
IMAGE model, PBL, Netherlands
RCP scenarios named for their radiative forcings in 2100.
• MOZART-2 is used to model RCP4.5 scenario in 2005, 2050 and 2095, based on gridded emissions outputs of MiniCAM.
• Resolution: T42, 2.8°x2.8° with 34 vertical levels.• Meteorology: MACCM3 simulated global meteorology for the
present.• VOC speciation: from POET global emissions.• Seasonal distributions of emissions: from RETRO global
emissions.• Natural emissions: from base MOZART-2 simulation
(Horowitz et al., 2003).• PM2.5 = SO4 + NO3 + NH4 + EC + OCx1.5• Methane is fixed globally at estimated future concentrations.• This version of MOZART-2 has been evaluated extensively
against measurements, but not for these base emissions.
MOZART-2 setup
Results: Second IterationAnnual average PM2.5
2050 2095
2005
World Regions
Results – PM2.5 by region
Mean PM2.5 for the consecutive 3 month period with highest PM2.5 in each region.
• We’ve shown how atmospheric modeling can be used in the scenario development process.
• By adjusting emission controls, future PM2.5 concentrations were made to yield reasonably consistent relationships with projected future incomes, among world regions.
• Ozone was found to be harder to adjust using a region’s own emission controls, because of the influence of background and foreign sources.
Preliminary Conclusions
Next Steps• Convert to MOZART-4 and evaluate model against
measurements for base emissions.• Simulate final RCP4.5 scenario, and other RCP
scenarios.• Evaluate simulating under future climate conditions.