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Functional relationships & decision tools for EAF:
Functional relationships & decision tools for EAF:
Evaluating environmental, ecosystem, and anthropogenic
impact
Evaluating environmental, ecosystem, and anthropogenic
impact
NOAA WS, Key Largo, Feb 2005NOAA WS, Key Largo, Feb 2005 Villy Christensen, UBCVilly Christensen, UBC
Modeling process
Fishing
Ecosystem model
(predation, competition,
age structured)
(B0, BCC) Log Likelihood
PredictedC, B, Z, W,
diets(Z0)
(Diet0)
Climate Nutrientloading
ObservedC,B,Z,W,
dietsHabitat area
Strait of Georgia time series from assessments or surveys (dots) compared to Ecosim (line)
Strait of Georgia time series from assessments or surveys (dots) compared to Ecosim (line)
Model
Data
1950 2000
Ecosystems where models have been tested using historical trend data
Ecosystems where models have been tested using historical trend data
• E Bering Sea• Aleutian Islands• W&C GoAlaska• E GoAlaska• W Vancouver Island• Hecate Strait• Strait of Georgia • NE Pacific• Central N Pacific • FF Shoals, Hawaii• Central Chile
• E Bering Sea• Aleutian Islands• W&C GoAlaska• E GoAlaska• W Vancouver Island• Hecate Strait• Strait of Georgia • NE Pacific• Central N Pacific • FF Shoals, Hawaii• Central Chile
• Bay of Quinte• Oneida Lake• Scotian Shelf• Cheasapeake Bay• Tampa Bay• S Brazil Bight• North Sea • Baltic • S Benguela• Gulf of Thailand
• Bay of Quinte• Oneida Lake• Scotian Shelf• Cheasapeake Bay• Tampa Bay• S Brazil Bight• North Sea • Baltic • S Benguela• Gulf of Thailand
Estimated Primary Production Anomaly from NE Pacific ecosystem model compared to PDO
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
EwE
PPA
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
PDO
inde
x
NEPac PPA
PDO
Dave Preikshot, UBC FC
Estimated Primary Production Anomaly from BC shelf ecosystem model & BC upwelling index
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
EwE
PPA
-25-20-15-10-5051015
Upw
ellin
g in
dex
BC PPA
54N UI
Dave Preikshot, UBC FC
Nutrient loading• Florida Bay, Tampa Bay
and Chesapeake Bay;• Monthly wind, rain, river
runoff, nutrient loading;• The derived nutrient
loading time series is used to force simulations;
• Sea grass density mediation effects:– Chl. a and sea grass;– Epiphytes; – Habitat area for some