From the Lab to Ubiquity Speech Technologys Road to Mainstream Eric Chang, Ph.D. Assistant Managing Director MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center.

From the Lab to UbiquitySpeech Technology’s Road to Mainstream

Eric Chang, Ph.D.Assistant Managing DirectorMSR Asia Advanced Technology Center

Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology Eric Chang, MSR Asia Advanced Technology CenterCenter

Impact of Disruptive Impact of Disruptive Technology Technology

9/3/2004, 6:03 AM, Pacific Green Bay9/3/2004, 6:03 AM, Pacific Green Bay


Human Language Human Language Capability Capability


Technology Adoption Technology Adoption LifecycleLifecycle

Successful technology adoptions increase exponentiallyBut it’s not a smooth process, there is a “chasm”*

**Geoffrey Moore, Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the ChasmCrossing the Chasm



VisionarieVisionariess

LateLateMajorityMajority

EarlyEarlyAdopterAdopter LaggardsLaggardsEarlyEarly

MajorityMajority


Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle Lifecycle

VisionariesVisionariesEarly AdoptersEarly AdoptersEarly MajorityEarly MajorityLate MajorityLate MajorityLaggardsLaggards


VisionariesVisionaries Technology for technology’s sakeTechnology for technology’s sakeTechnology fansTechnology fansWon’t be a major market Won’t be a major market


Early AdopterEarly Adopter Adopts technology for its benefits Adopts technology for its benefits Not afraid to try something newNot afraid to try something new


Early MajorityEarly Majority

Will not be the first to adopt a new Will not be the first to adopt a new technology technology Practical and utilitarian Practical and utilitarian Heavily influenced by what other Heavily influenced by what other people are doingpeople are doingStrong “viral” effectStrong “viral” effect


Late MajorityLate Majority

Will adopt a technology only when Will adopt a technology only when necessarynecessaryBy this stage, a few dominant By this stage, a few dominant technology providers have emerged.technology providers have emerged.


Laggards Laggards

Suspicious of new technologySuspicious of new technologyCan get alone fine without new Can get alone fine without new technology technology


Discontinuous TechnologyDiscontinuous Technology

Not a simple extension of Not a simple extension of repackaging of existing technologyrepackaging of existing technologyAutomobile replacing horse and cartsAutomobile replacing horse and cartsTelephones replacing telegraphsTelephones replacing telegraphs



VisionarieVisionariess



MajorityMajority

ChasmChasm


Into the TornadoInto the Tornado

VisionariVisionarieses



MajorityMajority

TornadoTornado



Visionaries: Speech Search & Visionaries: Speech Search & TranscriptionTranscriptionEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Majority: Call Center Early Majority: Call Center AutomationAutomationLate Majority: LeapfrogLate Majority: LeapfrogLaggardsLaggards





Example: Visual Audio Example: Visual Audio NotebookNotebook


Example: Visual Audio Example: Visual Audio NotebookNotebook


Example: Automatic Example: Automatic Processing of VoicemailProcessing of Voicemail





Early Adopter: DictationEarly Adopter: Dictation

Continuous dictation first sold in 1996Continuous dictation first sold in 1996ShelfwareShelfware

English, Chinese, and Japanese English, Chinese, and Japanese dictation in Office XP in 2001dictation in Office XP in 2001Current statusCurrent status

Vital for people who need itVital for people who need itNo viral effect yetNo viral effect yetDifficulties in handling speaker accent, Difficulties in handling speaker accent, wearing microphone, individual wearing microphone, individual vocabularyvocabulary


Language is a live Language is a live mediummedium

Dalian: Dalian: 腕狭子腕狭子 Japan: WaiShaTsuJapan: WaiShaTsuEngland: White ShirtEngland: White ShirtUS: SuitUS: SuitJapan: SeBiRooJapan: SeBiRooEngland: Saville RowEngland: Saville Row






YearYear Nuance Nuance SalesSales

19961996 $ 1.5M$ 1.5M

19971997 $ 4.4M$ 4.4M

20012001 $ 23.0M$ 23.0M

20022002 $ 32.6M$ 32.6M

20032003 $ 42.1M$ 42.1M


The Business Value of Speech for Call Centers

Customer Focus

Less Time/Call

Efficient Agents

Less Time in Queue

Increased System Usage

Customer Retention

$5/call to $.20/call

Reduced Call Time

Fewer Agents

New Revenue Opportunities

Up-Sell/Cross-Sell


Amtrak61% Increase in Satisfaction

75% Increase in Automation Rate

90% Increase in Ticket Sales

Thrifty Car Rental40% increase in CSR productivity $1 million first year savings

Merrill LynchAutomation rates from 82% to 90%

First Year Savings $6.3M

Call Center Examples


The Business Value of Speech The Business Value of Speech for Operatorsfor Operators

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Data RevenueVoice Revenue

RevenueIn US$M

The mobile operators need to make money from value-added services!


Speech Makes Value-Added Speech Makes Value-Added Services UsableServices Usable

Calendaring / Email E-Commerce / Alerts

Search/BrowsingVoice Dialing

Location Based

Places: Auto Services

Speech SMS / MMS


Microsoft Speech Microsoft Speech Server & SDKServer & SDK

Extends ASP.NET and Visual StudioExtends ASP.NET and Visual StudioCall center + multimodal solutionCall center + multimodal solution

Unifies web & call centerUnifies web & call center

Reduces TCOReduces TCO

Introduced in March 2004Introduced in March 2004

Strong partner ecosystemStrong partner ecosystemStrategic partnerships with Intel, Intervoice, ScansoftStrategic partnerships with Intel, Intervoice, Scansoft

200+ Beta Program Applications200+ Beta Program Applications

300+ Partner Applications300+ Partner Applications

30,000 Speech SDK Users30,000 Speech SDK Users

ASP.NET

Speech

Speech SDK


Speech Speech Recognition: Recognition: Approaching Human Error RateApproaching Human Error Rate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Microsoft licensed CMU Sphinx-II

Whisper in MSR

Speech in Office XP

Speech in Tablet/Office 11

Speech in Longhorn HumanHumanError RateError Rate


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1982 1988 1994 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

The best system in the year

Natu

raln

ess

Text to Speech Text to Speech Approaching Human NaturalnessApproaching Human Naturalness

Na

tura

lne

ss

HumanHumanNaturalnessNaturalness



Visionaries: Meeting TranscriptionVisionaries: Meeting TranscriptionEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Adopters: DictationEarly Majority: Call Center Early Majority: Call Center AutomationAutomationLate Majority: LeapfrogLate Majority: LeapfrogLaggardsLaggards


What is Leapfrog?What is Leapfrog?

$50

$120

$15


Leapfrog’s TechnologyLeapfrog’s Technology

Crucial technologyCrucial technologySpeech compression technologySpeech compression technologyUsing simple touch sensitive screen Using simple touch sensitive screen with new books and speech coding with new books and speech coding chip.chip.

Sound business modelSound business model>80% highly recommendation rate >80% highly recommendation rate in Amazonin AmazonInvented by a lawyer trying to Invented by a lawyer trying to teach his 3 year old child to read!teach his 3 year old child to read!


Technology Adoption Technology Adoption Lifecycle:Lifecycle:Late Majority, Case of Late Majority, Case of LeapfrogLeapfrog

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2001 2002 2003

LeapfrogAnnual Sales inUS$M


SummarySummaryDisruptive technology adoption follows Disruptive technology adoption follows the technology adoption lifecyclethe technology adoption lifecycleNatural language understanding is Natural language understanding is hardhard

Domain-free reasoning & common sense Domain-free reasoning & common sense hardesthardestTruly human-level understanding likely Truly human-level understanding likely elusiveelusive

Adoption of speech technology will Adoption of speech technology will increaseincrease

2-3 years: telephony, multimodal, 2-3 years: telephony, multimodal, accessibility.accessibility.7-10 years: intelligent assistance, meeting 7-10 years: intelligent assistance, meeting search/transcription, speech everywhere. search/transcription, speech everywhere.


Acknowledgement Acknowledgement

Faculty Forum Speech, 2003, Kai-Fu Faculty Forum Speech, 2003, Kai-Fu LeeLeeCrossing the ChasmCrossing the Chasm, Geoff Moore, Geoff MooreInto the TornadoInto the Tornado, Geoff Moore, Geoff Moore

[email protected] [email protected]

http://Research.microsoft.com/users/echanghttp://Research.microsoft.com/users/echang

From the Lab to Ubiquity Speech Technologys Road to Mainstream Eric Chang, Ph.D. Assistant Managing Director MSR Asia Advanced Technology Center.

Documents

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