Front Range Ozone Update to the Colorado Directors of Environmental Health Mike Silverstein April 17, 2008.

Front Range Ozone Update to the

Colorado Directors of Environmental Health

Mike Silverstein

April 17, 2008

2005 2006 2007 20088-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 3-yr. Avg. Highest4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. Allowable

Value Value Value Value 4th Max.Site Name AQS # (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm)

Welby 08-001-3001 0.073 0.069 0.070 0.070 0.115Highland 08-005-0002 0.080 0.081 0.075 0.078 0.098S. Boulder Creek 08-013-0011 0.076 0.082 0.085 0.081 0.087CAMP 08-031-0002 0.051 0.062 0.057 0.056 0.135Carriage 08-031-0014 0.074 0.072 0.076 0.074 0.106Chatfield State Park 08-035-0004 0.084 0.086 0.082 0.084 0.086USAF Academy 08-041-0013 0.077 0.072 0.071 0.073 0.111Manitou 08-041-0016 0.075 0.076 0.072 0.074 0.106Arvada 08-059-0002 0.078 0.082 0.078 0.079 0.094Welch 08-059-0005 0.064 0.081 0.080 0.075 0.093Rocky Flats North 08-059-0006 0.077 0.090 0.090 0.085 0.074NREL 08-059-0011 0.079 0.083 0.085 0.082 0.086Fort Collins - West 08-069-0011 --- 0.087 0.085 --- (0.085)Fort Collins 08-069-1004 0.076 0.078 0.069 0.074 0.107Weld County Tower 08-123-0009 0.078 0.082 0.074 0.073 0.098

Rocky Mtn. NP 08-069-0007 0.075 0.076 0.078 0.076 0.100

Three Year Average 4th Maximum Ozone Values*** 2007 data through 31 August ***

Year19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007

# of days232093227

220399

Days Greater than 84 ppb at Denver Metro Sites Year19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993

# of days6

13162381

101324104246# of days now includes all Front Range sites

Denver Metro and N. Front Range

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Year

Num

ber

of D

ays

≥ 0.090 ppm ≥ 0.085 ppm ≥ 0.080 ppm≥ 0.075 ppm ≥ 0.070 ppm

8-hour O3 1st maximum concentrations

How Does Colorado Compare to Other Areas?

Area 2006 8-hr 1st Max(ppb)

# of days >85 ppb

Los Angeles Metro 135 36

Houston 118 10

Atlanta Metro 108 11

St. Louis Metro 97 10

Kansas City Metro 99 2

Denver Metro (RFN) 94 5

Las Vegas 94 4

Phoenix 94 4

Salt Lake City 90 2

The Early Action Compact for Ozone

• Numerous agencies signed on to the Compact in 2002– Supported the planning efforts to comply with the

federal ozone standard by 2007• Though the plan fell just short of the ultimate goal – 1

part per billion,– Numerous controls were implemented and

emissions reduced• More than 180 tons/day of VOCs• More than 60 tons/day of NOx

– Public health was likely improved• The Compact terminated with EPA’s formal

designation of nonattainment on 11/20/2007 - Marginal

• A new plan is now required

Governor Ritter’s Directive

• Propose measures to reduce ozone further in the 2008 summer ozone season

• Submit a proposed plan to the AQCC by September 2008 to assure compliance with the federal standard

• Set a goal of reducing or eliminating ozone levels above 80 ppb

• Consider the addition of elements that would further reduce ozone levels in anticipation of a lower federal standard

Planning Goals

• Meet 1997 Ozone Standard (effectively 0.084 ppm) by 2010– per Federal requirements

• Reduce or eliminate ozone values above 0.080 ppm– per Governor Ritter’s directive

• Begin laying the groundwork to prepare a plan to meet the new Ozone Standard (0.075 ppm)– per Governor Ritter’s directive

VOC Emissions – 2010(4% reduction since 2006)

Non-Biogenic 2010 Nonattainment Area Inventory Tons per Day

Other O&G APEN8 t/d 2%

Large condensate tanks (APEN/Reg7)110 t/d 27%

Small condensate tanks19 t/d 4%

Other O&G Area14 t/d 3%

O&G Pneumatic devices29 t/d 7%

O&G Unpermitted Fugitives9 t/d 2%

Non-O&G Points (APEN)42 t/d 10%

Non-Road Sources61 t/d 14%

Mobile Sources (Highway) 71 t/d 17%

Vehicle Refueling6 t/d 1% Non O&G Area

57 t/d 13%

NOx Emissions – 2010(8% reduction since 2006)

2010 NAA NOx

Compressor Engines (APEN)

21 t/d 6%Other O&G Area

3 t/d 1%Drill rigs

12 t/d 3%

Exempt engines8 t/d 2%

Non O&G Area 22 t/d 7%

Mobile Sources (Highway)

108 t/d 33%

Non-Road Sources61 t/d 18%

Non-O&G Points (APEN)

83 t/d 24%

Some Nonattainment Implications

• Region’s image• Transportation conformity

– Coordination between the transportation planning agencies – NFRMPO, UFR, DRCOG, CDOT – 30 years

• General conformity– Projects involving federal approvals have to

undergo more extensive review and justification

• Long-term planning: 20 - 30 years– NFR, APCD, RAQC, Counties, Cities, Towns

Some Nonattainment Implications

• Siting of new industrial sources– New and modified major sources subject to more

stringent New Source Review permitting requirements• Lowest achievable emission rate• Emission offsets

– Smaller sources:• APEN reporting thresholds reduced

– 1 tpy for VOC and NOx sources

• Permitting/RACT requirements more stringent– 2 tpy VOC sources– 5 tpy NOx sources

Process and Timeline for Developing an Attainment

Plan

• Agency discussions and stakeholder meetings began Fall 2007

• Technical work is underway• Control measure options are under development

– Measures will likely be proposed to go beyond 84 ppb

• Modeling and control strategy development will occur throughout 2008

• A plan will be drafted and proposed to the AQCC by September 2008

Stakeholder Process for Developing and Attainment

Plan• All stakeholders invited to participate in a collaborative and open process– Government, environmental, nonprofit and other

interest groups, business and industry, and citizens

• Stakeholder Workgroups:– Oil and Gas (VOCs)– Stationary Sources (VOCs)– Modeling and Technical Analyses– NOx– Mobile Sources/Fuels– Transportation

• Outcome-based process– Stakeholders work together to set goals and ensure they are met

Elements to be Addressed in the New Plan

• Complex technical analyses• Control measures to meet the

Governor’s directives – a “suite” of control options are under development– Stationary/oil & gas controls– Area/mobile/fuels controls– Contingency measures

• Setting of emission budgets for transportation conformity

• Demonstration of attainment by 2010

Next Steps April 2006/2010 base case modeling June 2010 sensitivity modeling April Initial strategy analyses

complete May-August RAQC considers modeling and

strategy analyses June Meet with NFRMPO June-August RAQC/APCD draft regulations September RAQC/NFR/APCD proposes draft

plan/regulations to AQCC

Oct.-Dec. AQCC prehearing process December AQCC hearing and

SIP/regulation adoption

January-May Legislative review July 1, 2009 Deadline to submit plan to EPA

EPA Review of the Ozone Standard

• EPA is promulgating a new, more stringent 8-hour ozone standard– 0.075 ppm or 75 ppb

• March 2009: States submit recommendations (2006-2008 data)

• March 2010: EPA makes designations (2006-2008 & 2007-2009 data)

• March 2013: SIPs due to EPA• 2015-2030: Attainment required (dependent on

severity of the problem)

Note: Potential litigation could delay this timeline

Days Above .075 ppm(Denver/North Front Range

Area)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Nu

mb

er o

f D

ays

>75 ppb >84 ppb

New standard: 3-yr avg. of 4th max 8-hour < 0.075 ppm

Counties violating:

Larimer, Weld, Boulder, Jefferson, Arapahoe,

Douglas