FROM EQUITY RESEARCH KEY INDEXdmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning Pack 20191129.pdf · 2019. 11. 29. · Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, November 29, 2019 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, November 29, 2019

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

Matahari Department Store: The Discounter, Discounted

(LPPF IJ IDR. 3,580 BUY TP IDR. 4,100)

LPPF is replacing the area formerly occupied by MAPI consignment, using it instead for Active Zone. Due to more direct purchases,

margins should improve starting in 2020 despite the steep learning curve. Note that the 3Q19 gross margin nosedived to 29.3% (-11p.p

yoy, -12.3p.p qoq) hit by inventory clear-out stemming from: 1) less than optimum purchases and 2) setting aside space for new

inventory. The GPM compression will continue up to 4Q19, in our

view. LPPF now utilizes data analytics to spot trends and single-view inventory for both off and online stores to avoid repeats. We believe

earnings will bounce back in 2020 despite -1% sales/sqm given the low base effect in 2019. We resume coverage on LPPF, maintaining

our BUY call on the stock as we believe the valuation is too-cheap-

to ignore, despite earnings declines of -30.0% and -31.7% in FY19F and FY20F.

To see the full version of this report, please click here

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

▪ Government to issue tax omnibus law in mid-December 2019 SECTOR

▪ Property: LTV/FTV Relaxation ▪ Poultry: Revision to Chicken Reference Price in Ministry of Trade

Regulation

CORPORATE ▪ Astra International: Astra Infra completed the acquisition of

Cipali ▪ Key meeting takeaways with CCSI

PREVIOUS REPORT ▪ November 2019 Inflation Outlook: Remaining Mild ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Starting a new chapter

▪ Kalbe Farma : Healthy outlook on strong government support ▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Weak recognition from property

development

▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Next year should be better ▪ United Tractors : Soft Komatsu sales volume in October 2019

▪ Adaro Energy: 9M19: Supported by Kestrel acquisitions ▪ Distribusi Voucher Nusantara: Solid positioning promises fast

growth

▪ Unilever Indonesia: Steady growth on the cards ▪ October Update: Posting a Surplus Again

KEY INDEX

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 5,953 (1.2) (3.9) 321

Thailand 1,598 (0.6) 2.2 1,422

Philippines 7,769 (0.9) 4.1 95

Malaysia 1,584 (0.2) (6.3) 398

Singapore 3,201 (0.5) 4.3 585

Regional

China 2,890 (0.5) 15.9 31,124

Hong Kong 26,894 (0.2) 4.1 9,714

Japan 23,409 (0.1) 17.0 7,960

Korea 2,121 0.1 3.9 3,664

Taiwan 11,617 (0.3) 19.4 3,453

India 41,130 0.3 14.0 390

Nasdaq 8,705 0.7 31.2 84,382

Dow Jones 28,164 0.2 20.7 8,740

CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,092 - (0.5) 2.1

BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0)

10y Gov Indo bond 7.05 (0.0) 0.0 (1.0)

HARD COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 67 (0.4) 0.9 (33.9)

Gold US$/toz 1,456 (0.8) (2.1) 13.5

Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,969 (2.6) (16.2) 31.7

Tin US$/mt.ton 16,420 0.1 (1.6) (15.9)

SOFT COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,521 (1.8) 3.4 6.6

Corn US$/mt.ton 134 (1.2) (5.3) 0.6

Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 58 (0.1) 4.6 27.9

Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 64 (0.3) 3.7 18.7

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,610 0.8 14.7 33.7

Rubber USd/kg 140 0.6 6.2 12.1

Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5

Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.2 9.9 3.5

Sugar US$/MT 343 0.5 0.7 3.2

Wheat US$/ton 143 (0.8) 0.6 (4.8)

Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.5 (1.9) 10.2

Soy Bean US$/by 882 (0.3) (4.2) (0.1)

Source: Bloomberg

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

Equity Research Company Update

Friday,29 November 2019

Matahari Department Store(LPPF IJ) BUY

Maintain The Discounter, Discounted

LPPF is replacing the area formerly occupied by MAPI consignment, using it instead for Active Zone. Due to more direct purchases, margins should improve starting in 2020 despite the steep learning curve. Note that the 3Q19 gross margin nosedived to 29.3% (-11p.p yoy, -12.3p.p qoq) hit by inventory clear-out stemming from: 1) less than optimum purchases and 2) setting aside space for new inventory. The GPM compression will continue up to 4Q19, in our view. LPPF now utilizes data analytics to spot trends and single-view inventory for both off and online stores to avoid repeats. We believe earnings will bounce back in 2020 despite -1% sales/sqm given the low base effect in 2019. We resume coverage on LPPF, maintaining our BUY call on the stock as we believe the valuation is too-cheap-to ignore, despite earnings declines of -30.0% and -31.7% in FY19F and FY20F. Flattish and -1.0% sales/sqm forecast. Looking at the sales figure in more detail reveals a slowdown as sales/sqm growth is barely positive at 0.5% in 9M19 (0.1% in 3Q19). We forecast 0.25% sales/sqm growth in 2019 and -1.0% growth in 2020. The negative sales/sqm growth figure is mainly macro driven (especially from the removal of electricity subsidies for 900VA households along with other cost increases). Our sales/sqm revisions translate into gross sales estimates of IDR17.9tn and IDR18.0tn for FY19 and FY20, or -4.2% and -8.1% from our previous forecasts. Our net income estimates of IDR1.4tn and IDR1.5tn are -30.0% and -31.7% vs earlier estimates. We believe transition will be rewarding although execution remains a risk as evident in the margins taking a hit due to purchase mishaps and the rollout of more OVS and 3610. 2020 earnings to bounce off a low base. Starting from a low base, the gross margin is expected to recover from the inventory clearing in 2H19. We forecast the overall GPM to increase from 59.6% in FY19 to 61.5% in FY20F as we expect the DP margin to creep back up from 37.4% to 41.4% as the amount of discounts normalises. The increase in the GPM would be enough to absorb higher opex, helping the EBIT to inch up by 2.0% yoy in FY20, leading to 3.0% yoy higher earnings in 2020 of IDR1.5tn. Depressed valuation and a decent dividend yield. We believe LPPF’s valuation is very depressed, near -2 STD of its 2-year earnings. Our revisions which take onboard both lower sales and higher costs result in 3% growth in 2020’s net profits, but due to the low share price, the forward dividend yield would be 7.2% for 2020 making the stock very attractive, factoring 50% pay-out in 2020. Resuming coverage with BUY on deep valuation discount. We maintain our BUY call on LPPF with a new TP of IDR4,100 (previously: IDR11,500) as we believe the company will still be able to book bottom line growth coming off a low base in 2019. The stock is hands-down cheap, trading at just 6.7x 2020F P/E, or hovering just above its 2 years -2 STD. The risks to our call include failure to properly execute its new merchandising strategy, lower-than-expected GDP growth, higher inflation, and cost of living increases in 2020.

Last price (IDR) 3,580

Target Price (IDR) 4,100

Upside/Downside +14.5%

Previous Target Price (IDR) 11,500

Stock Statistics

Sector Retail

Bloomberg Ticker LPPF IJ

No of Shrs (mn) 2,804

Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 10,038/712

Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 34.5/2.4

Major shareholders (%)

PT Multipolar Tbk 17.5

Estimated free float 82.5

EPS Consensus (IDR)

2019F 2020F 2021F

Danareksa 516.4 531.8 535.7

Consensus 530.3 529.6 534.7

Danareksa/Cons (2.6) 0.4 0.2

LPPF relative to JCI Index

Source : Bloomberg

x Andreas Kenny

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext

[email protected]

Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F

Revenue (IDRbn) 10,024 10,245 10,390 10,487 10,904 EBITDA (IDRbn) 2,702 2,638 2,219 2,294 2,333 EBITDA Growth (%) (3.1) (2.4) (15.9) 3.3 1.7 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,907 1,097 1,448 1,491 1,502 EPS (IDR) 653.8 377.3 516.4 531.8 535.7 EPS growth (%) (5.6) (42.3) 36.8 3.0 0.7 BVPS (IDR) 798.1 624.4 767.9 1,040.8 1,310.6 DPS (IDR) 491.7 459.1 332.7 259.0 265.9 PER (x) 5.5 9.5 6.9 6.7 6.7 PBV (x) 4.5 5.7 4.7 3.4 2.7 Dividend yield (%) 13.7 12.8 9.3 7.2 7.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 3.5 4.1 3.8 3.5

Source : LPPF, Danareksa Estimates

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, November 29, 2019

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

MACROECONOMY Government to issue tax omnibus law in mid-December 2019

In order to simplify tax regulation in Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance has prepared a tax deregulation scheme that will be stipulated in the omnibus law. This draft will be given to Parliament (DPR) in mid-December (before 18

December 2019). The tax deregulation will include: 1. Reduction in corporate income tax PPh 25 from 25% to 22% in 2021 and to 20% in 2023, and an additional

3% reduction will be given to companies that have been listed on the stock exchange for at least 5 years.

2. Dividend income tax exemption for companies that have less than 25% ownership in another company. 3. Indonesians who have worked overseas for more than 183 days will be subject to tax based on the countries

in which they are working, and foreigners will be subject to tax only if they work in Indonesia. 4. Reduction in the tax fine from 2% monthly for 24 months (in total may reach 48%), to be based on the

market interest rate. Yet for individuals who deliberately avoid paying tax, an additional 5-10% tax fine will

be imposed. 5. E-commerce businesses will be subject to tax, such as Amazon, Netflix, Spotify, etc.

6. All tax holidays and tax allowances will be included in one regulation, not from derived Investment Regulations.

(Investor Daily, Kompas.com)

SECTOR

Property: LTV/FTV Relaxation Bank Indonesia (BI) will further relax the LTV/FTV in its new Regulation No. 21/13/PBI/2019. In the new regulation,

second (and beyond) mortgages can have a maximum LTV/FTV of 85-95%. This is 5% higher than in the previous regulation (80-90%). For environmentally friendly property, the maximum allowed LTV/FTV is a further 5% higher.

(Kontan)

Comment: This does not change the ease in which most end users buy property as the LTV is already at a maximum (100%). Environmentally friendly landed houses with a size of 21-70 sqm can now have 100% LTV for all types of buyers.

Poultry: Revision to the Chicken Reference Price in the Ministry of Trade Regulation The Ministry of Trade is planning to revise the reference price for chicken in response to a strike of independent

commercial farmers. Currently, the reference price for chicken at the farm gate is IDR18,000-20,000/kg. There are no details regarding the new reference price. However, the independent commercial farmers are expecting the

government to cap feed and DOC prices.

Comment: The issue to limit feed and DOC prices could limit the margins of integrators if implemented strictly. However, we believe the regulations regarding reference prices are not something that can easily be enacted, given the short shelf life of the products and the high price fluctuations. (Kontan) CORPORATE

Astra International: Astra Infra completed the acquisition of Cipali

The subsidiary of Astra International (ASII), Astra Tol Nusantara (Astra Infra) with its strategic partner, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), has completed the acquisition of the remaining 55% stake in Lintas Marga

Sedaya (LMS), a toll-road operator for Cikopo – Palimanan from PLUS Expressway International. Following the completion of this acquisition, Astra Infra owns a 55% stake in LMS, while the remaining 45% is owned by CPPIB.

(Investor Daily)

MARKET NEWS

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, November 29, 2019

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Key meeting takeaways with CCSI

We met briefly with Communication Cable Systems Indonesia (CCSI IJ) previously owned by Siemens AG and US-based Corning Inc and came away with positive impressions. The company has annual capacity to fabricate up to

1,600,000 km of fiber cable for onshore and submarine cable on an annual basis. It has helped roll out fiber cable for the Palapa Ring projects and currently its biggest clients are the iForte subsidiary of TOWR, XL Axiata and Biznet.

The cable market is populated by 5 local players with CCSI having more premium selling prices with ~20% market

share leveraging on its expertise to install cables properly and its ability to avoid cable cuts and service interruptions vs. other players. The company is confident of recording further growth since the Palapa Rings projects have

completed their primary rollout related to backbone in remote areas. And secondly, the company has been in close contact with local governments and authorities to install underground subducts for the placement of cables that

exist over ground. The company is a maker of various types of subduct and when this business starts getting traction, CCSI should be a major beneficiary. (the Company)

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020

Danareksa Universe 3,629,752 230,301 247,706 228 245 5.5% 7.6% 15.8 14.7 11.9 11.1 2.4 2.2 15.7 15.5

Auto 259,095 20,646 21,942 415 441 -4.7% 6.3% 12.5 11.8 8.6 8.0 1.8 1.6 14.6 14.4

Astra International ASII BUY 6,400 8,000 259,095 20,646 21,942 510 542 503 525 -4.7% 6.3% 12.5 11.8 8.6 8.0 1.8 1.6 14.6 14.4

Banks 1,311,967 79,595 89,401 606 680 9.2% 12.3% 16.5 14.7 2.5 2.3 16.3 16.4

BCA BBCA HOLD 31,250 33,000 770,469 29,265 32,883 1,187 1,334 1,187 1,334 13.2% 12.4% 26.3 23.4 N/A N/A 4.5 3.9 18.1 17.9

BNI BBNI BUY 7,400 10,000 138,000 15,905 17,363 853 931 853 931 5.9% 9.2% 8.7 7.9 N/A N/A 1.1 1.0 13.9 13.6

Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 2,050 2,700 21,710 1,246 2,203 118 208 118 208 -55.6% 76.8% 17.4 9.9 N/A N/A 0.9 0.8 5.1 8.6

Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 6,775 9,000 316,167 28,014 31,140 600 667 600 667 12.0% 11.2% 11.3 10.2 N/A N/A 1.6 1.5 14.8 15.1

BTPN BTPN HOLD 3,160 3,500 25,751 2,582 2,870 317 352 317 352 31.2% 11.2% 10.0 9.0 N/A N/A 0.9 0.8 10.8 9.3

BTPS BTPS HOLD 3,900 3,100 30,044 1,230 1,491 160 194 160 194 27.4% 21.2% 24.4 20.2 N/A N/A 6.1 5.0 27.6 27.2

BPD Jatim BJTM BUY 655 800 9,827 1,353 1,451 90 97 90 97 7.4% 7.2% 7.3 6.8 N/A N/A 1.1 1.0 15.4 15.4

Cement 139,945 3,395 4,183 353 435 -19.6% 23.2% 41.2 33.5 15.7 12.3 2.5 2.4 6.2 7.4

Indocement INTP HOLD 19,325 21,600 71,140 1,626 1,823 442 495 442 495 41.9% 12.1% 43.8 39.0 21.3 23.1 3.0 3.0 6.9 7.7

Semen Indonesia SMGR BUY 11,600 17,500 68,806 1,769 2,360 298 398 298 398 -42.5% 33.4% 38.9 29.2 13.4 8.4 2.2 2.1 5.6 7.2

Cigarettes 317,930 23,608 19,571 200 166 10.7% -17.1% 13.5 16.2 9.1 10.7 3.7 3.7 28.5 23.0

Gudang Garam GGRM HOLD 50,375 63,900 96,926 9,214 7,795 4,789 4,051 4,789 4,051 18.2% -15.4% 10.5 12.4 7.3 8.1 2.0 1.9 19.5 15.5

HM Sampoerna HMSP SELL 1,900 2,100 221,004 14,394 11,776 124 101 124 101 6.3% -18.2% 15.4 18.8 10.7 13.0 6.1 6.6 40.3 33.7

Construction 90,814 11,547 12,946 155 173 -0.7% 12.1% 7.9 7.0 7.71 6.90 1.0 0.9 13.7 13.6

Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1,790 3,400 16,056 2,320 2,738 259 305 271 318 34.1% 18.0% 6.9 5.9 4.1 3.0 1.0 0.8 14.7 15.3

Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY 1,385 2,900 8,587 1,703 1,965 275 317 305 347 13.4% 15.4% 5.0 4.4 2.6 2.4 0.6 0.5 12.5 12.8

Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 1,100 2,300 3,917 733 847 206 238 288 332 13.8% 15.6% 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.1 0.5 0.4 10.7 10.4

Waskita Karya WSKT BUY 1,285 2,900 17,443 2,903 3,215 214 237 214 237 -26.7% 10.7% 6.0 5.4 9.9 9.4 0.9 0.8 15.2 15.0

Waskita Beton WSBP BUY 294 500 7,750 1,189 1,335 45 51 45 51 7.8% 12.3% 6.5 5.8 6.6 6.3 0.9 0.9 14.7 15.8

Wika Beton WTON BUY 430 680 3,748 507 574 58 66 58 66 4.2% 13.2% 7.4 6.5 4.8 4.4 1.1 1.0 15.6 15.8

Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 4,590 6,700 33,314 2,192 2,272 302 313 302 313 -0.5% 3.6% 15.2 14.7 15.9 14.0 1.8 1.6 12.3 11.4

Consumer 590,780 20,604 22,465 308 336 1.1% 9.0% 28.7 26.3 17.9 16.3 7.3 6.7 26.8 26.6

Indofood CBP ICBP BUY 11,325 12,900 132,071 5,157 5,590 442 479 425 461 12.7% 8.4% 25.6 23.6 20.2 18.8 5.5 4.9 22.5 21.8

Indofood INDF BUY 7,925 8,800 69,585 4,643 5,272 529 600 529 600 11.4% 13.5% 15.0 13.2 6.9 6.2 1.9 1.8 13.3 14.0

Unilever UNVR HOLD 41,800 46,000 318,934 7,465 8,009 978 1,050 978 1,050 -18.1% 7.3% 42.7 39.8 29.6 27.7 41.9 41.8 98.3 105.2

Kino Indonesia KINO BUY 3,350 5,000 4,786 514 295 360 206 360 206 242.3% -42.6% 9.3 16.2 11.5 10.4 1.8 1.7 21.4 10.8

Mayora Indah MYOR BUY 2,090 3,050 46,730 2,010 2,362 90 106 90 107 17.1% 17.5% 23.2 19.8 13.0 11.3 4.7 4.0 22.1 22.0

Sido Muncul SIDO BUY 1,245 1,250 18,675 816 938 54 63 54 63 23.0% 14.9% 22.9 19.9 20.2 17.3 6.1 5.7 27.3 29.6

Healthcare 78,968 3,039 3,327 140 158 155.6% 12.5% 26.0 23.7 16.9 15.4 4.0 3.6 16.2 15.9

Kalbe Farma KLBF BUY 1,485 1,800 69,610 2,565 2,781 55 59 55 59 4.4% 8.4% 27.1 25.0 17.3 15.9 4.3 3.9 16.6 16.3

Kimia Farma KAEF HOLD 1,685 3,120 9,358 474 546 85 98 85 98 13.9% 15.2% 19.7 17.1 15.1 13.3 2.6 2.3 14.0 14.3

Heavy Equipment 77,960 11,318 10,808 3,034 2,897 1.7% -4.5% 6.9 7.2 3.2 3.2 1.3 1.2 19.9 17.0

United Tractors UNTR BUY 20,900 28,000 77,960 11,318 10,808 3,034 2,897 2,969 2,817 1.7% -4.5% 6.9 7.2 3.2 3.2 1.3 1.2 19.9 17.0

Industrial Estate 20,337 1,462 1,744 23 28 52.9% 19.3% 13.9 11.7 9.4 7.8 1.3 1.2 9.3 10.5

Puradelta Lestari DMAS HOLD 318 320 15,327 932 1,124 19 23 19 23 88.0% 20.6% 16.4 13.6 15.4 12.0 2.0 1.9 12.6 14.5

Bekasi Fajar BEST BUY 195 350 1,881 477 359 49 37 49 37 12.9% -24.7% 3.9 5.2 3.9 4.8 0.4 0.4 10.9 7.6

Surya Semesta SSIA BUY 665 950 3,129 53 261 11 55 11 55 39.5% 392.5% 59.0 12.0 6.1 3.9 0.8 0.7 1.3 6.3

Media 35,479 3,348 3,555 115 122 11.0% 6.2% 10.6 10.0 7.1 6.4 2.1 1.9 21.5 19.9

Media Nusantara Citra MNCN BUY 1,280 1,400 18,273 2,086 2,150 146 151 139 151 36.3% 3.1% 8.8 8.5 5.9 5.4 1.6 1.4 19.5 17.5

Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 1,165 1,600 17,206 1,262 1,405 85 95 85 95 -15.0% 11.3% 13.6 12.2 9.5 8.4 3.3 2.9 25.7 25.3

Mining 137,165 15,814 16,270 178 183 -9.7% 2.9% 8.7 8.4 3.9 3.8 1.0 0.9 11.1 11.0

Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 1,245 1,700 39,823 6,132 5,696 192 178 192 178 1.9% -7.1% 6.5 7.0 2.7 2.7 0.7 0.7 11.4 10.2

Timah TINS BUY 730 1,700 5,437 899 976 121 131 121 131 84.2% 8.6% 6.0 5.6 4.1 3.7 0.8 0.7 13.1 13.1

Vale Indonesia INCO BUY 3,010 4,400 29,908 680 1,311 68 132 68 132 -22.6% 92.9% 44.0 22.8 9.2 6.8 1.1 1.1 2.5 4.7

Aneka Tambang ANTM BUY 750 1,200 18,023 807 856 34 36 34 36 -7.7% 6.1% 22.3 21.1 8.6 8.6 0.9 0.9 4.0 4.2

Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 2,470 4,400 28,456 4,832 4,977 419 432 419 432 -3.8% 3.0% 5.9 5.7 3.9 3.9 1.7 1.4 29.2 27.1

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 10,575 17,000 11,949 2,053 2,030 1,817 1,797 1,817 1,797 -45.5% -1.1% 5.8 5.9 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.9 15.2 15.7

Harum Energy HRUM BUY 1,320 1,500 3,569 411 423 152 156 152 156 -10.8% 3.0% 8.7 8.4 0.7- 1.1- 0.8 0.8 9.4 9.4

Plantation 32,598 578 1,676 66 192 -67.3% 190.0% 56.4 19.4 13.1 7.9 1.2 1.1 2.1 6.0

Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 12,275 13,000 23,626 440 1,201 229 624 229 624 -69.4% 173.0% 53.7 19.7 13.0 8.2 1.2 1.2 2.3 6.2

PP London Sumatra LSIP BUY 1,315 1,550 8,972 138 475 20 70 20 70 -58.3% 244.2% 65.0 18.9 13.8 7.0 1.1 1.0 1.7 5.6

Poultry 130,492 5,256 6,551 173 216 -25.0% 24.6% 24.8 19.9 14.8 12.7 3.9 3.4 16.3 18.2

Charoen Pokphand CPIN HOLD 6,650 6,500 109,047 3,509 4,309 214 263 215 262 -23.0% 22.8% 31.1 25.3 20.0 17.1 5.2 4.6 17.5 19.3

Japfa Comfeed JPFA BUY 1,635 2,050 19,173 1,465 1,882 125 160 135 171 -32.4% 28.5% 13.1 10.2 7.8 6.7 1.8 1.6 14.5 16.7

Malindo Feedmill MAIN BUY 1,015 1,500 2,272 282 360 126 161 127 161 -1.0% 27.7% 8.1 6.3 6.4 5.7 1.0 0.9 13.5 15.3

Property 88,829 6,837 7,154 57 60 6.2% 4.6% 13.0 12.4 8.8 8.5 1.2 1.1 9.4 9.1

Alam Sutera ASRI BUY 238 320 4,677 663 953 34 49 41 56 -31.7% 43.7% 7.1 4.9 7.9 6.4 0.5 0.4 6.8 9.0

Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1,300 1,600 25,021 2,178 2,201 113 114 113 114 68.4% 1.1% 11.5 11.4 8.4 9.4 0.9 0.8 8.0 7.5

Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 975 1,350 18,096 848 1,056 46 57 46 57 -28.5% 24.5% 21.3 17.1 11.8 9.8 1.2 1.1 5.8 6.8

Pakuw on Jati PWON BUY 560 700 26,969 2,638 2,355 55 49 54 51 3.7% -10.7% 10.2 11.5 6.8 6.9 1.8 1.6 19.2 14.9

Summarecon SMRA HOLD 975 1,250 14,066 510 589 35 41 35 41 13.7% 15.5% 27.6 23.9 11.1 10.5 1.9 1.8 7.2 7.8

Utility 45,938 3,866 4,075 159 168 -11.9% 5.4% 11.9 11.3 4.9 4.4 1.2 1.1 10.2 10.2

PGN PGAS BUY 1,895 2,700 45,938 3,866 4,075 159 168 171 179 -11.9% 5.4% 11.9 11.3 4.9 4.4 1.2 1.1 10.2 10.2

Retail 34,353 1,716 1,828 71 75 10.6% 6.5% 20.0 18.8 14.3 13.0 3.9 3.5 20.2 19.6

Ramayana RALS BUY 950 1,450 6,741 650 668 92 94 92 94 10.7% 2.8% 10.4 10.1 5.9 5.5 1.6 1.5 16.3 15.6

Ace Hardw are ACES SELL 1,610 1,550 27,612 1,066 1,160 62 68 62 68 10.5% 8.8% 25.9 23.8 20.6 18.4 5.8 5.2 23.7 23.0

Telco 489,225 23,817 26,809 126 142 57.0% 12.6% 20.5 18.2 6.3 5.7 3.3 3.0 16.5 17.2

Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM BUY 3,820 5,100 378,418 21,651 23,964 219 242 219 242 20.1% 10.7% 17.5 15.8 6.1 5.5 3.5 3.2 21.0 21.1

Indosat ISAT BUY 2,870 4,400 15,595 (1,646) (1,652) (303) (304) (294) (304) 31.5% -0.4% (9.5) (9.4) 4.1 4.3 1.6 2.0 (15.9) (19.0)

XL Axiata EXCL BUY 3,230 4,100 34,522 509 708 48 66 48 66 -115.4% 39.1% 67.8 1.0 5.3 4.6 1.8 1.8 2.7 3.7

Tow er Bersama TBIG BUY 1,080 1,070 24,470 826 1,029 36 45 36 45 21.4% 24.6% 29.6 23.8 11.7 10.9 5.2 4.8 20.5 21.0

Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 710 960 36,220 2,477 2,760 49 54 49 54 14.6% 11.4% 14.6 13.1 8.7 8.0 3.9 3.5 28.6 27.9

Transportation 2,269 242 283 34 40 7.6% 16.9% 9.4 8.0 4.0 2.9 1.0 1.0 11.0 12.1

Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal IPCC BUY 690 1,350 1,255 155 195 85 107 85 283 -8.8% 25.8% 8.1 6.4 3.5 2.3 1.1 1.0 13.6 16.0

Jasa Armada Indonesia IPCM BUY 192 325 1,015 87 88 16 17 16 458 58.2% 1.1% 11.7 11.5 5.0 4.4 0.9 0.9 8.1 7.9

EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE

Equity

Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, November 29, 2019

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

LEADERS Price as on Code 28-Nov-19 27-Nov-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Malindo Feedmill MAIN 1,015 995 2.0 (2.4) (7.7) (27.2) BUY

Unilever UNVR 41,800 41,000 2.0 (0.5) (4.1) (7.9) HOLD

Japfa Comfeed JPFA 1,635 1,610 1.6 2.2 (8.4) (24.0) BUY

Astra Agro Lestari AALI 12,275 12,125 1.2 (5.6) 10.3 3.8 BUY

Ramayana RALS 950 940 1.1 (10.4) (19.8) (33.1) BUY

Matahari Department Store LPPF 3,580 3,550 0.8 0.8 (4.8) (36.1) BUY

Puradelta Lestari DMAS 318 316 0.6 3.9 5.3 100.0 HOLD

Tower Bersama TBIG 1,080 1,075 0.5 2.9 (15.3) 50.0 BUY

Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 1,050 1,050 - - (7.5) 30.4 BUY

Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 127 127 - (3.8) (27.0) (16.4) SELL

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on Code 28-Nov-19 27-Nov-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Kimia Farma KAEF 1,685 1,900 (11.3) (15.8) (39.4) (35.2) HOLD

Semen Baturaja SMBR 404 454 (11.0) (14.0) (35.4) (76.9) SELL

Surya Citra Media SCMA 1,165 1,235 (5.7) (10.0) (8.6) (37.7) BUY

Kino Indonesia KINO 3,350 3,550 (5.6) (6.9) (19.3) 19.6 BUY

Indosat ISAT 2,870 3,030 (5.3) (5.9) (8.6) 70.3 BUY

Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,280 1,345 (4.8) (8.9) 0.4 85.5 BUY

Vale Indonesia INCO 3,010 3,160 (4.7) (9.6) (18.6) (7.7) BUY

XL Axiata EXCL 3,230 3,390 (4.7) (7.7) (8.2) 63.1 BUY

Bekasi Fajar BEST 195 204 (4.4) (8.0) (24.4) (6.3) BUY

Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,790 1,870 (4.3) (9.6) (15.6) 8.2 BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, November 29, 2019

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

PREVIOUS REPORTS

▪ November 2019 Inflation Outlook: Remaining Mild

▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Starting a new chapter ▪ Kalbe Farma : Healthy outlook on strong government support

▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Weak recognition from property development ▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Next year should be better

▪ United Tractors : Soft Komatsu sales volume in October 2019

▪ Adaro Energy: 9M19: Supported by Kestrel acquisitions ▪ Distribusi Voucher Nusantara: Solid positioning promises fast growth

▪ Unilever Indonesia: Steady growth on the cards ▪ October Update: Posting a Surplus Again

▪ Plantation: Tailwinds For the Industry

▪ Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: On a sustainable growth path ▪ Indofood Sukses Makmur: Still a solid value play

▪ Astra International: Market share is buoyant at 53% in 10M19 ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Upside emerges

▪ Tower Bersama Infrastructure: Solid operational effort but earnings fell short

▪ October Outlook: Modest Improvement Expected ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Impacted by Promotions Timing Difference

▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Supported by a buoyant Sumatra market ▪ Indo Tambangraya: Soft profit on weak coal prices

▪ Semen Indonesia: Each month is getting better ▪ Bank Mandiri : Under control

▪ Surya Citra Media: Growing Pains

▪ Telkom Indonesia : 3Q19 Earnings call takeaways ▪ United Tractors : Subdued coal outlook but undemanding valuation

▪ Strategy: In Search of Inclusive Growth ▪ Indosat Ooredoo: Unanticipated yet decent net profits

▪ Astra Agro Lestari: Downward adjustments after a lackluster 9M19

▪ Kino Indonesia: Upward revisions on solid performance ▪ Alam Sutera Realty: Weak recognition from CFLD land plot sales

▪ November 2019 Inflation Update: Edging Up ▪ PP London Sumatra : Below, but Back to Black in 3Q19

▪ Media Nusantara (MNCN): In-line with margins improvements all round ▪ XL Axiata (EXCL): Improving subscriber demographics

▪ Astra International (ASII): 3Q19: Better quarterly results

▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP): Strong results thanks to better margins ▪ Semen Indonesia (SMGR): Beating our conservative target

▪ Wijaya Karya (WIKA): Results boosted by the Jakarta Bandung HSR Project ▪ Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP): Weak results from changes in the sales mix

▪ Waskita Karya (WSKT): Weak results from a streched balance sheet

▪ Waskita Beton Precast (WSBP): Low margins in the absence of turnkey projects ▪ Kalbe Farma (KLBF): Steady Performance

▪ United Tractors (UNTR): Quarterly recovery, but lower on a yearly basis ▪ Charoen Pokphand (CPIN): Lifted by stellar margin in poultry feed

▪ Japfa Comfeed (JPFA): Weak contribution from broiler and DOC segments

▪ Malindo Feedmill (MAIN): Less impact from DOC and the broiler segments ▪ Jasa Armada Indonesia (IPCM): Weaker performance due to Exim slowdown

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, November 29, 2019

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Gedung BRI II Lt.23, Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav.44-46 Bendungan Hilir, Tanah Abang – Jakarta Pusat 10210 Indonesia Indonesia Tel (62 21) 50914100 Fax (62 21) 2520990

Equity Research Team S

Sales team

Maria Renata

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3513 Construction, Toll Road, Cement

Stefanus Darmagiri

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3530 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal

Natalia Sutanto

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco

Niko Margaronis

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3512 Telco, Tower, Utilities

Helmy Kristanto

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3500 Head of Research, Strategy

Eka Savitri

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3506 Banking

Victor Stefano

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3503 Poultry, Property, Industrial Estate

Ehrliech Suhartono

[email protected]

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3132

Laksmita Armandani

[email protected]

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3125

Vera Ongyono

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3120

Tuty Sutopo

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3121

Wisnu Budhiargo

[email protected]

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3117

Upik Yuzarni

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3137

Adeline Solaiman

[email protected]

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3503

Rendy Ben Philips

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3148

Ignatius Teguh Prayoga

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3511 Port

Andreas Kenny

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3509 Retail, Media, Plantation

Thalia Kadharusman

[email protected]

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3124

Muhammad Naufal Yunas

[email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3507 Research Associate

Equity SNAPSHOT Friday, November 29, 2019

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Economic Calendar

Date Time Event Period

21-Nov-19 Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 21-Nov

02-Dec-19 Markit Indonesia PMI Mfg Nov

02-Dec-19 CPI YoY Nov

02-Dec-19 CPI NSA MoM Nov

02-Dec-19 CPI Core YoY Nov

05-Dec-19 Consumer Confidence Index Nov

06-Dec-19 Net Foreign Assets IDR Nov

06-Dec-19 Foreign Reserves Nov

13-Dec-19 Local Auto Sales Nov

16-Dec-19 Exports YoY Nov

16-Dec-19 Imports YoY Nov

16-Dec-19 Trade Balance Nov

19-Dec-19 Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 19-Dec

Source: Bloomberg

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