Frank T. van Manen U.S. Geological Survey Interagency ...

Photo: Jake Davis

Frank T. van Manen U.S. Geological Survey Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team

Overview

• Background

• Bigger picture

• The bear part

Photos: Jake Davis Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Background

• IGBC winter meeting 2018

• IGBC Advisors formed a working group • Reviewed 2009 Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team

report (detailed assessment of conflicts/mortalities and recommendations)

• IGBC Chair requested subcommittees conduct similar reviews

• Identify priority issues, develop strategies and implementation plan

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Time line

• Summer 2019 IGBC: preliminary list of priority issues

• Winter 2019 IGBC: recommendations to address priorities

• Summer 2020 IGBC: final implementation strategies

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Source: IGBC

North Cascades

Yellowstone

Northern Continental

Divide

Bitterroot

Selkirk

Cabinet-Yaak

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Working Across Ecosystems

Selkirk and Cabinet-Yaak

1) defense of life or property

2) management related

3) mistaken ID

4) poaching/malicious killing

5) train/auto collisions

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Northern Continental Divide

1) shooting related

2) automobile strikes

3) train strikes

4) site-related conflicts

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Yellowstone

1) hunters and backcountry users

2) front country and community planning

3) efficacy of education and outreach

4) livestock producer outreach

5) targeted community outreach

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Big Picture:

Convergence of factors

Photo: Jessica Hadley/NPS Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

The degree of one's emotions varies inversely with one's knowledge of the facts. --Bertrand Russell

Photo: Jake Davis

Photo: F. van Manen/IGBST Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Factor #1:

Recovery

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Occupied Range

• 68,736 km2

• 98% of DMA occupied

• 30% outside DMA

• ~12,000 km2 private land

GYE: Occupied range

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution Source: IGBST

2004-2018

Factor #2:

Socioeconomic Trends

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Northwest: economic growth, 2001-2010

Source: Headwaters Economics

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Northwest: change in residential area, 2001-2010

Source: Headwaters Economics

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Source: Headwaters Economics Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

New homes, 1990-2016

80 km (50 miles)

Current occupied

range

&

Observations beyond

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Sources: IGBST, NCDE, CY/S technical teams

Factor #3:

Outdoor Recreation Trends

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Northwest: recreation counties, since 2010

Source: Headwaters Economics

Source: Headwaters Economics

Trail and pathway use, summer 2017, Flathead Co., MT

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Photo: Jessica Hadley/NPS Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Understanding

the Bear Part

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Human Caused AgencyRemoval

Natural Undetermined

1999-2008 2009-2018

NCDE: proportion of grizzly bear mortalities 1999-2008 vs. 2009-2018

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution Source: NCDE Technical Team

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

AnthropogenicFood

Augmentation LivestockDepredation

Other PropertyDamage

1999-2008 2009-2018

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

NCDE: proportion of agency grizzly bear removals 1999-2008 vs. 2009-2018

Source: NCDE Technical Team

GYE: Documented mortalities 2009-2018

• 26 natural

• 299 human-caused • 24 undetermined

• 349 total

Source: IGBST

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

GYE: estimated % total mortality of independent (≥2 yrs) grizzly bears 2002‒2018 (DMA only)

0

20

40

60

80

10020

02

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Perc

en

t m

ort

ality

Year

Independent females

Independent males

Female average = 7.0% Male average = 9.7% Source: IGBST Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

71% male

67% male

61% male

GYE: human-caused mortalities by category and sex 2009-2018

Source: IGBST Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

34% subadult, mean age = 8

24% subadult, mean age = 9

GYE: human-caused mortalities by category and age 2009-2018

21% subadult, mean age = 12

Source: IGBST Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution

Photo: Jake Davis

• Conflict trends likely here to stay

• Grizzly bear populations not in a crisis

• Issues are real - balancing act

• Strategic, multi-ecosystem & science-based approach

• Key role of IGBC and partner agencies

The Take-Aways

Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution