FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK: FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK: Towards an integrated international policy for air pollution Towards an integrated international policy for air pollution and climate change and climate change Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University
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FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK: Towards an integrated international policy for air pollution and climate change Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University.
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FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK:FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK:
Towards an integrated international policy for air pollution and climate changeTowards an integrated international policy for air pollution and climate change
Daniel J. JacobHarvard University
NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN U.S. COUNTIES NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN U.S. COUNTIES VIOLATING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY STANDARDS, 1999VIOLATING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY STANDARDS, 1999
EPA [2001]
124 ppbv84 ppbv
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Lead
Nitrogen dioxide
Ozone (O3)
Particles < 10 m(PM10)
Particles < 2.5 m(PM2.5)
Sulfur dioxide(SO2)
Any pollutant
ANNUAL MEAN PARTICULATE MATTER (PM) ANNUAL MEAN PARTICULATE MATTER (PM) CONCENTRATIONS AT U.S. SITES, 1995-2000CONCENTRATIONS AT U.S. SITES, 1995-2000
EPA REGIONAL HAZE RULE: FEDERAL CLASS I AREAS EPA REGIONAL HAZE RULE: FEDERAL CLASS I AREAS TO RETURN TO “NATURAL” VISIBILITY LEVELS BY 2064TO RETURN TO “NATURAL” VISIBILITY LEVELS BY 2064
Acadia National Park
clean day moderately polluted day
http://www.hazecam.net/
Places new emphasis for understanding long-range transport
GOOD vs. BAD OZONE (OGOOD vs. BAD OZONE (O33))
NOx = NO + NO2: nitrogen oxide radicalsVOC (volatile organic carbon) = light hydrocarbons and substituted organic compounds
MEAN NUMBER OF SUMMER DAYS (1980-1998) MEAN NUMBER OF SUMMER DAYS (1980-1998) EXCEEDING THE U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD EXCEEDING THE U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD
THE TROPOSPHERIC OZONE BACKGROUNDTHE TROPOSPHERIC OZONE BACKGROUNDAT NORTHERN MIDLATITUDES AT NORTHERN MIDLATITUDES
HAS INCREASED SHARPLY OVER PAST 100 YEARSHAS INCREASED SHARPLY OVER PAST 100 YEARS
Ozone trend from European mountain observations [Marenco et al., 1994]
THIS OZONE BACKGROUND IS A SIZABLE INCREMENT THIS OZONE BACKGROUND IS A SIZABLE INCREMENT TOWARDS VIOLATION OF U.S. AIR QUALITY STANDARDSTOWARDS VIOLATION OF U.S. AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
(even more so in Europe!)(even more so in Europe!)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ppbv
Europe(seasonal)
U.S.(8-h avg.)
U.S.(1-h avg.)
preindustrial presentbackground
Europe (8-h avg.)
SURFACE OZONE ENHANCEMENTS CAUSED BYSURFACE OZONE ENHANCEMENTS CAUSED BY
ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS FROM DIFFERENT CONTINENTSANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS FROM DIFFERENT CONTINENTS GEOS-CHEMmodel, July 1997
North America
Europe
Asia
Li et al. [2002]
Growth of Asian emissions over the next decades will Growth of Asian emissions over the next decades will increase role of background for ozone air quality in U.S.increase role of background for ozone air quality in U.S.
109 atoms N cm-2 s-1
AnthropogenicNOx emissions[IPCC, 2001]
2000
2020
“Optimistic” IPCC scenario: OECD, U.S. 20%, Asia 50%
TREND IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC TREND IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER PAST 1000 YEARSSURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER PAST 1000 YEARS
IPCC [2001]
EFFECTS OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND AEROSOLS EFFECTS OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND AEROSOLS ON CLIMATEON CLIMATE
Greenhouse gas layer(transparent to solar,
absorbs in IR)
Greenhouseeffect (warming)
Terrestrial emission (IR)
Aerosol layer(scatters solar,
transparent in IR)
Solar radiationreflected to space(cooling)
EARTH SURFACE
HISTORICAL TRENDS OF GREENHOUSE GASES HISTORICAL TRENDS OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND AEROSOLSAND AEROSOLS
Greenhouse gases
Aerosols
IPCC [2001]
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide Sulfur
LINK BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE FORCINGLINK BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE FORCING
GLOBAL RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE, 1750-present [IPCC, 2001]GLOBAL RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE, 1750-present [IPCC, 2001]
POLLUTANT-RELATED
OH
BLACK CARBON: A MAJOR “GREENHOUSE” AEROSOLBLACK CARBON: A MAJOR “GREENHOUSE” AEROSOLIts forcing is likely underestimated in IPCC 2001 reportIts forcing is likely underestimated in IPCC 2001 report
Chin et al. [2000]
DIESEL
DOMESTICCOAL BURNING
BIOMASSBURNING
WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?Future emission scenarios from IPCC [2001] Future emission scenarios from IPCC [2001]
A1, A2, B1, B2: four different socioeconomic story lines
NOx: ozone precursor
SO2: aerosol precursor Methane
EFFECTS OF FUTURE CHANGES EFFECTS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN GLOBAL ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONSIN GLOBAL ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS