Francis X. Johnson, Stockholm Environment Institute United Nations Foundation and German NGO Forum International Conference Sustainable Bioenergy: Challenges.

Francis X. Johnson, Stockholm Environment InstituteUnited Nations Foundation and German NGO ForumInternational ConferenceSustainable Bioenergy: Challenges and OpportunitiesBonn, Germany, 12-13 October 2006Import Substitution and Export Potential for Biofuels Trade: the case of ethanol from sugarcane and sweet sorghum EUROPEAN COMMISSIONResearch Directorate-GeneralCane Resources Network for Southern Africa

Overview of Presentation

Energy-Environment-Development Driving ForcesProductive Biofuel crops: sugarcane and sweet sorghumFocus on southern Africa (SADC)Global market sharesCapacity of existing factories: reaching economies-of-scaleGeographic Information Systems Analysis potentialScenarios for future production and blendingExport potentialCARENSA: an International Network/PartnershipNorth-South-South collaboration: research and analysis, technology transfer, capacity-building, policy dialogue

Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for biofuels development and North-South-South CollaborationRural development - creation of sustainable livelihoodsEnhancing the role of women as community leadersRelieving resource pressures and stressesSocioeconomics of urbanisation and migrationEnergy security: local regional global Rural health issues - indoor airUrban health issues lead (in Africa), air qualityfuture competitiveness of agro-industriesKyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon creditsDeveloping countries looking for foreign investment through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile marketReduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification

Comparison of biofuel yields

A typology of liquid biofuels (Fulton, UNEP, 2006)

GHG Emissions Impacts of BiofuelsWell-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel

Cost Per Tonne of CO2 Reduction is Currently Lowest in Brazil Costs in IEA Countries are High(based on $30/bbl oil)Source: IEA, 2004, Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective

Shares of global sugarcane production, 2004

Chart1

0.29

0.039

0.207

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.13

0.034

Sheet1

Table 2: Land Use summary for SADC and selected countries/regions

Country/RegionTotal Land AreaForest AreaAgricultural Areas (a)Cultivated Area (b)

UNITS:Million haMillion hashare of total land areaMillion hashare of total land areaMillion hashare of total land area

Angola124.769.856%57.646%3.62.9%

Botswana56.712.422%26.046%0.40.7%

Congo226.7135.260%22.810%7.83.4%

Lesotho3.02.377%0.311.0%

Madagascar58.211.720%27.647%3.66.1%

Malawi9.42.627%4.447%2.627.5%

Mauritius0.20.156%0.152.2%

Mozambique78.430.639%48.662%4.65.8%

Namibia82.38.010%38.847%0.81.0%

South Africa121.48.97%99.682%15.712.9%

Swaziland1.71.481%0.211.2%

Tanzania88.438.844%48.154%5.15.8%

Zambia74.331.242%35.347%5.37.1%

Zimbabwe38.719.049%20.653%3.48.7%

Total SADC964.1368.338%433.245%53.45.5%

Brazil845.9543.964%263.631%66.67.9%

China932.7163.518%554.959%154.916.6%

India297.364.122%180.861%169.757.1%

United States915.9226.025%409.345%175.519.2%

EU-15313.0115.737%140.445%84.627.0%

Sources: FAOSTAT 2005; World Resources Institute 2005

Note: (a) Agricutural areas includes temporary and permanent pastures, permanent crops, and temporary crops

Note: (b) Cultivated areas includes permanent crops and temporary crops

Country/RegionTotal Land AreaForest AreaAgricultural AreasCultivated Area

UNITS:Million haMillion hashare of total land areaMillion hashare of total land areaMillion hashare of total land area

Total SADC96436838%43345%535.5%

Brazil84654464%26431%677.9%

China93316318%55559%15516.6%

India2976422%18161%17057.1%

United States91622625%40945%17619.2%

EU-1531311637%14045%8527.0%

Sheet2

Table 1: GDP and Population summary for SADC and selected countries/regions in 2003-2004

Country/RegionGDP/capita (USD)PopulationRural PopulationAgricultural Population (b)Total Land Area

UNITS:Nominal GDPGDP - PPP (a)1000sDensity (p/km2)1000sshare of total1000sshare of totalMillion ha

Angola130424571362511877664%968071%124.7

Botswana5702101691785387149%78344%56.7

Congo11163352771233617769%3260262%226.7

Lesotho6332074180259147882%69639%3.0

Madagascar25185417404301279874%1269373%58.2

Malawi152569121051291014284%921576%9.4

Mauritius483312215122160169057%12710%0.2

Mozambique320124718863241210064%1435076%78.4

Namibia2233644919872134268%92647%82.3

South Africa45871079845026371926843%578913%121.4

Swaziland2172499510776382477%34732%1.7

Tanzania30867336977422384864%2838477%88.4

Zambia4788701081215698565%730268%74.3

Zimbabwe49123091289133839465%784461%38.7

964.1

Total SADC126731422283462414369363%13073857%

Brazil33258049178470213038017%2647115%845.9

China12725642131170914180178361%85102865%932.7

India6223080106546235876382272%55659252%297.3

United States3993539496294043325818020%59442%915.9

EU-1529291269003800511218244422%145454%313.0

Sources: FAOSTAT 2005, World Bank 2005

Note: (a) PPP = Purchasing Power Parity, which reflects better differences in cost of living, whereas Nominal GDP accounts more appropriately for the value of international trade

Note: (b) Agricultural Population is those persons who earn their livelihoods from agricultural activities along with their non-working dependents

Sheet5

Low-inputsHigh-inputs

SuitableSuitabletotal-land-area

Angola1%10%124670

Malawi11%26%9408

Mozambique16%28%78409

South Africa0%1%121447

Swaziland0%0%1720

Tanzania4%13%88359

Zambia8%34%74339

Zimbabwe0%3%38685

SuitableSuitableCountryTotal landSuitable Share

Low-inputsHigh-inputs(1000 ha)Low-inputsHigh-inputs

Malawi10542418Malawi940811%26%

Mozambique1285921719Mozambique7840916%28%

South Africa01214South Africa1214470%1%

Tanzania309311222Tanzania883594%13%

Zambia565024904Zambia743398%34%

Zimbabwe771315Zimbabwe386850%3%

2273262792

Sheet5

00

00

00

00

00

00

Suitable Low-inputs

Suitable High-inputs

Land suitable for sweet sorghum production (1000 ha)

Sheet4

Table 13: Share of land area suitable for sweet sorghum in SADC countries

Low inputsHigh inputs

UnsuitableSomewhat SuitableSuitableUnsuitableSomewhat SuitableSuitable

Angola75.70%23.80%0.50%60.40%29.70%9.90%

Malawi50.20%38.60%11.20%41.30%33.00%25.70%

Mozambique42.80%40.80%16.40%25.80%46.50%27.70%

South Africa98.90%1.10%0.00%90.60%8.40%1.00%

Swaziland99.50%0.50%0.00%68.40%31.60%0.00%

Tanzania55.40%41.10%3.50%32.70%54.60%12.70%

Zambia32.60%59.80%7.60%16.50%50.00%33.50%

Zimbabwe79.40%20.40%0.20%40.40%56.20%3.40%

Source: Dalianis et al 2004

Notes: low and high resource inputs refers to fertilisers, land preparation, and other inputs

Sheet6

Sugar Cane production in 2004 in SADC and selected other countries

Area harvestedtotal productionaverage yieldShares of total production

Country1000 ha1000 tctc/hashare of SADC totalshare of world total

Malawi2021001054.60%

Mauritius7251997311.40%

South Africa326204196344.80%1.50%

Tanzania1720001184.40%

Zambia1718001064.00%

Zimbabwe45453310110.00%

SADC total69645557653.40%

Australia4483699583Congo DR0.0392.70%

Brazil537139601274Madagascar0.05429.10%

India460828160061Malawi4.60%20.70%

Thailand11397425965Mauritius11.40%5.50%

South Africa44.80%

World20822135912065Swaziland9.90%

Sources: FAOSTAT 2005Tanzania4.40%

Zambia4.00%

Zimbabwe10%Zimbabwe10.00%

Malawi5%Others1.60%

Others6%

South Africa45%

Madagascar5%

Tanzania4%

Zambia4%

Mauritius11%

Swaziland10%

Mauritius11%

Brazil29%

Pacific4%

India21%

Other Asia10%

Other SA10%

ASEAN10%

N&C America13%

SADC3%

Sheet6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Coal4

Hydroelectric3

Oil1

Ethanol152

Ethanol15

Consumer goods44

Capital goods98

Metallurgy145

Chemical220

0

0

0

0

Jobs Created per equivalent energy output (Oil = 1)

0

0

0

0

0

Cost of creating various jobs by industry type (1000 USD)

Global Scenarios in 2030 for Ethanol blending **10% gasoline + 3% diesel of IEA 2030 Projection = 276 bl **Scenario E4 exceeds this projected blending market!!

Southern African Development Community (SADC)

Potential Trade Balances (in the absence of major trade barriers) for bio-ethanol in the medium-term (2025-2030)Brazil: net exporterU.S.: net importerOther N & S America: self-sufficientChina: net importerIndia: self-sufficientSE Asia: net exporterEU: net importerWestern Africa: self-sufficientSouthern and Eastern Africa: net exporter

Chart2

151.3079664871108.94173587071627.4525094142320.5398746843130.2005051622139.2033291681329.5714472039729.7248530452

164.7395372478145.63516117341641.643531692323.3349107768139.8021264682173.7850017557332.4452365909736.0878907292

172.6438582412169.11708466551655.9582965137326.1543189595145.4955126621195.0198848758335.3440847793742.5064126801

180.9274342175196.38518675921670.3978828863328.9983117517151.4207597524218.8494698204338.2682102763748.9809027085

189.6084621022228.04994335581684.9633792261331.8671035256157.5873101821245.5908046053341.2178334943755.5118488434

198.7060119228264.82026227541699.6558834397334.7609105229164.0049909341275.5996775143344.1931767677762.0997433694

208.2400686999307.51935422411714.4765030075337.6799508706170.6840291912309.2753507935347.1944643698768.7450828638

218.2315763501357.10316276351729.4263550667340.624444598177.6350686344347.0658727586350.2219225291775.448368234

228.7024836938414.68176589221744.5065664958343.5946136528184.869186404389.4740389902353.2757794473782.2101047549

239.6757926718481.54422837571759.7182739993346.5906819182192.3979107528437.0640819325356.3562653155789.0308021076

251.1756088743559.18746121641775.0626241936349.6128752295200.2332394169490.4691778963359.4636123322795.9109744173

263.2271944951649.34973436681790.5407736935352.6614213913208.3876587355550.3998713476362.5980547206802.8511402924

275.8570238259754.04959296651806.1538891988355.7365501945216.8741635491617.6535285639365.7598287464809.8518228634

289.0928414143875.63104835551821.9031475832358.8384934338225.7062779079693.1249464382368.9491727353816.9135498223

302.96372301091016.81605559631837.7897359819361.9674849251234.8980766235777.8182575788372.1663270912824.0368534625

317.50013944171180.76545236731853.8148518821365.1237605232244.464207699872.860290099375.4115343143831.222270719

332.73402354461371.14972352261869.9797032126368.3075581393254.4199156712979.5155598473378.6850390194838.4703432086

348.69884031821592.23117558771886.2855084352371.5191177592264.7810659051099.2030945457381.9870879541845.781617271

365.42966043561848.95936090781902.7334966362374.7586814616275.56416987571233.5153136795385.3179300178853.1566440097

382.96323728582147.08188779621919.3249076197378.0264934356286.7864114821384.2392153295388.6778162801860.5959793339

401.33808771192493.27309748921936.060992381.3228298.46567443021553.3801518365392.067868.100184

Malawi

Mozambique

South Africa

Swaziland

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Other SADC

Million litres

Scenarios for Ethanol production from cane

Ethanol-cane

Scenarios for Bioenergy from Sugarcane1000 tcSET

Year:20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Additional production

Production (tc)growth1000 tc

Malawi3.89%2000200021592243233024212515261327152820293030443162328634133546368438283977413142924459429222926%

Mozambique15.12%144014401908219725292911335238584442511458876777780189811033911902137021577318158209042406427703240642262456%

South Africa0.00%215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151200%

Swaziland0.00%4237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423700%

Tanzania3.17%1721172118321890195020122076214222102280235224272504258326652750283729273020311532143316321414934%

Zambia11.25%1840184022772533281831353488388143174803534359446613735681849105101291126812536139461551517260155151367534%

Zimbabwe0.00%4356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435600%

Other SADC0.00%9646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964600%

Total-SADC4555746752479274861449378502305118152244534345476756262579425983161956643526705370102735477744181847868368683640085100%

Yield (tc/hagrowthYieldSET

Malawi0.44%105105106106107107108108109109110110111111111112112113113114114115115

Mozambique3.53%505052545557596264666871737678818487909397100100

South Africa0.59%6767676768686969697070717172727273737474757575

Swaziland0.17%97979797979797989898989898999999999999100100100100

Tanzania0.45%105105106106107107107108108109109110110111111112112113113114114115115

Zambia0.58%107107108108109109110111111112113113114115115116117117118119119120120

Zimbabwe0.15%102102102102102103103103103103103103104104104104104104105105105105105

Other SADC1.98%5151525354555657585960626364656768697172747575

Total-SADC105105106107107108108109109110110110111111112112113113114114115115

Area Harvested (1000 ha)Check

Malawi3.6%19.019.020.321.021.722.523.324.124.925.726.627.528.529.530.531.532.633.734.936.137.338.638.6

Mozambique11.8%28.828.835.939.844.249.254.760.867.675.283.693.0103.4115.0127.9142.2158.1175.8195.5217.4241.7268.8268.8

South Africa-0.6%322.5322.5318.7316.9315.0313.2311.3309.5307.7305.9304.1302.4300.6298.8297.1295.4293.6291.9290.2288.5286.8285.1285.1

Swaziland-0.2%43.843.843.743.643.543.543.443.343.243.243.143.042.942.942.842.742.742.642.542.442.442.342.3

Tanzania2.8%16.416.417.317.718.218.719.219.720.320.821.422.022.623.223.824.525.125.826.527.228.028.728.7

Zambia11.2%17.217.221.123.325.828.531.534.938.642.747.252.257.763.970.678.186.495.6105.7117.0129.4143.1143.1

Zimbabwe-0.2%42.742.742.642.642.542.442.442.342.242.242.142.042.041.941.941.841.741.741.641.641.541.441.4

Other SADC-2.0%190.3190.3182.9179.5176.0172.6169.2165.9162.7159.6156.5153.4150.4147.5144.7141.8139.1136.4133.7131.2128.6126.1126.1

Total-SADC1.8%680.8680.8682.5684.3687.0690.5695.0700.6707.3715.3724.6735.6748.2762.7779.2798.0819.4843.5870.7901.3935.7974.2974.2

Change in area harvested (ha)

Malawi0133369572274777379982785588491594697910121047108311201158119812391282

Mozambique0708638874459495355086125681175738422936510413115801287614318159221770519687218922434427070

South Africa0-3768-1851-1851-1840-1830-1819-1808-1798-1787-1777-1766-1756-1746-1736-1725-1715-1705-1695-1685-1676

Swaziland0-148-74-74-74-73-73-73-73-73-73-73-73-72-72-72-72-72-72-72-72

Tanzania0904466481494507521535549564580595611628645663680699718737757

Zambia0386822242472273430243345370040934527500755386126677674958290916910142112181240813725

Zimbabwe0-127-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-62-62-62-62-62-62-62-62-62

Other SADC0-7388-3479-3484-3415-3349-3284-3220-3158-3097-3037-2978-2920-2863-2808-2753-2700-2647-2596-2545-2496

Total-SADC01760180626613536449755516708797993781091712614144851654918827213442412527200306013436438529

Cumulative Change in area harvested (ha)Check

Malawi01333202927513498427050695896675176358550949610474114861253313616147361589517093183321961419614

Mozambique07086109741543220385258933201838829464035482464189746028618299058113377129298147003166690188583212926239996239996

South Africa0-3768-5619-7470-9310-11140-12959-14767-16564-18352-20128-21895-23651-25396-27132-28857-30573-32278-33973-35659-37335-37335

Swaziland0-148-222-296-369-443-516-589-662-735-808-881-953-1026-1098-1170-1242-1314-1386-1458-1530-1530

Tanzania09041370185023442851337239074457502156016196680774358081874394231012210840115781233512335

Zambia0386860928564112981432217668213682546029987349944053246658534346092869218783878852999747112156125880125880

Zimbabwe0-127-190-254-317-380-443-506-568-631-694-756-819-881-943-1005-1067-1129-1191-1253-1315-1315

Other SADC0-7388-10867-14351-17767-21116-24400-27621-30779-33875-36912-39889-42809-45672-48480-51233-53933-56580-59176-61721-64217-64217

Total-SADC01760356662279762142591981026517344964387454791674058189098438117265138609162735189935220536254900293429293429397825

Ethanol Production (million litres)yield (l/tc)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Check

Malawi0.87%7515116517318119019920821822924025126327628930331833334936538340190401

Mozambique0.87%751091461691962282653083574154825596497548761017118113711592184921472493902493

South Africa0.87%75162716421656167016851700171417291745176017751791180618221838185418701886190319191936901936

Swaziland0.87%7532132332632933233533834134434735035335635936236536837237537838190381

Tanzania0.87%7513014014515115816417117818519220020821722623524425426527628729890298

Zambia0.87%751391741952192462763093473894374905506186937788739801099123413841553901553

Zimbabwe0.87%7533033233533834134434735035335635936336636937237537938238538939290392

Other SADC0.87%7573073674374975676276977578278979680381081782483183884685386186890868

Total-SADC00.87%75.0353736573742383439344044416442964441460247814980520254505728604163936790723977488324832490

Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)

Malawi796481038211831984298540865287678882899991189238936094839608973598639994101251025910394

Mozambique378340584252444046374842505652805514575860136280655868487152746977998145850688829276

South Africa504751515226530353805459553956205703578658715957604461336222631464066500659566926790

Swaziland731474037480755876367716779778787960804381278212829783848471856086498739883089229015

Tanzania795080908199830784188529864387578874899191119232935494799604973298619992101251025910395

Zambia809082468370849286158741886889979128926193969532967198129955101001024710396105471070010856

Zimbabwe771178017881796280438125820882928377846285498636872588148904899590879180927493689464

Other SADC383440244137425643784504463347664903504351885337549056475809597661476324650566926884

Total-SADC519653595468558156985818594360746209635165006656682169957178737375797799803282808545

Production on new area (assume juice) - million litres

Malawi0111723293644526069788898109120133145159173188204

Mozambique02947699512516220525631638646856567881196611471358160418912226

South Africa000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000

Tanzania07111520242934404551576470788593101110119128

Zambia032517397125157192232278329386451524607699803920105212001367

Zimbabwe000000000000000000000

Other SADC000000000000000000000

Total-SADC0791261792413113924835887078441000117813821615188221882538293933983925

Ethanol Production (C mol)yield (l/tc)Million litres

Malawi0.50%918202021222324252728293032333436383941434510

Mozambique0.50%91317202327313642485664758610011513415517920723927710

South Africa0.50%919519619719819920020120220320420520620720820921021121221321421510

Swaziland0.50%938393939393939404040404041414141424242424210

Tanzania0.50%916171718191920212122232425262728293031323310

Zambia0.50%91721232629323640455157637179889911012313815417310

Zimbabwe0.50%939404040404041414141414242424242434343434410

Other SADC0.50%987888889898990909191929293939494959595969610

Total-SADC0.50%9.042343644445346447548750151653255157259562165168472176381086492510

Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)

Malawi9529659759849931002101210221031104110511061107110811091110211121123113311441155

Mozambique4524835055255465685916156406666937217507818128458799159529911031

South Africa603614620627634641648655662669677684692699707714722730738746754

Swaziland8748828888949009069129189249309379439499569629699759829889951002

Tanzania9519649739829921001101110211030104010501060107010811091110111121123113311441155

Zambia967982993100410151026103710481060107110831095110711191131114311551168118111931206

Zimbabwe92292993594194895496096697397998599299810051011101810251031103810451052

Other SADC458479491503516529542555569583598613628644660676693710728746765

Total-SADC621638649660671683695708721735749764780797815834855876899923949

Production on existing area (assume C-molasses)

Malawi181819191919191920202020202121212121222222

Mozambique131415151616171818192021222223242526272930

South Africa195198200202204207209211214216218221223225228230233235238241243

Swaziland383939393940404041414141424242424343434444

Tanzania161616161616171717171717181818181818191919

Zambia171717171718181818181919191919202020202121

Zimbabwe394040404141414142424242434343444444444545

Other SADC8791939698101103106108111114117120123126129132135139142146

Total-SADC423432438445451457464470477484491498505513520528536544552560569

Ethanol Production (B mol)yield (l/tc)

Malawi0.45%204044454750525456596164677073767983869094982298105

Mozambique0.45%20293945526069809210712314216519122025529534139445652760922609467

South Africa0.45%2043243443643844044244444644845045245445645846146346546746947147322473259

Swaziland0.45%208586868687878788888989899090919192929293932293212

Tanzania0.45%203537384041434446474951535557596163666870732272958

Zambia0.45%20374651576472809010011212514015617419521824327230434038022379715

Zimbabwe0.45%208888888989909090919192929293939494959595962295839

Other SADC0.45%2019419519619619719819920020120220320420520620720720820921021121222212202

Total-SADC0.45%20.0939967986100610281052107911081141117712181264131413711436150815891681178419022035221910395

Ethanol Yield litres/ha (assume B-molasses)

Malawi211521432162218222022221224122622282230223232344236523862408243024512473249625182541

Mozambique100510731120116512111259131013621417147315321593165717231792186419382016209621802267

South Africa134013621376139114051420143514501465148014961511152715431559157615921609162616431660

Swaziland194219581970198219952007202020322045205820712084209721102123213621492163217621902204

Tanzania211121402159217921992219223922592280230023212342236423852407242924512473249625182541

Zambia214821812204222722502274229723212345236923942419244424692495252025472573260026272654

Zimbabwe204820632076208821012113212621392152216521782191220522182231224522582272228623002313

Other SADC101810641090111611441172120012291260129013221354138714211456149115281565160316431683

Total-SADC138014171440146414881513154015671595162516561689172417601799184018841930198020332089

Production on total area, million litres (assume B-molasses)

Malawi404445475052545659616467707376798386909498

Mozambique2939455260698092107123142165191220255295341394456527609

South Africa432434436438440442444446448450452454456458461463465467469471473

Swaziland858686868787878888898989909091919292929393

Tanzania353738404143444647495153555759616366687073

Zambia3746515764728090100112125140156174195218243272304340380

Zimbabwe888888898990909091919292929393949495959596

Other SADC194195196196197198199200201202203204205206207207208209210211212

Total-SADC939967986100610281052107911081141117712181264131413711436150815891681178419022035

Production on existing area, million litres (assume B-molasses)

Malawi404141414242434343444445454546464747474848

Mozambique293132343536383941424446485052545658606365

South Africa432439444449453458463468472477482487493498503508513519524530535

Swaziland858686878788898990909191929293949495959697

Tanzania353535363636373737383838393939404041414142

Zambia373838383939404040414142424243434444454546

Zimbabwe888889899090919192939394949595969797989899

Other SADC194203207212218223228234240246252258264270277284291298305313320

Total-SADC9399609739869991013102710411056107010851101111611321148116511811198121612341252

Production on new area, million litres (assume B-molasses)

Malawi034689111315182022252730333639434650

Mozambique08121825334253668198119143171203241285336395464544

South Africa000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000

Tanzania0234568910121315161819212325272931

Zambia0813192533415060718498114132152174200228259295334

Zimbabwe000000000000000000000

Other SADC000000000000000000000

Total-SADC02133476381101125151181215254298348405470544628724834959

Sugar Production (at max)%suc1000t

Malawi12.1%241261271281292304315328340354367382397412428445462480499518538

Mozambique12.0%173229264303349402463533614706813936107812411428164418932179250828883324

South Africa11.7%251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518

Swaziland13.8%584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584

Tanzania10.0%173184190196202208215222229236243251259267276285294303312322333

Zambia12.8%23529132336040044549555161368275884493910441162129314381600178019802202

Zimbabwe12.0%525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525

Other SADC10.0%965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965

Total-SADC54135555563957315835595060806225638765696774700472637556788582578678915396911029910989

Sugar Production (B strike only)%suc

Malawi11.4%227245255265275286297309321333346360374388403419435452470488507

Mozambique11.3%163216248286329379436502578665766882101511691345154917832053236327203132

South Africa11.0%237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372

Swaziland13.0%550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550

Tanzania9.4%163173179184190196202209215222229237244252260268277285294304313

Zambia12.0%2212743053393774194665195776427147958849841094121813541507167618652075

Zimbabwe11.3%494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494

Other SADC9.4%909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909

Total-SADC5099523353115399549656055727586360166188638165986842711774287778817486229128970210352

Sugar Production (A strike only)%suc

Malawi9.5%191206214222231240249259269280290302313326338352365379394410425

Mozambique9.5%1371812082402763183664214855586437408529811129130014961722198322832628

South Africa9.3%199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990

Swaziland10.9%462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462

Tanzania7.9%136145150155159165170175181186192198205211218225232239247255263

Zambia10.1%186230256284316352391435484539600667742826918102211371264140715651741

Zimbabwe9.5%415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415

Other SADC7.9%762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762

Total-SADC427943914457453046124704480649205049519353555537574259736233652768597235766081418687

Ethanol-cane

Malawi

Mozambique

South Africa

Swaziland

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Other SADC

Million litres

Scenarios for Ethanol production from cane

Ethanol-sweet_sorghum

000000

41.0647597843501.1453654456120.5237932406220.18324212893.015272397824.2932667596

84.5790704111032.1845147213248.2369420454453.50061797836.210408578750.035649315

130.65252035721594.454841685383.4610851881700.53972495219.59345532377.2919784878

179.39905613622189.3469247141526.5306521424961.911527605913.1727794101106.1296632449

230.93714477282818.3065095208677.79333994261238.251228817416.9570795477136.6187868172

285.38994209373482.8365629347837.61060711141530.219172135920.9553987296168.8322062569

342.88546703584184.49940012031006.35818524851838.501776396825.1771370344202.845655556

403.55678218114924.91888778351184.42660889462163.812503722629.6320648815238.7378524476

467.54218073395705.78272600781372.22176430532506.892862070434.3303367607276.5906090186

534.98538016626528.84481144991570.1654577922868.513443525539.2825054508316.4889462678

606.03572275947395.92768471971778.69600430823249.474999582644.4995367448358.5212127427

680.84838328558308.9250648621998.26883698453650.609554695449.9928246997402.7792074004

759.58458407079269.80447395972229.35713833654072.781559422855.7742074275449.3583068366

842.411817701610280.60995498072472.45249389814516.889084541761.8559834483498.357597034

929.504077634911343.46488609352728.0655690554983.86505754568.2509286233549.8800097881

1021.042096985912460.57489478992996.72680988175474.678542990874.972313688604.0324639708

1117.213595778113634.23087526523278.98716881095990.336068218482.0339224077660.9260117987

1218.213536946314866.81211262153575.41885599476531.882995998589.4500703747720.6759902813

1324.244391394816160.78951758353886.61611724247100.40494573897.2356244706783.4021780247

1435.516412424117518.72897553864213.19603945397697.0292649141105.4060230173849.2289575784

Malawi

Mozambique

South Africa

Swaziland

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Other SADC

Million litres

Scenarios for ethanol production from sweet sorghum

Table-14

Scenarios for Bio-ethanol from sweet sorghum1000 tcSET

Area Harvested (1000 ha)20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Check

Malawi00132640536679921051191321451581711841982112242372502632630

Mozambique001613214826438049641125128614471607176819292090225024112572273328933054321532150

South Africa000000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000000

Tanzania0039771161551932322713093483874254645035415806196576967347737730

Zambia007114121228235342449456563670677784791898910591130120112711342141214120

Zimbabwe001234567891011121314151516171819190

Other SADC00816233139475562707886941011091171251321401481561560

Total-SADC00292584876116814601752204423362628291932113503379540874379467149635255554758390

Yield (tc/ha)growthYieldSET

Malawi2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Mozambique2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

South Africa2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Swaziland2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Tanzania2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Zambia2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Zimbabwe2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Other SADC2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Total-SADC0000000000000000000000

Additional production

Production (tc)growthM tc

Malawi00112234456678910111213141516

Mozambique0071320283644526069798898109120131142154167180193

South Africa0000000000000000000000

Swaziland0000000000000000000000

Tanzania0023579101215171921242629313437404346

Zambia003691216192327313539434853576368737985

Zimbabwe0000000000001111111111

Other SADC0001112233344556677899

Total-SADC012243751657994110126143161179198217237258280303326350

Cumulative Change in area harvested (1000ha)

Malawi013264053667992105119132145158171184198211224237250263

Mozambique016132148264380496411251286144716071768192920902250241125722733289330543215

South Africa000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000

Tanzania03977116155193232271309348387425464503541580619657696734773

Zambia071141212282353424494565636706777847918989105911301201127113421412

Zimbabwe01234567891011121314151516171819

Other SADC081623313947556270788694101109117125132140148156

Total-SADC0292584876116814601752204423362628291932113503379540874379467149635255554758395664

Ethanol Production (million litres)yield (l/tc)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Check

Malawi0.92%750418513117923128534340446853560668176084293010211117121813241436901

Mozambique0.92%750501103215942189281834834184492557066529739683099270102811134312461136341486716161175199017

South Africa0.92%75000000000000000000000900

Swaziland0.92%75000000000000000000000900

Tanzania0.92%75012124838352767883810061184137215701779199822292472272829973279357538874213904

Zambia0.92%7502204547019621238153018392164250728693249365140734517498454755990653271007697908

Zimbabwe0.92%750361013172125303439445056626875828997105900

Other SADC0.92%750245077106137169203239277316359403449498550604661721783849901

Total-SADC09101875289639765119632676008945103631185813433150911683718673206032263224764270022935331819320

Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)

Malawi031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Mozambique031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

South Africa000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000

Tanzania031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Zambia031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Zimbabwe031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Other SADC031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Total-SADC031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Table-14

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Table-15

Revised table (at top)

Table 14: Bio-ethanol production potential from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (million litres)

YEAR20052010201520202025Average Annual Increase

SADC total (cane, existing areas)93910131085116512521.45%

SADC total (cane, new areas)031184418823925

SADC total (all cane)93913241929304751778.91%

SADC total (sweet sorghum)05119118582060331819

SADC total (all)939644313787236503699620.16%

SADC demand & projections (energy basis)2032475431561558195

assumed percentage bio-ethanol:1%10%15%20%25%

Remaining allocation for export market736396894721749528801

relative to demand in other regions (volume basis)

China1%4%9%15%21%

Japan1%7%16%29%48%

United States0%1%2%3%4%

EU150%2%6%10%16%

Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005

Table 14: Bio-ethanol production potential from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (million litres)

YEAR20052010201520202025Average Annual Increase

Malawi1691781892002111.08%168.5780639231178.3382400738188.6635018368199.5865660142211.1420436147

Mozambique1481571661751851.08%148.0142505948156.5838421834165.6495880253175.2402139988185.3861091259

South Africa156616561752185419611.08%1565.61024203881656.25448951661752.14677343421853.59093973041960.9084261341

Swaziland3523723944174411.08%351.8323079668372.2023681118393.7517950771416.5488707473440.6658303281

Tanzania1621711811912021.08%161.6668160735171.0268512161180.9288049788191.4040528623202.4857869172

Zambia1471551641741841.08%146.7626921079155.2598221258164.2489110843173.7584419653183.8185468318

Zimbabwe3523723944174411.08%

Other-SADC6476857257668111.08%

Total SADC354237473964419344361.08%

SADC Demand (10%)10251090114012801350

Remaining allocation25172657282429133086

as share of other demands

Brazil8%7%8%8%8%

China7%6%5%4%3%

India6%6%4%5%5%

United States0%0%0%0%0%

EU4%5%6%6%7%

Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005

1990200120022010201520202025

Africa2.12.62.73.74.34.64.92.7

Brazil1.52.22.22.52.83.23.72.3

China2.34.95.29.210.712.314.24.5

India1.22.22.23.13.74.24.93.5

Japan5.35.45.35.35.45.45.30.0

United States a/17.019.619.722.524.225.827.31.4

Western Europe12.514.013.814.114.314.414.90.3

Africa4.0%3.1%1.4%1.3%2.6%

Brazil1.6%2.3%2.7%2.9%2.3%

China7.4%3.1%2.8%2.9%4.5%

India4.4%3.6%2.6%3.1%3.5%

Japan0.0%0.4%0.0%-0.4%0.0%

United States a/1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%1.4%

Western Europe0.3%0.3%0.1%0.7%0.3%

Africa3.74.34.64.9

Brazil2.52.83.23.7

China9.210.712.314.2

India3.13.74.24.9

Japan5.35.45.45.3

United States a/22.524.225.827.3

Western Europe14.114.314.414.9

159.0

1000 b/dayMl

2002200220052010201520202025

SADC217.8855138796126441423017327201372154222946

Brazil279.1454493151161991699418408206172356227244

China876.2997534247508526298489969104638120285138865

India176.9098630137102661167514466172661959922866

Japan1027.9095890411596505965059650607756077559650

United States8847.8328767123513443539679586420630727672428711522

EU2824.9697260274163934165261167498169874171062177001

SLCR-analysis

Revised table (at top)

Table 15: Area required for bio-ethanol production from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (1000 ha)

Area under caneArea under sweet sorghumTotal area for cane and sweet sorghumrelative to total agricultural arearelative to currently cultivated area

Country/Year20102025Average Annual Change2010202520102025currently cultivated

Malawi23394%66263893027%12%2.59Angola3.59

Mozambique5526912%804321585834847%76%4.58Botswana0.38

South Africa311285-1%003112850%2%15.712Congo7.8

Swaziland4342-0%0043423%22%0.192Lesotho0.334

Tanzania19293%1937732138022%16%5.1Madagascar3.55

Zambia3214311%353141238515564%29%5.289Malawi2.59

Zimbabwe4241-0%51947610%2%3.35Mauritius0.106

Other SADC169126-2%391562082820%2%16.58Mozambique4.58

Namibia0.82

SADC total6959742%14605839215568132%13%53.393South Africa15.712

Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005Swaziland0.192

Tanzania5.1

Zambia5.289

Zimbabwe3.35

4.44Angola57.59

48.58Botswana25.98

99.64Congo22.8

1.392Lesotho2.334

48.1Madagascar27.55

35.289Malawi4.44

20.55Mauritius0.113

175.187Mozambique48.58

Namibia38.82

433.178South Africa99.64

Swaziland1.392

Tanzania48.1

Zambia35.289

Zimbabwe20.55

indices

km2

MalawiMozambiqueTanzaniaZambiaTotal

Total country (including water)1184808015909426907526122615372140569685111048890337311732Area of all four countries

Step in Analyses

5.2.2 Seasonal Land Cover Regions74224906446393546096585742490646435469658Area identified by Miombo Database as potentially suitable

5.2.3 Protected Areas59544602140292433480338595460240324338033Area after protected areas are removed

5.2.4 Steep Slopes58044529739892426579355580452939824267933Area after steep slopes (>16%) are removed

5.2.5 Global Land Cover31613773426421725960796330403228818526502Area after Global Land Cover categories are removed

5.2.6 Existing Sugarcane Farms31423770526421725960748322402928818526491Areas after currently cultivated areas are removed

5.2.7 Areas Smaller than 500ha25593469917741485053882255346917414855383After areas less than 500ha are removed

5.2.8 Unsuitable Soils20602338213421177738561

Remaining (1000 ha)2062338.2134.21177.73856.1

Total excluded3010227390221057145204470265

0

Total excluded883785276889216336074082145107

sweet-sorghum-area

available for cane (1000 ha)share of max:1

Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)SLCRcurrenttotalSLCR/availcurrent/availtotal/availadjust to max 5%, 10% or min 1%, 0.5%additionalYIELD (2000-2004)2025avgtc alloca

MalawiMalawi18502061922511.1%1.0%12.2%225206105115115236906%

MozambiqueMozambique440002338.22923675.3%0.1%5.4%236723381410010023382056%

South Africa839283233230.4%0.4%323067757500%

Swaziland120044443.7%3.7%4409710010000%

TanzaniaTanzania43000134.2161510.3%0.0%0.4%151134105115115154334%

ZambiaZambia300001177.71711953.9%0.1%4.0%1195117810712012014132434%

Zimbabwe1720043430.2%0.2%43010210510500%

Other SADC800071901900.2%0.2%190051757500%

414267100%

Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)Populationagricshare of Other-SADC to be assignednew areas - factoriesavail*poplitres/ha

Malawi1.8512105921510%22044031172140.9314011515147112

Mozambique44188631435030%54806311080.78772364063739629

South Africa83.9284502657890%860686064861371.51612419025734726

Swaziland1.2107734720%1897555001948.43346311574503

Tanzania4336977283840%8711871112212128.941567593722634651

Zambia3010812730215%40031402192179.49567167421499171

Zimbabwe17.212891784420%36531352062.49674868531016603

Other SADC158.60790595575075%1826791391211063.61339927488860518

379.785228346130738100%400854008549652

18267

Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)PopulationAgric

Angola54136259,680

Botswana25.61785783

Congo155277132,602

Lesotho21802696

Madagascar241740412,693

Malawi1.85121059,215

Mauritius0.0071221127

Mozambique441886314,350

Namibia381987926

South Africa83.928450265,789

Swaziland1.21077347

Tanzania433697728,384

Zambia30108127,302

Zimbabwe17.2128917,844

379.785228346130738

SADC-yields+ha

Low-inputsHigh-inputs

SuitableSuitabletotal-land-area

Angola1%10%124670

Malawi11%26%9408

Mozambique16%28%78409

South Africa0%1%121447

Swaziland0%0%1720

Tanzania4%13%88359

Zambia8%34%74339

Zimbabwe0%3%38685

Low-inputsHigh-inputs0.5

SuitableSuitablepotentialLow-inputsHigh-inputs

Malawi11%26%9408105424180.252631209

Mozambique16%28%7840912859217190.25321510860

South Africa0%1%121447012140607

Swaziland0%0%17200000

Tanzania4%13%883593093112220.257735611

Zambia8%34%743395650249040.25141212452

Zimbabwe0%3%386857713150.2519658

Other SADC1%10%124670623123420.251566171

2335675134

Corrected-Moz

Area Harv200020012002200320042005(est)5-Year Avg.1000 ha

Malawi1900018000180002000020000190001919

Mozambique2700027000300003000030000288002929

South Africa321913322000321234325956321571322535323323

Swaziland3650041000465004830748000440614444

Tanzania1500016000165001700017000163001616

Zambia1500018500185001700017000172001717

Zimbabwe4300042000400004500044000428004343

Other-SADC185881186977192999192810193190190371190190

Total-SADC663294671477683733696073690761681068681

Cane Production1000 tc

Malawi20000001900000190000021000002100000200000020002000

Mozambique3972764000004000004000004000003994553991440

South Africa2387616221156536230125542041893219094760215117892151221512

Swaziland38846004000000430000045000004500000423692042374237

Tanzania13550001500000175000020000002000000172100017211721

Zambia16000002000000200000018000001800000184000018401840

Zimbabwe42275004700000420000045330004121000435630043564356

Other-SADC93271309920750936830098046039807005964555896469646

Total-SADC46667668455772864693085445556535438227654571102245711

Yieldtc/ha

Malawi105106106105105105105

Mozambique15151313131450

South Africa74667263596767

Swaziland106989293949797

Tanzania9094106118118105105

Zambia107108108106106107107

Zimbabwe9811210510194102102

Other-SADC50534951515151

Total-SADC706869656367

Gareth-FAO

Sugar Production (F.O. Licht's)1999200020012002

Malawi (2)209216265259258257241197300207300215700260600Malawi

Mozambique50396717121220510845817390353500035000Mozambique

South Africa24382813229027512297222525182536000272900025040002626000South Africa

Swaziland (1)580529555605652584534183528241500680583014Swaziland

Tanzania124151168193227233173

Zambia (2)208243243239241252235197000189000243000232000Zambia

Zimbabwe (2)573545580501425420525583254585000638500554000Zimbabwe

Other-SADC776837685702738748

Mauritius (1)604684553569607603373300569000645597520887Mauritius

Others172153132133131144

Total-SADC495853734853542150505131

Sugar Yield (with C-strike)Corrected (estimated)inverseB-molA-mol

Malawi10.5%11.4%13.9%12.3%12.3%12.1%12.1%11.4%9.5%

Mozambique12.6%9.8%16.8%42.8%53.0%27.0%12.0%11.3%9.5%

South Africa10.2%13.3%10.0%13.5%12.0%11.7%11.7%11.0%9.3%

Swaziland14.9%13.2%12.9%13.4%14.5%13.8%13.8%13.0%10.9%

Tanzania9.2%10.1%9.6%9.7%11.4%10.0%10.0%9.4%7.9%

Zambia13.0%12.2%12.2%13.3%13.4%12.8%12.8%12.0%10.1%

Zimbabwe13.6%11.6%13.8%11.1%10.3%12.0%12.0%11.3%9.5%

Other-SADC8.3%8.4%7.3%7.2%7.5%7.8%10.0%9.4%7.9%

Mauritius11.8%11.8%11.3%10.9%11.7%11.5%11.5%

Others6.7%6.0%5.1%4.7%4.6%4.9%4.9%

Total-SADC10.6%11.8%10.3%11.9%11.5%11.2%11.2%8.909

SugarEthanol

kg/tcsugar/tcchangechange

C-mol115.511.6%8.8311.6%

B-mol108.810.9%94.2%12.716.8%

A-mol91.39.1%79.0%22.930.2%

juice75.8100.0%

Area HarvHa

Country200020012002200320042005Year

Angola950095009500950095009500

Congo360003650043000430004300043000

Madagascar673256778068235686906869068690

Malawi190001800018000200002000020000

Mauritius730567319772264716207200072000

Mozambique270002700030000300003000030000

South Africa321913322000321234325956321571312000

Swaziland365004100046500483074800048000

Tanzania150001600016500170001700017000

Zambia150001850018500170001700017000

Zimbabwe430004200040000450004400043000

Production

Country200020012002200320042005Year

Angola360000360000360000360000360000360000

Congo166900015600001911000178620017873001800000

Madagascar218863022084502223400245970524597052459705

Malawi200000019000001900000210000021000002100000

Mauritius510950057923004873900519869852000005200000

Mozambique397276400000400000400000400000400000

South Africa238761622115653623012554204189321909476021725100

Swaziland388460040000004300000450000045000004500000

Tanzania135500015000001750000200000020000002000000

Zambia160000020000002000000180000018000001800000

Zimbabwe422750047000004200000453300041210003290000

Yield

Country200020012002200320042005Year

Angola378947378947378947378947378947378947

Congo463611427397444419415395415651418605

Madagascar325084325826325845358088358088358088

Malawi105263210555561055556105000010500001050000

Mauritius699395791330674458725872722222722222

Mozambique147139148148133333133333133333133333

South Africa741696657035716380626432593796696317

Swaziland1064274975610924731931542937500937500

Tanzania9033339375001060606117647111764711176471

Zambia106666710810811081081105882410588241058824

Zimbabwe983140111904810500001007333936591765116

Land suitability for high input levels: Sweet Sorghum production in Africa Source: FAO

Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and ZambiaSource: UKwZN 2005, South Africa

Scenarios for SADC ethanol supply and demand

Chart4

939.284687280400

1013.1389144771311.35117835295118.8640894184

1085.2600587362843.772238746811858.2805446521

1164.50266180671882.382396985620603.0305287397

1251.79385437433924.800602286131819.1056729265

cane, existing areas

cane, new areas

SADC total (all cane)

sweet sorghum

Ethanol production in SADC from existing cane, new cane, and sweet sorghum

Ethanol-cane

Scenarios for Bioenergy from Sugarcane1000 tcSET

Year:20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Additional production

Production (tc)growth1000 tc

Malawi3.89%2000200021592243233024212515261327152820293030443162328634133546368438283977413142924459429222926%

Mozambique15.12%144014401908219725292911335238584442511458876777780189811033911902137021577318158209042406427703240642262456%

South Africa0.00%215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151200%

Swaziland0.00%4237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423700%

Tanzania3.17%1721172118321890195020122076214222102280235224272504258326652750283729273020311532143316321414934%

Zambia11.25%1840184022772533281831353488388143174803534359446613735681849105101291126812536139461551517260155151367534%

Zimbabwe0.00%4356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435600%

Other SADC0.00%9646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964600%

Total-SADC4555746752479274861449378502305118152244534345476756262579425983161956643526705370102735477744181847868368683640085100%

Yield (tc/hagrowthYieldSET

Malawi0.44%105105106106107107108108109109110110111111111112112113113114114115115

Mozambique3.53%505052545557596264666871737678818487909397100100

South Africa0.59%6767676768686969697070717172727273737474757575

Swaziland0.17%97979797979797989898989898999999999999100100100100

Tanzania0.45%105105106106107107107108108109109110110111111112112113113114114115115

Zambia0.58%107107108108109109110111111112113113114115115116117117118119119120120

Zimbabwe0.15%102102102102102103103103103103103103104104104104104104105105105105105

Other SADC1.98%5151525354555657585960626364656768697172747575

Total-SADC105105106107107108108109109110110110111111112112113113114114115115

Area Harvested (1000 ha)Check

Malawi3.6%19.019.020.321.021.722.523.324.124.925.726.627.528.529.530.531.532.633.734.936.137.338.638.6

Mozambique11.8%28.828.835.939.844.249.254.760.867.675.283.693.0103.4115.0127.9142.2158.1175.8195.5217.4241.7268.8268.8

South Africa-0.6%322.5322.5318.7316.9315.0313.2311.3309.5307.7305.9304.1302.4300.6298.8297.1295.4293.6291.9290.2288.5286.8285.1285.1

Swaziland-0.2%43.843.843.743.643.543.543.443.343.243.243.143.042.942.942.842.742.742.642.542.442.442.342.3

Tanzania2.8%16.416.417.317.718.218.719.219.720.320.821.422.022.623.223.824.525.125.826.527.228.028.728.7

Zambia11.2%17.217.221.123.325.828.531.534.938.642.747.252.257.763.970.678.186.495.6105.7117.0129.4143.1143.1

Zimbabwe-0.2%42.742.742.642.642.542.442.442.342.242.242.142.042.041.941.941.841.741.741.641.641.541.441.4

Other SADC-2.0%190.3190.3182.9179.5176.0172.6169.2165.9162.7159.6156.5153.4150.4147.5144.7141.8139.1136.4133.7131.2128.6126.1126.1

Total-SADC1.8%680.8680.8682.5684.3687.0690.5695.0700.6707.3715.3724.6735.6748.2762.7779.2798.0819.4843.5870.7901.3935.7974.2974.2

Change in area harvested (ha)

Malawi0133369572274777379982785588491594697910121047108311201158119812391282

Mozambique0708638874459495355086125681175738422936510413115801287614318159221770519687218922434427070

South Africa0-3768-1851-1851-1840-1830-1819-1808-1798-1787-1777-1766-1756-1746-1736-1725-1715-1705-1695-1685-1676

Swaziland0-148-74-74-74-73-73-73-73-73-73-73-73-72-72-72-72-72-72-72-72

Tanzania0904466481494507521535549564580595611628645663680699718737757

Zambia0386822242472273430243345370040934527500755386126677674958290916910142112181240813725

Zimbabwe0-127-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-62-62-62-62-62-62-62-62-62

Other SADC0-7388-3479-3484-3415-3349-3284-3220-3158-3097-3037-2978-2920-2863-2808-2753-2700-2647-2596-2545-2496

Total-SADC01760180626613536449755516708797993781091712614144851654918827213442412527200306013436438529

Cumulative Change in area harvested (ha)Check

Malawi01333202927513498427050695896675176358550949610474114861253313616147361589517093183321961419614

Mozambique07086109741543220385258933201838829464035482464189746028618299058113377129298147003166690188583212926239996239996

South Africa0-3768-5619-7470-9310-11140-12959-14767-16564-18352-20128-21895-23651-25396-27132-28857-30573-32278-33973-35659-37335-37335

Swaziland0-148-222-296-369-443-516-589-662-735-808-881-953-1026-1098-1170-1242-1314-1386-1458-1530-1530

Tanzania09041370185023442851337239074457502156016196680774358081874394231012210840115781233512335

Zambia0386860928564112981432217668213682546029987349944053246658534346092869218783878852999747112156125880125880

Zimbabwe0-127-190-254-317-380-443-506-568-631-694-756-819-881-943-1005-1067-1129-1191-1253-1315-1315

Other SADC0-7388-10867-14351-17767-21116-24400-27621-30779-33875-36912-39889-42809-45672-48480-51233-53933-56580-59176-61721-64217-64217

Total-SADC01760356662279762142591981026517344964387454791674058189098438117265138609162735189935220536254900293429293429397825

Ethanol Production (million litres)yield (l/tc)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Check

Malawi0.87%7515116517318119019920821822924025126327628930331833334936538340190401

Mozambique0.87%751091461691962282653083574154825596497548761017118113711592184921472493902493

South Africa0.87%75162716421656167016851700171417291745176017751791180618221838185418701886190319191936901936

Swaziland0.87%7532132332632933233533834134434735035335635936236536837237537838190381

Tanzania0.87%7513014014515115816417117818519220020821722623524425426527628729890298

Zambia0.87%751391741952192462763093473894374905506186937788739801099123413841553901553

Zimbabwe0.87%7533033233533834134434735035335635936336636937237537938238538939290392

Other SADC0.87%7573073674374975676276977578278979680381081782483183884685386186890868

Total-SADC00.87%75.0353736573742383439344044416442964441460247814980520254505728604163936790723977488324832490

Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)

Malawi796481038211831984298540865287678882899991189238936094839608973598639994101251025910394

Mozambique378340584252444046374842505652805514575860136280655868487152746977998145850688829276

South Africa504751515226530353805459553956205703578658715957604461336222631464066500659566926790

Swaziland731474037480755876367716779778787960804381278212829783848471856086498739883089229015

Tanzania795080908199830784188529864387578874899191119232935494799604973298619992101251025910395

Zambia809082468370849286158741886889979128926193969532967198129955101001024710396105471070010856

Zimbabwe771178017881796280438125820882928377846285498636872588148904899590879180927493689464

Other SADC383440244137425643784504463347664903504351885337549056475809597661476324650566926884

Total-SADC519653595468558156985818594360746209635165006656682169957178737375797799803282808545

Production on new area (assume juice) - million litres

Malawi0111723293644526069788898109120133145159173188204

Mozambique02947699512516220525631638646856567881196611471358160418912226

South Africa000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000

Tanzania07111520242934404551576470788593101110119128

Zambia032517397125157192232278329386451524607699803920105212001367

Zimbabwe000000000000000000000

Other SADC000000000000000000000

Total-SADC0791261792413113924835887078441000117813821615188221882538293933983925

Ethanol Production (C mol)yield (l/tc)Million litres

Malawi0.50%918202021222324252728293032333436383941434510

Mozambique0.50%91317202327313642485664758610011513415517920723927710

South Africa0.50%919519619719819920020120220320420520620720820921021121221321421510

Swaziland0.50%938393939393939404040404041414141424242424210

Tanzania0.50%916171718191920212122232425262728293031323310

Zambia0.50%91721232629323640455157637179889911012313815417310

Zimbabwe0.50%939404040404041414141414242424242434343434410

Other SADC0.50%987888889898990909191929293939494959595969610

Total-SADC0.50%9.042343644445346447548750151653255157259562165168472176381086492510

Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)

Malawi9529659759849931002101210221031104110511061107110811091110211121123113311441155

Mozambique4524835055255465685916156406666937217507818128458799159529911031

South Africa603614620627634641648655662669677684692699707714722730738746754

Swaziland8748828888949009069129189249309379439499569629699759829889951002

Tanzania9519649739829921001101110211030104010501060107010811091110111121123113311441155

Zambia967982993100410151026103710481060107110831095110711191131114311551168118111931206

Zimbabwe92292993594194895496096697397998599299810051011101810251031103810451052

Other SADC458479491503516529542555569583598613628644660676693710728746765

Total-SADC621638649660671683695708721735749764780797815834855876899923949

Production on existing area (assume C-molasses)

Malawi181819191919191920202020202121212121222222

Mozambique131415151616171818192021222223242526272930

South Africa195198200202204207209211214216218221223225228230233235238241243

Swaziland383939393940404041414141424242424343434444

Tanzania161616161616171717171717181818181818191919

Zambia171717171718181818181919191919202020202121

Zimbabwe394040404141414142424242434343444444444545

Other SADC8791939698101103106108111114117120123126129132135139142146

Total-SADC423432438445451457464470477484491498505513520528536544552560569

Ethanol Production (B mol)yield (l/tc)

Malawi0.45%204044454750525456596164677073767983869094982298105

Mozambique0.45%20293945526069809210712314216519122025529534139445652760922609467

South Africa0.45%2043243443643844044244444644845045245445645846146346546746947147322473259

Swaziland0.45%208586868687878788888989899090919192929293932293212

Tanzania0.45%203537384041434446474951535557596163666870732272958

Zambia0.45%20374651576472809010011212514015617419521824327230434038022379715

Zimbabwe0.45%208888888989909090919192929293939494959595962295839

Other SADC0.45%2019419519619619719819920020120220320420520620720720820921021121222212202

Total-SADC0.45%20.0939967986100610281052107911081141117712181264131413711436150815891681178419022035221910395

Ethanol Yield litres/ha (assume B-molasses)

Malawi211521432162218222022221224122622282230223232344236523862408243024512473249625182541

Mozambique100510731120116512111259131013621417147315321593165717231792186419382016209621802267

South Africa134013621376139114051420143514501465148014961511152715431559157615921609162616431660

Swaziland194219581970198219952007202020322045205820712084209721102123213621492163217621902204

Tanzania211121402159217921992219223922592280230023212342236423852407242924512473249625182541

Zambia214821812204222722502274229723212345236923942419244424692495252025472573260026272654

Zimbabwe204820632076208821012113212621392152216521782191220522182231224522582272228623002313

Other SADC101810641090111611441172120012291260129013221354138714211456149115281565160316431683

Total-SADC138014171440146414881513154015671595162516561689172417601799184018841930198020332089

Production on total area, million litres (assume B-molasses)

Malawi404445475052545659616467707376798386909498

Mozambique2939455260698092107123142165191220255295341394456527609

South Africa432434436438440442444446448450452454456458461463465467469471473

Swaziland858686868787878888898989909091919292929393

Tanzania353738404143444647495153555759616366687073

Zambia3746515764728090100112125140156174195218243272304340380

Zimbabwe888888898990909091919292929393949495959596

Other SADC194195196196197198199200201202203204205206207207208209210211212

Total-SADC939967986100610281052107911081141117712181264131413711436150815891681178419022035

Production on existing area, million litres (assume B-molasses)

Malawi404141414242434343444445454546464747474848

Mozambique293132343536383941424446485052545658606365

South Africa432439444449453458463468472477482487493498503508513519524530535

Swaziland858686878788898990909191929293949495959697

Tanzania353535363636373737383838393939404041414142

Zambia373838383939404040414142424243434444454546

Zimbabwe888889899090919192939394949595969797989899

Other SADC194203207212218223228234240246252258264270277284291298305313320

Total-SADC9399609739869991013102710411056107010851101111611321148116511811198121612341252

Production on new area, million litres (assume B-molasses)

Malawi034689111315182022252730333639434650

Mozambique08121825334253668198119143171203241285336395464544

South Africa000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000

Tanzania0234568910121315161819212325272931

Zambia0813192533415060718498114132152174200228259295334

Zimbabwe000000000000000000000

Other SADC000000000000000000000

Total-SADC02133476381101125151181215254298348405470544628724834959

Sugar Production (at max)%suc1000t

Malawi12.1%241261271281292304315328340354367382397412428445462480499518538

Mozambique12.0%173229264303349402463533614706813936107812411428164418932179250828883324

South Africa11.7%251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518

Swaziland13.8%584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584

Tanzania10.0%173184190196202208215222229236243251259267276285294303312322333

Zambia12.8%23529132336040044549555161368275884493910441162129314381600178019802202

Zimbabwe12.0%525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525

Other SADC10.0%965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965

Total-SADC54135555563957315835595060806225638765696774700472637556788582578678915396911029910989

Sugar Production (B strike only)%suc

Malawi11.4%227245255265275286297309321333346360374388403419435452470488507

Mozambique11.3%163216248286329379436502578665766882101511691345154917832053236327203132

South Africa11.0%237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372

Swaziland13.0%550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550

Tanzania9.4%163173179184190196202209215222229237244252260268277285294304313

Zambia12.0%2212743053393774194665195776427147958849841094121813541507167618652075

Zimbabwe11.3%494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494

Other SADC9.4%909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909

Total-SADC5099523353115399549656055727586360166188638165986842711774287778817486229128970210352

Sugar Production (A strike only)%suc

Malawi9.5%191206214222231240249259269280290302313326338352365379394410425

Mozambique9.5%1371812082402763183664214855586437408529811129130014961722198322832628

South Africa9.3%199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990

Swaziland10.9%462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462

Tanzania7.9%136145150155159165170175181186192198205211218225232239247255263

Zambia10.1%186230256284316352391435484539600667742826918102211371264140715651741

Zimbabwe9.5%415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415

Other SADC7.9%762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762

Total-SADC427943914457453046124704480649205049519353555537574259736233652768597235766081418687

Ethanol-cane

151.3079664871108.94173587071627.4525094142320.5398746843130.2005051622139.2033291681329.5714472039729.7248530452

164.7395372478145.63516117341641.643531692323.3349107768139.8021264682173.7850017557332.4452365909736.0878907292

172.6438582412169.11708466551655.9582965137326.1543189595145.4955126621195.0198848758335.3440847793742.5064126801

180.9274342175196.38518675921670.3978828863328.9983117517151.4207597524218.8494698204338.2682102763748.9809027085

189.6084621022228.04994335581684.9633792261331.8671035256157.5873101821245.5908046053341.2178334943755.5118488434

198.7060119228264.82026227541699.6558834397334.7609105229164.0049909341275.5996775143344.1931767677762.0997433694

208.2400686999307.51935422411714.4765030075337.6799508706170.6840291912309.2753507935347.1944643698768.7450828638

218.2315763501357.10316276351729.4263550667340.624444598177.6350686344347.0658727586350.2219225291775.448368234

228.7024836938414.68176589221744.5065664958343.5946136528184.869186404389.4740389902353.2757794473782.2101047549

239.6757926718481.54422837571759.7182739993346.5906819182192.3979107528437.0640819325356.3562653155789.0308021076

251.1756088743559.18746121641775.0626241936349.6128752295200.2332394169490.4691778963359.4636123322795.9109744173

263.2271944951649.34973436681790.5407736935352.6614213913208.3876587355550.3998713476362.5980547206802.8511402924

275.8570238259754.04959296651806.1538891988355.7365501945216.8741635491617.6535285639365.7598287464809.8518228634

289.0928414143875.63104835551821.9031475832358.8384934338225.7062779079693.1249464382368.9491727353816.9135498223

302.96372301091016.81605559631837.7897359819361.9674849251234.8980766235777.8182575788372.1663270912824.0368534625

317.50013944171180.76545236731853.8148518821365.1237605232244.464207699872.860290099375.4115343143831.222270719

332.73402354461371.14972352261869.9797032126368.3075581393254.4199156712979.5155598473378.6850390194838.4703432086

348.69884031821592.23117558771886.2855084352371.5191177592264.7810659051099.2030945457381.9870879541845.781617271

365.42966043561848.95936090781902.7334966362374.7586814616275.56416987571233.5153136795385.3179300178853.1566440097

382.96323728582147.08188779621919.3249076197378.0264934356286.7864114821384.2392153295388.6778162801860.5959793339

401.33808771192493.27309748921936.060992381.3228298.46567443021553.3801518365392.067868.100184

Malawi

Mozambique

South Africa

Swaziland

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Other SADC

Million litres

Scenarios for Ethanol production from cane

Ethanol-sweet_sorghum

000000

41.0647597843501.1453654456120.5237932406220.18324212893.015272397824.2932667596

84.5790704111032.1845147213248.2369420454453.50061797836.210408578750.035649315

130.65252035721594.454841685383.4610851881700.53972495219.59345532377.2919784878

179.39905613622189.3469247141526.5306521424961.911527605913.1727794101106.1296632449

230.93714477282818.3065095208677.79333994261238.251228817416.9570795477136.6187868172

285.38994209373482.8365629347837.61060711141530.219172135920.9553987296168.8322062569

342.88546703584184.49940012031006.35818524851838.501776396825.1771370344202.845655556

403.55678218114924.91888778351184.42660889462163.812503722629.6320648815238.7378524476

467.54218073395705.78272600781372.22176430532506.892862070434.3303367607276.5906090186

534.98538016626528.84481144991570.1654577922868.513443525539.2825054508316.4889462678

606.03572275947395.92768471971778.69600430823249.474999582644.4995367448358.5212127427

680.84838328558308.9250648621998.26883698453650.609554695449.9928246997402.7792074004

759.58458407079269.80447395972229.35713833654072.781559422855.7742074275449.3583068366

842.411817701610280.60995498072472.45249389814516.889084541761.8559834483498.357597034

929.504077634911343.46488609352728.0655690554983.86505754568.2509286233549.8800097881

1021.042096985912460.57489478992996.72680988175474.678542990874.972313688604.0324639708

1117.213595778113634.23087526523278.98716881095990.336068218482.0339224077660.9260117987

1218.213536946314866.81211262153575.41885599476531.882995998589.4500703747720.6759902813

1324.244391394816160.78951758353886.61611724247100.40494573897.2356244706783.4021780247

1435.516412424117518.72897553864213.19603945397697.0292649141105.4060230173849.2289575784

Malawi

Mozambique

South Africa

Swaziland

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Other SADC

Million litres

Scenarios for ethanol production from sweet sorghum

Table-14

Scenarios for Bio-ethanol from sweet sorghum1000 tcSET

Area Harvested (1000 ha)20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Check

Malawi00132640536679921051191321451581711841982112242372502632630

Mozambique001613214826438049641125128614471607176819292090225024112572273328933054321532150

South Africa000000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000000

Tanzania0039771161551932322713093483874254645035415806196576967347737730

Zambia007114121228235342449456563670677784791898910591130120112711342141214120

Zimbabwe001234567891011121314151516171819190

Other SADC00816233139475562707886941011091171251321401481561560

Total-SADC00292584876116814601752204423362628291932113503379540874379467149635255554758390

Yield (tc/ha)growthYieldSET

Malawi2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Mozambique2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

South Africa2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Swaziland2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Tanzania2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Zambia2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Zimbabwe2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Other SADC2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060

Total-SADC0000000000000000000000

Additional production

Production (tc)growthM tc

Malawi00112234456678910111213141516

Mozambique0071320283644526069798898109120131142154167180193

South Africa0000000000000000000000

Swaziland0000000000000000000000

Tanzania0023579101215171921242629313437404346

Zambia003691216192327313539434853576368737985

Zimbabwe0000000000001111111111

Other SADC0001112233344556677899

Total-SADC012243751657994110126143161179198217237258280303326350

Cumulative Change in area harvested (1000ha)

Malawi013264053667992105119132145158171184198211224237250263

Mozambique016132148264380496411251286144716071768192920902250241125722733289330543215

South Africa000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000

Tanzania03977116155193232271309348387425464503541580619657696734773

Zambia071141212282353424494565636706777847918989105911301201127113421412

Zimbabwe01234567891011121314151516171819

Other SADC081623313947556270788694101109117125132140148156

Total-SADC0292584876116814601752204423362628291932113503379540874379467149635255554758395664

Ethanol Production (million litres)yield (l/tc)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Check

Malawi0.92%750418513117923128534340446853560668176084293010211117121813241436901

Mozambique0.92%750501103215942189281834834184492557066529739683099270102811134312461136341486716161175199017

South Africa0.92%75000000000000000000000900

Swaziland0.92%75000000000000000000000900

Tanzania0.92%75012124838352767883810061184137215701779199822292472272829973279357538874213904

Zambia0.92%7502204547019621238153018392164250728693249365140734517498454755990653271007697908

Zimbabwe0.92%750361013172125303439445056626875828997105900

Other SADC0.92%750245077106137169203239277316359403449498550604661721783849901

Total-SADC09101875289639765119632676008945103631185813433150911683718673206032263224764270022935331819320

Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)

Malawi031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Mozambique031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

South Africa000000000000000000000

Swaziland000000000000000000000

Tanzania031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Zambia031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Zimbabwe031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Other SADC031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Total-SADC031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449

Table-14

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Table-15

Revised table (at top)

Table 14: Bio-ethanol production potential from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (million litres)

YEAR20052010201520202025Average Annual Increase

cane, existing areas93910131085116512521.45%

cane, new areas031184418823925

SADC total (all cane)93913241929304751778.91%

sweet sorghum05119118582060331819

Scenarios for ethanol production in SADC939644313787236503699620.16%

SADC petrol demand - projections (energy basis)203247543156155819520.30%

assumed % ethanol:1%10%15%20%25%

Remaining allocation for export market73639689472174952880120.12%

relative to demand in other regions (volume basis)

China1%4%9%15%21%

Japan1%7%16%29%48%

United States0%1%2%3%4%

EU150%2%6%10%16%

Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005

Table 14: Bio-ethanol production potential from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (million litres)

YEAR20052010201520202025Average Annual Increase

Malawi1691781892002111.08%168.5780639231178.3382400738188.6635018368199.5865660142211.1420436147

Mozambique1481571661751851.08%148.0142505948156.5838421834165.6495880253175.2402139988185.3861091259

South Africa156616561752185419611.08%1565.61024203881656.25448951661752.14677343421853.59093973041960.9084261341

Swaziland3523723944174411.08%351.8323079668372.2023681118393.7517950771416.5488707473440.6658303281

Tanzania1621711811912021.08%161.6668160735171.0268512161180.9288049788191.4040528623202.4857869172

Zambia1471551641741841.08%146.7626921079155.2598221258164.2489110843173.7584419653183.8185468318

Zimbabwe3523723944174411.08%

Other-SADC6476857257668111.08%

Total SADC354237473964419344361.08%

SADC Demand (10%)10251090114012801350

Remaining allocation25172657282429133086

as share of other demands

Brazil8%7%8%8%8%

China7%6%5%4%3%

India6%6%4%5%5%

United States0%0%0%0%0%

EU4%5%6%6%7%

Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005

1990200120022010201520202025

Africa2.12.62.73.74.34.64.92.7

Brazil1.52.22.22.52.83.23.72.3

China2.34.95.29.210.712.314.24.5

India1.22.22.23.13.74.24.93.5

Japan5.35.45.35.35.45.45.30.0

United States a/17.019.619.722.524.225.827.31.4

Western Europe12.514.013.814.114.314.414.90.3

Africa4.0%3.1%1.4%1.3%2.6%

Brazil1.6%2.3%2.7%2.9%2.3%

China7.4%3.1%2.8%2.9%4.5%

India4.4%3.6%2.6%3.1%3.5%

Japan0.0%0.4%0.0%-0.4%0.0%

United States a/1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%1.4%

Western Europe0.3%0.3%0.1%0.7%0.3%

Africa3.74.34.64.9

Brazil2.52.83.23.7

China9.210.712.314.2

India3.13.74.24.9

Japan5.35.45.45.3

United States a/22.524.225.827.3

Western Europe14.114.314.414.9

159.0

1000 b/dayMl

2002200220052010201520202025

SADC217.8855138796126441423017327201372154222946

Brazil279.1454493151161991699418408206172356227244

China876.2997534247508526298489969104638120285138865

India176.9098630137102661167514466172661959922866

Japan1027.9095890411596505965059650607756077559650

United States8847.8328767123513443539679586420630727672428711522

EU2824.9697260274163934165261167498169874171062177001

Table-15

cane, existing areas

cane, new areas

SADC total (all cane)

sweet sorghum

Ethanol production in SADC from existing cane, new cane, and sweet sorghum

SLCR-analysis

Revised table (at top)

Table 15: Area required for bio-ethanol production from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (1000 ha)

Area under caneArea under sweet sorghumTotal area for cane and sweet sorghumrelative to total agricultural arearelative to currently cultivated area

Country/Year20102025Average Annual Change2010202520102025currently cultivated

Malawi23394%66263893027%12%2.59Angola3.59

Mozambique5526912%804321585834847%76%4.58Botswana0.38

South Africa311285-1%003112850%2%15.712Congo7.8

Swaziland4342-0%0043423%22%0.192Lesotho0.334

Tanzania19293%1937732138022%16%5.1Madagascar3.55

Zambia3214311%353141238515564%29%5.289Malawi2.59

Zimbabwe4241-0%51947610%2%3.35Mauritius0.106

Other SADC169126-2%391562082820%2%16.58Mozambique4.58

Namibia0.82

SADC total6959742%14605839215568132%13%53.393South Africa15.712

Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005Swaziland0.192

Tanzania5.1

Zambia5.289

Zimbabwe3.35

4.44Angola57.59

48.58Botswana25.98

99.64Congo22.8

1.392Lesotho2.334

48.1Madagascar27.55

35.289Malawi4.44

20.55Mauritius0.113

175.187Mozambique48.58

Namibia38.82

433.178South Africa99.64

Swaziland1.392

Tanzania48.1

Zambia35.289

Zimbabwe20.55

indices

km2

MalawiMozambiqueTanzaniaZambiaTotal

Total country (including water)1184808015909426907526122615372140569685111048890337311732Area of all four countries

Step in Analyses

5.2.2 Seasonal Land Cover Regions74224906446393546096585742490646435469658Area identified by Miombo Database as potentially suitable

5.2.3 Protected Areas59544602140292433480338595460240324338033Area after protected areas are removed

5.2.4 Steep Slopes58044529739892426579355580452939824267933Area after steep slopes (>16%) are removed

5.2.5 Global Land Cover31613773426421725960796330403228818526502Area after Global Land Cover categories are removed

5.2.6 Existing Sugarcane Farms31423770526421725960748322402928818526491Areas after currently cultivated areas are removed

5.2.7 Areas Smaller than 500ha25593469917741485053882255346917414855383After areas less than 500ha are removed

5.2.8 Unsuitable Soils20602338213421177738561

Remaining (1000 ha)2062338.2134.21177.73856.1

Total excluded3010227390221057145204470265

0

Total excluded883785276889216336074082145107

sweet-sorghum-area

available for cane (1000 ha)share of max:1

Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)SLCRcurrenttotalSLCR/availcurrent/availtotal/availadjust to max 5%, 10% or min 1%, 0.5%additionalYIELD (2000-2004)2025avgtc alloca

MalawiMalawi18502061922511.1%1.0%12.2%225206105115115236906%

MozambiqueMozambique440002338.22923675.3%0.1%5.4%236723381410010023382056%

South Africa839283233230.4%0.4%323067757500%

Swaziland120044443.7%3.7%4409710010000%

TanzaniaTanzania43000134.2161510.3%0.0%0.4%151134105115115154334%

ZambiaZambia300001177.71711953.9%0.1%4.0%1195117810712012014132434%

Zimbabwe1720043430.2%0.2%43010210510500%

Other SADC800071901900.2%0.2%190051757500%

414267100%

Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)Populationagricshare of Other-SADC to be assignednew areas - factoriesavail*poplitres/ha

Malawi1.8512105921510%22044031172140.9314011515147112

Mozambique44188631435030%54806311080.78772364063739629

South Africa83.9284502657890%860686064861371.51612419025734726

Swaziland1.2107734720%1897555001948.43346311574503

Tanzania4336977283840%8711871112212128.941567593722634651

Zambia3010812730215%40031402192179.49567167421499171

Zimbabwe17.212891784420%36531352062.49674868531016603

Other SADC158.60790595575075%1826791391211063.61339927488860518

379.785228346130738100%400854008549652

18267

Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)PopulationAgric

Angola54136259,680

Botswana25.61785783

Congo155277132,602

Lesotho21802696

Madagascar241740412,693

Malawi1.85121059,215

Mauritius0.0071221127

Mozambique441886314,350

Namibia381987926

South Africa83.928450265,789

Swaziland1.21077347

Tanzania433697728,384

Zambia30108127,302

Zimbabwe17.2128917,844

379.785228346130738

SADC-yields+ha

Low-inputsHigh-inputs

SuitableSuitabletotal-land-area

Angola1%10%124670

Malawi11%26%9408

Mozambique16%28%78409

South Africa0%1%121447

Swaziland0%0%1720

Tanzania4%13%88359

Zambia8%34%74339

Zimbabwe0%3%38685

Low-inputsHigh-inputs0.5

SuitableSuitablepotentialLow-inputsHigh-inputs

Malawi11%26%9408105424180.252631209

Mozambique16%28%7840912859217190.25321510860

South Africa0%1%121447012140607

Swaziland0%0%17200000

Tanzania4%13%883593093112220.257735611

Zambia8%34%743395650249040.25141212452

Zimbabwe0%3%386857713150.2519658

Other SADC1%10%124670623123420.251566171

2335675134

Corrected-Moz

Area Harv200020012002200320042005(est)5-Year Avg.1000 ha

Malawi1900018000180002000020000190001919

Mozambique2700027000300003000030000288002929

South Africa321913322000321234325956321571322535323323

Swaziland3650041000465004830748000440614444

Tanzania1500016000165001700017000163001616

Zambia1500018500185001700017000172001717

Zimbabwe4300042000400004500044000428004343

Other-SADC185881186977192999192810193190190371190190

Total-SADC663294671477683733696073690761681068681

Cane Production1000 tc

Malawi20000001900000190000021000002100000200000020002000

Mozambique3972764000004000004000004000003994553991440

South Africa2387616221156536230125542041893219094760215117892151221512

Swaziland38846004000000430000045000004500000423692042374237

Tanzania13550001500000175000020000002000000172100017211721

Zambia16000002000000200000018000001800000184000018401840

Zimbabwe42275004700000420000045330004121000435630043564356

Other-SADC93271309920750936830098046039807005964555896469646

Total-SADC46667668455772864693085445556535438227654571102245711

Yieldtc/ha

Malawi105106106105105105105

Mozambique15151313131450

South Africa74667263596767

Swaziland106989293949797

Tanzania9094106118118105105

Zambia107108108106106107107

Zimbabwe9811210510194102102

Other-SADC50534951515151

Total-SADC706869656367

Gareth-FAO

Sugar Production (F.O. Licht's)1999200020012002

Malawi (2)209216265259258257241197300207300215700260600Malawi

Mozambique50396717121220510845817390353500035000Mozambique

South Africa24382813229027512297222525182536000272900025040002626000South Africa

Swaziland (1)580529555605652584534183528241500680583014Swaziland

Tanzania124151168193227233173

Zambia (2)208243243239241252235197000189000243000232000Zambia

Zimbabwe (2)573545580501425420525583254585000638500554000Zimbabwe

Other-SADC776837685702738748

Mauritius (1)604684553569607603373300569000645597520887Mauritius

Others172153132133131144

Total-SADC495853734853542150505131

Sugar Yield (with C-strike)Corrected (estimated)inverseB-molA-mol

Malawi10.5%11.4%13.9%12.3%12.3%12.1%12.1%11.4%9.5%

Mozambique12.6%9.8%16.8%42.8%53.0%27.0%12.0%11.3%9.5%

South Africa10.2%13.3%10.0%13.5%12.0%11.7%11.7%11.0%9.3%

Swaziland14.9%13.2%12.9%13.4%14.5%13.8%13.8%13.0%10.9%

Tanzania9.2%10.1%9.6%9.7%11.4%10.0%10.0%9.4%7.9%

Zambia13.0%12.2%12.2%13.3%13.4%12.8%12.8%12.0%10.1%

Zimbabwe13.6%11.6%13.8%11.1%10.3%12.0%12.0%11.3%9.5%

Other-SADC8.3%8.4%7.3%7.2%7.5%7.8%10.0%9.4%7.9%

Mauritius11.8%11.8%11.3%10.9%11.7%11.5%11.5%

Others6.7%6.0%5.1%4.7%4.6%4.9%4.9%

Total-SADC10.6%11.8%10.3%11.9%11.5%11.2%11.2%8.909

SugarEthanol

kg/tcsugar/tcchangechange

C-mol115.511.6%8.8311.6%

B-mol108.810.9%94.2%12.716.8%

A-mol91.39.1%79.0%22.930.2%

juice75.8100.0%

Area HarvHa

Country200020012002200320042005Year

Angola950095009500950095009500

Congo360003650043000430004300043000

Madagascar673256778068235686906869068690

Malawi190001800018000200002000020000

Mauritius730567319772264716207200072000

Mozambique270002700030000300003000030000

South Africa321913322000321234325956321571312000

Swaziland365004100046500483074800048000

Tanzania150001600016500170001700017000

Zambia150001850018500170001700017000

Zimbabwe430004200040000450004400043000

Production

Country200020012002200320042005Year

Angola360000360000360000360000360000360000

Congo166900015600001911000178620017873001800000

Madagascar218863022084502223400245970524597052459705

Malawi200000019000001900000210000021000002100000

Mauritius510950057923004873900519869852000005200000

Mozambique397276400000400000400000400000400000

South Africa238761622115653623012554204189321909476021725100

Swaziland388460040000004300000450000045000004500000

Tanzania135500015000001750000200000020000002000000

Zambia160000020000002000000180000018000001800000

Zimbabwe422750047000004200000453300041210003290000

Yield

Country200020012002200320042005Year

Angola378947378947378947378947378947378947

Congo463611427397444419415395415651418605

Madagascar325084325826325845358088358088358088

Malawi105263210555561055556105000010500001050000

Mauritius699395791330674458725872722222722222

Mozambique147139148148133333133333133333133333

South Africa741696657035716380626432593796696317

Swaziland1064274975610924731931542937500937500

Tanzania9033339375001060606117647111764711176471

Zambia106666710810811081081105882410588241058824

Zimbabwe983140111904810500001007333936591765116

Chart6

203.2824204894736.0022667911

2475.27552800783968.0786542406

4315.0073393659472.3055027702

6154.739150722117495.17643681

8195.168977863728800.5311517232

SADC demand

export market

Scenarios for internal SADC and export market demand

Ethanol-cane

Scenarios for Bioenergy from Sugarcane1000 tcSET

Year:20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Additional production

Production (tc)growth1000 tc

Malawi3.89%2000200021592243233024212515261327152820293030443162328634133546368438283977413142924459429222926%

Mozambique15.12%144014401908219725292911335238584442511458876777780189811033911902137021577318158209042406427703240642262456%

South Africa0.00%215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151200%

Swaziland0.00%4237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423700%

Tanzania3.17%1721172118321890195020122076214222102280235224272504258326652750283729273020311532143316321414934%

Zambia11.25%1840184022772533281831353488388143174803534359446613735681849105101291126812536139461551517260155151367534%

Zimbabwe0.00%4356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435600%

Other SADC0.00%9646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964600%

Total-SADC4555746752479274861449378502305118152244534345476756262579425983161956643526705370102735477744181847868368683640085100%

Yield (tc/hagrowthYieldSET

Malawi0.44%105105106106107107108108109109110110111111111112112113113114114115115

Mozambique3.53%505052545557596264666871737678818487909397100100

South Africa0.59%6767676768686969697070717172727273737474757575

Swaz