Fraser River Chinook Data Analysis, Management ... analysis... · Presentation to the Fraser Watershed Joint Technical Meeting January 28, 2009 Howie Wright, M.Sc., R.P.Bio. (ONA)

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Fraser River Chinook Data Analysis, Management Recommendations and

Improved Information Measuresprogress to date

Presentation to the Fraser Watershed Joint Technical Meeting January 28, 2009

Howie Wright, M.Sc., R.P.Bio. (ONA)Rishi Sharma, M.Sc., (ONA Chinook Analyst)Peter Nicklin, R.P.Bio, (UFFCA)

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Outline• Objectives• Methods• Results• Management Recommendations• Improved Information Recommendations• Next Steps to finalize

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Objectives• Conservation concerns

– Stream type Chinook

• Increasing FSC– DFO letter to Fraser FN that they can handle increasing

FSC through domestic measures

• Improving information– Poor data, poor information to make decisions

• Promote Collaboration– Working on ocean measures?– Working with UFFCA

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Guidance for Management Recommendations

• DFO Allocation policy – for Chinook not just FSC sharing since other user groups fishing

• Management decisions don’t compromise current technical information (want to improve)– don’t compromise implementation of CWT

indicator stocks

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What we did (methods)• Reviewed:

– CWT data– DFO documents/reports– Chinook Technical Committee Work– Genetic Stock Identification work

• Potential surrogate for Fraser stocks – Rishi Sharma• CWT distribution analysis – Rishi Sharma• Technical memo (in prep)

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• What are Okanagan and Upper Fraser Fisheries Alliance stocks of interest? How to manage in ocean fisheries?

• In the ocean fisheries aggregation of stocks for management action increases (e.g. CWT indicator stocks to evaluate exploitation rate)

• Groupings primarily by life history type similar ocean migration patterns

Stock Life History Fishery CWT Exploitation Rate CWT Indicator

Genetic Stock Identifiction

Conservation Unit

Salmon River

Summer 52 Historically Dome/Penny None South Thompson

STh Summer 1.3

BessetteCreek

Spring 42 Conservation concern

NicolaColdwater

Nicola South Thompson

STh BessetteCreek

Middle Shuswap

Summer 41 Yes Lower Shuswap

Lower Shuswap

South Thompson

STh Summer 0.3

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Surrogate stock analysis• Took DFO data used in the Exploitation Rate Analysis.• Analyzed Time-area differences by stock using GLM.• Analyzed Age based differences by area using GLM.

Statistical Model used

):)()()(exp( 33210 εβββββµ +++++= iiii SGGtfactorS

εβββββ +++++= iii SGGtfactorSLP :)()()( 33210

where LP is the Linear Predictor, s is the releases, t is the year effect, G is a stock. We assume that recoveries of age and stock in the fishery have an error structure distributed Poisson RV (not Normal).

Summary

• Nooksack not good indicator (should use stream specific indicators).

• However, we can observe recoveries in NWCVI, GSS and JFS (using Nicola).

• Recommend time area closures in some of these areas that would benefit Fraser-Early Spring Chinook.

• It also indicates that Nicola would be a good indicator even for Coldwater-Spius in terms of presence (and time-area stratification).

COLWDWATER_SPIUSMonth CENT&NCENCENFRAGEOGEO ST S GEOJOHJU DNORNWVI T SWVI N SWVI S SWVI T JdeF Sport North Troll BC FGrand Total

4 5 3 7 24 6 465 5 7 16 3 22 37 906 4 2 9 5 38 133 1917 1 5 132 1378 3 13 16

10 6 6Grand T 4 3 14 23 24 8 84 6 321 486

NICOLAMonth CENT&NCENCENFRAGEOGEO ST S GEOJOHJU DNORNWVI T SWVI N SWVI S SWVI T NORTH T TERMIN S WA WA WA Grand Total

1 3 32 4 43 1 14 19 5 3 275 26 5 108 35 5 4 22 2066 62 97 447 7 26 13 45 139 2 8377 13 4 11 245 142 3 7 66 13 130 89 2020 5 2 11 27618 4 49 2 20 18 10 3 1297 1 14049 6 2 6 14

10 9 9Grand T 106 4 11 401 720 3 20 18 7 114 39 157 141 3500 6 8 11 5266

COLDWATER_SPIUSMonth CENT&NTH S CENTR N CENTR T FRASER N GEO ST N GEO ST S GEO ST T JOHN ST N JU DE F N NORTH N NORTH T NWVI T SWVI N SWVI S SWVI T

4 0% 0% 0% 11% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 16% 0% 0% 0%5 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%6 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%7 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%8 0% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%NicolaMonth CENT&NTH S CENTR N CENTR T FRASER N GEO ST N GEO ST S GEO ST T JOHN ST N JU DE F N NORTH N NORTH T NWVI T SWVI N SWVI S SWVI T

1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0%5 13% 0% 0% 2% 0% 52% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 2%6 7% 0% 0% 12% 0% 53% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 1%7 0% 0% 0% 9% 0% 5% 0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 5%8 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1.4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%9 0% 0% 0% 40% 0% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Use of Nicola as an indicator

• May be higher ER than Coldwater-Spiusbased on recoveries in some areas, however that would err on the benefit of the stock.

• Accurate representation of temporal and area (presence/absence) coverage.

• Full blown test- Is it worth it?

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Ocean distributions “Myths”

• Used Shuswap – Upper Fraser Ocean Type• Used Penny- Upper Fraser Stream Type• Used Spius- Lower Fraser Stream Type

Shuswap-UF Ocean

Dome Penny-UF stream

Spius-LF Stream

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Summary• Fraser Spring 5.2

– Limited catch in ocean fisheries– No ER CWT indicator stock (Dome offline)– Use GSI methods for domestic caps

• Fraser 4.2– Nicola suggests approximately 25% CWT

recovery in ocean fisheries– Primarily during migration to spawn (age 4, 5)– Expand upon ET Chinook measures

• Fraser 4.1– Productive stock– Suggest GSI domestic cap

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Management RecommendationsUpper Fraser Spring (5.2)

• Implement measures to limit commercial catch in Northern BC (June/July) & WCVI Troll (April/May) AABM fisheries using GSI methods– Need to identify what GSI aggregate to use (i.e. Pool

MUFRS/UPFRS/NOTHOM/etc) to comprise at least 10% of catch.

– GSI aggregate needs to be about 5% of catch for current DNA sampling to be significant

– Recommend to cap at 5% composition of aggregate– Should benefit 4.2

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Management Recommendations• Implement GSI cap for Northern Troll

Fisheries (30% monthly cap) for 41 South Thompson– See GSI methods paper– Have example to go over if interest.

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Management Recommendations (4.2)• Option 1: Time area closures for recreational

fisheries in Juan de Fuca/Strait of Georgia during months of May-July– Data available from DFO

• Option 2: Catch and release (i.e. Non-retention) for recreational fisheries in Juan de Fuca/Strait of Georgia during months of May-July– Recommend catch and release and DNA sampling

program be developed

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Management Recommendations• CWT recoveries in WCVI Troll in northern

area. 2008 conservation measures were for only southern WCVI,

• Recommend additional time areas closures for north during months of April/May.

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Improved Information• Increase Monitoring of Recreational Fisheries in

Juan de Fuca/Strait of Georgia• Due to lack of CWT tags for Nicola/Coldwater

Spius, increase DNA sampling for 2009• Conduct similar surrogate analysis of Nicola and

Coldwater/Spius to confirm suitability of representation

• Review GSI baseline used in mgmt vs CUs• Work with DFO to ensure using same data set for

analysis and recommendations• Look at CWT implementation recommendations

from CTC

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Improved informationContinue to support ER indicator stocks

• Nicola (4.2) – online and need to increase CWT• Dome/Penny (Spring 5.2) – need to identify alternative• Lower Shuswap (Summer 4.1)– increase CWT• Coldwater/Spius??• Summer 5.2

– These are currently available but Dome/Penny offline soon

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Improved Information in-river (presentation last year)

• Acquire input from the JWTC during spring 2008– How to greatly increase CWT recoveries?– Discuss issues, impediments, ideas, awareness of catch

initiatives (e-logs), and opportunities to meet the goals

• Work with the JWTC to plan and prioritize an approach to achieve the goals– As the benefits are shared, collective insights and

planning contributions are invaluable

• Provide feedback to the JWTC on the progress toward the goals– What worked, what didn’t and why – what are we

learning?

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Metrics• How to document benefits of management measures?

– If you improve monitoring, how can you document benefits?• Example available if interested.

– If Catch and Release Fishery, can calculate indirect mortality– Compare to 5 year average of Recreational catch (what would

have happened if no catch and release).

• How to evaluate DFO statement of accommodating increasing FSC through domestic measures?– GSI Cap Method for 41

• Others?

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Next Steps• Strike a FWJTC workgroup to develop common

management and improved information recommendations.• Use language within FWJTC TOR to come to agreed upon

ocean management measures, i.e. A consensus based report (maybe start for next year?).

• FN/DFO discussion on in-river management measures –difference opinion of Allocation Policy (shared conservation burden). Raised at FNFC level to DFO.

• How has the conduct of Canadian AABM impacted Fraser Spring (5.2, 4.2) Stocks?

– i.e. Shaping WCVI AABM fishery from summer/fall to early spring– This is during migration period of Stream type Fraser stocks– See DFO presentation to PSC on using GSI.– Data might be available already (TC Chinook – 06-1)

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Stock Status: Spawner Abundance

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Ye a r

Chi

nook

Esc

apem

ent

Birkenhead

Interior group

•Interior group includes: Coldwater, Spius, Louis, Chilako, Cottonwood, U. Chilcotin

•2008 spawners for Interior group increased by 65% from 2007, but 2nd lowest since 1994 and lower than brood year.

•Birkenhead declined back to historic levels. Birkenhead unique far north marine distribution and very early spawnermigration. Different