From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S. Mark Thompson, Southeast Asian Research Centre (SEARC) and Department of Asian & International Studies, City University of Hong Kong Presentation to APISA 5 Regional Integration in Europe and Asia in the 21 st Century 24-25 November 2011 Overseas Chinese University Taichung, Taiwan
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From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S.
From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S. . Mark Thompson, Southeast Asian Research Centre (SEARC) and Department of Asian & International Studies, City University of Hong Kong Presentation to APISA 5 Regional Integration in Europe and Asia - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S.
Mark Thompson, Southeast Asian Research Centre (SEARC) and Department of Asian & International Studies,
City University of Hong Kong
Presentation to APISA 5Regional Integration in Europe and Asia
in the 21st Century24-25 November 2011
Overseas Chinese UniversityTaichung, Taiwan
Does anybody know what time it is?
• Stephen Skowronek’s presidential “time”– Timing of presidency– Relationship to predecessors– Recurrent cycles
• More structuralist– Upends Neutstadt’s personal model– Ideology, interests, institutional arrangements– Position within ‘regime’ key
You can’t compare!!
• The “1st” to “3rd World” – a sacrilege!– Imperial power to a post-colonial society - absurd!– Spanish King with a German Hanoverian - nein!– Apples and mangos - a no go!– (Well, at least the same national bird)
But what if we did it anyway?
• “Test” patterns of presidentialism– in varied contexts– strength and relevance of institutional variable
• Turns largest area specialist literature– into generalizable social science
• Philippine colonialism and presidential model
Presidential regimes
• Formal institutions– Also social bases (e.g. party alignments)
• Long unclear if was a “reconstructionist”– Or preemptive president
• Narrative ambiguous– “change we can believe in”– Attempt to found a new regime?– Or create bi-partistanship?
• Preemptive turn– Welfarism forgotten
“Mongrel” politics
• Obama can’t accept prevailing regime– But opposing it too much risks implosion– As massive mid-term losses suggest
• Now moving to political center– While portraying Republicans as extremist
• Tea Party an effort to revive Reaganism– But extremism makes preemption easier– Key to Obama’s re-election
Obama and Clinton
• Both ran “negative campaigns”– Against failing of Bush administrations– no clear positive alternative
• Both overestimated their mandate– Backlash against “socialist” health care– Republican victories reaffirming the “faith”
• But Republicans overplayed hand before– Also against Obama?– Or will Republican regime be revived?
Ideology
• Foundational ideology– Anti-statism in U.S.– Reformism in Philippines
• Preemptive strategies– Smart government (Clinton)– Populism (Estrada, FPJ)
• End of regime possible– Radicalization of Republicans– Corruption of reformers
Interests
• Neo-liberalism in U.S.– Big business/Wall street – Religious right– “Tea party” unites them
• Reformism in the Philippines– Makati Business Club– Catholic Church– Middle Class activists unite them
Institutional arrangements
• Changes in U.S. system in new “regime”– Conservative supermajority in Congress– Conservative dominance in Supreme Court– Increasing polarization of political parties– Media politicized
• And post-Marcos Philippines– Multi-party system– House shifts, Senate independence– Judicial check– Strong military influence
• Estrada’s fall through coup– Nixon’s institutionalized
• Philippine parties more fluid– US parties increasingly ideological– Behind “clientelism” are narratives
El demonio de las comparaciones
• Rizal sees ‘spectre of comparison’– Despite socio-economic gap– And US Philippines cultural differences– Presidentialism ‘bedeviled’ by similar logic
• Presidency structured– Limits presidents’ choices– to articulation of/antagonism towards– regime narrative– ‘Performance’ as ‘role playing’
Thanks/Salamat
And I was walking down the street one dayA pretty lady looked at me and said her diamond watch had stopped cold deadAnd I saidDoes anybody really know what time it isDoes anybody really careIf so I can't imagine whyabout timeWe've all got time enough to cryOh no, no, no, no, no, no nooooooooo