Fueling the Future COM 5467 Systems Thinking and Strategic Planning Mark Mulligan Yen-Shen “Sam” Chen Kai-Ping Wang Dina Cottrell Michelle Gonzales.

Fueling the Future

Fueling the FutureFueling the Future

COM 5467Systems Thinking and Strategic Planning

Mark Mulligan

Yen-Shen “Sam” Chen

Kai-Ping Wang

Dina Cottrell

Michelle Gonzales

Fueling the Future

Introduction by Mark Mulligan

Coal, Oil and Gas by Yen-Shen “Sam”

Nuclear by Kai-Ping Wang

New Energy by Dina Cottrell

Urban Infill by Michelle Gonzales

Conclusion by Mark Mulligan

CONTENTS

Fueling the Future

Presentation Outline

• Problem Statement - Fueling the Future ( Keeping the end results in mind )

• Identify U.S.’s current energy status– Resources – Process – Products – Output - Outcomes

• Introduce new technological solutions to offer a solution to what the system cycle should be.

Introduction

Fueling the Future

Organizational Elements

Resources Processes Products Outputs Outcomes

MEANS ENDS

WhatWhat IsIs

WhatWhat Should BeShould Be

Introduction

Fueling the Future

Some experts think that US energy consumption is part of the reason behind the 911 terrorist

attacks?

Keeping the end results in mind

Introduction

Fueling the Future

Some experts believe that fossil fuel emissions is leading to Global Warming.

Keeping the end results in mind

Introduction

Fueling the Future

Problem Statement – Fueling the Future

• The U.S. is too dependent on foreign oil, thus keeping our country focused on the middle east.

( The “Oil - Terrorism - War” Continuum )

• Coal Electric Plants and Automobile emissions are polluting the air and causing global warming.

• Philosophical conflicts between opinion leaders to solve future energy needs.

• Enormous financial costs in research and development to diversify energy needs.

Introduction

Fueling the Future

Introduction

Predicted changes in US energy consumption by the year 2100. Do we have philosophical conflicts

Fueling the Future

Introduction

U.S. Electric Net Generation by Energy Source

Fueling the Future

Electric plants are the major buyer of coal, accounting for 92% of all coal consumed.

Introduction

Fueling the Future

US Oil Imports

Introduction

Turning oil into gas for transportation vehicles accounts for 65% of US consumption.

Fueling the Future

Burning coal and oil causes air pollution by emitting sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide in the atmosphere, thus causing acid rain and contributing to global warming.

The End Result of the System Cycle

Introduction

Fueling the Future

Global Warming is Happening

•The U.S. has only 4% of the world’s population but produces nearly 25% of the global warming emissions.

•The U.S. produces more global warming emissions per capita than any other nation.

Introduction

Fueling the Future

Coal – Oil - Gas

Coal Oil Gas

Fueling the Future

Total U.S. Energy Consumption byPrimary Energy Source

Oil39.4%

Natural Gas22.8%

Coal23.1%

Other - 3.9%Hydro - 2.5%Nuclear - 8.4%

Source: DPA Energy Facts, Energy Statistic 2001Source: DPA Energy Facts, Energy Statistic 2001

Coal – Oil - Gas

Fueling the Future

Source :Energy information administration/ Annual Energy outlook 2006

Coal – Oil - Gas

Fueling the Future

(quadrillion Btu)

source :Energy information administration/ Annual Energy outlook 2006

Coal – Oil - Gas

Total energy production and consumption 1980-2030

Fueling the Future

Fig. 14.17, p. 338

MEXICO

UNITEDSTATES

CANADA

PacificOcean

AtlanticOcean

GrandBanks

Gulf ofAlaska

Valdez

ALASKABeaufort

Sea

Prudhoe Bay

ArcticOcean

PrinceWilliam Sound

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Trans Alaskaoil pipeline

CoalCoal

GasGas

OilOil

High High potential areapotential area

•Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%.

•We import 14% of the gas and 53% of the oil we use.

Coal – Oil - Gas

North American Energy Resources

Fueling the Future

• Coal production in the Untied States reached 1,112 million of tons in the year 2004

• Accounts for 51% of domestic energy production

Coal – Oil - Gas

Coal Production

Fueling the Future

Oil Imports --Too dependent on foreign oil

Coal – Oil - Gas

Fueling the Future

Where are global petroleum deposits located?Percent World Crude Oil Reserves by Country

Latin America

former USSR

China

Asia

USA

Europe

Africa

OPEC Countries

OPEC Countries Latin America former USSRChina Asia USAEurope Africa

67%

Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries:

Saudi ArabiaIranIraqVenezuelaKuwaitUAELibyaNigeriaIndonesiaAlgeriaQatar

USA 3%

Coal – Oil - Gas

Fueling the Future

U.S. Natural Gas Production vs. Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

Bc

fd

Consumption Production

Coal – Oil - GasB

illio

n C

ubic

Fee

t per

Day

Fueling the Future

• Oil Crisis---Too dependent on foreign oil

• Impacts of our reliance on dirty energy sources

- Global warming

- Health effects from air pollution

- Spills from oil

Oil Crisis and Dirty Impacts

Coal – Oil - Gas

Fueling the Future

• About 146 million people live in counties where monitored air pollution levels in 2002 reached unhealthy levels.

• Highway vehicles are a major contributor to air pollution in the U.S., producing 29-63% of key chemicals that cause smog and health problems.

Health Effects from Air Pollution

Coal – Oil - Gas

Fueling the Future

Spills from oil

• 1.7 million gallons of petroleum are spilled into U.S. waters from vessels and pipelines in a typical year

• A single major spill can double that amount.

Coal – Oil - Gas

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

Global United States Problems

Fueling the Future

•The first commercial nuclear power stations started operation in the 1950s.

•There are now some 441 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 31 countries, with a total capacity of about 368 gigawatts.

•They supply 16% of the world's electricity, as base-load power, and their efficiency is increasing.

The Global Picture Today

Nuclear

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

Note: Taipower uses nuclear energy to generate 22% of electricity on the island of Taiwan.

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

• The USA has over 100(104) nuclear reactors.

• Producing a total of 97,400 megawatts (electric), which is approximately 20 percent of the nation's total electric energy consumption.

• Extension of reactor lifetimes and new reactors.

Nuclear Power in US Today

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

•Great damage to the environment: Waste heat in water systems/ Solid waste

•Health effect on population near nuclear plants

•Serious risks such as accident or attack

•The proliferation of nuclear weapons

Problems

Fueling the Future

Nuclear

video

Fueling the Future

Renewable Energy

Wind Solar Hydroelectric

BiomassElectric Vehicles Hydrogen Fuel Cell

Fueling the Future

• 6% of renewable electricity

• 0.1 percent of total U.S. electricity supply

• Research and redesigns have cut cost for wind energy by 80 percent

• Used as stand-alone applications, or connected to a utility power grid

• Large amounts of Space and noise

Wind Power

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

• Personal wind power

• Built-up areas on roof tops

• Quite and cost less

• Cuts cost of electricity by two-thirds

Wind Power

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

• 1% of renewable electricity

• 0.02 percent of total U.S. electricity supply

• Heat water, lighting buildings or walk ways

• Reduces need by about two-thirds

Solar Power

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

High Efficient Solar Power

• Break through in highly efficient solar power technology

• Thin layer of a unique metal alloy and cheap

• Homes completely self-sufficient

• Meet demands even in winter

Renewable Energy

Fueling the FutureFueling the Future

Hydroelectric Power

• 266 Billion kilowatts

• Generates 7% of nation’s energy

• Leon County has an C.H. Corn hydroelectric plant

Renewable Energy

Fueling the FutureFueling the Future

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Power

• Fifty million tons of hydrogen is produced each year worldwide

• Nine million tons being consumed in the U.S.

• Generates about 10% of the nation's energy

• Water, biomass, coal, natural gas

Renewable Energy

Fueling the FutureFueling the Future

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Power

Renewable Energy

• 65% of the oil consumed in the United States is used for transportation

• Doesn’t contribute to groundwater pollution and harmful emissions

• One gallon of water = One gallon of gasoline

Fueling the Future

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

Electric Vehicles

• Lithium battery pack technology provides 100% of the energy

• Zero emission vehicle

• Speeds in excess of 90 MPH

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

Electric Vehicles

Renewable Energy

Flex-fuel vehicles can run on either gasoline or ethanol.

Today there are over 1.5 GM flex-fuel vehicles on the road.

Fueling the Future

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

Renewable Energy

Fueling the Future

• Biomass: any plant derived organic matter available on a renewable basis

• Develop and improve technology to produce biofuels (ethanol), make plastics and chemicals

Biomass

Fueling the Future

Turning Waste Into Oil

Resource: http://www.changingworldtech.com

Biomass

Fueling the Future

Some scientist say that algae can help with fueling the future.

Biomass

Source: http://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/000607.html

Fueling the Future

Brazil makes ethanol from sugar cane accounting for 40% of it’s nations

automobile energy supply.

Biomass

Fueling the Future

The End Results• According to the Department of Homeland Security, less

terrorists threats on our country.

• According to the U.S. Military, fewer deployment of troops around the world fighting battles.

• According to the Department of Energy, less dependency on foreign imported energy, less consumption fossil fuel energy, more use of renewable energy.

• According to the EPA – a cleaner and more healthier environment

• Philosophical harmony between opinion leaders by adhering more to the “Leaver Philosophy” purported by Daniel Quinn.

Conclusion

Fueling the Future

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Urban Sustainability

• Enhanced well-being of cities or urban regions

• Integrated economic, ecological, and social components

• Maintains the quality of life for future generations

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

National Competitive Advantage

• A nation’s competitive advantage is directly related to the performance of its cities

• Ultimate goal is to retain & enhance competitive position in the global economy

• Understanding the measures and policies that determine quality of life

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Efficient Use of Resources

• Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

• Natural resources

• Resources may also include social and economic resources

• Management of future and existing growth

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Growth Management: South Florida

• 2002 Census Miami-Dade County 2.33 million residents

• 5 persons per sq. mile (census.gov)

• Continued astronomical growth forecasted for future

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Florida Growth Management • “Blueprint for action that better ensures

quality communities well into the future”

• Growth Management Study Commission

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Miami Sprawl: 1913 vs. 1997

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Urban Infill?• Takes into account forgotten lands that can be

profitable & efficient areas

• Revitalizes older urban neighborhoods

• Promotes economic development

• Increases affordability of urban housing

• Improvements in infrastructure & transportation

• More livable urban areas

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Plight of Downtown Miami • Once bustling downtown cores

• Today relegated to “No Man’s Lands”

• Blighted and neglected

• Economic disinvestment

• Few housing opportunities

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Time for Change is NOW

“Where there are now few restaurants, there will be robust dining options. Where there are empty sidewalks after hours, there will be sidewalks filled with shopping and entertainment…” (Miami Downtown Development Agency, n.d)

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Smart Growth & Infill Development

• Smart Growth: environmentally friendly, economic driven, supports livability

• Encourages recycling of developed sites, mixed-uses, infill development, auto alternatives

• Infill at higher densities & intensities

• Discourages urban sprawl

• Preserves open space

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Advancing Efficient Use of Land

• Changes to current zoning that contribute to more economic & efficient uses of land

• Special designation

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Magic City

• Revitalize downtown’s identity

• Economic Reinvestment

• Increased housing affordability

Urban Infill

Fueling the Future

Miami DDA• http://www.miamidda.com/

Urban Infill