FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

O[JIMFKJYM@WAO YLK

M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWWGUG@K YLKA^U

Lmfn{~h >5 Fmu >2=2

Nu Yla~wykj Ra``key

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ > ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Ym`cejh ylk y~{yl

‖Ey ew xk`` kja{hl ylmy rkar`k ao ylkjmyeaj ia jay {jik~wymji a{~ nmjcejh mji

fajkym~u wuwykf oa~ eo ylku iei E

nk`ekvk ylk~k xa{`i nk m ~kva`{yeajnkoa~k yafa~~ax fa~jejh*‖

‗‗Lkj~u Oa~i ,=<?7 ‗ =598%

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ 7 ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Fajku mji ylk r{~glmwejh raxk~ ao fajku

Fajku ew ylk {jevk~wm``u mggkryki fkmjw ao k|glmjhk*

↞ Ylk

k|glmjhk

o{jgyeaj

ao fajku

ew

ylk

wa`k

o{jgyeaj

ao fajku*Ylk

wya~k

ao vm`{k

o{jgyeaj ylk

{jey

ao mgga{jy

o{jgyeaj

mji ylk

ikok~~ki

rmufkjy

o{jgyeaj

m~k

w{n&o{jgyeajw

ao ylk

fkmjw

ao k|glmjhk

o{jgyeaj

ao fajku*

Ej m fajkym~u kgajafu ylk r{~glmwejh raxk~ ao fajku ew

ikyk~fejki nu ylk w{rr`u ao mji ikfmji oa~ fajku*

Gm~` Fkjhk~,=<92 ‗ =5>=%

U

Ikfmji oa~ haaiw 6w{rr`u ao fajku

U2

Fajku {jeywrk~ haai ,R% W{rr`u ao haaiw 6

ikfmji oa~ fajku

R2

R=

M

N

U=

Ylk R{~glmwejh Raxk~ ao Fajku

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ 9 ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Xlmy ejo`myeaj ~km``u ew ,E%

Yaimu ejo`myeaj ew yuregm``u {jik~wyaai mw mjajhaejh ~ewk ejm ,gajw{fk~% r~egk ejik| ,mji yl{w m ikg`ejk ej ylk r{~glmwejhraxk~ ao fajku%*

W{gl mj ejyk~r~kymyeaj ao ejo`myeaj ~kwyw aj ylkejik| ~khefkr{y oa~xm~i nu ylk [W Mfk~egmj kgajafewy E~vejh Oewlk~,=<?8 ‗ =598%*

Laxkvk~ ylk ejik| ~khefk gmj nk g~eyegewki oa~ m j{fnk~ ao ~kmwajw ,gafraweyeaj ao ylk ejik| xkehlyejhw kyg%*

Fa~k efra~ymjy ey wla{`i nk jayki ylmy ylk~k m~k mgy{m``u yxakookgyw ylmy m~k yuregm``u mwwagemyki xeyl ejo`myeaj jmfk`u ,e%vewen`k kookgy mji ,ee% mjejvewen`k kookgy *

E~vejh Oewlk~,=<?8 ‗ =598%

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ ; ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Xlmy ejo`myeaj ~km``u ew ,EE%

Ylk vewen`k kookgy ao ejo`myeajew ylk glmjhk ej avk~m`` r~egkw*

↞ M ~ewk

ej r~egkw

~kw{`yejh

o~af

mj ejg~kmwk

ej ylk

fajku

w{rr`u k|gkkiejh

,ylk

~ewk

ej% fajku

ikfmji*

Ylk ejvewen`k kookgy ao ejo`myeajew ylk ~kiewy~en{yevk kookgyxlegl ~kw{`yw o~af m ~ewk ej ylk fajku wyagc e~~kwrkgyevkao mglmjhk ej ylk r~egk `kvk` *

↞ Oe~wy ~kgkevk~w

ao ylk

jkx

fajku

nkjkoey

my ylk

k|rkjwk

ao `myk ~kgkevk~w

,‚Gmjye``aj

Kookgy‐%*

^eglm~i Gmjye``aj,=?<2 ‗

=879%

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Xlmy ejo`myeaj ~km``u ew ,EEE%

Ylk vewen`k mji ejvewen`k kookgyw ao ejo`myeaj m~k mgy{m``ugmry{~ki nu glmjhkw ej ylk fajku wyagc4

↞ M ~ewk

ej ylk

fajku

w{rr`u

jkgkwwm~e`u

`kmiw

ya m ikg`ejk

ejylk

r{~glmwejh

raxk~ ao fajku

‗

gafrm~ki

xeyl

m wey{myeaj

ej xlegl

ylk

fajku

w{rr`u

~kfmejw

{jglmjhki

‗ mji ey

m`walmw ~kiewy~en{yevk

kookgyw*

↞ ^ewejh

r~egkw

m~k

m ,rawwen`k% wufryaf

ao m ~ewk

ej ylk fajku

wyagc*

Wa xk gmj nmwgem``u wmu ylmy kgajafegm``u wrkmcejhylk ~ewkej ylk fajku wyagc ew ylk r~ark~ ejyk~r~kymyeaj ao ejo`myeaj*

@{ixeh vaj Fewkw,=<<= ‗

=587%

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

O~kk fm~cky fajku ,E%

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

O~kk fm~cky fajku ,EE%

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

O~kk fm~cky fajku ,EEE%

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

O~kk fm~cky fajku ,E_%

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

G~kiey mji fajku r~ai{gyeaj

[W Nmjc G~kiey mji F> ,+ u!u%

Wa{~gk4 Ylafwaj Oejmjgem`, axj gm`g{`myeajw*

&=2

&;

2

;

=2

=;

>2

?2 ?; 82 8; <2 <; 52 5; 22 2; =2

Nmjc G~kieyF>

Fajku ew

r~ai{gki

yl~a{hl

‚ge~g{`myeaj

g~kiey‐ xlegl

ejg~kmwkw

ylk

fajku

wyagc ‚a{y ao ylej

me~‐*

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

M ylka~u ao ylk g~ewew

‚Ylk~k ew ja fkmjw ao mvaeiejh ylk oejm`ga``mrwk ao m naaf n~a{hly mna{y nu g~kieyk|rmjweaj* Ylk m`yk~jmyevk ew aj`u xlkylk~ ylkg~ewew wla{`i gafk waajk~ mw ylk ~kw{`y ao mva`{jym~u mnmjiajfkjy ao o{~ylk~ g~kieyk|rmjweaj a~ `myk~ mw m oejm` mji yaym`gmymwy~arlk ao ylk g{~~kjgu wuwykf ejva`vki*‐

@{ixeh vaj Fewkw ,=55?% L{fmj Mgyeaj 9yl ki* Oa| /Xe`ckw Wmj O~mjgewga r* ;8>*

@{ixeh vaj Fewkw=<<= ‗

=587

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ = 7 ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

]{mjyeyu ao `amjmn`k o{jiw

] 2

Ejyk~kwy~myk

W“ 6 W # Ι F

e2

W ,w{rr`u ao r~kwkjy haaiwikfmji oa~

o{y{~k haaiw%

] =

M

Ne=

E ,ikfmji oa~r~kwkjy haaiww{rr`u ao o{y{~k haaiw%

G

] >2

N“G“

] 7] 9

W““ 6 W # Ι F # Ι F

Fmjer{`myejh ylk ejyk~kwy ~myk

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ = 9 ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

[W jafejm` HIR mji yaym` ikny [W)nj

Wa{~gk4 Ylafwaj Oejmjgem`* & Jafejm` HIR mjj{m`etki }{m~yk~`u imym* & Iafkwyeg jajoejmjgem`wkgya~ ,la{wkla`iw n{wejkww mji wymyk `agm` mji okik~m` havk~jfkjy% iafkwyeg oejmjgem` wkgya~ mjioa~kehj wkgya~*

2

=2 222

>2 222

72 222

92 222

;2 222

?2 222

;> ;? ?2 ?9 ?< 8> 8? <2 <9 << 5> 5? 22 29 2<

Jafejm` HIR Yaym` ikny

Ikny ru~mfei

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ = ; ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Xa~`i xeik fajku k|rmjweaj

W/R ;22 AKGI .jm~~ax. mji .n~ami. fajku mji GRE

Wa{~gk4 Ylafwaj Oejmjgem` axj gm`g{`myeajw*

$Wk~ekw m~k ejik|ki ,Dmj (87 6 =22%*

2

922

<22

=>22

=?22

>222

>922

><22

7>22

82 87 8? 85 <> <; << 5= 59 58 22 27 2? 25 =>

W/R ;22 N~ami fajkuJm~~ax fajk GRE

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ = ? ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Havk~jfkjy g~kiey

GIW ; ukm~w wavk~kehjw nmwew raejyw

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ = 8 ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Ylk {`yefmyevk fkmjw ao rmufkjy

Ha`i a{jgk ej jmyeajm` g{~~kjgu$

Wa{~gk4 N`aafnk~h axj gm`g{`myeajw*$Wk~ekw m~k ejik|ki4 Dmj{m~u =58= 6 =22*

2

;22

=222

=;22

>222

>;22

7222

7;22

9222

9;22

;222

8= 89 88 <2 <7 <? <5 5> 5; 5< 2= 29 28 =2[W&Ia``m~ N~eyewl Ra{jiDmrmjkwk ukj I&Fm~c ,₠ mw o~af =!=!55%

Wxeww O~mjg

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ = < ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Glejm4 ~koa~fejh ylk ejyk~jmyeajm` fajkym~u wuwykf

‐Ylk ikwe~mn`k ham` ao ~koa~fejh ylk ejyk~jmyeajm`fajkym~u wuwykf ew ya g~kmyk mj ejyk~jmyeajm`~kwk~vk g{~~kjgu ylmy ew iewgajjkgyki o~afejievei{m` jmyeajw mji ew mn`k ya ~kfmej wymn`k ejylk `ajh ~{j yl{w ~kfavejh ylk ejlk~kjyikoegekjgekw gm{wki nu {wejh g~kiey&nmwkijmyeajm` g{~~kjgekw*‖

‐Nmgc ej ylk =592w Ckujkw lmi m`~kmiu r~arawkiya ejy~ai{gk mj ejyk~jmyeajm` g{~~kjgu {jey jmfki‐Nmjga~‖ nmwki aj ylk vm`{k ao 72~kr~kwkjymyevk gaffaieyekw *‖

‐Ylk g~kmyeaj ao mj ejyk~jmyeajm` g{~~kjgu {jeynmwki aj ylk Ckujkwemj r~arawm` ew m na`iejeyemyevk ylmy ~k}{e~kw k|y~ma~iejm~u ra`eyegm`veweaj mji ga{~mhk*‖

Wa{~gk4 Tla{ \emagl{mj Havk~ja~ ao Ylk Rkar`kw― Nmjc ao Glejm ^koa~f ylk Ejyk~jmyeajm` Fajkym~u Wuwykf >7 Fm~gl

>225*

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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‗ = 5 ‗

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

Ylk {`yefmyevk fkmjw ao rmufkjy ,EE%

R{~glmwejh raxk~ ao ylk [W) mji ha`i$

]{k``k 4 N`aafnk~h*$J{fnk~ ao gajw{fk~ haaiw( nmwckyw oa~ ajk [W) mji ajk a{jgk ao ha`i*

2

=

>

7

9

;

?

8

<

>2 >; 72 7; 92 9; ;2 ;; ?2 ?; 82 8; <2 <; 52 5; 22 2; =2[W&Ia``m~ Okej{jtk Ha`iA{jgk ao ha`i

O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

7/31/2019 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AUSTRIAN BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY

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O[JIMFKJYM@W AO YLK M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWW GUG@K YLKA^U

O[JIMFKJYM@WAO YLK

M[WY^EMJ N[WEJKWWGUG@K YLKA^U

Lmfn{~h >5 Fmu >2=2

Nu Yla~wykj Ra``key