Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE 1/21/2010, Rev. 2.0.3 fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377; Link Bldg. Rm. 104 fleslie.

Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE

1/21/2010, Rev. 2.0.3

fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377; Link Bldg. Rm. 104

www.fit.edu/~fleslie

2.0a Current Energy Events and Status

http://my.fit.edu/~fleslie/CourseRE/ClassPres/ClassHTM/RE020aCurrentEvents_files/frame.htm

Tidevann

Commodity Markets 1/12/06 1/7/2007 1/21/2010

NYMEX Crude Oil Futures $64.55/bbl $56.17 $76.24

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures $9.26/mmBtu $6.18 $5.59NYMEX Heating Oil Future c/gal 156.53¢ 199¢NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures 175.93 ¢/gallon 170.00¢ 201¢Palo Verde On-Peak Spot Electricity $58.28/MWh $48.43 $48.53Local Melbourne FL Hess gasoline $2.32/gallon $2.33 $2.739

http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

2.0a Haitian Earthquake Damages Energy Systems

• Principal generation is from diesel-electric plants or hydro• Loss of transmission lines essentially total• Some stores, hospitals, homes, etc., may have

local generator but limited fuel• Utility power outage means nighttime paralysis; no

refrigeration• Fuel Considerations

• Diesel pumps, cooking oil, wood, paper + charcoal compressed into briquettes; deforestation

• Water• Broken pipes, tanker trucks?, impassible roads• Water pumped by electricity or fuel? Manual wells?

100121

US Haitian Aid

• US military provides ships, planes, trucks, etc.• Skilled in logistics for battle now changed to a

different humanitarian mission• Troops to stop looters and protect from gangs• Medical field hospitals set up• Naval shipboard hospitals brought in (USNS

Comfort)• American Red Cross mobilizing• Specialized search and rescue teams for extraction

and recovery from many cities and states• Massive food and water needs – but donate cash• A ship could power the city, but powerlines are

down

100119

2.0a Scott Brown Election Upset

MA senator Scott Brown (R) bested Marsha Coakley (D) to win the US Senate seat by a landslide (previously held by Edwin Kennedy) (MA is a primarily Democratic state)Major upset, and the Democrats 60-vote

majority is broken, possibly leading to loss of the Health Care bill

Energy bill had been put off to push health care bill before State of the Union address

Brown’s energy policies “Cap-and-trade is a national energy tax. (Jan 2010) Opposes cap-and-trade system, but renewables OK. (Jan 2010) Promote increased use of alternative fuel technology. (Nov 2002) “*

Read www.ontheissues.org/Background_Energy_+_Oil.htm Astounding change likely in the US Senate and its bills Impending 2010 House election will see more changes (“that

you can believe in”) Can’t predict the outcome!

100120 * www.ontheissues.org/senate/Scott_Brown.htm

Selected Energy Headlines of 2009-10

• 2010 Jan: Oil 1/12/10, $82, then $77 on 1/19/10, – is all well with “cheap oil”?

$147 crude oil peak in October 08 falling to $39, now $77 on 1/19/10No need for renewables anymore?

New energy bill may languish in Congress and dieFor some current prices, see

http://money.cnn.com/markets/commodities/ http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Possible offshore drilling on continental shelf?Cape Wind project challenged by American Indian

tribe – will block the rising sun!

100119

US Energy Policy Act of 2010(?)

Unknown status – backroom deals? When?Cap-and-Trade: Set limits on emissions and

establish tradable emission certificates (ratepayers buy), a.k.a. Cap-and-Tax”

Carbon Tax: penalty on electricity carbon emissions that will increase ratepayers price (Waxman-Markey)

American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009Senate S. 1733Copenhagen meeting unsuccessful, thus bill may fail EPA would then promulgate rules for GHG reduction

at high expense until Congress acts

Selected Energy Headlines of 2008

• 2008 Jan: Oil ranges from mid-$90s to $97 and for 1/20/09, $37 – is all well with “cheap oil”?

$147 crude oil peak in October 08 falling to $39, now $38 on 1/12/09

“U.S. lawmakers unveiled a raft of energy-related bills in the early hours of the 110th Congress aimed at boosting fuel ethanol use, extracting liquid fuels from coal and tightening automobile fuel efficiency rules. “ [Reuters]

Bush will allow offshore drilling on continental shelfSenator Obama becomes President

Favors renewables, conservation & efficiency; perhaps nuclear, “Clean Coal”

100120

Toyota Highlander

Will OCS Drilling Help US?

Dr. Kyriacos Zygourakis is a professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University .

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/46195

100112

2a.1 Overview of Energy Issues

Energy decisions are influenced by supply and demand, politics, earmarks or “pork”, public interest or protests, availability, fuel source commodity changes, and economics

Ten-year construction time of a utility plant requires a reasonably stable market to justify construction loans

Uncertainty of the energy commodity markets can destabilize the perception of future energy needs

Proposed energy plants, even renewables, are usually met with opposition from potential neighbors (NIMBYs) or distant NGOs (nongovernmental organizations)What’s a “CAVE”? (;-)

100120

2a.2.1 Recent Energy-Related Events

Still . . . : Pres. G.W. Bush wanted to drill for oil in Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR); environmentalists fighting potential pollution; estimates are that oil could satisfy US needs for six months to twelve years in only 10 years depending upon who estimates; could be held in reserve as part of SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), opened Bristol Bay, Alaska for drilling 1/10/07

Cape Wind still striving for first plant near Nantucket against much opposition www.capewind.org;

$20B invested in renewable energy vs. $150B in all global power – Erin Martinot

100120

(within ~1 year)

2a.2.1 Recent Energy-Related Events, 2

The massive stimulus “bailout” bill entered US House debate 1/15/09 $20 billion in renewable energy tax cuts$32 billion to improve energy transmission and

encourage the development of battery-powered vehicles

Senate Republicans will try to block and introduce their own version

Some $1.3 trillion in stimulus money “spreading around”

OPEC forecasts decline in crude oil demand by 180,000 bbls/day! Prices would fall

100120

(within ~1 year)

2a.2.1 The Kyoto Protocol

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol required participating nations to reduce pollutants below 1990 levels (they’re failing to do so)

President Clinton did not present the treaty to Congress since it would not have been ratified; Pres. Bush also declined to ask; moot when Obama took office

Russian Duma ratified it, thus passage of 55% of nations threshold occurred, and the protocol was then in force

Developing nations such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, (BRIC) and are exempted from the treaty provisions, yet will produce far greater pollution than developed nations in coming years!As much as 75% of world emissions are expected to come

from developing nations in 2040 – Paul Beckner Developing nations could pollute freely and sell their energy to

nations constrained by Kyoto; Mexico could pollute the US and yet sell energy to the US

Natural emissions of GHG may be five times the human contribution

100120

2a.2.1b The Copenhagen Meeting

The December 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference accomplished only a desire to reduce emissions – a quota to be defined by each country

There are only goals, but no law resulting from all this

Nations would not commit to binding emission level reductions with penalties

Developing countries wanted money from developed countries --- “social justice”?

It lacked only a “Mission Accomplished” banner flying on the White House as “happy face” was put on the lack of results

Lots of jet fuel burned getting delegates there100119

2a.2.1 Recent Energy-Related Events, 3

The “Big Three” auto makers made most profit selling large cars and SUVsPublic interest changed to small, fuel-efficient

vehicles with less profit, threatening the companies with bankruptcy unless taxpayers bailed them out

GM Chevy “Volt” ads are running on TVBattery electric car, not a hybrid yetRange of about 40 miles only meets needs of

93% of driving publicElectric cars seem back in favor; grid charging now

ok“Cash for Clunkers” moved sales up; taxpayers

subsidized payments of $4800 for crushing useable cars and trucks

100121

2a.2.2a The US Energy Policy

The US Energy Policy of May 2001 set the structure for future energy approaches; updated by Energy Policy Acts of 2005 & 2006, 2007, 2008, etc. See Title 10 of the C.F.R.

The Clean Coal Program is being researched to develop very low emissions after costly stack gas cleaning

Renewables now comprise a small part (~ 4%) of US energy sources, even including large hydroHydro is indirect solar power and IS renewableEmphasized because some enviros say it’s not renewable

Advanced nuclear or coal plants could supply H2 for “Hydrogen Economy” as an alternate to natural gas (NG) (depleting); 97% H2 comes from NG

Some clamor that nuclear is “renewable” – no CO2

Pres. Bush said, “America is addicted to oil”

100119

2a.2.2b The US Energy Policy Act of 2007

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards increased from 25 mpg to 35 mpg for cars and light trucks by 2020

Renewable electricity standard (RES) that would require 15% of utility power from renewables was removed from the bill by Democrats to prevent certain defeatSome states would have to buy Renewable Energy

Certificates if they didn’t reach the 15%, increasing consumer power costs

RE is easy for states of Texas, Washington, and Oregon, perhaps impossible for Florida

DOE directed to provide $20.5B for nuclear reactors & fuel plus $10B for RE and $8B for clean coal [Florida Today, 12/18/07

Lamp bulbs must be 70% more efficient by 2020 [Paul Davidson, USA Today, 2007]

100112

2a.2.2c The US Energy Policy Act of 2008

Speaker Pelosi withdrew new CAFÉ standard from bill to prevent a filibuster; wanted 50 mpg(?) [Why not 500 miles per gallon?? --- FRL]

Solar tax credits extended for 10 years

090120

2a.2.2c The US Energy Policy Act of 2009-10

Pushed off due to Health Care bill difficultiesUS Energy Policy Act of 2010 remains to be seenMany aspects incorporated in the American

Recovery and Reinvestment Act: efficiency, tax rebates, etc.

Cap & Trade will increase consumer electricity prices

100120

“This is the Waxman-Markley comprehensive energy bill, known for short as "ACES," that includes a cap-and-trade global warming reduction plan designed to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent by 2020. Other provisions include new renewable requirements for utilities, studies and incentives regarding new carbon capture and sequestration technologies, energy efficiency incentives for homes and buildings, and grants for green jobs, among other things.” http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h2454/show#bill_list

2a.2.2d Arctic Nat’l Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)

ANWR has a contentious past (but dropped out of sight now)Potential oil and gas reserves of ~1 year 10 years from

now“Equivalent to 30 years of Saudi Arabia imports”

$10.4B reserves located in Northeastern AlaskaCoastal plain with some towns; no trees

Drilling might interfere with wildlife migrationEnvironmentalists fighting to preserve area for caribou

Removed from 2005 Energy Policy Act to avoid blocking passage

Added to Defense Dep’t. Budget BillHouse passed, but Senate couldn’t get votes to overcome

Democratic filibuster 12/21/2005; withdrawn for possible later action

100121

2a2.2.e Obama Energy Policy

Create “New Energy” economy Millions of [union] jobs in wind turbines, solar, modernizing

electrical grid, sustainable energy , innovative solutions, independence from fossil fuelsExcept for Future Gen “clean coal” to hydrogen (in

Obama’s Illinois coal state) Global Climate Changes --- international agreements New Energy Team --- Energy Secretary, Dr. Stephen Chu,

nuclear physicist, led Berkeley National Labs, became interested in climate change and energy

Lisa Jackson, EPA Admin. Air pollution, protect environment; Nancy Sutley, Chair WH Council on Enviro Quality, sustainable path and future; Carol Browner, “Energy Czar”, Energy & Climate

100112

2a2.2.e Obama Energy Policy

Obama’s pick for Secretary of Interior Sen. Ken Salizar (D-CO)

Noon 1/15/09: “President-elect Barack Obama's pick to lead the Interior Department promised to help wean the country off foreign oil by expanding renewable energy on public lands and promoting the "wise use" of traditional energy sources. “ Associated PressHe wants to balance RE with coal, oil, and gasDOI has Bureau of Public Lands where many

resources are extracted

100121

But check out what Pelosi did in banning solar thermal plants in the Mohave Desert

2a2.2.e Obama Energy Policy, 2

Develop job transition to clean energy technology re-educate (unionized) auto workers (?) to do green energy

Double RE funding (still not much)Change from fossil fuels to renewables such as

wind, solar, etc. Use nuclear with other as a 30-year transition;

develop “clean” coal & coal to liquidsAir Force flew plane on 50% biofuel to Iraq

Emphasis on energy conservation and efficiency

100120

2a.2.3.1 US --- Misc. Details

FPL merging with Constellation to be Constellation Energy? “Never mind”; cancelled

Duke merged with Cinergy for $8.5B Exelon merged with New Jersey's Public Service Enterprise

Group Inc. for $16 billion New York State Renewable Portfolio Standard mandates

25% RE by 2013; 19% now large hydro; to be wind, hydro, biomass

Mild winter weather lowers fuel oil demand and heating oil future price

Seven governors in NE form Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI; called “reggie”) to cut CO2 10% by 2019

US “green” power increased to 4500 GWh annually Florida PSC denied FPL rate increase to build nuclear,

natural gas and solar plants for cleaner energy (less CO2)100120

2a.2.3.2 US --- Energy Markets

The “Grid” moves electric energy from high voltage sources to slightly lower voltage loads

Losses occur along transmission lines of ~1 - 5%Wind energy can be put into the grid and sold far away

“Wind electrons” don’t travel all the way to the loadJust a commodity trade of ~$35/MWh in large blocks

Carbon offsets, carbon footprints, CO2 market trading

Fly all over the world and pay for plane emissions offset; may be a scam --- Federal Trade Commission

080120

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html

2a.2.3.2 US --- Energy Markets

080109

Average Weekly Coal Commodity Spot Prices

Business Week Ended January 04, 2008

Prices continue to trend upwards or fluctuate

Natural gas is most volatile fuel

2a.3 Worldwide Markets

Oil (and sub-products) and natural gas are marketed and shipped on the international commodity market A commodity is somewhat indistinguishable regardless

of source (fungible) -- Crude oil futures $76 on 1/21/2010

Branding is sometimes used to attempt to get a better price -- like Florida orange juice vs. California OJ

If oil exporter decides not to sell to US, they sell elsewhere, and US buys from that country

OPEC (~15 countries) decides on total production based on price; allocated based upon reserves; estimated reserves may be kited to get more market share + Russian influence

100112

2a.3.1 Worldwide Markets

Gasoline is often the same to the tank truck distribution point, where additives color the gasoline with dyes or provide cleaning solvents, but mostly they enhance marketing content

Volatile fuel prices, but trends higher with time

Natural gas price shows winter demand cyclic peaks for Northern states heating; storm dependentUtilities compete with homeowners on

price; same with #2 heating oil, which competes with diesel

100120

The US has large coal reserves that are expected to last ~200 years Potential for building 40GW of new plants (for reference, St. Lucie

nuclear plant ~1.7GW); coal killed by Florida Public Service Commission “Clean Coal” with reduced emissions is heavily Federal-subsidized Coal mining kills 1000s of miners each year worldwide

2a.2.4.1 Coal

080105

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html

CO2 declared a pollutant that EPA must regulate; EPA deciding what to do

FPL “Clean Coal” plant request rejected by FPSC; four others also rejected

Coal-to-liquid transportation fuel is controversial; developed by Germans during World War II; “synfuel”

2a.2.4.2 Petroleum (Crude Oil)

Raw crude oil is a commodity traded in the world market The 42-gallon barrel price fluctuates with worldwide demand $57/barrel on 12/21/2005; $62 on 12/4/06; $56 on 1/5/2007;

$53.75 on 1/11/07; broke $100 on 1/2/08; $38 on 1/20/09; $76 on 1/21/10

Affects stock market and trading psychology Turmoil in foreign countries affects world market; Kenya and

Nigeria violence killed many; Foreign companies disliked and attacked

#2 fuel oil is widely used for home heating in the Northeast Homeowners compete with large utilities for fuel Mild 2006 winter meant more diesel fuel available & less heating

oil produced; same for 2007 Cold weather now would use more oil and drive prices higher

Multitude of products and materials such as gasoline, diesel, plastics feedstocks produced from petroleum

TV stock pundit Jim Cramer, Street.com, observes that many oil fields now require more drilling of wells just to get the same production, so invest in drilling companies (disclaimer: I did with FSESX, a mutual fund)

100120

2a.2.4.2 Crude Oil Prices

As supply and demand meet, high volatility results$147 peak then fell to $33 and is now about

$76Estimates (rumors) of $10 to $200/gallon

are rampantAs gasoline reached $4/gallon, drivers cut back,

changed routes, consolidated trips, bought smaller vehicles with better fuel economyPrices below $3/gallon and yet the surplus of

supply led to worldwide “demand destruction” and prices fell

100121

2a.2.4.2.1 Top Exporters

OPEC controls the prices of its members

World market also controls by supply and demand

The United States imports much of its foreign oil supply from Venezuela (12 to 15% of US needs) Politics and union strikes

dominate Venezuela oil market

Pres. Chavez is a socialist and anti-US, pro-Cuba; reelected 12/2006; inaugurated 1/10/07

Pres. Castro of Cuba may hire China to extract Gulf oil

100112 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables1_2.htmlhttp://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1408

Top World Oil Producers, 2008(thousand barrels per day)

Rank CountryProducti

on 

1 Saudi Arabia 10,782  

2 Russia 9,790  

3 United States 8,514  

4 Iran 4,174  

5 China 3,973  

6 Canada 3,350  

7 Mexico 3,186  

8 United Arab Emirates 3,046  

9 Kuwait 2,741  

10 Venezuela 2,643  

11 Norway 2,466  

12 Brazil 2,402  

13 Iraq 2,385  

14 Algeria 2,180  

15 Nigeria 2,169

2a.2.4.2.2 Iraq

$1.3B-$18B oil smuggling was known to UN Security Council but was not stopped according to Paul Volcker [Seattle Post Intelligencer, 12/27/2004]; different from “oil-for-food” (or oil-for-palaces) program that the UN also mishandled

Iraq has significant oil reserves (third) yet has a fraction of the World marketGreatest price effect is from psychological impact

of turmoil on markets; panic drives speculatorsUnstable population prevents normal production

Oil pipelines are readily sabotaged as they often are exposed above sand, isolated, and easy to bomb

100121

2a.2.4.2.3 Iran

Iran is developing nuclear power with Russian & Chinese helpUseful for ensuring more oil to export when prices

soarGreatest price effect is from psychological impact

of turmoil on marketsHandy for nuclear weapons, too!

They sell oil on the world market under OPEC membership

Wanted to change OPEC valuation to Euros due to inflation of the US dollar but motion didn’t pass at OPEC meeting

100112

2a.2.4.2.4 Afghanistan

Afghanistan could be a route to bring petroleum pipelines from Turkmenistan in the north to the Arabian Sea for ease of water export

Turkmenistan has onshore and Caspian Sea oil fields

Turmoil in Afghanistan prevents development; tribal chiefs (politically incorrect: warlords) control remote areas

National government tenuous at best

100121

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1585000/images/_1585197_afghan_targets2_300.gif

2a.2.4.3 Natural Gas (NG)

Clean-burning NG is the utility fuel of choice because of low emissions

Supplies are limited in N. America, and importation from overseas by liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers will become necessaryEnvironmentalists are fighting any new LNG terminals,

saying that conservation and efficiency are all that is required to reduce demand

Natural gas is widely used for home heating in the Midwest Dow executive says 30 to 40 times current LNG terminals are

needed to meet future demand LNG pipeline and terminal proposed for Fort Lauderdale FL and

off Tampa10 miles offshore; LNG gasified from seawater heat; reduces

hazard that Boston hasSee the huge LNG tanker attacked by terrorists in the

closing moments of the oil intrigue thriller movie “Syriana” (couldn’t happen here since would be stopped just like drug smugglers)

Yemeni LNG ships enter Boston Harbor in 2010100121

lngpedia.com

2a.2.4.3 Natural Gas Field Peaking

090115 http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4933

2a.2.4.3.1 Merchant Power Plants

Merchant plants sell power to utilities on short notice (phone call), as they can be started and deliver full power in about 20 minutes

The Oleander Plant near I-95 and FL 520 went online ~11/2002; 5 aeroderivative turbines (simple-cycle without HRSG); combined-cycle turbines would have been more efficient but would not qualify under PURPA (Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act) law defectLocal enviros claimed exhaust would kill birds flying

through Clean NG plants can burn oil if cheaper that day Power is sold under “Power Purchase Agreements” in

blocks of megawatt-hours at about $35 per megawatt-hour

100121

2a.2.4.4 Nuclear Energy

Iran talks resume, stop, resume, stop, resume, etc. Power, or for weapons

Some say oil-rich Iran doesn’t need nuclear power, but when oil becomes extremely expensive, say $300/bbl, they will want local power from other means so they can export all the oil

Russia may host Iranian fuel processing and reprocessing World nuclear power cleanup means high expenses --- ~$1.7T Yucca Mt. divisive debate; Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is new

majority leader and controls what bills go to the floor and which are ignored, so Yucca Mt. is dead and Obama will close it

More nuclear plants proposed for Florida to diversify energy sources, and the alternative is coal (coal rejected by FPSC)No CO2, so being pushed as “Clean Energy” (I like renewables, but massive power is needed from

conventional utilities)

100121

2a.2.4.4 Nuclear Uranium Depletion

Uranium supplies diminish as more is mined; price will rise Time to peak varies, but may be 30 years from 2007

100105

2a.2.4.4.1 North Korean Nuclear Plants

The US had been selling oil to North Korea to keep them from starting/continuing their nuclear program (possible weapons)

A side effect of nuclear power plants is that the plutonium content of the fuel rods increases with age, and weapons might be made from the “spent fuel” through reprocessing

When the US stopped oil sales because of North Korean missile sales, North Korea announced that it must again turn to nuclear power to get energy; US fears weapon development

North Korea has now disconnected or blocked IDEA surveillance cameras at their power plants and pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

They now claim to have reprocessed uranium to get plutonium for nuclear weapons

080101

2a.2.4.5 Hydropower

China building 12.6GW Xiluodu dam; 22.4GW now at Three Gorges Dam ( Three Gorges had transmission line outage recently)

Belize completed 7.3MW dam; earlier, build 25MW dam at Macal River; these are <30MW and are “small” hydro

Primary power source in WA, OR, & AZ Smaller hydro in many other states; Florida has two plants

near Tallahassee; 30 MW and 45 MW (Florida Tech has 0.000003 MW!)

Small dams often now being removed (Snake River, ID) Methane and CO2 emissions from decaying organic matter

in reservoir?Emissions are worse in tropical heat

100121

2a.2.4.6.1 Land/Onshore Wind Energy

Atlantic City NJ has 5 new turbines at a sewage treatment plant that will supply much of the power there

100121

http://www.matternetwork.com/images/Matter/atlanticcity.jpg

2a.2.4.6.2 Offshore Wind Energy

Wind is strong and steady offshore, but installation is costly in seabed

US has 900 GW offshore potential DOE, GE, and Univ. Mass form Mass Tech Collaborative LILA project ended due to cost doubling Galveston Offshore Wind to build 7 miles off Galv. Island; 50

wind turbines 150MW in 4 to 7 years Minerals Management Service, US DOI has offshore authority Floating Hywind 3MW turbines 80m above water; 90m diameter GE opened turbine plant near Raleigh NC

GE makes blades in Pensacola FL Clipper Windpower developing a 7.5 MW offshore turbine for UK

080105

2a.2.4.7 Solar Energy

ECD Ovonics opening thin-film plant in China; 25MW/year

San Diego buying power from Stirling dishes; 300MW 6000 units in 3 square miles; Powerlight?

NYC BIPV rated 210kWp at Stillwell Ave. StationAs EU fails to meet Kyoto Protocol, more solar

cells will go from US factories to Germany, etc. (For reference, the St. Lucie Nuclear Plant is 2

cells x 850MW)FPL building 300 MW of solar thermal trough plant Netherland company building roadway solar

thermal collector to heat adjacent buildings

080105

2a.2.4.8 Geothermal Energy

The Geysers CA (near Calistoga) continues to provide steam turbine power

Air conditioning Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) can extract or reject heat using ground water, significantly increasing the efficiency

Common with Florida 68-degree artesian water in 1960sHeated water was dumped

080105

2a.2.4.9.1 Ocean Current Energy

New system to be deployed near Portugal Palatka-based Ocean Systems prototyped 10-ft diameter

turbineLocations like Gulf Stream are limitedRivers might use similar designs

Florida Atlantic University starting a $5M Ocean Center to extract energy from the Gulf Stream with underwater turbinesCould fulfill 30% of Florida’s needs

080105

2a.2.4.9.2 Ocean Wave Energy

Pelamis pipeline-type prototype installed US Navy funding 1MW wave farm off Hawaii Linear generator installed in UK in 2005 [like shaker

flashlights [not Shaker (;-) ]) SDE 40MW Sri Lanka plant

Hydraulic piston motors drive generators Ocean Power Technology 1MW Oahu Hawaii Manchester “Bobber” scale model deployed Finavera’s AquaBuoy 2.0 test buoy sank of Oregon coast;

lasted two months [ON&T, Vol. 13, Issue 8, Dec07] 1 MW Irish Wavebob prototype

080105

2a.2.4.9.3 Ocean Tidal Energy

Tidal power was used in US ~1700 for grain millsTest installations in North Sea near Scotland, Orkney“Total Delay” to be constructed about 2007/2008Canada’s Bay of Fundy 1.2 MW SeaGen turbine from

UKMarine Current Turbine’s 300kW unit shown below left;

others right

051230 http://www.hie.co.uk/aie/tidal_power.html

2a.2.4.9.4 Ocean Thermal Energy

Ocean Thermal Energy Lab in Hawaii now supplies cooling water for buildings; was in shutdown due to high costs

OTEC is too expensive for power production now ---

But, wait! There’s more! Legal pork “earmark” got millions to restore operation Japan is planning an OTEC installation at an atoll

081218http://www.nrel.gov/otec/what.html

Source: SeaSolarPower.com

2a.2.4.10 Biomass Energy

Brazil sugar production diverted to ethanolBrazil drilling for oil offshore, using many production

rigs, and less ethanol will be used Major potential source of Florida renewable energy

Protests starting over land useEthanol pollution and low energy efficiency claimsMore energy to produce than can be gotten out of it, or

maybe the reverse: 0.7 to 1.3 ratios; 1.0 is not worth conversion

Direct combustion and cofiring Sugar to ethanol & oils to biodiesel Cellulose converted by enzymes into desired product Florida sweet sorghum and jatropha planting for biodiesel

0811218

2a.2.5.1 International

United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Stated global warming exists and much is caused by humans Ice melting and sea level rise is a global warming concern It’s about 1 to 3.8 mm per year --- wear your boots!

Kyoto protocol cuts carbon emissions below 1990 reference year Most countries can’t do it now Bali conference had GHG people flying from all over the world

to save energy and cut emissions! Kyoto expires soon UN Montreal COP11 meeting discussed further energy and

emission policy US and China declined to join talks for binding limits due to

economic constraints European Parliament wants 20 to 25% renewables [RE News] Berlin mandates new buildings have 75% solar power US greenhouse gases (GHG) rose 2% in 2004 [EIA] Copenhagen Accord meeting had only goals

100121

2a.2.5.1.1 Iran

Iran is the second largest oil producer with a total of 3.5 MM bpd. [Source: AFP,

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/features/fex21800.htm ] Iran has extensive oil fields supplying 10% of

World’s oil energyNew agreements to supply China with oil

Multibillion dollar pipelines are planned to IndiaIran has agreed to temporary halt to nuclear

reprocessing capability (but continues?)China backs Iran for oil in the UN Security CouncilDifficult political problem; Russia supplies nuclear

materials to IranStriving for independent nuclear capability

081218

2a.2.5.1.2 China

China developing more hydro, wind, and solar energy

Three Gorges dam has 26 turbines x 700MW = 18 000 GW and has 175 m height [Renewable Energy World, Nov/Dec 04]

Greatly increased Chinese car and truck production demands more gasoline and diesel; they compete on the World market for oil

Gains minority stake in Russia’s Yukos oilTried to buy California SOCAL oil company but

blocked by US government

080105

2a.2.5.1.3 India

India developing more hydro, wind, and solar energy

Deregulating coal to increase production 1/11/07Greatly increased car and truck production

demands more gasoline and diesel; they, too, compete on World market

Tata Motors selling a US$2500 car that attracts more first-time car owners

India’s population growing faster than China and will soon surpass China in population and energy demands

081218

2a.2.5.1.4 Russia

Russian Gazprom withheld NG from Ukraine, but European Union gas is supplied at west end; now resolved after two weeks ~1/20/09

090120 http://images.angelpub.com/2008/10/226/russia-europe-pipelines.gif

2a.2.5.1.4a Ukraine Effects

“THE SITUATION IN TRANS-DNIESTER [Moldova] HAS BEEN VERY BAD FOR MORE THAN A WEEK. WE GOT OUR HEATING BACK THIS MORNING, A WEEK AFTER IT WAS TURNED OFF. AND WE ARE STILL WITHOUT GAS FOR COOKING. WE CAN'T COOK ANYTHING NOW AND WHAT WE EAT REMINDS ME OF THE STUDENT DAYS. WE HAD A BREAD CRISIS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. PEOPLE STARTED BUYING BREAD IN PANIC AS THERE WERE FEARS THAT THE BAKERIES WILL STOP WORKING. THERE WERE LONG QUEUES FOR BREAD IN THE MORNING AND THEN YOU COULDN'T FIND BREAD ANYWHERE. THE VACATION FOR SCHOOLCHILDREN HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NEXT WEEK. MY MUM IS A TEACHER AND SHE GOES TO SCHOOL ONLY TO DO ADMIN WORK.

MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE GETTING SICK. PHARMACISTS SAY THEY'VE BEEN SELLING MORE MEDICINE FOR COLD AND FLU.

THE DISPUTE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE IS CONTINUING AND PEOPLE ARE VERY ANGRY. PEOPLE SAY THAT IT HASN'T BEEN SO BAD FOR 40 YEARS. AS OUR REGION IS VERY PRO-RUSSIAN, EVERYONE BLAMES UKRAINE FOR OUR SUFFERING. “ --- Maria Droganova

090115http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7830947.stm

2a.2.5.1.5 US General Energy Costs

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Type Cost $ per kWto build plant

Cost per kWh

Wave $650,000 “very low” , <3 - 10¢?

Coal $1500 3¢

Natural Gas $900 3.5¢

Solar $1500 12¢

Wind $3000 3.6¢

Geothermal $1300 - 2500 2.5 - 10¢

Ocean Thermal $1500 unknown

Biomass $700-1800 unknown

ON&T, 11/22/05 p.48

Europe: Onshore and offshore wind turbines; High fuel taxes

Greece: Solar, wind, geothermal, biomass = greatest use of renewable energy in Europe

Bolivia: Socialist president elected 12/18/2005 Hydrogen can be electrolyzed for sale at $4 to $15 per kg PA 680MW solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by

2020

2a.2.5.1.5 Other Areas of Interest

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Oil man T. Boone Pickens has invested $58 million in advertising his plan to get us off foreign oil Build windfarms through the Great Plains

(pulled back when oil price fell) Use natural gas to power 350,000 18-

wheeler trucks with compressed natural gas in three years

Has met with the chief politicians to push his plan (helps to be a billionaire)

2a.2.5.1.5 The Pickens Plan

100121 http://www.pickensplan.com/

2a.2.5.1.5 The Pickens Plan

090115 http://www.pickensplan.com/

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1842760405/bctid6806990001

http://www.pickensplan.com/?bcpid1842760405?bclid=1842745810&bctid=1653634930&page=white

Monthly Oil Imports Barrels of Oil Imported by the U.S.

379.6 million in December 2008% Imported from Foreign Countries

66.5% in December 2008Money Sent Overseas

$19.3 Billion in December 2008

http://push.pickensplan.com/stateHome.php/FL

Start a chapter:

2a.2.5.2 State of Florida Energy

Florida has “Action Team”, Energy Commission, FEO, D of Ag biofuel program, FDEP, Public Service Commission

Gov. Crist held climate change conference in Miami with Gov. Schwarzenegger

Florida has extensive biomass that could be used for thermal or electrical generationSugar cane bagasse for ethanol or chip wood for “cellulosic

methanol” Enviros fighting biofuels due to land, emissions, etc.

Solar energy in Melbourne is approximately 4.7 equivalent sun hours per day due to rain storms, cloudiness, etc. while Arizona has 6 to 7

Florida is rated “marginal” or Class 2 for wind energy, though possibly offshore Jacksonville, it is much higher at Class 3-4

PSC 10-year outlook report by a contractor 1990, 11% NG; 2005, 30%; 2014, 44% 2005, 10% nuclear; new plant in 2015? Gov. Crist running for Senator and changed interests

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2a.2.5.2 State of Florida Energy

Florida resources: biomass, solar, wind, ocean currentFlorida Atlantic Univ. researching Gulf Stream

EnergyFPSC report prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc.

of Burlington MA developing utility rules, PSC recommended, goes to FL legislature

Gov. Crist wants 20% RE by 2020, but 2041 seems more likely; still, PSC now recommends “20% by 2020”; nice motto is cheaper than analysis

Study shows 27% by 2020 best case to 6% by 2020 worst case!

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Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:44 PMTo: [email protected]: Renewable energy gets push in Florida Legislature

Renewable energy gets push in Florida Legislature The Miami Herald, Monday, January 12, 2009

"TALLAHASSEE -- Florida electric companies would have to rely on an increasingly heavy mix of wind, solar and biomass to generate their power over the next 11 years, under a proposed rule state regulators voted to send to the Legislature late Thursday.

Calling their decision ''historic,'' the Florida Public Service Commission unanimously voted to send the Legislature the proposal that calls for 20 percent of their fuel mix to come from renewable energy sources by 2020. They also agreed that consumers could be charged up to 3 percent more in order to jumpstart the market for the clean technologies

The commission's draft rule would require that 75 percent of the renewable energy fee go to finance solar and wind production and 25 percent go to finance biomass production.

The Legislature can approve or reject the recommendation before the rule takes effect.

The rule also recommends the following goals:* 7 percent of the fuel used by power companies come from renewable energy sources by 2013, 18 percent by 2019 and 20 percent by 2020;* commissioners will review the goals every three years;

* penalties for companies that fail to meet the goals;

The vote was a victory for Gov. Charlie Crist who first recommended the ''20 percent by 2020'' standard and won plaudits from the environmental and alternative energy industires. But PSC staff concluded last year that that wasn't achievable until 2041. Florida got 3.6 percent of its electricity from alternative energy as of 2007, the commission said.

The commission hired a private consulting company, Navigant, to conduct a thorough study and market analysis. Navigant concluded that Florida could reach at least 24 percent of its energy portfolio from renewable energy by 2020 with the right incentives.

The commission also recommended that the Legislature exclude nuclear energy from the 20 percent requirement, something Florida Power & Light and other large utility companies fought hard to get."http://www.miamiherald.com/news/environment/resources/story/846750.html

2a.3 Past Energy Events

US Congress battled with Senate over 2007 Energy Act Politics shifted, and changes in renewable and other energy

issues continue to be revised Individual states acting together to bypass Federal lagging

in energy and GHG action “Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being

made.”– Otto von Bismarck “But what we will do is, we'll have the negotiations

televised on C-SPAN, so that people can see who is making arguments on behalf of their constituents, and who are making arguments on behalf of the drug companies or the insurance companies.”– Pres. Obama re health care bill [didn’t happen]

Back room Washington deals protect the public from seeing laws being made – FRL

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(older than ~1 year)

2a Conclusion: Recent Events

The primary event has been soaring and plummeting energy prices, the falling dollar, and the World sinking into recession

Passage of the 2008 Energy Policy Act, etc. GM, Ford, and Chrysler closing some dealerships as they are

losing business to fuel efficient cars and trucks; sales decliningFord surviving but GM and Chrysler recovering from

bankruptcy Utilities must keep ~15% margin over increasing power

demand; build more plants Energy plants NG use competes with home heating, and cost

is rising with demand; 15% imported; needed LNG importation fought by environmentalists

Oil was at $26.01 as of 12/12/2002; $97 on 1/2/08; $147 falling to $36 on 12/18/08, $76 on 1/21/2010

China and India will soon surpass US in energy emissions as their population rises and demand increases

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Olin Engineering Complex 4.7 kW Solar PV Roof Array

070111

Questions?

Earlier slides may follow this page

2a References: Books

Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future, Second Ed. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 452 pp., 2004.

Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973.

Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4.

Crichton, Michael. State of Fear. NY: HarperCollins Publishers, Inc., 603pp., 2004.0-06-621413-0.

041231

2.a References: Websites, other

051230

www.iaea.or.at/ International Atomic Energy Agencyhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/contents.html Energy Information AgencyNPR radio, CNN news, Fox News Channel, MSNBC Newswww.mms.gov/offshore/RenewableEnergy/RenewableEnergyMain.htm__________________________awea-windnet@yahoogroups.com. Wind Energy [email protected]. Wind energy home powersite elistgeothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energywww.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon populationwww.google.com/search?q=%22renewable+energy+course%22solstice.crest.org/dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.htmlhttp://www.unc.edu/~rowlett/units/index.html -- a good units definition sitehttp://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html -- quick country guidehttp://syrianamovie.warnerbros.com/http://www.CampusClimateChallenge.com

Slide stockpile follows!

Older slides follow this one. Look at these if you have interest or time. It’s difficult to decide what to leave out of the lecture to save time!

President Obama’s Cabinet

• Sec’y of Agriculture: Thomas J. Vilsack favors biofuels (was Gov. of Iowa --- corn state)

• Sec’y of Energy: Dr. Steven Chu heads national energy labs like Nat’l Renewable Energy Lab

• Sec’y of Housing and Urban Development: Shaun Donovan: weatherization, LIHEAP

• Sec’y of Interior: Ken Salazar: resources on public lands• Sec’y of Transportation: Ray LaHood: trains, roads, aircraft• Sec’y of Treasure: Timothy Geithner: taxes and enforcement• Sec’y of Defense: Robert Gates: Remote power, “One Fuel”,

aircraft fuel• Sec’y of Commerce: Gary Locke, economics and trade• Attorney General: Eric Holder: legal aspects, taxes• Administrator, EPA: Lisa Jackson: GHG, pollution, etc.

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Energy News Headlines as of 1/2008

12/07 Congress passes 2007 Energy Act and Pres. Bush signs it. 12/07 Auto Show news of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles coming

in 2008-2009 ~12/07 E85 panned and praised. Better solution may be diesel 12/27/07 Assassination of Pakistan’s former prime minister

Benizar Bhutto causes spike in crude oil futures 12/28/07 Companies hiring likely “include wind, battery, and

solar energy firms and hydrogen” 1/2/08 Oil breaks $100/bbl; falls back during session

Nigerian violence, Mexican disruption, price up 60% in 2007 FPL continues to develop and operate the majority (40%) of US

windfarms More windfarms erected in the West and Great Plains of US Xcel Energy will add 775MW wind plant to 282MW in CO; sells to

SCE & PG&E in CA --- AWEA Canada to install 7000MW by 2013 [Renewable Energy News]

080105

Toyota Highlander

2a.4.1 Energy Fiction Book

Michael Crichton wrote “State of Fear” about tsunamis and climate change, finishing ~September 2004Conspirators, media manipulation, killings, romance,

adventure, eco-terrorists, shady orchestrators of environmental organizations, billionaire funding

Characters in the story provide footnotes as references!Scientific uncertainty is discussed; graphs presented Crichton appendix states his feelings on science & biasTwenty-page bibliographyNumber 2 on New York Times best-seller list 1/11/2005

Crichton quotes Mark Twain: “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.”

Book attacked by environmentalists and global warming aficionados

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2a.4.2 Energy Movies

“Syriana” released in December 2005Story of oil peak, intrigue, and manipulation in the

Middle East; corrupt companies and individualsStarring George Clooney plays CIA agent, and is a

Palestinian prime minister look-alikeAlexander Siddig (Dr. Bashir of “Star Trek: Deep

Space Nine”) plays an ethical good prince of Syriana who gets killed for wanting best interests for his country’s people

http://syrianamovie.warnerbros.com/ “China Syndrome” atomic meltdown starring Jane

Fonda “Cold Fusion” (it’s still fiction!)

070107