Indonesia Automotive Outlook: 2013 Indonesia Automotive Outlook: 2013 Presented by Presented by Vivek Vaidya Vivek Vaidya Vice President of Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific Vice President of Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific 17 17 th th January 2013 January 2013
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Frost & Sullivan 2013 Indonesia Automotive Market Outlook
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Indonesia Automotive Outlook: 2013Indonesia Automotive Outlook: 2013
Presented byPresented by
Vivek VaidyaVivek VaidyaVivek VaidyaVivek Vaidya
Vice President of Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia PacificVice President of Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific
1717thth January 2013January 2013
CONTENTS
Indonesia Automotive Recap of 2012
Indonesia Automotive Outlook 2013
2
Indonesia hit the 1 million unit volume the first time in the history
894.164
1.116.000
794.081
1.450.000
600.123 618.000
Total Industry Volume (TIV), 2011 and 2012
3 3
2011 2012 (f)
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
• Indonesia surpassed 1-million unit sales and important landmark to gain importance globally
• Thailand regained number 1 position, after spectacular recovery from flood-crisis in 2011
• Malaysia in the other hand were keeping the similar volume with the tightening finance policy
Source: AAF, Gaikindo, MAA, TAIA (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan Analysis. Note: All figures are rounded.
541.475 601.945780.500
223.235292.218
335.500
2010 2011 2012 (f)
Indonesia : Growth in 2012 supported by strong economic factors, successful
new model launches and postponement of fuel price increase
Commercial Vehicle Monthly Sales, Indonesia (2012)
Indonesia – commercial vehicle : Pickup and truck sales growth supported by
manufacturing and retail sectors
Vehicle Segment % growth (2011-2012)
Bus 2.4%
Pickup/Truck 15.4%
Double Cab 8.3%
Total CV 14.8%
Passenger Vehicle Market Share
Festivity
holidays
Export and some
industry slowing
down
7
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly s
ale
s b
y s
eg
me
nts
(u
nit
s)
Total CV Bus Pickup/Truck Double Cab
Bus
1,3%
Pickup/
Truck
93,0%
Double
Cab
5,7%
2012
Bus
1,4%
Pickup
/Truck
92,5%
Double
Cab
6,1%
2011
7
Source: Gaikindo (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan analysis. Data is for commercial vehicles only Note: All figures are rounded.
Passenger Vehicle Market Share
Toyota, Suzuki and Honda gain market shares while Mitsubishi and Daihatsu
lose market share despite volume growth
13,9% 15,0% 13,3%
9,3% 10,6% 11,3%
8,0% 5,1% 6,2%
4,9% 6,3% 6,0%
3,1% 3,2% 3,0%
8,5% 9,5% 9,2%
Vehicle Market Share by OEMs (2010-2012)
Suzuki
Honda
Nissan
Isuzu
Others
1,116,000 (f)764,710 894,164• Toyota retains market leadership with
market share of about 36%
• Market share up by 1% as compared to 2011
due to successful launch of all new Avanza
• Daihatsu has shown good volume growth
due to strong performance of Xenia but the
market share drops by 1%
8
36,7% 34,7% 36,3%
15,5% 15,6% 14,6%
13,9% 15,0% 13,3%
2010 2011 2012
8
Toyota
Daihatsu
Mitsubishi• Suzuki gains 1.1% market share with the high
sales of its new MPV model Ertiga.
• Honda gains 1% share due to strong showing
of Brio and new CR-V
• Mitsubishi, in the other hand, has lost 1.5%
market share.
• Mitsubishi may decide to focus on passenger
car segment a lot more to reverse the trend
in 2013
Source: various media (2012 ytd Nov) Frost & Sullivan analysis. Note: All figures are rounded
Healthy domestic led economic growth supported the automotive sector to
increase its volumes
1,7%2,3%
3,8%
1,9%
2,9%3,4%
-1,4%
1,6%
2,9%3,5%
-1,3%
1,4%
2,8%3,2%
Q1
'09
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
'10
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
'11
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
'12
Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP Growth Rates, 2009- 2012(f)
2009: 4.6% 2010: 6.2% 2011: 6.5% 2012(f): 6.2%
9 9
-2,4%
-1,4% -1,3%
Agriculture,
Livestock,
Forestry and
Fishery
15,1%
Mining and
Quarrying
12,1%
Manufacturing
23,7%
Construction
10,3%
Trade, Hotel
and Restaurant
13,7%
Others
25,1%
Economic Activity Breakdown, 2012(f)
Source: Central Bureau of Statistic (2012 ytd Q3); Analysis: Frost & Sullivan
• Indonesia ‘s economic growth expected to
be slightly above 6%
• This is marginal decline as compared to
2011 due to the slowing export demand for
commodity and restriction of mining
product export
• Manufacturing sector still remaining the
biggest contributor; construction sector saw
high growth in 2012
Model launches in 2012: most covering the biggest segment 4x2 with various
body type – MPV, city car, SUV
Suzuki
Ertiga
Toyota
Nav1
Mazda
MPV & SUV (~12 new models) Sedan & City Cars (~7) CV
Honda
All New CR-V
Volkswagen
Mitsubishi
Outlander
Toyota
All New Camry
Honda
All New Civic
Suzuki
All New Swift Chevrolet
Suzuki
Mega Carry
Extra
Mazda
New BT-50
10
Mazda
Biante
Nissan
Evalia
Chevrolet
Spin
Volkswagen
New Caravelle
Volkswagen
New Touareg
Audi
Q3
Hyundai
New Santa Fe
Suzuki
New Grand
Vitara (facelift)
Mitsubishi
Mirage
Ford
All New Focus
Peugeot
208
Honda
Brio
Chevrolet
All New
Colorado
Ford
New Ranger
Isuzu
Giga F-series
CONTENTS
Indonesia Automotive Recap of 2012
Indonesia Automotive Outlook 2013
11
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
2010 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f)
Real GDP
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Trade, Hotel, & Restaurant
Others
Economic Outlook 2013 : GDP growth expected to be about 6% fuelled by
domestic consumption
Economic Growth Rate, 2009 – 2012 (f)
12
2010 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f)
12
• GDP growth is expected to remain stable around 5 – 6%
• Will rely strongly on domestic economy and the inflowing investmentReal GDPReal GDP
• Still the biggest contributing sector
• Shall see some growth with the condition of realization happening in 2013 from potential investment
ManufacturingManufacturing
• With the growing domestic economy, the possibly growing sectors would be the sectors contributing much to the domestic economy, likely will be constructions; agriculture, livestock, forestry & fishery; electricity, gas and water supply
Growing sectors
Growing sectors
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) initiative is likely to benefit Indonesia
Areas Level Impact
SalesLargest market in ASEAN. The high growth phase is expected to continue. AEC will not
be impacting growth as such.
ProductionThe local manufacturing is likely to see a big jump as Indonesia becomes more
attractive as a regional hub for production
13
Market ConcentrationIncrease in competitive activity as Indonesia becomes more attractive in terms of a
large market, lower costs and regional access
Retail NetworkIncrease in number of dealers as new players enter the market and tackle the
geographic complexity of the market
Vehicle ExportsExports are likely to grow as AEC and FTAs will make it easier for OEMs to set up base
and supply to other markets
Supplier BaseThe relatively ‘under-developed’ vendor base is likely to get a boost as more OEMs
come in to set up assembly and cater to the region
Very favorable No impact Less favorable
Indonesia Auto 2013: Economic-driven marketIndonesia market growth will rely on economical drivers
Indonesia’s growth in automotive sector in recent years has largely being impacted by the nature and long
term factors. They have driven the market previously, and still will drive the market on 2013 onwards.
• Positive growing economy, has been above 6%, and predicted to be still at least 6% for 2013
• Some minor issues from regulations arising and corruption cases; but so far have not been impacting much to automotive and the market
• Anticipation in 2013 for 2014 general electionStable politics
14
• Along better economy, arising the population of middle class, supported by huge young population
• Indonesia is predicted to have golden productivity period up to 2025; which will create more potential middle classes
Growing middle class
Increasing income level
• Indonesia’s growing economy is still very attractive for more investment
• Automotive sector investment reach 70% growth rate, valued more than US$ 1.3 billion as of 3rd quarter of 2012
• 2013 investment flow is expected to still grow around 30%
Continuous investment
flow
• Proven by increasing domestic consumption
• 2013 economy may as well strongly rely to its high domestic consumption
Indonesia Auto 2013: 6 key factors would impact growth in 2013
• The official announcement of the program might boost the market as there will be more affordable vehicles as options
LEC-LCGC Program
• Official electricity tariffs increment taken place
• Options of restriction or price increment on fuelRollback of subsidies
• Ever-high increment on minimum labor wages might impact the production cost of supplying industry
Increasing standard labor minimum wages
15 15
supplying industrylabor minimum wages
• Enforcement of minimum down payment to sharia financing by April 2013 will limit finance options to marketVehicle financing policy
• Increment of higher standard to Euro3 or 4 might need procedural cost, impacting to higher vehicle selling price
Emission standard
• Possible increment on tax: title transfer fee, progressive tax or luxury tax �increasing ownership cost
Increasing vehicle tax rate
Commercial Vehicles
335.500
Commercial Vehicles
360.000
Total Industry Volume, 2012-2013 (Indonesia)
Frost & Sullivan projects TIV to reach 1.2 million with 7.5% growth rate
7.3%
TIV :
1,116,000
TIV :
1,200,000
16
Passenger Vehicles
780.500
Passenger Vehicles
840.000
335.500
2012 2013 (f)
16
7.6%
7.3%
Assumptions for 1.2 million TIV forecast
Positive Factors
• Stable economic and political conditions in Indonesia
• Investments in construction and infrastructure continue at the same rate
• Timely implementation of LCE-LCGC program
17
• Timely implementation of LCE-LCGC program
Negative Factors
• Minimal impact of roll back of fuel subsidy and vehicle finance policy
• Uncertainties in global economy
Passenger Vehicles would continue to grow to reach 840,000 units in 2013
Total Industry Volumes by Vehicle Segments, 2012 and 2013
Passenger vehicles :
780,500
Passenger Vehicles :
840,000
4X2Pa
sse
ng
er
Ve
hic
les
Sedan
4X4
10%
7%
7%
18
2012 2013 (f)
18
• 4X2 segment will remain the biggest segment as further market development shall be done for models
launched in 2012 where most of them are in category 4X2.
• 4X2 segment would remain the main driver in 2013 as well due to favorable duty regime and
impending LCGC launches which would be in the same segment
Commercial Vehicles market size would touch 360,000 in 2013
Total Industry Volumes by Vehicle Segments, 2012 and 2013
7%
8%
Co
mm
erc
ial
Ve
hic
les
Pickup
Double Cab
Bus 6%
Commercial Vehicle :
355,500
Commercial Vehicles
: 360,000
19
2012 2013 (f)
19
7%
• Pick-up and small trucks would grow due to growth in manufacturing and retail sector, which is largely
driven by consumption in domestic sector
• Heavy trucks likely to grow on strong performance of construction and infrastructure sector which is largely
driven by investments in this sector
Pickup/Truck
Conclusions
Indonesian Automotive market beat the predictions to reach 1 million units in 2012
Indonesia automotive 2013 will likely go up slow to 1.2 million units if economic conditions remain stable, investment flow and infrastructure
20 20
Indonesia automotive 2013 will likely go up slow to 1.2 million units if economic conditions remain stable, investment flow and infrastructure continues, there is timely announcement of LEC-LCGC program and impact of fuel subsidy roll back and vehicle financing policy is minimal
However, stringent policies such as fuel subsidy roll back, vehicle financing are implemented or if there is slowdown in global economic conditions volumes may decline and slip below 1 million units in 2013