Forex Market Insight 15 August 2011

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Market Insights 15 August 2011

Markets start new week on an upbeat note; risk currencies open around 0.2% higherFriday’s session also positive as markets conclude roller-coaster week

USD/CHF gains continue as market wary of further action from Swiss National BankAUD still trapped under 1.0400; move above this level seen as bullishCrude continues higher on Friday, but gold falls to find support at $1720CPI in focus this week with key numbers due from UK, Eurozone, Canada and US.

Headlines

AUD/USD

XAU/USD

Resistance

1.0400

Support

1.0300Market Sentiment

Bullish (on a break of 

1.0400)

The Aussie is looking ready to break above 1.0400 as it formed a bullish ascending triangle at lower levels. Once we see thisbreak above 1.0400, the market is likely to focus on long positions. Until we see a break above 1.0400, however, the marketis likely to be more wary.

Gold continued to settle lower on Friday, with the market finding support at 1720. Traders will now be looking for longsaround 1720 in the expectation of a continuation of last week’s move higher.

Resistance

1820

Support

1720Market Sentiment

Bullish

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 EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

No real change on the USD/JPY with the pair still defined by resistance up at 77.00/20 and support below 76.50. The Japanesgovernment made comments over the weekend that suggested that further intervention was possible and this means the movlower might be tough work as sellers remain cautious.

The GBP/USD saw a strong reaction higher in Friday’s trade, but the market will remain focused don the downside until wesee a clear break above 1.6300. On Friday, the pair was unable to hold above this level and this sets a continuation of themove lower. A clear move above 1.6300 will be seen as bullish.

The Euro remains trapped in the broad trading range between 1.4150 and 1.4400. On Friday, markets bought the pullback tand we’ve seen the pair gain around 100 pips from the lows. Traders will continue to focus on playing the range with sellertaking advantage of any move to 1.4400 and buyers looking for a move back to 1.4150.

Resistance

1.4400

Support

1.4150Market Sentiment

Rangebound

Resistance

1.6300

Support

1.6110Market Sentiment

Bearish

Resistance

77.00/20

Support

76.50Market Sentiment

Bearish

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 SILVER 

USD/CHF

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY is clearly in a trading bracket between 125.00 on the upside and 123.40 on the downside. Traders will be lookinto play the range with a focus on taking new shorts.

The USD/CHF’s strong move higher has continued as traders fret over the next move by the SNB. The Swiss governmenseems focused on reversing the USD/CHF’s decline and this has injected a certain amount uncertainty in the market. Tha

said, the trend is strong down, and traders will be looking to focus on the downside.

Silver made a push to the upper side of the trading range near 39.00 and traders will be using the 39.00/50 level in order totake new shorts in the expectation of move back to 37.00 initially. Silver’s fate this week will be determined by the health othe US dollar and any USD weakness should be positive for silver.

Resistance

39.50

Support

37.00Market Sentiment

Rangebound

Resistance

78.50

Support

76.00Market Sentiment

Bearish

Resistance

125.00

Support

123.40Market Sentiment

Bearish

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 AUD/JPY

OIL

Economic Calendar

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F/Cast Last F/Cast Last

»  JPY: Prelim GDP -0.6% -0.9% »  USD: Empire State 0.8 -3.8%

»  AUD: New Motor Vehicles 1.3% »  USD: TIC Long-Term Purchases 30.4b 23.6b

»  CHF: PPI -0.5% -0.5% »  USD: NAHB Housing Market 15 15

»  » »  » » 

Crude’s break above 83.00 has been bullish for oil, but we’ve recently run into resistance at 88.00. Any pullback to 84.00/50

will be seen as a buying opportunity in expectation of another move back to 88.00.

The Aussie-yen, just like the AUD/USD, is forming a bullish pattern under the all-important 80.00. Traders will be waiting foa break above 80.00 in order to take new longs, while any move back to support at 79.00 will also be seen as buyable.

Resistance

88.00Support

84.00/50Market Sentiment

Bullish

Resistance

80.00Support

79.00Market Sentiment

Bullish (on a break of 80.00)