FREEMAN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Luther L. McDougal, IV, CFA Whitney National Bank Senior Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager December 1, 2008 Presentation to the
Jan 20, 2016
FREEMAN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Luther L. McDougal, IV, CFA
Whitney National Bank
Senior Vice President and
Senior Portfolio Manager
December 1, 2008
Presentation to the
Surprise is the rule, not the exception.
Many aspects of investing are fun, but your future (your clients’ future) wealth isn’t a game. You should manage it in the most cold-blooded fashion. Emotion, pride, ego, dreams and nightmares have nothing to do with the process, although some investors rely on little else.
Client Profiles Corporations Foundations Trusts
Individuals
Tax bracket None Very low Very High Varies
Income needs None Low High Varies
Liquidity needs Low Moderate Varies Varies
Control Vested Stewards NoneVaries
Risk level High Moderate Moderate Varies
Knowledge Moderate Moderate LowVaries
Asset Allocation – 92%
Stock Selection/Timing – 8%
Portfolio Performance
Source: Brinson, Singer, and Beebower, "Determinants of Portfolio Performance II: An Update," Financial Analyst Journal, Vol. 47, No. 3,May-June 1991, pp. 40-48
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
John Maynard Keynes
SPX -40%NASDAQ -67%
SPX -41%MSCI EM -67%
“In the current market, you should have most of your money in something fairly conservative, such as a coffee can buried under your house. If you want to diversify, you might consider investing in two coffee cans.”
Dave Barry
I emphasize this psychological aspect of the matter (asset allocation), because those wonderful statistics on long-term returns are what the market did, not what any individual (or stock or fund) did, or would, if history replayed itself.
0.4%
0.9%
1.4%
1.8%
2.3%
2.8%
3.3%
3.7%
4.2%
4.7%
5.2%
0.4%
0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
2.1%
2.4%
2.8%
3.2%
3.6%
3.1%
1.4%
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
11.5%
11.0%
10.5%
10.0%
9.6%
9.1%
8.6%
8.1%
7.6%
7.1%
6.6%
11.5%
11.0%
10.5%
10.0%
9.6%
9.1%
8.6%
8.1%
7.6%
7.1%
6.6%
19.5%
18.5%
17.8%
17.1%
16.4%
15.6%
14.9%
14.5%
14.1%
13.7%
13.3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
83%
84%
84%
84%
83%
83%
83%
83%
83%
82%
83%
SmallestGain
The Consumer Price Index for October 2008 is preliminary.Data: Rolling 10 year annualized returns using monthly data (586 Observations)
Stocks: Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index • Bonds: 5 Year Treasury Bonds • Inflation: Consumer Price IndexSources: Standard & Poor's Corporation; Ryan Labs, Inc.; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Copyright © 2008 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2008 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • 14047 West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • 1-847-549-6015 • Internet: www.crandallpierce.com
Portfolio Mix:
ASSET ALLOCATION - RISK & REWARDTen Year Returns
January 1950 - October 2008 Percent of
Period Ending Smallest Average Average Average Largest Percent Percent Returns Greater10/08 Gain Loss Return Gain Gain Negative Positive Than Inflation
AverageReturn
LargestGain
238S-NC-10 -CCLXXII-
This copyright protected illustration is for internal use only. Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission from Crandall, Pierce & Company.The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
100% StocksNo Bonds
11.5%19.5%
0.4%
11.0%18.5%
0.9%
10.5%17.8%
1.3%
10.0%17.1%
1.7%
9.6%16.4%
2.1%
9.1%15.6%
2.4%
8.6%14.9%
2.8%
8.1%14.5%
3.2%
7.6%14.1%
3.6%
7.1%13.7%
3.1%
6.6%13.3%
1.4%
90% Stocks10% Bonds
No Stocks100% Bonds
80% Stocks20% Bonds
70% Stocks30% Bonds
60% Stocks40% Bonds
50% Stocks50% Bonds
40% Stocks60% Bonds
30% Stocks70% Bonds
20% Stocks80% Bonds
10% Stocks90% Bonds
0.3%
0.7%
1.1%
1.6%
2.0%
2.4%
2.8%
3.3%
3.7%
4.1%
4.6%
-4.2%
-3.1%
-1.9%
-0.8%
0.3%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
1.9%
0.6%
-1.7%
-1.1%
-0.6%
-0.5%
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
11.7%
11.1%
10.6%
10.1%
9.5%
9.0%
8.5%
7.9%
7.4%
6.9%
6.3%
12.6%
11.8%
11.0%
10.1%
9.5%
9.0%
8.5%
7.9%
7.4%
6.9%
6.3%
29.6%
28.1%
26.6%
25.1%
23.6%
22.1%
20.6%
20.0%
19.8%
19.7%
19.5%
7%
6%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
93%
94%
97%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
78%
78%
77%
78%
78%
81%
82%
82%
82%
82%
78%
WorstReturn
The Consumer Price Index for October 2008 is preliminary.Data: Rolling 5 year annualized returns using monthly data (646 Observations)
Stocks: Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index • Bonds: 5 Year Treasury Bonds • Inflation: Consumer Price IndexSources: Standard & Poor's Corporation; Ryan Labs, Inc.; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Copyright © 2008 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2008 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • 14047 West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • 1-847-549-6015 • Internet: www.crandallpierce.com
Portfolio Mix:
ASSET ALLOCATION - RISK & REWARDFive Year Returns
January 1950 - October 2008 Percent of
Period Ending Worst Average Average Average Largest Percent Percent Returns Greater10/08 Return Loss Return Gain Gain Negative Positive Than Inflation
AverageReturn
LargestGain
238S-NC-5 -CCLXXII-
This copyright protected illustration is for internal use only. Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission from Crandall, Pierce & Company.The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
100% StocksNo Bonds
11.7%29.6%
-4.2%
11.1%28.1%
-3.1%
10.6%26.6%
-1.9%
10.1%25.1%
-0.8%
9.5%23.6%
0.3%
9.0%22.1%
1.4%
8.5%20.6%
1.6%
7.9%20.0%
1.8%
7.4%19.8%
2.0%
6.9%19.7%
1.9%
6.3%19.5%
0.6%
90% Stocks10% Bonds
No Stocks100% Bonds
80% Stocks20% Bonds
70% Stocks30% Bonds
60% Stocks40% Bonds
50% Stocks50% Bonds
40% Stocks60% Bonds
30% Stocks70% Bonds
20% Stocks80% Bonds
10% Stocks90% Bonds
* Less Than 0.5%
-36.1%
-31.4%
-26.8%
-22.1%
-17.5%
-12.8%
-8.1%
-3.5%
1.2%
5.8%
10.5%
-38.9%
-34.9%
-30.9%
-26.9%
-22.8%
-18.8%
-14.8%
-10.8%
-6.7%
-5.0%
-4.9%
-9.9%
-8.7%
-7.3%
-6.1%
-5.1%
-3.7%
-2.8%
-2.4%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.7%
12.7%
12.0%
11.4%
10.8%
10.1%
9.5%
8.8%
8.2%
7.5%
6.9%
6.3%
19.2%
17.7%
16.2%
14.7%
13.2%
11.9%
10.4%
9.1%
8.2%
7.5%
7.4%
61.2%
57.8%
54.4%
51.0%
47.6%
44.2%
40.8%
37.4%
34.0%
30.9%
32.2%
22%
21%
20%
19%
17%
16%
12%
8%
6%
7%
12%
78%
79%
80%
81%
83%
84%
88%
92%
94%
93%
88%
71%
71%
71%
72%
71%
70%
70%
71%
71%
69%
63%
LargestLoss
Data: Rolling 1 year returns using monthly data (694 Observations)Stocks: Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index • Bonds: 5 Year Treasury Bonds • Inflation: Consumer Price Index
Sources: Standard & Poor's Corporation; Ryan Labs, Inc.; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Copyright © 2008 Crandall, Pierce & Company • All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2008 CRANDALL, PIERCE & COMPANY • All rights reserved • 14047 West Petronella Drive • Libertyville, Illinois 60048 • 1-847-549-6015 • Internet: www.crandallpierce.com
Portfolio Mix:
ASSET ALLOCATION - RISK & REWARDOne Year Returns
January 1950 - October 2008 Percent of
Year Ending Largest Average Average Average Largest Percent Percent Returns Greater10/08 Loss Loss Return Gain Gain Negative Positive Than Inflation
AverageReturn
LargestGain
238S-NC-1 -CCLXXII-
This copyright protected illustration is for internal use only. Under no circumstances may this illustration be copied, reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part including the data contained herein, without prior written permission from Crandall, Pierce & Company.The information presented herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. It is intended for illustrative purposes only, and is furnished without responsibility for completeness or accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
100% StocksNo Bonds
12.7%61.2%
-38.9%
12.0%57.8%
-34.9%
11.4%54.4%
-30.9%
10.8%51.0%
-26.9%
10.1%47.6%
-22.8%
9.5%44.2%
-18.8%
8.8%40.8%
-14.8%
8.2%37.4%
-10.8%
7.5%34.0%
-6.7%
6.9%30.9%
-5.0%
6.3%32.2%
-4.9%
90% Stocks10% Bonds
No Stocks100% Bonds
80% Stocks20% Bonds
70% Stocks30% Bonds
60% Stocks40% Bonds
50% Stocks50% Bonds
40% Stocks60% Bonds
30% Stocks70% Bonds
20% Stocks80% Bonds
10% Stocks90% Bonds
The Consumer Price Index for October 2008 is preliminary.
In the standard framework, risk is defined by the volatility of the underlying portfolio. Volatility is a one dimensional measure of market risk…the S & P 500 has a daily volatility (standard deviation) of about 1%. Within the confines of the mean-variance framework, this number indicates that we should expect a daily move greater than 2% only about once a month. A 3% move would happen once every three years, while the market crash of October 19, 1987, where the index fell by 20.47% should only happen once in a billion years.
"The word "genius" isn't applicable in football. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." NFL Quarterback and Sports AnalystJoe Theisman
While practitioners should understand the basics of investment theory, they should also question theories that travel poorly from the textbook to the real world. In theory, investment markets are relatively simple and follow predictable relationships. In practice, investors and markets are complex and difficult to predict. Effective practitioners are adept at bridging the gaps between theory and practice.
Capital Asset Pricing Model
- Diversification
- Risk versus Return
- Efficient Market
- Beta
Fama/French 3 Factor Model
- Efficient Market
- Value vs Growth
- Large vs small
- Beta of little importance
Core Model
The Core Model is an alpha model. It defies the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, suggesting that some stocks are mispriced and that a well constructed alpha model can provide market beating returns without taking on extra risk to do so. In particular, the model attempts to find the most attractive stocks within each business sector.
Universe – Russell 1000
Quality – S & P stock rating of B+ or better
Risk – Sector neutral
Diversification - 50 to 80 stocks
Core Model Quintiles
Fundamental Analysis
V
V
V
G
G
V
G
V
G
G
G
G
Cons Disc
Cons Stpl
Energy Fin Health Ind Tech Mats Telecom Utilities
SAMPLE
S&P 500
9.26% 13.03% 12.29% 14.02% 13.88% 10.48% 17.66% 2.51% 3.03% 3.84%
8.33% 13.20% 12.87% 13.95% 13.82% 11.25% 16.36% 3.37% 3.14% 3.71%
Equity Analysis
Holdings as of 9/30/2008
SECTOR ALLOCATION
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
# OF HOLDINGS
AVERAGE CAPITALIZATION
AVERAGE QUALITY
AVERAGE P/E (TRAILING 4 QTRS)
AVERAGE P/E (FORWARD 4 QTRS)
AVERAGE YIELD
AVERAGE PRICE/BOOK VALUE
AVERAGE PRICE/CASHFLOW
AVERAGE HISTORICAL GROWTH
AVERAGE LONGTERM GROWTH
AVERAGE BETA
SAMPLE S&PPORTFOLIO PROFILE
63
$45,761
A-
9.4
8.9
2.6%
1.8
6.5
20%
12%
0.91
500
$80,015
A-
12.8
11.3
2.8%
1.8
7.8
16%
11%
1.00
Equity Analysis
Holdings as of 9/30/2008
CORE EQUITY PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS