Enrollment Projection Study Fremont Unified School District January 23, 2015 Prepared For: Fremont Unified School District 4210 Technology Drive Fremont, Ca 94538 T 510.627.2350 Prepared By: Dolinka Group, LLC 20 Pacifica, Suite 900 Irvine, CA 92618 T 949.250.8300 F 949.250.8301
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Fremont Unified School District January 23, 2015 · PDF fileenrollment is Graph 1 is based on the current school level configuration of ... Historical District Enrollment by Grade
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Enrollment Projection Study Fremont Unified School District January 23, 2015
Prepared For: Fremont Unified School District 4210 Technology Drive Fremont, Ca 94538 T 510.627.2350 Prepared By: Dolinka Group, LLC 20 Pacifica, Suite 900 Irvine, CA 92618 T 949.250.8300 F 949.250.8301
Table of Contents Section Page I. Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 II. Overview Of Historical Enrollment ------------------------------------------------------------------ 2 A. Enrollment Trends ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2 B. Transfer Trends ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 III. Attendance Boundaries and Study Area Zones ------------------------------------------------- 8 IV. Inputs and Methodology ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 A. Cohort Survival Factors ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 B. Birth Rates --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 C. Student Generation Rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 D. Residential Development -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 V. Districtwide Enrollment Projection ----------------------------------------------------------------- 19 A. Elementary School Enrollment Projection ----------------------------------------------------------- 20 B. Junior High School Enrollment Projection ----------------------------------------------------------- 35 C. High School Enrollment Projection -------------------------------------------------------------------- 38 D. Summary of Enrollement Projections by High School Attendance Area --------------------- 40
Exhibits Exhibit A: Elementary School Attendance Information Exhibit B: Enrollment Projections by Attendance Area
Fremont Unified School District Page 1 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
I. Introduction Fremont Unified School District ("School District"), serves students in grades kindergarten through 12 residing in the City of Fremont and consists of 28 elementary schools serving grades kindergarten through 6, one (1) elementary school serving grades K through 2, one (1) elementary school serving grades 3 through 6, five (5) junior high schools serving grades 7 and 8, five (5) high schools serving grades 9 through 12, and one (1) continuation high school. Since the 2000/2001 school year, the enrollment of the School District has increased by more than 2,800 students, with average annual increases of more than 200 students per year over that period. In order to determine the estimated growth or decline of the student population over the next seven (7) years ("Study Period"), as well as develop an understanding of the available capacity to house such students, the School District has retained the services of Dolinka Group, LLC to prepare an Enrollment Projection Study ("Study"). In school year 2014/2015, the enrollment of the School District is 33,935 students. Based on the information contained in the Study, the enrollment of the School District is expected to continue a pattern of increase through the end of the Study Period. Using School District enrollment information as of November 2014, the School District is expected to see continued increases in enrollment in similar numbers to recent years for the first several years of the Study Period, with slower increases in the latter part of the Study Period. As is the case with any long-term projection of student enrollment, the School District should keep in mind the Study is a living document based on information gathered during the last quarter of 2014 and first quarter of 2015. Due to fluctuations in population, changes in residential development, unforeseen economic conditions, and alterations in School District enrollment policy, adjustments to this Study will be necessary as fluctuations in population, economy, and housing market take place over the Study Period. While the Study’s mission is to provide future student enrollment projections, it is also valuable to analyze historical and current trends. The following is an outline of the Study’s four (4) main sections: » Section II reviews the historical enrollment trends of the School District. » Section III identifies the current attendance boundaries and study area zones ("SAZs") of the
School District » Section IV provides the assumptions and methodologies used to project the number of
students in the School District over the Study Period. This section includes a discussion of cohort survival factors, birth rates, and the method used to project future student enrollment.
» Section V projects the student enrollment for the School District over the Study Period for
each school by attendance area.
Fremont Unified School District Page 2 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
II. Overview of Historical Enrollment To analyze the total districtwide enrollment, Dolinka Group utilized data from the California Department of Education ("CDE") for school year 2000/2001 through school year 2013/2014 and the enrollment database of the School District for school year 2014/2015. In order to analyze the enrollment trends by grade level and region, Dolinka Group utilized a database of enrolled student and addresses from the School District for school year 2011/2012 through 2014/2015. By using this information, Dolinka Group was able to locate and plot the residence of each student (for more information on this process see Section III.A.). This allows Dolinka Group to assess the concentration of where students reside within their respective attendance boundaries regardless of what school a student attends.
A. Enrollment Trends
The School District has experienced steady enrollment increases since school year 2000/2001. The historical enrollment of the School District is shown below in Graph 1 and Table 1, while the annual change of student enrollment is shown in Table 2. The enrollment is Graph 1 is based on the current school level configuration of the School District where elementary schools serve students in grades kindergarten through 6 (including transitional kindergarten), junior high schools serve students in grades 7 and 8, and high schools serve students in grades 9 through 12.
Table 1 Annual Change in Student Enrollment
School Year Districtwide Enrollment[1]
2000/2001 30,922
2001/2002 30527
2002/2003 31289
2003/2004 31659
2004/2005 31,849
2005/2006 31,911
2006/2007 31,863
2007/2008 31,700
2008/2009 31,890
2009/2010 32,050
2010/2011 32,368
2011/2012 32,585
2012/2013 33,153
2013/2014 33,661
2014/2015 33,935 [1] Based on information provided by CDE and the School District.
Fremont Unified School District Page 3 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Graph 1 Historical District Enrollment by Grade Level
Table 2 Annual Rate of Change in Student Enrollment
School YearHigh School Enrollment Middle School Enrollment Elementary Enrollment
Fremont Unified School District Page 4 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
As shown in Graph 1, the elementary school enrollment of the School District reached its lowest point in the last 14 years in school year 2001/2002 when there were 30,527 students. Since that time, elementary school enrollment increased by 11.94 percent, junior high school enrollment increased by 5.04 percent, and high school enrollment increased by 8.03 percent. A higher number of students per grade at the elementary school level, as exists currently at the School District, will result in increasing enrollment at the middle and high school levels in future years.
B. Transfer Trends
In accordance with Education Code, each year the School District admits a number of incoming students that reside outside of the School District boundaries. Incoming students that attend the School District but reside in another school district are referred to as interdistrict transfers ("IDTs") or as permit students. Typically IDTs are approved based on an agreement with the school district of origin or based on parental employment within the School District. Overall, the number of IDTs has remained relatively steady over the last four years, though as a percentage of total enrollment, the percentage of IDTs has declined as overall enrollment in the School District has grown. Table 3 shows the number of IDTs in each year, the total enrollment of the School District and the percentage of incoming IDTs from 2010/2011 through 2014/2015.
Table 3
Incoming Inter-District Transfers
Item 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
IDTs 188 161 197 174
Total Enrollment 32,829 33,406 33,887 33,935
Percentage 0.57% 0.48% 0.58% 0.51%
Individual schools within the School District receive varying numbers of incoming IDTs. Table 4 shows the number of incoming IDTs by grade and the schools that they attend.
Fremont Unified School District Page 5 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 4 Incoming IDTs by School
School K 01 02 03 04 05 06 Total
Ardenwood ES 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Azevada ES 1 7 6 3 4 0 0 21
Blacow ES 0 1 0 2 2 1 1 7
Brier ES 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3
Brookvale ES 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Cabrillo ES 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 5
Chadbourne ES 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 7
Forest Park ES 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Gomes ES 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Green ES 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3
Grimmer ES 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 3
Hirsch ES 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 3
Maloney ES 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2
Mattos ES 1 0 1 2 2 3 1 10
Millard ES 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Niles ES 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Oliveira ES 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3
Patterson ES 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
Vallejo Mill ES 2 1 2 2 5 2 0 14
Total Elementary IDTs 7 15 16 15 18 9 9 89
07 08 Total
Centerville JHS 5 1 6
Thornton JHS 5 1 6
Walters JHS 5 4 9
Total Junior High School IDTs 15 6 21
09 10 11 12 Total
American HS 3 2 2 7 14
Irvington HS 0 0 2 2 4
Kennedy HS 5 5 7 9 26
Mission San Jose HS 1 0 0 1 2
Washington HS 3 9 3 3 18
Total High School IDTs 12 16 14 22 64
In addition to students transferring into the School District who reside outside its boundaries, there are also students who attend a school outside their established attendance boundaries. These transfers are done through the intra-district transfer request process of the School District. Table 5 shows the intra-district transfer attendance percentage for each elementary school, while Exhibit A provides more information on the elementary school attendance.
Fremont Unified School District Page 6 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 5 Elementary School Attendance Information
Elementary School
Enrollment Within
Attendance Boundary
Intra-district Transfer and
Overload Attendance[1]
Inter-District Transfer
Attendance Total School Enrollment
Intra-District Transfer
Percentage Ardenwood ES 916 48 1 965 5.08% Brookvale ES 470 184 1 655 28.24% Forest Park ES 1,019 9 1 1,029 0.97% Oliveira ES 521 178 3 702 25.78% Patterson ES 523 91 2 616 15.10% Warwick ES 772 89 0 861 10.34% Subtotal 4,221 599 8 4,828 12.57% Green ES 414 60 3 477 13.21% Grimmer ES[2] 220 150 3 373 41.02% Hirsch ES 475 62 3 540 12.04% Leitch ES 1,036 40 0 1,076 3.72% Warm Springs ES 835 26 0 861 3.02% Weibel ES 666 196 0 862 22.74% Subtotal 3,646 534 9 4,189 12.96% Azevada ES[3] 292 269 21 582 49.83% Blacow ES[2] 249 187 7 443 43.79% Brier ES 677 83 3 763 11.27% Durham ES 443 69 0 512 13.48% Mattos ES[4] 223 384 10 617 63.86% Millard ES 492 105 1 598 17.73% Subtotal 2,376 1,097 42 3,515 32.40% Chadbourne ES 721 114 7 842 14.37% Gomes ES 687 92 1 780 11.92% Mission San Jose ES 581 42 0 623 6.74% Mission Valley ES 583 60 0 643 9.33% Subtotal 2,572 308 8 2,888 10.94% Cabrillo ES 310 70 5 385 19.48% Glenmoor ES 571 88 0 659 13.35% Maloney ES 400 196 2 598 33.11% Niles ES 570 31 1 602 5.32% Parkmont ES 856 64 0 920 6.96% Vallejo Mill ES[2] 400 138 14 552 27.54%
Subtotal 3,107 587 22 3,716 16.39%
Total 15,922 3,125 89 19,136 16.80% [1] Includes students with active intra-district applications as well as students not able to attend their homes school due to facility overload and School District overload policy. [2] Spanish Immersion Program offered at these school sites. [3] Mandarin Immersion Program offered at this school site. [4] Science Magnet Program offered at this school site.
Fremont Unified School District Page 7 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 6 shows the intra-district transfer information for the junior high school level while Table 7 shows the intra-district transfer information for the high school level. In both Tables 6 and 7, the attendance boundaries are shown in the first column and the schools of attendance for students within each boundary are shown across the rows. Reading the numbers down the columns shows the enrollment at a particular school and the boundaries where those students reside.
Fremont Unified School District Page 8 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
III. Attendance Boundaries and Study Area Zones Attendance boundaries are defined as geographic areas within a school district that serve as the students assigned to a particular school. Currently, there are 28 attendance boundaries at the elementary school level (including areas currently classified as "Unassigned"), five (5) at the junior high school level, and five (5) at the high school level. Attendance boundaries allow the School District to effectively control enrollment at each facility and will be shifted as (i) new schools are constructed within the School District and/or (ii) student population distribution necessitates it. The existing elementary school, junior high school, and high school attendance boundaries are shown on Maps 1, 2, and 3 respectively. In order to more accurately project the number of students generated from existing and future residential units, the School District has been separated into Study Area Zones ("SAZs"). A SAZ constitutes a region of residential units with similar characteristics such as land use (e.g., single family detached ("SFD") units or multi-family attached ("MFA") units), elementary school attendance boundary area, access to major roads, and other characteristics. In addition to identifying the exact location of future residential units, SAZs promote a more accurate analysis of demographic trends and projections of student enrollment. Map 4 illustrates the boundaries of the School District, all 295 SAZs. Each SAZ belongs to exactly one (1) elementary school, junior high school, and high school attendance boundary.
§̈¦880
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BrierES
GomesES
GreenES
NilesES
BlacowES
DurhamES
HirschES
LeitchES
MattosES
WeibelES
AzevadaES Grimmer
ES
MaloneyES
MillardES
WarwickES
CabrilloES
GlenmoorES
OliveiraES
ParkmontES
ArdenwoodES
BrookvaleES
PattersonES
ChadbourneES
Forest ParkES
Vallejo MillES
Warm SpringsES
MissionValley
ESMission
San JoseES
FREMONT BL
MISS
ION
BL
P ASEO PA DRE PW
BLACOW RD
MOWRY AV STEVENSON BL
NILES CA NYON RD
THORNTON AV
NILES BL
KATO RDCEDAR BL
CENTR
AL AV
NEWARK BL
WARM SPRINGS BL
GRIMMER BL
WALNU
T AV
OSGOOD RD
S GRIMMER BL
PERALTA BL
AUTO MALL PW
CUSHING PW
CHERRY STWASHINGTON BL
DECOTO
RD
DYER ST
FO
OTHILL R D
E VALLECITOS R D
DU RHAM RD
DEEP CREEK RDARDENWOO
D BL
ALVARADO BL
MAPLE ST
SCOTT CREEK RD
W WARREN AV
IR VING T ON AV
WHIPPLE RD
DIXON LANDING RD
DYER
ST
Fremont Unified School DistrictMap 1 - Elementary School Attendance Boundaries School Year 2014/2015
µ0 1 2 3 40.5Miles
January 2015
Fremont Unified School DistrictNeighboring School Districts
n Elementary SchoolsAttendance Boundaries
Ardenwood ESAzevada ESBlacow ESBrier ESBrookvale ESCabrilo ESChadbourne ESDurham ESForest Park ESGlenmoor ESGomes ESGreen ESGrimmer ESHirsch ESLeitch/Warm SpringsMaloney ESMattos ESMillard ESMission San Jose ESMission Valley ESNiles ESOliveira ESParkmont ESPatterson ESUnassignedVallejo Mill ESWarwick ESWeibel ES
N e w a r kN e w a r kU n i f i e d S DU n i f i e d S D
SanFrancisco
Bay
§̈¦880
§̈¦680
¬«84
WaltersJHS
HopkinsJHS
HornerJHS
ThorntonJHS
CentervilleJHS
FREMONT BL
MISSION BL
PASEO PADRE PW
BLACOW RD
MOWRY AV
STEV
ENSO
N BL
NILES CA NYON RD
THORNTON AV
NILES BL
KATO RDCEDAR BL
CENTR
AL AV
NEWARK BL
WARM SPRINGS BL
GRIMMER BL
WALNU
T AV
OSGOOD RD
S GRIMMER BL
PERALTA BL
AUTO MALL PW
CUSHING PW
CHERRY ST
WASHINGTON BL
DECOTO
RD
DYER ST
DRISCOLL RD
FO
OTHILL R D
E VALLECITOS R D
DU RHAM RD
DEEP CREEK RD
OLIVE AV
ARDENWO
OD BL
E W ARREN AV
ALVARADO BL
MAPLE ST
SCOTT CREEK RD
W WARREN AV
IR VING T ON AV
WARREN AV
WHIPPLE RD
DIXON LANDING RD
PERA
LTA BL
DYER
ST
Fremont Unified School DistrictMap 2 - Junior High School Attendance Boundaries School Year 2014/2015
µ0 1 2 3 40.5Miles
January 2015
Fremont Unified School DistrictNeighboring School Districts
N e w a r kN e w a r kU n i f i e d S DU n i f i e d S D
SanFrancisco
Bay
§̈¦880
§̈¦680
¬«84
KennedyHS
MissionSan Jose
HS
IrvingtonHS
AmericanHS
WashingtonHS
FREMONT BL
MISSION BL
PASEO PADRE PW
BLACOW RD
MOWRY AV
STEV
ENSO
N BL
NILES CA NYON RD
THORNTON AV
NILES BL
KATO RDCEDAR BL
CENTR
AL AV
NEWARK BL
WARM SPRINGS BL
GRIMMER BL
WALNU
T AV
OSGOOD RD
S G RIMMER BL
PERALTA BL
AUTO MALL PW
CUSHING PW
CHERRY ST
WASHINGTON BL
DECOTO
RD
DYER ST
DRISCOLL RD
E VALLECITOS R DFO
OTHILL R D
DU RHAM RD
DEEP CREEK RD
OLIVE AV
ARDENWO OD BL
E W ARREN AV
ALVARADO BL
MAPLE ST
SCOTT CREEK RD
W WARREN AV
IR VINGT ON AV
WARREN AV
WHIPPLE RD
DIXON LANDING RD
ARGONAUT WY
PERA
LTA BL
DYER
ST
Fremont Unified School DistrictMap 3 - High School Attendance Boundaries School Year 2014/2015
µ0 1 2 3 40.5Miles
January 2015
Fremont Unified School DistrictNeighboring School Districts
n High SchoolsAttendance Boundaries
American HSIrvington HSKennedy HSMission San Jose HSWashington HS
N e w a r kN e w a r kU n i f i e d S DU n i f i e d S D
SanFrancisco
Bay
§̈¦880
§̈¦680
¬«84
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FREMO NT BL
MISSION BL
PASEO PADRE P W
BLAC OW RD
NILES CA NYON RD
THORNTON AV
NILES BL
KATO RDCEDAR BL
CENTR
AL AV
NEWARK BL
WARM SPRINGS BLWALNUT AV
AUTO MALL PW
CUSHING PW
CHERRY ST
W ASHINGTON BL
DYER ST
E VALLECITOS R DFO
OTHILL R D
DUR HAM RD
W WARREN AV
WHIPPLE RD
DIXON LANDING RD
DYER
ST
Fremont Unified School DistrictMap 4 - Study Area Zones School Year 2014/2015
µ0 1 2 3 40.5Miles
January 2015
Study Area ZonesNeighboring School Districts
N e w a r kN e w a r kU n i f i e d S DU n i f i e d S D
SanFrancisco
Bay
Fremont Unified School District Page 13 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
IV. Inputs and Methodology This section identifies the components used by Dolinka Group to project student enrollment by grade level and location for the School District. Dolinka Group identified and analyzed various connections or linkages between (i) the existing housing stock and (ii) future student enrollment. The primary linkages identified by Dolinka Group include:
» Cohort Survival Factors (i.e., the percentage of students that progress from one grade level to the next),
» Birth Rates
» Student Generation Rates
» Residential Development
These enrollment projections are based on a student's school of attendance regardless of where that student may actually reside. The enrollment was calculated in this fashion due to the high rate of student movement, both from intra-district transfers as well as facility overload, currently experienced by the School District. A. Cohort Survival Factors
Cohort survival factors represent the number of students that progress from one grade to the next (e.g., the number of first graders who become second graders, etc.). In order to compute cohort survival factors, Dolinka Group analyzed the enrollment of the School District for school years 2011/2012 through 2014/2015. A cohort survival factor greater than 1.00 indicates that student enrollment is increasing from one grade to the next. Conversely, a cohort survival factor less than 1.00 indicates that student enrollment is decreasing from one grade to the next. Dolinka Group calculated the grade-to-grade progression of students over past four (4) school years within each elementary school, junior high school, and high school attendance area, which are summarized in Table 7. Please note that for students enrolled in transitional kindergarten, it was assumed that 100 percent of these students will transition to kindergarten in the following school year, and as such, cohort survival factors were not applied to these students.
Fremont Unified School District Page 14 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 7 Cohort Survival Factors
School K to 1st 1st to 2nd
2nd to 3rd 3rd to 4th 4th to 5th 5th to 6th
Ardenwood ES 107.2% 97.7% 97.3% 102.7% 93.7% 94.2%
Azevada ES 97.1% 86.2% 100.1% 97.5% 102.0% 98.7%
Blacow ES 105.9% 91.9% 90.8% 95.8% 94.8% 100.1%
Brier ES 97.0% 96.9% 95.3% 96.8% 94.9% 96.4%
Brookvale ES 108.8% 103.4% 106.8% 105.3% 105.8% 103.6%
Cabrillo ES 96.9% 98.1% 104.6% 97.1% 101.2% 104.6%
Chadbourne ES 111.4% 106.8% 107.9% 103.0% 102.5% 105.2%
Durham ES 110.6% 94.4% 101.5% 102.0% 108.7% 99.9%
Forest Park ES 102.3% 98.8% 100.9% 98.8% 99.3% 90.2%
Glenmoor ES 108.0% 97.7% 100.9% 99.0% 100.3% 104.0%
Gomes ES 113.3% 110.0% 103.4% 104.3% 106.9% 99.6%
Green ES 119.4% 101.5% 100.8% 104.6% 103.3% 107.9%
Grimmer ES 102.9% 103.5% 101.5% 94.7% 106.4% 94.4%
Hirsch ES 115.0% 106.4% 107.1% 102.6% 110.0% 115.2%
Leitch ES 109.4% 102.9% 98.3% N/A N/A N/A
Maloney ES 108.8% 93.4% 87.8% 98.2% 96.1% 96.6%
Mattos ES 117.9% 109.9% 103.9% 106.7% 99.0% 100.8%
Millard ES 104.2% 102.9% 100.7% 98.4% 101.2% 93.1%
Mission San Jose ES 98.3% 104.4% 104.9% 104.8% 103.5% 103.7%
Mission Valley ES 115.3% 110.9% 103.6% 103.8% 103.3% 107.1%
Niles ES 109.1% 101.2% 102.7% 94.4% 98.5% 95.5%
Oliveira ES 105.7% 110.0% 100.4% 100.3% 99.6% 106.4%
Parkmont ES 101.1% 98.4% 98.1% 99.3% 98.0% 97.9%
Patterson ES 108.6% 95.8% 105.7% 97.4% 107.7% 98.9%
Vallejo Mill ES 114.1% 97.7% 102.0% 104.9% 98.2% 101.7%
Warm Springs ES N/A N/A 98.3% 102.6% 98.4% 100.6%
Warwick ES 100.0% 103.9% 96.2% 102.4% 95.1% 104.1%
Weibel ES 111.5% 104.9% 102.4% 101.8% 99.2% 100.8%
Kennedy HS 101.7% 100.1% 95.5% 98.4% Mission San Jose HS 102.2% 99.2% 97.8% 99.0%
Washington HS 104.5% 98.8% 94.4% 98.8%
Fremont Unified School District Page 15 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
B. Birth Rates
In order to more accurately project the number of students enrolled in the School District for any given year, information on the total births within ZIP codes served by the School District from 2000 through 2012 was obtained from the California Department of Public Health ("CDPH").
Table 8
Actual Birth Rates as reported by CDPH
Birth Year Births[1] Kindergarten
Year Kindergarten Enrollment
Kindergarten Percent of
Births
2001 3,139 2006 2,269 66.11%
2002 3,427 2007 2,419 77.06%
2003 3,241 2008 2,455 71.64%
2004 3,172 2009 2,617 80.75%
2005 3,166 2010 2,601 82.00%
2006 2,991 2011 2,479 78.30%
2007 3,127 2012 2,695 90.10%
2008 3,048 2013 2,798 89.48%
2009 3,052 2014 2,982 97.83%
Average 82.20%
[1] Information on actual births in ZIP codes 94536, 94538, 94539, and 94555 obtained from CPDH.
In order to project kindergarten enrollment for the Study Period, information on actual births in the ZIP codes served by the School District through calendar 2012 from CDPH were reviewed and data on actual/projected births for the County were obtained from the California Department of Finance ("DOF") for calendar years 2013 through 2018. A summary of the actual and projected birth rates for the School District is shown in Table 9.
Fremont Unified School District Page 16 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 9 Actual and Projected Birth Rates as reported by DOF
Birth Year School District
Births[1] County Births[2]
Kindergarten
Year Birth Rate[3]
2009 3,052 N/A 2014 N/A
2010 2,855 N/A 2015 93.55%
2011 2,869 N/A 2016 100.49%
2012 2,936 19,550 2017 102.34%
2013 N/A 19,126 2018 97.83%
2014 N/A 19,229 2019 100.54%
2015 N/A 19,304 2020 100.39%
2016 N/A 19,372 2021 100.35%
2017 N/A 19,435 2022 100.33%
2018 N/A 19,508 2023 100.38%
2019 N/A 19,525 2024 100.09% [1] Birth information from the CDPH for ZIP codes 94536, 94538, 94539, and 94555. [2] Actual and projected births documented for the County of Alameda by DOF. [3] Birth rates are based on School District births for 2008 through 2012 and based on County Births for 2013 through 2018.
C. Student Generation Rates
In order to estimate future student enrollment, Dolinka Group applied SGRs calculated for the School District to the future units. The Study utilizes student generation rates calculated by Dolinka Group for the School District's School Facilities Needs Analysis dated April 17, 2014. Table 10 shows the SGRs by unit type and school level.
Table 10
Student Generation Rates
School Level SFD Units MFA Units
Transitional Kindergarten 0.0068 0.0056
Elementary School (Grades K-6) 0.4237 0.1808
Junior High School (Grades 7-8) 0.0940 0.0327
High School (Grades 9-12) 0.1553 0.0516
Total 0.6798 0.2707
Fremont Unified School District Page 17 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
D. Residential Development
Based on information provided by the City and County, the School District currently has 10,082 residential units planned within its boundaries, excluding age-restricted residential units. Tables 11 shows the projected absorption of residential units by year, while Map 5 details the residential projects and the number of units planned with respect to each project within the School District. (Please note that residential development is expected to continue beyond the period of this Study.)
Table 11
Residential Absorption
Year
Single Family Detached
Units
Multifamily Attached
Units
Total Residential
Units
2015 126 249 375
2016 264 577 841
2017 200 953 1,153
2018 188 1,254 1,442
2019 156 1,250 1,406
2020 100 1,250 1,350
2021 0 850 850
2022 0 850 850
Total 1,034 7,233 8,267
MISSION BL
FREMONT BL
PASE O PADRE PW
BLACOW RD
MOWRY AV
STEV
ENSO
N BL
THORNTO
N AV
NILES BL
CEDAR BL
CENTR
AL AV
NEWARK BL
GRIMMER BL
WALNU
T AV
OSGOOD RD
S GRIMMER BL
PERALTA BL
AUTO MALL PW
CUSHING PW
CHERRY ST
WASHINGTON BL
BOYCE RD
DECOTORD
DYER ST
DRISCOLL RD
WARM SPRINGS BL
DURHAM RD
DEEP CREEKRD
OLIVE AV
ARDENWOO
D BL
NILE
S C ANYON R D
E WARREN AV
ALVARADO BL
PALOMA RD
MAPLE ST
W WARREN AV
IR V INGTON AV
WARREN AV
DUSTERBERRY WY
ARGONAUT WY
ALVARADO NILES RD
CHERRY ST
57
1
18
25
48
50
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28
37
56
25
9
49
2
46
51
19
24
55
49
10
23
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30
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58
7 32
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47 53
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38
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27
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13
16
26
41
1520
21
8
14
35
42
36
17
54
59
Fremont Unified School DistrictFuture Residential Development
µ
0 0.75 1.5 2.25 30.375Miles
December 2014
Fremont Unified School DistrictNeighboring School DistrictsResidential Development
Map ID Project Unit Type Units1 Patterson Ranch SFD 5002 Terra Bella MF 633 Beachwood SFA 184 Fremont Decoto Townhomes MIX 385 Decoto Villas MF 166 Decoto Crossing SFD 107 Alder Avenue Subdivision SFD 168 Chin Subdivision SFD 29 Artist Walk MF 18510 Granite Ridge Mix 12611 Peralta Crossing MF 4612 Talamore - Warmington Group SFD 1613 Habitat @ Central MF 3014 Pepper Tree Development MF 1415 Aurora Spring Grove MF 1516 Central Avenue Townhomes MF 2717 Oracle Common MF 818 Downtown Community Plan Mix 1,97119 State Street Mixed Use Project MF 14520 Capitol Villas MF 4421 Mission Townhomes MF 1622 Niles Lux Homes - Grimmer SFD 323 Deer Road Homes SFD 1024 Niles Gateway Mixed-Use MF 9825 US Gypsum Site MIX 45126 Mission Villas Duets MF 1627 Shannon Townhomes MF 2528 Walnut Residences MF 87629 Mission Boulevard Townhomes MF 3330 Mission Stevenson MF 8031 Stevenson Place MF 6632 Stevenson PL City-Park GPA MF 6934 Warmington Connolly Center PRP MF 9235 High Town Square MF 1036 Union Street Townhomes MF 1237 Central Park Terraces SFD 14538 Mission Place Condos MF 2439 Casa Bella - TR 8119 MIX 1740 Laguna Commons MF 6441 Villas at Florio MF 2242 Montavo Townhomes MIX 1043 Lunare Townhomes MF 3844 Osgood Residences MF 10045 Washington Boulevard SFD 1446 Tract 8111 - Hirsch Property SFD 3247 Mission Olive homes SFD 648 Hobbs Residential PRP SFD 4349 Bringurst Property PD SFD 2349 Dias Planned District SFD 2250 Mission Creek NSFD Tract 8106 SFD 3951 Palm Avenue Planned District SFD 3152 Palmdale Estates SFD 7953 Mill Creek Chateau SFD 354 SVD - Bryant Street MIX 355 Traviso SFD 1656 Sabercat Neighborhood Center MF 15857 Warm Springs Community Plan MF 3,99758 Hackamore Planned District SFD 3459 Maple Commons SFD 15
10,082Total
Fremont Unified School District Page 19 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
IV. Districtwide Enrollment Projection All of the items analyzed in prior sections were employed to project the number of students within the School District in the Study Period.
Cohort survival factors were incorporated to determine the percentage of students in any given year who matriculate to enter the next grade in the following year. Secondly, birth rates and new residential development were incorporated into the projection to project new students entering the School District. Utilizing these inputs and methods, student enrollment of the School District is projected to continue to increase in school year 2021/2022. As shown below in Graph 2, the student enrollment of the School District is projected to grow by 12.56 percent to 38,198 students by the end of the Study Period.
Graph 2 Student Enrollment Projections by School Year
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
19
,14
8
19
,27
0
19
,34
3
19
,52
5
19
,71
4
19
,92
6
20
,13
1
20
,18
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5
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9
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4
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5,83
6
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7
9,9
12
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10
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8
10
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3
11
,46
3
11
,83
2
12
,08
4
Pro
ject
ed E
nro
llmen
t
School Year
Fremont Unified School District Page 20 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
A. Elementary School Enrollment Projection
At the elementary school level, enrollment is projected to increase from 19,148 students in School Year 2014/2015 to 20,187 students in school year 2021/2022, equating to a 5.43 percent growth. Of the 28 elementary schools, 16 schools are projected to experience student enrollment growth by the end of the Study Period. Table 12 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade, while Exhibit B provides more detailed information on the enrollment projections by school of attendance.
Table 12 Projected Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Ardenwood Elementary School ("Ardenwood") is projected to increase from 965 students in school year 2014/2015 to 966 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected 2015/2016 FUSD Capacity Summary ("Capacity Summary") prepared by the School District, Ardenwood will have a program capacity of 1,012 seats. Table 13 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 13
Projected Ardenwood Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 21 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
2. Azevada Elementary School
The enrollment of Azevada Elementary School ("Azevada") is projected to increase from 580 students in school year 2014/2015 to 631 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Azevada has a current program capacity of 578 seats. Table 14 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 14
Projected Azevada Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Blacow Elementary School ("Blacow") is projected to decrease from 443 students in school year 2014/2015 to 416 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Blacow has a current program capacity of 654 seats. Table 15 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 15
Projected Blacow Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 22 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
4. Brier Elementary School
The enrollment of Brier Elementary School ("Brier") is projected to decrease from 763 students in school year 2014/2015 to 686 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Brier has a current program capacity of 812 seats. Table 16 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 16
Projected Brier Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Brookvale Elementary School ("Brookvale") is projected to increase from 655 students in school year 2014/2015 to 797 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Brookvale has a current program capacity of 654 seats. Table 17 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 17
Projected Brookvale Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 23 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
6. Cabrillo Elementary School
The enrollment of Cabrillo Elementary School ("Cabrillo") is projected to decrease from 384 students in school year 2014/2015 to 327 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Cabrillo has a current program capacity of 488 seats. Table 18 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 18
Projected Cabrillo Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Chadbourne Elementary School ("Chadbourne") is projected to increase from 844 students in school year 2014/2015 to 923 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Chadbourne has a current program capacity of 862 seats. Table 19 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 19
Projected Chadbourne Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 24 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
8. Durham Elementary School
The enrollment of Durham Elementary School ("Durham") is projected to increase from 512 students in school year 2014/2015 to 754 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Durham has a current program capacity of 536 seats. Table 20 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 20
Projected Durham Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Forest Park Elementary School ("Forest Park") is projected to increase from 1,029 students in school year 2014/2015 to 1,050 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Forest Park has a current program capacity of 1,022 seats. Table 21 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 21
Projected Forest Park Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 25 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
10. Glenmoor Elementary School
The enrollment of Glenmoor Elementary School ("Glenmoor") is projected to decrease from 659 students in school year 2014/2015 to 576 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Glenmoor has a current program capacity of 714 seats. Table 22 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 22
Projected Glenmoor Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Gomes Elementary School ("Gomes") is projected to decrease from 780 students in school year 2014/2015 to 648 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Gomes has a current program capacity of 934 seats. Table 23 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 23
Projected Gomes Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 26 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
12. Green Elementary School
The enrollment of Green Elementary School ("Green") is projected to increase from 447 students in school year 2014/2015 to 511 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Green has a current program capacity of 500 seats. Table 24 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 24
Projected Green Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Grimmer Elementary School ("Grimmer") is projected to increase from 373 students in school year 2014/2015 to 374 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Grimmer has a current program capacity of 536 seats. Table 25 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 25
Projected Grimmer Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 27 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
14. Hirsch Elementary School
The enrollment of Hirsch Elementary School ("Hirsch") is projected to increase from 540 students in school year 2014/2015 to 578 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Hirsch has a current program capacity of 556 seats. Table 26 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 26
Projected Hirsch Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Leitch Elementary School ("Leitch") is projected to decrease from 1,076 students in school year 2014/2015 to 817 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Leitch has a current program capacity of 804 seats. Table 27 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade. Please note that the projected decrease at Leitch is primarily due the completion of the modernization of Warm Springs Elementary School ("Warm Springs") by school year 2016/2017 with third grade students returning to Warm Springs from Leitch.
Table 27
Projected Leitch Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 28 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
16. Maloney Elementary School
The enrollment of Maloney Elementary School ("Maloney") is projected to increase from 598 students in school year 2014/2015 to 618 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Maloney has a current program capacity of 612 seats. Table 28 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 28
Projected Maloney Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Mattos Elementary School ("Mattos") is projected to increase from 618 students in school year 2014/2015 to 631 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Mattos has a current program capacity of 570 seats. Table 29 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 29
Projected Mattos Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 29 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
18. Millard Elementary School
The enrollment of Millard Elementary School ("Millard") is projected to decrease from 599 students in school year 2014/2015 to 565 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Millard has a current program capacity of 708 seats. Table 30 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 30
Projected Millard Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Mission San Jose Elementary School ("MSJES") is projected to decrease from 622 students in school year 2014/2015 to 496 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, MSJES has a current program capacity of 702 seats. Table 31 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Fremont Unified School District Page 30 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
20. Mission Valley Elementary School
The enrollment of Mission Valley Elementary School ("Mission Valley") is projected to decrease from 643 students in school year 2014/2015 to 574 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Mission Valley has a current program capacity of 852 seats. Table 32 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 32
Projected Mission Valley Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Niles Elementary School ("Niles") is projected to increase from 601 students in school year 2014/2015 to 714 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Niles has a current program capacity of 626 seats. Table 33 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 33
Projected Niles Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 31 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
22. Oliveira Elementary School
The enrollment of Oliveira Elementary School ("Oliveira") is projected to increase from 702 students in school year 2014/2015 to 832 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Oliveira has a current program capacity of 648 seats. Table 34 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 34
Projected Oliveira Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Parkmont Elementary School ("Parkmont") is projected to decrease from 920 students in school year 2014/2015 to 901 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Parkmont has a current program capacity of 906 seats. Table 35 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 35
Projected Parkmont Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 32 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
24. Patterson Elementary School
The enrollment of Patterson Elementary School ("Patterson") is projected to decrease from 617 students in school year 2014/2015 to 592 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Patterson has a current program capacity of 664 seats. Table 36 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 36
Projected Patterson Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Vallejo Mill Elementary School ("Vallejo Mill") is projected to increase from 552 students in school year 2014/2015 to 655 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Vallejo Mill has a current program capacity of 672 seats. Table 37 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 37
Projected Vallejo Mill Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 33 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
26. Warm Springs Elementary School
The enrollment of Warm Springs is projected to increase from 861 students in school year 2014/2015 to 998 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Warm Springs has a current program capacity of 1,032 seats. Table 38 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade. Please note that the projected increase at Warm Springs is primarily due the completion of the modernization of Warm Springs by school year 2016/2017 with third grade students returning from Leitch.
Table 38
Projected Warm Springs Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Warwick Elementary School ("Warwick") is projected to decrease from 860 students in school year 2014/2015 to 842 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Warwick has a current program capacity of 996 seats. Table 39 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 39
Projected Warwick Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 34 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
28. Weibel Elementary School
The enrollment of Weibel Elementary School ("Weibel") is projected to decrease from 862 students in school year 2014/2015 to 732 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Weibel has a current program capacity of 958 seats. Table 40 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 40
Projected Weibel Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Currently, there are several future residential developments which have not been assigned to an elementary school (i.e., Capitol Villas, Downtown Community Plan, State Street Mixed Use Project, and the US Gypsum Site). These four residential projects will consist of 2,611 residential units and are projected to produce 554 elementary school students through 2021/2022. These students have not been assigned to any elementary school.
Table 41
Projected Unassigned Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 35 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
30. New South Fremont Elementary School
The School District intends to construct an as-of-yet named new elementary school within the Warm Springs Community Plan ("New South Fremont Elementary"). The Warm Springs Community Plan will consist of 3,997 residential units and is projected to be 430 students through School Year 2021/2022. Table 42 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade. Please note that the construction of the Warm Springs Community Plan is expected to continue beyond the period of the Study and the number of elementary school students identified in Table 42 represent only a portion of the projected total enrollment to be generated from the Warm Springs Community Plan through completion.
Table 42
Projected New South Fremont Elementary School Enrollment through 2021/2022
At the junior high school level, enrollment is projected to increase from 4,875 students in school year 2014/2015 to 5,927 students in school year 2021/2022. This equates to a 21.58 percent increase in student enrollment at the junior high school level. Of the five (5) junior high schools, four (4) schools are projected to experience student enrollment growth by the end of the Study Period. Table 43 shows the projected junior high school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 43 Projected Junior High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 36 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
1. Centerville Junior High School
The enrollment of Centerville Junior High School ("Centerville") is projected to increase from 963 students in school year 2014/2015 to 1,145 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Centerville has a current program capacity of 1,128 seats. Table 43 shows the projected junior high school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 44 Projected Centerville Junior High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Hopkins Junior High School ("Hopkins") is projected to decrease from 987 students in school year 2014/2015 to 874 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Hopkins has a current program capacity of 1,140 seats. Table 44 shows the projected junior high school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 45
Projected Hopkins Junior High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Horner Junior High School ("Horner") is projected to increase from 1,032 students in school year 2014/2015 to 1,397 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Horner has a current program capacity of 1,104 seats. Table 45 shows the projected junior high school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Fremont Unified School District Page 37 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 46 Projected Horner Junior High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Thornton Junior High School ("Thornton") is projected to increase from 1,156 students in school year 2014/2015 to 1,506 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Thornton has a current program capacity of 1,038 seats. Table 46 shows the projected junior high school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 47
Projected Thornton Junior High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Walter Junior High School ("Walter") is projected to increase from 720 students in school year 2014/2015 to 987 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Walter has a current program capacity of 876 seats. Table 47 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 48
Projected Walter Junior High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
Fremont Unified School District Page 38 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
C. High School Enrollment Projection
At the high school level, enrollment is projected to increase from 9,912 students in school year 2014/2015 to 12,084 students in school year 2021/2022. This equates to a 21.91 percent increase in student enrollment at the high school level. Of the five (5) high schools, four (4) schools are projected to experience student enrollment growth by the end of the Study Period. Table 49 shows the projected high school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 49 Projected High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of American High School ("American") is projected to increase from 1,985 students in school year 2014/2015 to 2,757 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, American has a current program capacity of 1,926 seats. Table 50 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 50
Projected American High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Irvington High School ("Irvington") is projected to increase from 2,249 students in school year 2014/2015 to 3,022 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Irvington has a current program capacity of 2,252 seats. Table 51 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Fremont Unified School District Page 39 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 51 Projected Irvington High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Kennedy High School ("Kennedy") is projected to increase from 1,411 students in school year 2014/2015 to 1,714 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Kennedy has a current program capacity of 1,800 seats. Table 52 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 52
Projected Kennedy High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Mission San Jose High School ("MSJHS") is projected to decrease from 2,132 students in school year 2014/2015 to 1,980 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, MSJHS has a current program capacity of 2,364 seats. Table 53 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Fremont Unified School District Page 40 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 53 Projected Mission San Jose High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
The enrollment of Washington High School ("Washington") is projected to increase from 1,832 students in school year 2014/2015 to 2,308 students in school year 2021/2022. Based on the projected Capacity Summary prepared by the School District, Washington has a current program capacity of 2,124 seats. Table 54 shows the projected elementary school enrollment in school year 2021/2022 by grade.
Table 54
Projected Washington High School Enrollment through 2021/2022
D. Summary of Enrollment Projections by High School Attendance Area
The enrollment projections have been summarized by high school attendance area in order to help the School District visualize areas of growth and decline.
1. American High School Attendance Area
The American High School Attendance Area consists of Ardenwood, Brookvale, Forest Park, Oliveira, Patterson, and Warwick elementary schools, Thornton Junior High School, and American High School. Enrollment within the American High School Attendance Area is projected to increase from 7,969 students in school year 2014/2015 to 9,330 students in school year 2021/2022. Table 55 shows the projected enrollment of the American High School Attendance Area in school year 2021/2022 by facility.
Fremont Unified School District Page 41 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 55 American High School Attendance Area Projected Enrollment through 2021/2022
Grade 2014/2015 Enrollment
2021/2022 Enrollment
Growth/ (Decline)
Percentage Change
Ardenwood ES 965 954 (11) (1.16%) Brookvale ES 655 797 142 21.65% Forest Park ES 1,029 1,050 21 2.04% Oliveira ES 702 832 130 18.58% Patterson ES 617 592 (26) (4.13%) Warwick ES 860 842 (18) (2.05%) Subtotal Elementary 4,828 5,067 239 4.95% Thornton JHS 1,156 1,506 350 30.31% American HS 1,985 2,757 772 38.89% Subtotal Secondary 3,141 4,263 1,122 35.73% Grand Total 7,969 9,330 1,361 17.08%
2. Irvington High School Attendance Area
The Irvington High School Attendance Area consists of Green, Grimmer, Hirsch, Leitch, Warm Springs, and Weibel elementary schools, Horner Junior High School, and Irvington High School. Enrollment within the Irvington High School Attendance Area is projected to increase from 7,470 students in school year 2014/2015 to 8,429 students in school year 2021/2022. Table 56 shows the projected enrollment of the Irvington High School Attendance Area in school year 2021/2022 by facility.
Table 56 Irvington High School Attendance Area Projected Enrollment through 2021/2022
Grade 2014/2015 Enrollment
2021/2022 Enrollment
Growth/ (Decline)
Percentage Change
Green ES 477 511 34 7.06% Grimmer ES 373 374 1 0.15% Hirsch ES 540 578 38 7.09% Leitch ES 1,076 817 (259) (24.08%) Warm Springs ES 861 998 137 15.92% Weibel ES 862 732 (130) (15.07%) Subtotal Elementary 4,189 4,010 (179) (4.28%) Horner JHS 1,032 1,397 365 35.37% Irvington HS 2,249 3,022 773 34.37% Subtotal Secondary 3,281 4,419 1,138 34.68% Total 7,470 8,429 959 12.83%
3. Kennedy High School Attendance Area
The Kennedy High School Attendance Area consists of Azevada, Blacow, Brier, Durham, Mattos, and Millard elementary schools, the New South Fremont Elementary School, Walters Junior High School, and Kennedy High School. Enrollment within the Kennedy High School Attendance Area is projected to increase from 5,647 students in school year 2014/2015 to 6,814 students in school year 2021/2022. Table 57 shows the projected enrollment of the Kennedy High School Attendance Area in school year 2021/2022 by facility.
Fremont Unified School District Page 42 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 57 Kennedy High School Attendance Area Projected Enrollment through 2021/2022
Grade 2014/2015 Enrollment
2021/2022 Enrollment
Growth/ (Decline)
Percentage Change
Azevada ES 580 631 51 8.76% Blacow ES 443 416 (27) (6.03%) Brier ES 763 686 (77) (10.07%) Durham ES 512 754 242 47.27% Mattos ES 618 631 13 2.03% Millard ES 599 565 (35) (5.78%) New South Fremont 0 430 430 N/A Subtotal Elementary 3,516 4,113 597 16.99% Walters JHS 720 987 267 37.08% Kennedy HS 1,411 1,714 303 21.47% Subtotal Secondary 2,131 2,701 570 26.75% Total 5,647 6,814 1,167 20.67%
4. Mission San Jose High School Attendance Area
The Mission San Jose High School Attendance Area consists of Chadbourne, Gomes, Mission San Jose, and Mission Valley elementary schools, Hopkins Junior High School, and Mission San Jose High School. Enrollment within the Mission San Jose High School Attendance Area is projected to decrease from 6,008 students in school year 2014/2015 to 5,495 students in school year 2021/2022. Table 58 shows the projected enrollment of the Mission San Jose High School Attendance Area in school year 2021/2022 by facility.
Table 58
Mission San Jose High School Attendance Area Projected Enrollment through 2021/2022
Grade 2014/2015 Enrollment
2021/2022 Enrollment
Growth/ (Decline)
Percentage Change
Chadbourne ES 844 923 79 9.41% Gomes ES 780 648 (132) (16.92%) Mission San Jose ES 622 496 (126) (20.29%) Mission Valley ES 643 574 (69) (10.81%) Subtotal Elementary 2,889 2,641 (248) (8.60%) Hopkins JHS 987 874 (113) (11.45%) Mission San Jose HS 2,132 1,980 (152) (7.13%) Subtotal Secondary 3,119 2,854 (265) (8.50%) Total 6,008 5,495 (513) (8.55%)
5. Washington High School Attendance Area
The Washington High School Attendance Area consists of Cabrillo, Glenmoor, Maloney, Niles, Parkmont, and Vallejo Mill elementary schools, Centerville Junior High School, and Washington High School. Enrollment within the Washington High School Attendance Area is projected to increase from 6,509 students in school year 2014/2015 to 7,244 students in school year 2021/2022. Table 59 shows the projected enrollment of the Washington High School Attendance Area in school year 2021/2022 by facility.
Fremont Unified School District Page 43 Enrollment Projection Study January 23, 2015
Table 59 Washington High School Attendance Area Projected Enrollment through 2021/2022
Grade 2014/2015 Enrollment
2021/2022 Enrollment
Growth/ (Decline)
Percentage Change
Cabrillo ES 384 327 (57) (14.96%) Glenmoor ES 659 576 (83) (12.60%) Maloney ES 598 618 20 3.27% Niles ES 601 714 113 18.77% Parkmont ES 920 901 (19) (2.07%) Vallejo Mill ES 552 655 103 18.70% Subtotal Elementary 3,714 3,791 76 2.05% Centerville JHS 963 1,145 182 18.90% Washington HS 1,832 2,308 476 25.98% Subtotal Secondary 2,795 3,453 658 23.54% Total 6,509 7,244 735 11.29%
6. Other School Facilities/Unassigned
The School District provides alternative education options through its facilities and programs (i.e., College Connection, Robertson High School, and Vista Alternative). Additionally, as mentioned previously, currently there are four (4) future residential developments which have not been assigned to an elementary school attendance area yet. Projected future elementary school students from these developments are classified as having an unidentified attendance area. Lastly, non-public sectarian students are also included in this calculation. Enrollment within the Other School Facilities/Unassigned Attendance Area ("Other/Unassigned Attendance Area") is projected to increase from 332 students in school year 2014/2015 to 886 students in school year 2021/2022. Table 60 shows the projected enrollment of the Other/Unassigned Attendance Area in school year 2021/2022 by facility.
Table 60
Other/Unassigned Attendance Area Projected Enrollment through 2021/2022
Grade 2014/2015 Enrollment
2021/2022 Enrollment
Growth/ (Decline)
Percentage Change
Unassigned 0 554 554 N/A Non-Public School 12 12 0 N/A Subtotal Elementary 12 566 554 N/A College Connection 23 23 0 N/A Robertson HS 203 203 0 N/A Vista Alternative 55 55 0 N/A Non-Public School 39 39 0 N/A Subtotal Secondary 320 320 0 N/A Total 332 886 554 N/A
Exhibit A
Elementary School Attendance Information
Fremont Unified School DistrictElemenetary School Attendance InformationSchool of Enrollment vs. School of Attendance
Total 1,411 1,395 1,408 1,417 1,435 1,558 1,630 1,714
[1] Please note that the construction of the Warm Springs Community Plan is expected to continue beyond the period of the Study and the number of elementary school students above represent only a portion of the projected total enrollment to be generated from the Warm Springs Community Plan through completion.