From MDGs to SDGs: David Hulme on global goals

From MDGs to SDGs: All Change or No Change for the Global

Governance of ‘Development’?David Hulme

Global Development InstituteUniversity of Manchester

22nd Bradford Development Lecture February 2016

www.gdi.manchester.ac.uk

•1 January 2016 MDGs retired, SDGs started•What does this tell us about global governance -

about the way the world is run?•Transformation - From Big ‘D’

to little ‘d’?

Introduction

•Evolution - Belated response to Rising Powers? •Bulls**t - World’s biggest

lie… ‘development’ remains marginal to the international agenda?

Robert Cox – Historical Structure

MaterialCapabilities

Institutio

ns

Ideas

MDGs – A brief history 1

•UN, a history of global goal setting. Successes (smallpox) and not so good (education for all)•Structural Adjustment (1980s) – ‘silly talk’•End of Cold War 1990 – return of UN summits,

rise of civil society, declarations galore• OECD-DAC 1995 and 1996 – need to “save”

foreign aid. Accidently create Intn’l Dev’t Goals•UN – needs a good Millennium General

Assem’y

MDGs to SDGs: a brief history 2

•Millennium Declaration – a UN diplomatic compromise•Negotiated to MDGs – an IMF, OECD, UN and

World Bank interpretation of the Declaration •Gradual adoption of MDGs by agencies (DFID

fast, IMF slow) and national governments•UN Secretariat moratorium on ‘what comes

after MDGs’ until 2012

MDGs to SDGs: a brief history 3

MDGs to SDGs: a brief history 4•OWG the powerhouse – UNGA G77 membership

takes ‘Rio+20’ as its base…global deliberations •MDG performance – Half full/empty…causality

The SDGs...or Global Goals?

So what has changed? Content 1

•Many additions• energy• growth and jobs • reducing inequality • peace and justice (governance) • many more environmental goals

So what has changed? Content 2

So what has changed? Content 2

•Holistic –from MDGs to national development•Leave nobody behind – from $1.25-a-day

poverty reduction to multi-dimensional poverty eradication•Universal – for all •National ownership

So what has changed? Processes

•The processes – big changes•From informal to formal ‘global governance’•From goals set by rich countries and aid

agencies to goals set by all UN member states•MDGs were driven by needs and preferences of

OECD members – especially aid agencies•By 2015 ‘development’ is a global agenda…not

just an aid agenda

So what has not changed?

•Non-binding agreement - as 2000 not a treaty – countries keen to avoid any possibility of imposition of SDGs•Results-based management format – primary

focus on delivery, not on social norms or negotiating structural change•Global partnership – the key mechanism is an

unspecified, multi-stakeholder ‘partnership(s)’

Understanding Change:Material Capabilities

•Global shift of productive capacity from West to East and South underpins MDG to SDG shift•Rise of the BRICs – especially rise of China and

ambition of Brazil as an international leader•Emerging middle powers – countries such as

Colombia, Indonesia and Turkey more engaged•Africa – empowered by economic growth and

access to finance from China and BRICS

Understanding Change:Material Capabilities

Understanding Changes – Ideas

•Continuity – poverty, human development, RBM, partnership…stronger sustainability•But also, lots of “new” ideas• Growth and jobs (inclusive and sustainable)

• Peace and reduced violence• Governance…justice…institutions

• Inequality reduction within and across countries

Understanding Changes:Institutions

World Bank/IMF = reduced influence

Understanding Changes:Institutions

•UN = arena for super-goal setting•Actors empowered by new material capabilities –

AU, Brazilian and Colombian governments•New financial institutions – AIIB, NDB, CRA•NGOs – from mobilising civil society to professional

advocates?

Transformation or Evolution?

•Depends on the framework you select and criteria it prioritises •In content terms can argue transformation –

inequality reduction, peace/conflict, governance/institutions…sustainability•In process terms then evolution, but an

accelerated evolution – BRICs, “Rio” and OWG•Or, “it is all about Paris”

Transformation or Evolution…or Both?

•Since 1 January 2016 “development” is no longer defined by donor nations•The SDGs era expands opportunities for

progressive change – seize them•But material capabilities explain change

more than ideas…global capitalism and consumerism over inclusivity/sustainability•The players are changing…game has not?

The MDGs