FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes Janyl Jumadinova Ph.D. in Information Science and Technology Advisor: Dr. Raj Dasgupta University of Nebraska, Omaha April 6, 2010 Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting
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FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market forForecasting Event Outcomes
Janyl Jumadinova
Ph.D. in Information Science and TechnologyAdvisor: Dr. Raj Dasgupta
University of Nebraska, Omaha
April 6, 2010
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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What is a Prediction Market?
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Deficits with existing Models of Prediction Markets
How do prices change
– when new information arrives very frequently (or very rarely)– when information has little impact (presidential candidate
tours the North East) vs. high impact (candidate announcesrunning mate)
– when information has little reliability (Twitter) vs. highreliability (press release)
– when only a few people get the information vs. everybody getsit
No risk-behavior was modeled
– Do traders take financial risks while buying/selling or are theyconservative?
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Multi-Agent Prediction Market
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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What we learned...
When information arrives more frequently
– Prices fluctuate less– Utilities increase (15− 40%)
When information has more impact
– Prices tend to increase
When information is more reliable
– Prices are more stable– Utilities are higher (30− 45%)
When information is easily available
– Prices are driven down– Utilities are higher (25− 37%)
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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What we learned...
When information arrives more frequently
– Prices fluctuate less– Utilities increase (15− 40%)
When information has more impact
– Prices tend to increase
When information is more reliable
– Prices are more stable– Utilities are higher (30− 45%)
When information is easily available
– Prices are driven down– Utilities are higher (25− 37%)
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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What we learned...
When information arrives more frequently
– Prices fluctuate less– Utilities increase (15− 40%)
When information has more impact
– Prices tend to increase
When information is more reliable
– Prices are more stable– Utilities are higher (30− 45%)
When information is easily available
– Prices are driven down– Utilities are higher (25− 37%)
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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What we learned...
When information arrives more frequently
– Prices fluctuate less– Utilities increase (15− 40%)
When information has more impact
– Prices tend to increase
When information is more reliable
– Prices are more stable– Utilities are higher (30− 45%)
When information is easily available
– Prices are driven down– Utilities are higher (25− 37%)
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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As Compared to Others
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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As Compared to Others
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Benefits of our research
Information aggregation is pervasive...Internet-based social networks, sensor networks, daily lives ofpeople, etc.
Our results give a better understanding about how theinformation aggregation process responds to changes ininformation-related parameters
Gives prior indication about which direction security prices willgoCan be used to take some of the guesswork out ofbuying/selling securities
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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Benefits of our research
Information aggregation is pervasive...Internet-based social networks, sensor networks, daily lives ofpeople, etc.
Our results give a better understanding about how theinformation aggregation process responds to changes ininformation-related parameters
Gives prior indication about which direction security prices willgoCan be used to take some of the guesswork out ofbuying/selling securities
Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes
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