FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Science Highlights Bill Kuo UCAR COSMIC NCAR ESSL/MMM Division.

FORMOSAT-3/COSMICScience Highlights

Bill KuoUCAR COSMIC

NCAR ESSL/MMM Division

ECMWF Operational implementation of GPSRO on Dec 12, 2006

Neutral in the troposphere, but some improvement in the stratospheric temperaturescores. Obvious improvement in time series for operational ECMWF model.

Dec 12, 2006 Operational implementation represented a quite conservative use of data. No measurements assimilated below 4 km, no rising occultations.

Nov 6, 2007 Operational assimilation of rising and setting occultations down to surface

↑

Sean Healy, ECMWF

Typhoon Kalmaegi (2008)

July 13-20, 2008

NOGPS

GPS

EnsemblEnsemble meane mean

ObservedObserved

Ensemble Forecasts of Tracks (initialized at 00UTC 17 July)

NoGPS GPS

Left turning of the Typhoon is predicted with COSMIC GPSRO data.

EnsemEnsemble ble

meanmean

ObservObserveded45-km WRF/DART system

NOGPS

GPS

EnsemblEnsemble meane mean

ObservedObserved

Ensemble Forecasts of accumulated Rainfall (00UTC 17-18 July)

NoGPS GPS

EnsemEnsemble ble

meanmean

ObservObserveded

Precipitation is enhanced with GPSRO data.

Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

Prediction of Sinlaku (2008) by ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System with the use of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC data

10 Sep 2008

13 Sep 200812 Sep 2008

11 Sep 2008

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC data during Sinlaku

An example of strong inversion layer on top of ABL

Radiosonde data23 January 200215.97S, 5.70W

RO observables modeledfrom the radiosonde data.The “step-like” structures inbending angle and refractivity

PBL study by Seregey Sokolovskiy (COSMIC) and Don Lenschow (MMM)

Distribution of heights of strong inversion layers(BAL > 1E-2 rad) over North America

Winter:- fewer strong inversion layers over continent, more over the ocean southwards- shallower ABL over continent- deeper ABL over the ocean than in Summer

Summer:most sharp inversion layers(pronounced ABL top)over the ocean and plains;less over mountains

Ionospheric Climatology from COSMIC Data

Lei, J., S. Syndergaard, A. G. Burns, S. C. Solomon, W. Wang, Z. Zeng, R. G. Roble, Q. Wu, Y.-H. Kuo, J. M. Holt, S.-R. Zhang, D. L. Hysell, F. S. Rodrigues, and C. H. Lin, Comparison of COSMIC ionospheric measurements with ground-based observations and model predictions: preliminary results, J. Geophys. Res., 112, A07308, doi:10.1029/2006JA012240, 2007.

Neutral Winds derived from COSMIC Data

Luan, X., and S. C. Solomon, Meridional winds derived from COSMIC radio occultation measurements in winter, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2008.

Extremely cold tropical tropopause temperatures

Locations of COSMIC soundingswith cold point temps <185 K

Current work is exploringthe association with thincirrus clouds observedby CALIPSO

(these clouds may also incorporate nitric acid)

From Bill Randel (ACD)

a b c

COSMIC data to calibrate AMSU on NOAA satellites

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Follow-On Mission:Why do we need it?

Meteorology and Weather Prediction: 2,000 soundings per day is good, but not great. It is far from

saturation. Currently, less than 1% of Infrared and microwave satellite

soundings are being used for weather prediction (due to cloud contamination and biases). COSMIC can significantly improve its utilization.

Significant positive impacts of COSMIC have been obtained by operational centers. They now depend on it.

COSMIC is shown to improve the prediction of typhoon genesis, track and intensity forecasts.

Data Distribution During Sinlaku (2008)

24-h 12-h

6-h3-h

Most global models perform assimilation with 6-h windows, regional models with 3-h windows.

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Follow-On Mission:Why do we need it?

Climate: We need long data records for climate change detection and

monitoring. Five year is too short for climate studies. Climate scientists are now interested in examining data

record from GPS radio occultation from 1995, but only small data records are available from GPS/MET, and there is a long gap between 1997 to 2001 with no GPS RO data.

We don’t want to develop another gap after COSMIC. A constellation is needed to provide uniform coverage for

diurnal cycle, which is important for climate study. To provide uniform diurnal coverage: CHAMP: 6 months, COSMIC: 16 days. COSMIC-II: a day?

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Follow-On Mission:Why do we need it?

Ionospheric Research and Space Weather: COSMIC data have been shown to be valuable for

evaluating both empirical and ionospheric models. COSMIC data have shed new lights on interesting

ionospheric features over the tropics (e.g., plasma caves). The research applications of COSMIC to ionosphere is just

at its beginning stage. More new results will be forthcoming in the next few years.

We need to shorten the data latency to make it more useful for space weather applications. Currently, COSMIC average latency is about 60 min. Target for COSMIC-II is about 15 min.

Thank You !

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Workshop

1-3 October 2008, Taipei, Taiwan

http://www.formosat3.ncu.edu.tw/

A Student Program funded by NSF/IOSE and NSC/NSPO