Fuel Use in Electricity Generation

Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference Casefor
June 27, 2012 | Washington, DC
J. Alan Beamon, Director, Office Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables
Analysis, EIA
Fuel Use in Electricity Generation The changing landscape
Cost of coal and natural gas delivered to electric power plants in
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, Jan 2007- April 2012
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mid-Atlantic Coal
and Southeast, Jan 2007- April 2012
3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mid-Atlantic Coal
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
coal natural gas nuclear hydro other renewables other
J. Alan Beamon
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Projections
History
J. Alan Beamon
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Projections History
options, led by growth in renewables and natural gas
6
2010
24%
20%
45%
10%
1%
38%
28%
1%
Nuclear
• Different relative fuel prices
• Changing policies and regulations
8 J. Alan Beamon
BPC, June 27, 2012
Natural Gas Price Sensitivities (Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices in 2010 dollars per mmBtu)
2025 2035
Lowest 3.45 4.25
Reference 5.63 7.37
Highest 6.93 8.26
Coal Price Sensitivities (Coal Prices to Power Plants in 2010 dollars per mmBtu)
2025 2035
to 2035 % 2025 2035
Lowest 4,104 4,393 0.5%
Reference 4,311 4,716 0.8%
Highest 4,508 5,082 1.1%
0 2 4 6 0 2500 5000 7500
Natural Gas Price Sensitivities Coal Price Sensitivities Electricity Use
Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices
(2010 dollars per mmBtu)
(2010 dollars per mmBtu) Billion kilowatthours
2025 2035
Higher / Lower
Electricity Demand
Higher / Lower
Coal Prices
Higher / Lower
Reference Low Economic Growth
High Coal Cost High Estimated Ultimate Recovery
Low Estimated Ultimate Recovery High Technically Recoverable Resources
Reference 05 Low Gas Price 05
billion kilowatthours
2035 coal generation
Higher / Lower
Reference Low Economic Growth
High Coal Cost High Estimated Ultimate Recovery
Low Estimated Ultimate Recovery High Technically Recoverable Resources
Reference 05 Low Gas Price 05
billion kilowatthours
2035 Natural gas generation
14 J. Alan Beamon
BPC, June 27, 2012
Higher / Lower
30% 36% 34%
32% 31% 24% 38% 29% 33%
20% 18% 19% 18% 17% 18% 17% 19% 17% 18% 17%
10% 15% 15% 16% 15% 17% 14% 16% 14% 15% 15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
gigawatts
Higher / Lower
Horizons
Renewables
Nuclear
16 J. Alan Beamon
BPC, June 27, 2012
Higher / Lower
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
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International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual