“Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade” Briefing Organized by the Australia Post Canberra, Australia August 11, 2015 Dr. Larry Smarr Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Harry E. Gruber Professor, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD http://lsmarr.calit2.net
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“Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade” Briefing Organized by the Australia Post Canberra, Australia August 11, 2015 Dr. Larry Smarr Director, California.
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“Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade”
Briefing Organized by the Australia Post
Canberra, Australia
August 11, 2015
Dr. Larry Smarr
Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology
Harry E. Gruber Professor,
Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering
Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
http://lsmarr.calit2.net
If You Are Planning On a Ten Year HorizonIt Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade…
• Distributed Software Systems are Driving Disintermediation
• Networked Virtual Reality
• Climate Change and Adaptive Infrastructure
• Brain-Inspired Computing
Distributed Software Systems are Driving Disintermediation
Software Frameworks Are Emergingto Disrupt Prior Physical-Based Industries
Airbnb’s Market Capis Over Twice That of Hyatt
The company was launched in 2008, and has a listing of around 1.4 million various houses, apartments, rooms, and exotic locations to rent. Since then, more than 35 million travellers have availed its service. The company’s operations span around 34,000 cities
Next Stage in Uber Move to Driverless Cars
Traffic Control for Drone Air Delivery is Under Development by NASA, Amazon, & Google
Networked Virtual Reality
Over Fifty Years Ago, Asimov Described a World of Remote Viewing
A policeman from Earth, where the population all lives underground in close quarters, is called in to investigate a murder on a distant world. This world is populated by very few humans, rarely if ever, coming into physical proximity of each other. Instead the people "View" each other with trimensional “holographic” images.
1956
Caterpillar / NCSA: Distributed Virtual Reality for Global-Scale Collaborative Prototyping
Real Time Linked Virtual Reality and Audio-Video Between NCSA, Peoria, Houston, and Germany
New Ways to Occupy the Harbor With Adaptive “Soft” Infrastructures
Brain-Inspired Computing
Reverse Engineering of the Brain:Large Scale Microscopy of Mammal Brains Reveals Complex Connectivity
NeuronCell Bodies
Neuronal DendriticOverlap Region
Source: Rat Cerebellum Image, Mark Ellisman, UCSD
Using Nanotechnology to Read Out the Living BrainIs Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative
www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative
The March to the Exascale Supercomputer:As Fast as One Billion Smartphones
The Exascale Power Conundrum:Why We Have to Turn to Brain-Inspired Computers
• Straightforward Extrapolation Results in a Real Time Human Brain Scale Simulation at 1–10 Exaflop/s with 4 PB of Memory
• A Digital Computer with this Performance Might be Available in 2022–2024 with a Power Consumption of >20–30 MW
• The Human Brain Runs on 20 W
• Our Brain is a Million Times More Power Efficient!
Horst Simon, Deputy Director, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Realtime Simulation of Human Brain Possible Within the Next Ten Years With Exascale Supercomputer
Horst Simon, Deputy Director, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s
National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center
Fastest Supercomputer
Trend LineTianhe-2
Massive Public Private Partnership to Accelerate Brain-Inspired Computers
Jan/Feb 2014
Over $100 Million
Brain-Inspired ProcessorsAre The Start of the non-von Neumann Architecture Era
“On the drawing board are collections of 64, 256, 1024, and 4096 chips.
‘It’s only limited by money, not imagination,’ Modha says.”
Source: Dr. Dharmendra ModhaFounding Director, IBM Cognitive Computing Group
Contextual Robots With Neuromorphic Processors That Can See and Learn Will Tie Into the Planetary Computer
April 2014
Cognitive ComputingIs Beginning to Assist Medical Professionals
Massive Amounts of Data Combined With Planetary-Scale Computing Leads to Deep Learning
April 2013
A New Generation of Human Body SensorsWill Provide Continuous Readouts
Startup MC10 Working With UIUCUC San Diego
A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades
Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body
and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes
that could lead to disease, cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches could provide
continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease
and making health care affordable for everyone.
ESSAYAn Evolution Toward a Programmable UniverseBy LARRY SMARRPublished: December 5, 2011
The Defining Issue in IT for the Coming Decades
May 5, 2015August 25, 2015
This Next Decade’s Computing TransitionWill Not Be Just About Technology
"Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well-argued book." —Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society
If our own extinction is a likely, or even
possible, outcome of our technological
development, shouldn't we proceed with great
caution? – Bill Joy
Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. – Steven Hawking