www.ftthcouncilmena.org FTTH Council MENA Webinars Series 5G enabled by FTTH in the MENA region 20 June 2018
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FTTHCouncilMENAWebinarsSeries5GenabledbyFTTHintheMENAregion20June2018
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Ø 20-25 minutes presentationØ 15-20 minutes Q&A
Ø Please write your questions in the question box of the webinar systemØ Relevant questions that are not answered during the webinar will be answered
by email
Ø The slides will be available for download after the webinarØ The webinar is recordded and can be viewed as video-stream afterwards. The
video will be available on the website of the FTTH Council MENA within one week
Ø Slides and information about the availability will be sent to registered attendees by email
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@ftthcouncilmena
ModeratorPresenterPresenter
Roland MontagnePrincipal AnalystDirector Business Development
Vanesa DiazT&T Committee l FTTH Council MENA Market Development Manager EMEA
CORNING
Christine BeylouniDirector General l FTTH Council MENA
Today’s Webinar and Presenters5G enabled by FTTH in the MENA region
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Smartphones allow mobile operators to enter into the Gigabit race
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Research & Standardization
Commercialization
AMPS, NTM1G • Analog voice
GSM/GPRS/EDGE2G • Digital voice
WCDMA/HSPA3G • Mobile data
LTE/LTE Advanced4G • Mobile broadband data
How does MENA region position globally on LTE technology?
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LTE global picture: momentum in MENA is really tangible
Source: IDATE DigiWorld, World LTE Markets - 5G Initiatives & MBB Spectrum, December 2017
LTE subscriptions estimates (million SIMs)
• LTE in MENA is growing robustly in termsof subscribers and deployments• 50,000 LTE subscribers as at YE2016
• 90,000 as at YE2017 (+80% AGR)
• >400,000 subscribers expected at YE2021
• LTE in Africa is also spreading
050100150200250300350400450500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
• LTE has been launched by 164 operators in 58 countries in MENA (incl. FWA networks)*
• Many LTE drivers • The price of LTE handsets has come down significantly• Mid-range devices have arrived. Fixed networks are unable to meet the broadband
demand• Although spectrum availability and affordability have improved, they still remain a major
hurdle• Pricing and affordability of LTE data is another major challenge LTE roll-outs in 2018 in MENA
Source: IDATE DigiWorld, 2018
LTEnot-spotsLTEplansLTEcommercialLTE-Advancedcommercial
*Source: GSA 2018
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5G is a Revolutionary Technology
• Enhanced mobile broadband data• Support extremely low latency transmission• Connect millions of low-bandwidth demand devices
5G
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Research & Standardization
Commercialization
AMPS, NTM1G • Analog voice
GSM/GPRS/EDGE2G • Digital voice
WCDMA/HSPA3G • Mobile data
LTE/LTE Advanced4G • Mobile broadband data
Although 5G workable standards are expected by 2018-2020, mobile networks are already undergoing a network transformation in preparation for 5G
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Multi-gigabit 5G is not only about very high data speeds
5Gparameters
• Multi-gigabitsuser/peakdatarate>10Gbps• Highmobility• Lowernetworkcoasts• Increasedconnectiondensity• Verylowlatency<1ms• 99,999%reliability• Lowenergyconsumption
• Newbusinessopportunitieswith5G• 3majorusagescenarios:
eMBB/MMTC/URLLC• By2035,5Gwillenable$12.3trillionofglobaleconomic
output,support22millionjobsandwillfuelsustainablelong-termgrowthtoglobalrealGDP
5Gusagecases
Source:ITU-TM.2083
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Radio Access Network (RAN)
2G/3G/4G
Mobile and fixed networks are both wireless at the edge only
Fixed Network Mobile NetworkCore Core
Metro Metro
Fixed Access Network
xDSL xPON
Feeder
Distribution
Drop
xDSL, G.Fast
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Centralized RAN
RRHRRH
RRHRRH
Fronthaul(CPRI)
Optical fiber
For applications/systems that need:• Super high data rate• Very low latency
Both Backhaul and Fronthaul Links will Coexist
BBU
BBU BBU
Distributed RAN
RRHRRH
RRH RRH
TDM/Ethernet
MSC
Backhaul
RRHRRH
For applications/systems that need:• Loose latency requirements• Low bandwidth
Optical fiber, microwave, millimeter or copper
BBUBBU
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RRH RRH
RRH
The Value of Centralized RAN and Fronthaul Links
RRH RRH
RRH
Centralised BBU
RRH RRH
RRH
Fronthaul LinkCell Site
PerformanceInter-cell communicationVirtual-RAN enabled
RAN SimplificationTechnology agnosticFaster cell deployments
OpEx ReductionUp to 40-50% energy reductionReduced cell-site footprint
5G and IoT ReadySuper low latency
BBU3
BBU2
BBU1
MSC
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How Much Fiber Fronthaul Links Need Varies
Fiber Rich(Dedicated) Fiber Optimized(Multiplexing)
PassiveWDM:onelambdaperRRHDedicatedP2Plinks:onefiberperRRH
• 2G=1RRH• 3G(1800&2100MHz)=2RRHs• LTE(800&2600MHz)=2RRHs
x3sectorialantennas=Total15RRHsx2CPRInobidirectional=Total30f
• WDMtechnologiesnotbidirectional• 1fibereachdirectionneeded
24-36fpermacrocellsite6-8fpersmallcell+12fibersfor5G
2fiberspersite
RRHRRH
RRH RRHRRH
RRH
BBUBBU
Operators’ choice will depend on rental expenses, electricity costs and fiber availability
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Optical Fiber is preferred for both backhaul and fronthaul
Fiber Air
Global Mobile Backhaul Links
Global Mobile Backhaul Connections by Medium
Perc
enta
ge o
f Mob
ile B
ackh
aul C
onne
ctio
ns 100%
75%
50%
25%
0%CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21
Copper
• Fiber is increasingly used as a medium for backhaul connections
Source:IHS2017
Global Mobile Fronthaul Links
Num
ber o
f Fro
ntha
ulC
onne
ctio
ns
(Milli
ons)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0CY15 CY16 CY21CY20CY19CY18CY17
Fiber Air
• Fiber is the dominant medium for fronthaul connections
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5G and FTTH are complementary technologies
Source: FTTH Council
Fixed networks: many operators are over provisioning fiber with spare ports left opened to be configured in the future as P2P connections
2. Both networks need fiber in the access
Mobile networks: 5G, densification and centralized architectures ultimately demand more fiber
56% 22%
22%
Cost Breakdown of FTTH Access Networks
Civil Works
Labor
Material
1. Telecom industry will have fewer players and thoseremaining will have both networks
VODAFONE – ONOSpain
EE – BTUK
Orange – JazztelSpain
VODAFONE – ZiggoThe Netherlands
Mobile Fixed MSO
Fixed TelcoMobile
Mobile Fixed Telco Mobile Fixed
MSO
It not longer makes sense to deploy fixed and mobile networks in silos, but to reutilize assets
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Leveraging Passive Optical Networks (PONs)
EnterpriseResidential
Cell siteDAS
GPONOLT
DAS host unit
Central Office Cabinet
BBU
NG-PON2 and XGS-PON can be an evolution path
All fibers are combined on the same optical fiber (DWDM or CWDM)
Signal is split and distributed
By consolidating services into a single fibre network, users can increase bandwidth while reducing cost and infrastructure
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Challenges surrounding 5G remain: spectrum, standardization, business models and use cases…
5G global picture: high potential for MENA on a long term, GCC on shorter term
Very heterogeneous regional overview
5G partnerships and trials: pace of times accelerated
• MoUs reflected in several trials validating technologies and requirements: latency, download peak speeds, Massive MIMO…
Almost no 5G plans so far for African countries• Especially where LTE services have not been launched at end-
2017
• Where LTE services are commercial at mid-2017 but for a relatively short time (2/3 years)
• Trials in South Africa started with MTN
Some 5G plans in GCC countries: pre-standard form starting 2019 in specific regions within the GCC and a commercial rollout to the wider metropolitan areas by 2019• One of the first region to launch LTE in September 2011; Deployment of
LTE-Advanced at a quick pace since 2014.
• Adoption of LTE services was slow at launch but take-up accelerated thanks to the growing penetration of smartphones, improved coverage and increased data demand
• In some countries, LTE-Advanced Pro has just been launched at end-2017 and VoLTE is alive
• Some players announced 5G plans, promoted 5G trials and results
• They want to maintain their LTE leadership in 5G
• 2019 is the year of launch in GCC : UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar ahead
• UAE: trials in 2017-2018, Etisalat first 5G commercial network? FWA services available in May, commercial services in September with fixed devices in selected locations, Due in 2019?
• Qatar: Ooredoo first 5G commercial network on 3.5 GHz band? No device available
• Saudi Arabia: STC launch of 5G network; devices to be available in 2019
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Expected 5G timetables, compared
Rel. 14: 5G study items Rel. 15: first 5G stds Rel. 16: end 5G stds Rel. 17Rel. 13: 4G+
WRC-15 WRC-19
Technical requirements and evaluationmethodology Proposals Evaluation and specification
5G Technical trials
Japanese
5G R&D / 5G trials 5G implementation
5G product R&D trial
5G implementation5G R&D / 5G trials
5G trials Early commercial5G R&D
Pre R&D stds
Phase 2Phase 1 Phase 3
NSA implementation
2017 2018 2019 202020162015
Trials Pre-commercial
Korean
Pre-commercial
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4G/5G spectrum issues in MENA
Source: GSA
UAE Cellular bands below 6 GHz
LTE roll-outs in 2016 in MENA
Source: TRA
In the MENA region, LTE is globally using:• 800/1800 MHz frequencies for LTE-FDD• 2300 MHz frequencies for LTE-TDD• 2600 MHz for both LTE-FDD and LTE-TDD
Need of low and high frequencies for 5G• Low frequencies for full coverage and capacity• High frequencies for very high data rates
Considered very high bands for WRC-19 studies (above 24 GHz)• 29.45 GHz already allocated to mobile on a primary basis• 3.6 GHz which require additional allocations to the mobile service
Bands identified at WRC-15 and likely to be identified for mobile atWRCs in EMEA
• Pushing 700 MHz identified at WRC-15• Pushing 3.4-3.8 GHz identified at WRC-15• Supporting 26 GHz as pioneer bands in ME and North Africa• Preliminary conclusions of the a group of regulators (ASMG) expected soon• 450-700 MHz likely to be considered at WRC-23
Indeed, the C-band likely to be a 5G band at regional level• Large blocks available• UAE: 3.4-3.6 GHz identified as prime 5G band, 3.6-3.8 GHz considered• Qatar on 3.4-3.8 GHz and mmwaves• Saudi Arabia: 3.6-3.8 GHz temporary licenses awarded for trials
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The costs of 5G deployments vs. FTTH deployments
Source: METIS-II, D1.2 V1.0
A few estimated rough cost numbers for a whole network• 300 billion USD according to a 2016 Barclays report• 300-500 billion EUR according to Deutsche Telekom in 2017• 5G upgrades in EU28 estimated at 57 billion EUR by the EU Commission according to the
Financial TimesBig caveats on the CAPEX front
• Several spectrum bands used with implications on network deployment• A very high number of small cells• Re-use of older network equipment such as backhaul, software-reconfigurable technologies
used in 4G and 5G• Use of active antennas, more expensive than current ones• Sharing…
Source: Analysis Mason,2016, Costing the new potential connectivity needs
Standalone costs, sharing included
Wireless infrastructure
Fibreinfrastructure
Additional costswithout sharing
44
38
8111
Tota
l Inv
estm
ent c
ost
(EU
R B
illion
)
Macro cell Small cell
73
But some preliminary techno-economic studies…subject to uncertainties & assumptions!• Cumulated discounted cash flow analysed by the 5G PPP METIS-II projecs
− Access and backhaul network CAPEX and OPEX considered only (core network, commercial expenditure not included)
− Launch in 2021 in a European market for a dense urban area (where it is more profitable)− In all situations, 5G deployment is financially profitable for a MNO in dense urban areas
(under defined traffic and costs assumptions)• Total investment cost modeled on a standalone basis (Analysis report, 2016) to reach population
coverage of:− 95%: 55 billion EUR ow 11 for the fibre infrastructure− and of 100%: 119 billion EUR ow 81 for the fibre infrastructure− Underlying hypotheses: cost of a small cell at 1,000 EUR in 2025 due to high volumes, 50%
of cells connected via fibre.50 Mbps delivered. Radius of small cell=200m
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5G enabled by FTTH in the MENA region Summary
• 5GandtheIoT aredrivingultra-dense,superhigh-speedlowlatencynetworks
• Mobilenetworksmustevolve:
• DistributedRAN(withbackhaullinks)à CentralizedRAN(withfronthaul links)
• Fronthaul linksrequireopticalfiber– howmuchdependsonP2Pvs.multiplexing
• Forefficientnetworkoperation,Mobilevs.Fixedsilosmustworktogether
• Fixed-MobileNetworkConvergence:savesdeploymentcostsintheaccessmakingapositivebusinesscaseforfibertoultimatelymake5Gareality
• TimehasacceleratedinGCCcountries.TheMiddleEastgetsreadyfor5G…
• Butitissoearlythannoonecanuseitwithoutany5G-compatiblehandsets,expectedin2019
• Africancountriesarelaggingbehind.
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Q&A
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Thank you for your attention!