-
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Editors:
Gerardo Mery
Pia Katila
Glenn Galloway
René I. Alfaro
Markku Kanninen
Max Lobovikov
Jari Varjo
The contents of this book do not necessarily present the views
of the organizations supporting this work.
The electronic version of this book is available at
http://www.iufro.org/wfse.
Publisher:
International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO)
International Union of Forest Research OrganizationsUnion
Internationale des Instituts de Recherches
ForestièresInternationaler Verband Forstlicher
ForschungsanstaltenUnión Internacional de Organizaciones de
Investigación Forestal
IUFRO World Series Vol. 25
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Recommended catalogue entry: Gerardo Mery, Pia Katila, Glenn
Galloway, René I. Alfaro, Markku Kanninen, Max Lobovikov and Jari
Varjo. (eds.). 2010.Forests and Society – Responding to Global
Drivers of Change.IUFRO World Series Volume 25. Vienna. 509 p.
ISBN 978-3-901347-93-1
ISSN 1016-3263
Published by:International Union of Forest Research
Organizations (IUFRO)
Available from:IUFRO WFSE/MetlaP. O. Box 18FI-01301 Vantaa,
Finland
Tel: +358 10 211 2153Fax: +358 10 211 2202
E-mail: [email protected] site: www.iufro.org/wfse
Language editor: Maggie M. PaquetLay out: Seppo Oja
Cover photographs:Markku Kanninen, Erkki Oksanen and Dasos
Capital Oy
Printed in Finland by Tammerprint Oy, Tampere, 2010
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3
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Preface
This book is the product of World Forests, Society and
Environment (WFSE), a Special Project of the International Union of
Forest Research Organisa-tion (IUFRO). WFSE is a global, open,
non-profit network of scientists and experts steered by ten
in-ternational research organisations and coordinated by the
Finnish Forest Research Institute (METLA). The network focuses on
the forest, society, and envi-ronment interface. On the basis of
existing scientific knowledge, it looks for innovative solutions to
sup-port and advance the formulation and implementa-tion of
forest-related policies that promote sustain-able development and
well-being.
This book is the second volume published by WFSE in the IUFRO
World Series. The first one, For-ests in the Global Balance:
Changing Paradigms, was launched five years ago (August 2005) in
the XXII IUFRO World Congress in Brisbane, Australia.
The present book, Forests and Society – Re-sponding to Global
Drivers of Change, will be launched in the XXIII IUFRO World
Congress in Seoul, Republic of Korea, August 2010.
In addition, the project has published three re-gional policy
briefs in the last four years:
◆ Making European Forests Work for People and Nature (2007)
◆ Making Latin American Forests Work for People and Nature
(2008)
◆ Making Sub-Saharan African Forests Work for People and Nature
(2009)
A new policy brief volume will be published in the second half
of 2010: Making Asian Forests Work for People and Nature.
In 2007, the Steering Committee of WFSE iden-tified globally
relevant forestry-related topics to be addressed by the project.
The essential idea for this book originated from an acknowledgement
of the changing social and natural circumstances, and the related
drivers of change affecting forests, forestry, human society, and
the environment, globally and lo-cally. We are convinced that
forests and forest-related
matters can no longer be addressed in isolation from the
surrounding society and natural environment; in-stead, these need
to be seen as an integral part of interrelated social and natural
systems.
The Steering Committee of WFSE, also at the 2007 Annual Meeting,
nominated the editors and identified recognised scientists who were
invited to become Convening Lead Authors (CLAs) of the chapters
that addressed the selected themes of the book. They invited Lead
and Contributing Authors (LAs and CAs, respectively) in order to
form collabo-rative research teams for conducting critical analyses
in each of the themes. The work was based on the cooperation of the
author teams for each chapter, as well as between these teams
across the whole book. CLAs and LAs were also responsible for
composing the manuscript for their chapter and for its timely
submission to the editors.
Two editorial workshops were organised for facilitating the
discussions of editors and CLAs to collectively debate on the
contents of the chapters and on the main focus of the publication.
The first workshop was arranged in September 2008 in Hel-sinki,
Finland; the second one was held in Ham-burg, Germany, in 2009. In
addition, editors had two meetings for polishing the publication:
the first one arranged in Buenos Aires in October 2009, and the
second one in Rome in January 2010. All chapters were evaluated
firstly by the editors – on two oc-casions – and finally in a peer
reviewing process conducted by anonymous external reviewers.
As editors of this book, we would like to express our
satisfaction on the successful completion of this exciting
experience, which we feel provides a set of interesting research
findings on the topics studied. We sincerely hope that this
publication will contrib-ute to discussions and further research
related to the drivers of change, and the threats and challenges
that forests, forestry, and forest-dependent people are fac-ing
today and in the future. We also hope that it will foster attention
to taking advantage of the possible new opportunities the changes
may bring about.
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4
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Acknowledgements
This book is the product of the work of the many scientists and
experts who acted as authors in dif-ferent capacities. Many of them
contributed to this book on their own time or in addition to their
other duties. We would like to sincerely thank all of them for
their commitment and outstanding efforts that made the preparation
of this book possible.
We especially want to acknowledge the important input of all the
reviewers of the different chapters of this book. We sincerely
thank the reviewers for their great contribution in the improvement
of the quality of this publication.
We gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the
Finnish Forest Research Institute (METLA) and the Finnish Ministry
for Foreign Af-fairs, which made possible the development,
publica-tion, and distribution of this book. We also sincerely
recognise the members of the IUFRO WFSE Steering Committee for
providing overall guidance and sup-port. Furthermore, we would like
to thank IUFRO for continuous support to our efforts.
Our special thanks go to partner institutions for their support
and valuable in-kind contributions: Center for International
Forestry Research (CIFOR), Centre de Coopération Internationale en
Recherche
Tania AmmourArild AngelsenRon AylingEdmund BarrowPaul
BartenSimon BellOuti BerghallKevin BishopSusan BraazDavid BrownJim
CarleBernard CantinAngus Carnegie
Reviewers
Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), European Forest
Institute (EFI), Food and Agricul-tural Organisation of the United
Nations (FAO), John Heinrich von Thünen Institut (vTI), Finnish
Forest Research Institute (METLA), Natural Resources Canada (NRC),
Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE),
United Nations University (UNU), and World Agroforestry Centre
(ICRAF).
We are particularly grateful to Seppo Oja for designing and
preparing the layout of this publica-tion, and to Maggie M. Paquet
for language edit-ing. In addition, we want to thank Yijing Zhang
and Jakob Mainusch for assisting in the editorial tasks. Finally,
we want to express our gratitude to all the other people and
organisations who have contributed to this publication in one way
or another.
Editors:
Gerardo Mery, Pia Katila, Glenn Galloway, René I. Alfaro, Markku
Kanninen, Max Lobovikov, and Jari Varjo
June 2010
Stuart F. ChapinChristian CossalterDeborah DavenportJohn
DeromeChris DickMarine ElbakidzeMaurizio Ferrari FarhanJianbang
GanRiitta HänninenWilliam JacksonChris JacobsonLinda A. JoyceVesa
Kaarakka
Antonio LaraMarylin LovelessDavid MacLeanBill MeadesAugusta
MolnarAlex MosselerSeppo NevalainenNkem JohnsonBalgis
Osman-ElashaChristine PadochManuel Ruiz PerezMark PoffenbergerHannu
Raitio
Tapio RantaRavindranath Nijavalli H.Guy RobertsonRobin SearsOlli
SaastamoinenMarcus SangsterMarcus SchaubRisto SeppäläVictoria
SturtevantMeine van NoordwijkDaowei Zhang
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5
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . 3
PART I INTRODUCTION
1 Forests in a Changing World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Gerardo Mery and René I. Alfaro
PART II GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
2 Forests and Adaptation to Climate Change: Challenges and
Opportunities . . . . . 21 Convening lead author: Bruno Locatelli
Lead authors: Maria Brockhaus, Alexander Buck and Ian Thompson
Contributing authors: Carlos Bahamondez, Trevor Murdock, Geoff
Roberts and Jaime Webbe
3 Harnessing Forests for Climate Change Mitigation through REDD+
. . . . . . . . . . . 43 Convening lead author: Markku Kanninen
Lead authors: Maria Brockhaus and Daniel Murdiyarso Contributing
author: Gert-Jan Nabuurs
4 Air Pollution Impacts on Forests in a Changing Climate . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Convening lead author:
Martin Lorenz Lead authors: Nicholas Clarke and Elena Paoletti
Contributing authors: Andrzej Bytnerowicz, Nancy Grulke, Natalia
Lukina, Hiroyuki Sase and Jeroen Staelens
5 Forest Cover and Global Water Governance . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Convening lead
author: Anders Malmer Lead authors: Jonas Ardö, David Scott,
Raffaele Vignola and Jianchu Xu
6 Forest Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Drivers of Change,
Responses and Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Convening lead author: Bastiaan Louman Lead authors: Fabrice
DeClerck, Mohammed Ellatifi, Bryan Finegan and Ian Thompson
7 Forest Health in a Changing Environment . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Convening lead
author: René I. Alfaro Lead authors: Andrea Battisti, Allan
Carroll, Richard Fleming and Jarkko Hantula Contributing authors:
Danielle Francis, Paul E. Hennon, Dolly Lanfranco, Arja Lilja,
Michael Müller, Mar Ramos and Alex Woods
PART III GLOBAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGES
8 Changes in Global Markets for Forest Products and Timberlands
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 Convening lead authors: Anne
Toppinen and Yaoqi Zhang Lead authors: Wei Geng, Susanna
Laaksonen-Craig and Katja Lähtinen Contributing authors: Ning Li,
Can Liu, Indrajit Majumdar and Yueqin Shen
9 Implications of Technological Development to Forestry . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Convening lead authors:
Lauri Hetemäki and Gerardo Mery Lead authors: Markus Holopainen,
Juha Hyyppä, Lu-Min Vaario and Kim Yrjälä
10 Forests and Bioenergy production . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Convening lead author: Antti Asikainen Lead authors: Perttu
Anttila, Jussi Heinimö, Tattersall Smith and Inge Stupak
Contributing author: Waldir Ferreira Quirino
Contents
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6
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
11 Forestry in Changing Social Landscapes . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Convening
Lead Author: Heidi Vanhanen Lead Authors: Jeremy Rayner and Yurdi
Yasmi Contributing authors: Thomas Enters, Miguel Fabra-Crespo,
Peter Kanowski, Heimo Karppinen, Jakob Mainusch and Annukka
Valkeapää
12 Forests, Human Health and Well-Being in Light of Climate
Change and Urbanisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 Convening lead author:
Caroline M. Hägerhäll Lead authors: Åsa Ode, Mari Sundli Tveit and
Maria Dolores Velarde Contributing authors: Carol J. Pierce Colfer
and Tytti Sarjala
13 Extra-Sectoral Drivers of Forest Change . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 Convening
lead authors: Maxim Lobovikov, Laura German and Dirk Jaeger Lead
authors: Sebastiao Kengen and Cecil Konijnendijk Contributing
authors: Irina Buttoud-Kouplevatskaya, Heru Komarudin, Keith M.
McClain, Jose Rente Nascimento, George Schoneveld and J. John
Stadt
PART IV REGIONAL EXAMPLES OF FOREST RELATED CHALLENGES AND
OPPORTUNITIES
14 Sustainability of Boreal Forests and Forestry in a Changing
Environment . . . . . . 249 Convening lead author: Philip J. Burton
Lead authors: Yves Bergeron, Bryan E.C. Bogdanski, Glenn Patrick
Juday,Timo Kuuluvainen, Brenda J. McAfee, Aynslie Ogden and Victor
K. Teplyakov Contributing authors: René I. Alfaro, Danielle A.
Francis, Sylvie Gauthier and Jarkko Hantula
15 Amazon Forests at the Crossroads: Pressures, Responses, and
Challenges . . . . . . 283 Convening lead author: Wil de Jong Lead
authors: Jan Borner, Pablo Pacheco, Benno Pokorny and César Sabogal
Contributing authors: Charlotte Benneker, Walter Cano, Carlos
Cornejo, Kristen Evans, Sergio Ruiz and Mario Zenteno
16 Opportunities and Challenges for Community forestry: Lessons
from Tropical America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 Convening lead
author: Wil de Jong Lead authors: Carlos Cornejo, Pablo Pacheco,
Benno Pokorny and Dietmar Stoian Contributing authors: César
Sabogal and Bastiaan Louman
17 Emerging Local Economic and Social Dynamics Shaping East
African Forest Landscapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . 315 Convening lead author: Abwoli Banana Lead authors: Mukadasi
Buyinza, Emmanuel Luoga and Paul Ongugo
18 Secondary Forests in West Africa: a Challenge and Opportunity
for Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 Convening lead author:
Jobst-Michael Schroeder Lead authors: David O. Oke, Jonathan C.
Onyekwelu and Eshetu Yirdaw
19 Promoting Sustainable Forest Management through Community
Forestry in the Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355 Convening lead author:
Lucrecio L. Rebugio Lead authors: Antonio P. Carandang, Josefina T.
Dizon and Juan M. Pulhin Contributing authors: Leni D. Camacho, Don
Koo Lee and Eleno O. Peralta
20 Genetic Resources and Conservation of Mahogany in Mesoamerica
. . . . . . . . . . . 369 Convening lead author: Carlos Navarro
Lead authors: David Boshier, Stephen Cavers and Andrew Lowe
21 Sustainability of Wood Supply: Risk Analysis for a Pulp Mill
in Guangxi, China . . . 385 Convening lead author: Martti Varmola
Lead author: Markku Kanninen Contributing authors: Ning Li and
Daping Xu
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7
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
PART V MANAGEMENT OPTIONS, POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONAL
ARRANGEMENTS TO ADDRESS NEW CHALLENGES
22 Managing Forested Landscapes for Socio-Ecological Resilience
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401 Convening lead authors: Brenda
J. McAfee and Ronnie de Camino Lead authors: Philip J. Burton,
Brian Eddy, Lutz Fähser, Christian Messier, Maureen G. Reed, Tom
Spies and Roberto Vides Contributing authors: Carolina Baker, Milka
Barriga, José Campos, Olga Corrales, Leonardo Espinoza, Sachi
Gibson, Jonas Glatthorn, Catherine Martineau-Delisle, Cornelis
Prins and Nancy-Anne Rose
23 Ability of Institutions to Address New Challenges . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 Convening lead
authors: Benjamin Cashore and Glenn Galloway Lead authors:
Frederick Cubbage, David Humphreys, Pia Katila, Kelly Levin, Ahmad
Maryudi, Constance McDermott and Kathleen McGinley Contributing
authors: Sebastião Kengen, Moacir José Sales Medrado, María
Cristina Puente, August B Temu and Ederson Augusto Zanetti
PART VI THE WAY FORWARD
24 The Need for New Strategies and Approaches . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489 Glenn Galloway, Pia
Katila and Joachim Krug Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501
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8
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
List of BoxesBox 2.1 Adaptation and vulnerability: Definitions .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . 22
Box 2.2 Using future tree suitability projections for adaptation
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Trevor
Murdock
Box 2.3 Vulnerability assessment of Chilean forests and
landowners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Carlos
Bahamondez
Box 2.4 Adaptation for forests in the NCs and NAPAs . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Box 2.5 Forests for adaptation in the NAPAs . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
37
Box 3.1 Forest-related issues in the Copenhagen Accord . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Box 3.2 Role of northern forests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
48 Gert-Jan Nabuurs
Box 3.3 FCPF and UN-REDD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49
Box 4.1 Ozone impact and risk assessment . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Elena Paoletti and Nancy E. Grulke
Box 5.1 Water challenges in the Sahel – human or natural. An
example of complexity . . . . . . . . 78 Jonas Ardö
Box 5.2 Controversy: Do forests act like sponges to conserve
water? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Anders
Malmer
Box 5.3 China: Optimising land use is first priority . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Jianchu Xu
Box 5.4 South Africa: Empty rivers downstream of forest
plantations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 David
Scott
Box 5.5 Different development and needs drives forms of
governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Box 7.1 Lessons from a Dothistroma needle blight epidemic in
northwestern British Columbia, Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 118 Alex Woods
Box 7.2 Climate change effects on the decline of yellow-cedar .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Paul
Hennon
Box 7.3 Forest management, climate change, and feedbacks: the
mountain pine beetle in western North America . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Allan Carroll
Box 7.4 New forest epidemics in northern Europe . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 Jarkko
Hantula, Michael Müller and Arja Lilja
Box 7.5 Biological control of the invasive pine shoot moth,
Rhyaciona buoliana, in changing Chilean environments . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . 126 Dolly Lanfranco and Mar Ramos
Box 8.1 Non-wood forest product and trade: Lin’an, China . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Yueqin Shen
and Yaoqi Zhang
Box 8.2 Market perspective of bioeconomy from forestry: the case
of Ontario, Canada . . . . . . . 142 Indrajit Majumdar
Box 8.3 The growing importance of corporate responsibility in
the forest-based industry . . . . . 146 Ning Li and Anne
Toppinen
Box 8.4 Forestry investments in China . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
153 Can Liu
Box 9.1 Forest biorefinery: an example of policy driven
technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 Lauri
Hetemäki
Box 9.2 Endophytic bacteria to improve fitness of woody plants .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 Kim Yrjälä and
Lu-Min Vaario
Box 9.3 Laser Measurement-Based Precision Forestry . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 Markus
Holopainen and Juha Hyyppä
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9
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Box 10.1 From deforestation to sustainable fuelwood production .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
Box 11.1 Australians’ attitudes to forests . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
208 Peter Kanowski
Box 11.2 Do attitudes about forests differ between ordinary
citizens and forest owners? . . . . . . 212 Heimo Karppinen and
Annukka Valkeapää
Box 11.3 Comparing citizens’ perceptions of forests in the
Spanish regions of Valencia and Cantabria . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . 214 Miguel Fabra-Crespo
Box 11.4 Potential future areas of conflict . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
217 Yurdi Yasmi and Thomas Enters
Box 11.5 Attitudes to forestry and conservation in Indonesia . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 Jakob
Mainusch
Box 12. 1 Climate change and vector-borne diseases . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 Mari
Sundli Tveit
Box 12.2 Forest and human health in tropical areas . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
Caroline M. Hägerhäll and Carol Colfer
Box 12.3 Forests as a source of health-promoting and bioactive
compounds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 Tytti Sarjala
Box 13.1 Forests and infrastructure: Managing cumulative effects
in a boreal landscape of Alberta, Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 J. John
Stadt and Keith M. McClain
Box 13.2 Forests and urbanisation: The Sihlwald in Zurich,
Switzerland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240 Cecil
Konijnendijk
Box 14.1 Old growth in the Canadian boreal forest. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 Yves
Bergeron and Sylvie Gauthier
Box 14.2 IUCN red-listed species in the boreal forest . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
Brenda J. McAfee
Box 14.3 Recent efforts to promote wood processing in Russia . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261 Victor
Teplyakov
Box 14.4 More insect damage to come: the spruce budworm in
Canada’s boreal forest . . . . . . . . 264 René I. Alfaro
Box 14.5 Heterobasidion parviporum in Finland: expectations for
climatic change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266 Jarkko Hantula
Box 14.6 A Case study of sustainable forest management in a
changing climate: Champagne-Aishihik Traditional Territory,
South-west Yukon, Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 Aynslie
Ogden
Box 17.1 Causes of encroachment in East African forest
landscapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
Box 17.2 FACE-UWA Carbon Sequestration Project . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328
Box 18.1 Geographical determination of West Africa . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
Box 19.1 Ngan, Palansalan, Pagsabangan Forest Resource
Development Cooperative’s (NPPFRDC’s) experience with cancellation
of Resource Use Permit due to the absence of a legislated law that
supports CBFM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
364
Box 22.1 Enabling condition and power balance: Case studies from
El Petén, Guatemala; Hojancha, Costa Rica; and Yuscarán, Honduras .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422
Ronnie De Camino, Carolina Baker and Leonardo Espinoza
Box 22.2 Public participation: Status and challenges in Quebec,
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426 Catherine
Martineau-Delisle
Box 23.1 Policy Intersection: the Case of European Union
(EU)-Indonesian Forest Law Enforcement, Governance, and Trade
(FLEG-T) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 Ahmad
Maryudi
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10
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China CATIE Tropical Agricultural
Research and
Education Centre CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CBFM
Community-Based Forest Manage-
ment CDM Clean Development Mechanism CF Community Forest CIFOR
Center for International Forestry
Research CIRAD Centre de Coopération Inter-
nationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
COP Conference of PartiesCR Corporate Responsibility CSR
Corporate Social Responsibility DBH Diameter at Breast HeightDSS
Decision Support Systems EBM Ecosystem-Based ManagementEFI European
Forest InstituteENGO Environmental Non-Governmental
OrganizationEU European UnionEUR EuroFAO Food and Agricultural
Organization
of the United NationsFLEGT Forest Law Enforcement,
Governance
and Trade FSC Forest Stewardship CouncilGCM General Circulation
ModelGDP Gross Domestic Production GEF Global Environment
FacilityGHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information SystemGMO
Genetically Modified OrganismICRAF World Agroforestry Centre ICT
Information and Communication
TechnologiesIMF International Monetary FundINIFAP National
Institute for Agricultural,
Livestock and Forestry Research of Mexico
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITTO International Tropical Timber Organi-zation
IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature
IUFRO International Union of Forest Research Organizations
MAI Mean Annual IncrementMCPFE Ministerial Conference on the
Pro-
tection of Forests in Europe MDGs Millennium Development
GoalsMEA Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentMETLA Finnish Forest
Research InstituteNGO Non-Governmental Organization NRC Natural
Resources CanadaNTFP Non-Timber Forest Product NWFP Non-Wood Forest
Product PEFC Programme for the Endorsement of
Forest Certification PES Payment for Environmental
ServicesR&D Research and DevelopmentREDD Reducing Emissions
from Deforesta-
tion and Forest Degradation SF Sustainable ForestSFM Sustainable
Forest Management SME Small and Medium Sized EnterpriseUN United
Nations UNCED United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development UNDP United Nations Development
ProgrammeUNECE United Nations Economic Commis-
sion for Europe UNESCO United Nations Educational,
Scientific, and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations
Framework
Convention on Climate Change UNFF United Nations Forum on
Forests UNU United Nations UniversityUS United StatesUSA United
States of AmericaUSD United States DollarvTI John Heinrich von
Thünen InstitutWFSE World Forests, Society and Environ-
mentWTO World Trade OrganizationWWF World Wildlife Fund
Abbreviations and Acronyms
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11
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
PART I
IntroductIon
Ger
ardo
Mer
y
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13
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
1.1 The Rationale of the Book
This new book produced by the International Union of Forest
Research Organizations (IUFRO) Special Project on World Forests,
Society and Environment (WFSE) is the result of a collaborative
effort involv-ing researchers in multiple disciplines from
through-out the world. The publication was conceived as a forum to
analyse the challenges, threats, and oppor-tunities facing the
forest sector due to the profound changes that our planet and
contemporary society are experiencing. The unprecedented pressures
produced by these changes – many of which are global in na-ture,
such as climate change, the growing demands of human society on
natural resources, and increas-ing deforestation – often place the
very survival of numerous ecosystems at risk, threatening their
resil-ience, and seriously affecting the biodiversity of the planet
and the well-being of society.
This book follows our previous publication, For-ests in the
Global Balance: Changing Paradigms (Mery et al. 2005), and uses a
similar research ap-proach in which the analyses evolve in broad
global or regional levels, and the phenomena studied are intended
to describe problems and challenges in a comprehensive manner. Our
aim has been to avoid an analysis of the forest sector in
isolation. We wanted to consider the pressures and synergies on
forests pre-sented by other socio-economic sectors, particularly
those that have a clear impact on forests and forestry, such as
wood-based industries, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and the
complex array of pressures from a growing human population and the
resultant high demands for forest products and services. We wanted
to apply an interdisciplinary approach to the topics studied.
Our primary interest was to identify the main drivers of change
and their direct or indirect re-percussions on forests and
forestry, to propose ways to reduce the adverse effects posed by
these drivers, and to identify the benefits or opportunities these
drivers of change may bring. We have included a number of case
studies that serve to illustrate how society and institutions are
striving to respond to the aforementioned drivers of change, at
different scales, and in diverse parts of the world.
A key aspect in this publication was to investigate whether the
foremost paradigm that has governed forestry during the last two
decades, namely sustain-able forest management (SFM), is really
working in practice for people and nature. We acknowledge the
strategic impetus provided by SFM in the sustained production of
goods and services, and in the mainten-ance of future options
related to forests, without dam-aging other ecosystems. However,
the rampant rate of deforestation and forest degradation that still
exists, the continuity of the serious problems affecting our
planet’s biodiversity, and the persistence of poverty in areas
where forest resources play an important role in socio-economic
development, has led us to think that the ultimate solution to
these problems must be found not only by considering forests and
forestry activities, but also in looking beyond the forest
sector.
Therefore, our a priori consideration was the urgent need to
broaden the concept of SFM through a more integrated notion of
social and natural re-source management, including the management
of land, water, and other natural resources along with the forests.
On that basis, we may find a proper bal-ance – at the broadest
landscape level – that enables us not only to use these natural
resources, but also to effectively conserve them for the benefit of
future generations.
Special emphasis was placed on analysing poli-cies and
institutional arrangements being pursued to address new challenges,
and how global and re-gional policy goals translate into tangible
progress in sustainable forest management at the local level.
Drawing on experience to date, and on the perceived growing
complexity of the forestry sector, policy and institutional
arrangements are proposed, as well as conclusions about the profile
of new professionals needed to meet crucial challenges affecting
forests, society, and the environment.
Consistent with the analysis and assumptions outlined above,
this book, Forests and Society – Re-sponding to Global Drivers of
Change, offers readers 24 chapters grouped into six parts. This
first part is introductory, explains the purpose of the book, and
describes a brief introduction for each chap-ter. The second part,
in six chapters, analyses the
1 Forests in a Changing World
Gerardo Mery and René I. Alfaro
INTRODUCTION
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14
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
1 FORESTS IN A CHANGING WORLD 1 FORESTS IN A CHANGING WORLD
global environmental changes affecting the world’s forests. The
third part, also with six chapters, deals with issues relating to
global socio-economic chan-ges affecting forests. The fourth part
presents eight regional or local examples of forest-related
challen-ges and opportunities in the changing world. The fifth
part, in two chapters, deals with forest management options,
policies, and institutional arrangements the authors believe are
needed to address new challen-ges, and present the main findings,
highlighting the challenges and opportunities found within the
book, and propose strategies to promote a better future for people
and forests. In the sixth part, the final chapter of the book, the
reader will find in-depth analyses of the challenges and
opportunities faced by forests and forestry in a changing world.
Beginning with Part 2, Chapter 2, the individual chapters are
briefly described below.
1.2 Brief Introduction to the Chapters
Chapter 2 is Forests and Adaptation to Climate Change:
Challenges and Opportunities. In this chap-ter, the authors explain
why and how forests and forest-dependent societies are likely to be
affected by climate change and its associated environmental and
socio-economic disturbances. The chapter pro-vides an overview of
climate change as a driver of change in forests, the challenges and
opportunities of adapting forests and forest-dependent people
to
climate change, and the use of forests in adaptation practices,
as well as associated policy issues.
In Chapter 3, Harnessing Forests for Climate Change Mitigation
through REDD+, the authors point out that deforestation, forest
degradation, and land-use changes are major sources of carbon
emis-sions. The urgent need to reduce carbon emissions has led to
the development of mechanisms, such as REDD+, that may provide an
attractive option to enable developed countries to partially
achieve their reduction targets through investment in developing
countries. Such mechanisms may also provide less developed
countries with a source of financing for sustainable forest
management to support rural de-velopment plans and poverty
reduction strategies. The implementation of these new mechanisms
will demand the active participation of local communi-ties,
enabling them to benefit from emerging carbon markets and
opportunities generated by the renewal of governmental
institutions, and the formulation and application of new policies
and regulations.
Chapter 4, Air Pollution Impacts on Forests in a Changing
Climate, is also concerned with climate change issues. The authors
point out that awareness of air pollution effects on forests from
the early 1980s led to intensive research, monitoring, and public
awareness, particularly in developed countries. The first
indications of a recovery of forest soil and tree conditions –
which may be attributed to improved air quality – have been
identified. However, the in-tegrative effects of air pollution and
climatic change (particularly elevated O
3) altered nutrient cycling and
availability, temperature, water availability, and el-
Photo 1. This book was developed by 160 authors from all around
the world through a collaborative and open process. The photo shows
the participants to the Editorial Workshop organised on the
premises of von Thünen Institut in Hamburg, Germany, in June
2009.
von
Thün
en In
stitu
t
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1 FORESTS IN A CHANGING WORLD
15
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
1 FORESTS IN A CHANGING WORLD
evated CO2, will be key issues for research, including
into interactions of these effects and the development of
ecosystem models integrating multiple effects.
In Chapter 5, Forest Cover in Global Water Gov-ernance, the
authors stress the importance of water as a key resource for
growing human populations and for sustaining increased production
of food and energy under threat from climate change. The central
role of forests in water cycling and for protecting water quality
is also emphasised. The development of a common understanding of
the role of forest man-agement in water governance, and a readiness
for diverse future scenarios in a global change perspec-tive are
key objectives. Major conclusions include emphasis on preparedness
for solutions where forest management is part of water governance
to meet the needs of different land users. The importance of
transparency and local involvement of stakeholders is also
discussed.
Chapter 6, Forest Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Drivers
of Change, Responses, and Chal-lenges, describes four relevant
anthropogenic driv-ers of change in biodiversity, namely conversion
of forests into agricultural lands, over-exploitation of forests,
air pollution leading to climate change and acid rain, and invasive
species. The authors recom-mend a proactive approach to forest
conservation, combining aspects of willingness to conserve with
willingness to pay for further conservation; removal of
administrative barriers to sustainable forest man-agement and
protection; landscape management; inter-sectoral coordination
between international, national, and local policies; increased
communica-tion among stakeholders; and more research on the
interactions between biodiversity and ecosystem services.
In Chapter 7, Forest Health in a Changing Envi-ronment, the
authors emphasise that climate change will have profound effects on
future forest distribu-tion and composition, as well as on the
organisms living in forests. It describes how climate change models
anticipate that trees will become more sus-ceptible to insects and
diseases as these organisms sustain alterations in their
lifecycles, increase their host ranges and virulence, and become
important drivers of change in forest ecosystems. Accelerated
global trade will foster the likelihood of introduction of new
pathogens as well as plants and animals alien to native ecosystems.
Measures for increasing forest resistance to climate-induced forest
health decline and the role of pest management as a mitigating tool
for climate change on forests are presented.
Chapter 8, Changes in Global Markets for Forest Products and
Timberlands, presents a brief review of the major global trends in
the trade of forest products, followed by an analysis of foreign
direct investment in forest industries, and the growth of
timberland investments. The driving forces of changes are
identi-
fied and investigated. The reallocation of the forest industry’s
production capacity in developing coun-tries is analysed. The
authors also discuss the chang-ing face of forestry and the global
markets for wood products, coupled with timberland investment as a
form of joint response to changing economies, mar-kets, land
values, technologies, and public policies. The greater
environmental awareness of consumers is also considered.
Chapter 9, Implications of Technological De-velopment (TD) to
Forestry, observes that TD often creates new opportunities and
structures that make obsolete and commonly destroy the old
technolo-gies. Technological development has rarely been the focus
of forest research, despite its large impact on different fields of
forest sciences and forestry. The impacts of technological change
on the forest sector are analysed by focusing on three
technologies: in-formation and communication technologies,
biotech-nology applications in forestry, and laser technology
applications to forest inventories and monitoring. The implications
and opportunities created by these three technologies are analysed,
as well as the chal-lenges that they represent.
Chapter 10, Forests and Bioenergy Production, refers to the
growing global role of forests as a renew-able energy source. The
authors explain how woody biomass is increasingly being used for
power, heat, and in the derivation of transportation fuels.
Forest-based energy production can reduce the use of fossil fuels
and the emission of greenhouse gases. How-ever, the
over-utilisation of forest ecosystems can jeopardise the
sustainable development of forests and have negative effects on the
people who are depend-ent on them. Therefore, forest energy
policies have to be based on the principle of sustainable
development, ensuring both socio-economic and environmental
vi-ability of this use of the resource.
Chapter 11, Forestry in Changing Social Land-scapes, describes
how current rapid changes tend to push social and ecological
systems toward un-sustainable conditions. The challenge is to
maintain the balance between these systems and, simultane-ously,
secure ecological resilience while avoiding social disruption and
insecurity. Global population growth, its concentration in urban
centres, as well as changing consumption habits, will impact global
land use, including forests. Perceptions and attitudes, and
inherent cultures of societies, determine the level of public
support and success of forestry, the imple-mentation of sustainable
management, and effective conservation measures.
Chapter 12, Forests, Human Health and Well-being in Light of
Climate Change and Urbanisation, begins with the recognition that
forests provide a wide range of ecosystem goods and services
ben-eficial (and in many cases, absolutely required) for human life
in both urban and rural areas. In addition,
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FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
1 FORESTS IN A CHANGING WORLD 1 FORESTS IN A CHANGING WORLD
forests are important arenas for recreation, aesthetic
appreciation, and stress relief, and for some cultures, even
spiritual renewal. However, many of these posi-tive effects of
forests on human health and well-being may be threatened as a
result of climate change. In-creased pressure on urban forests and
their capacity to provide ecosystem services, reduced availability
and quality of recreational areas, and higher risk of exposure to
vector-borne diseases are some of the adverse effects
discussed.
Chapter 13, Extra-Sectoral Drivers of Forest Change, discusses
the importance of drivers that are external to the forest sector in
shaping forests and forestry. These driving forces originate beyond
forestry, and often affect forests and their social, eco-nomic, and
ecological functions. The authors explain that these drivers of
change have frequently contrib-uted to extra-sectoral influences
that eclipse secto-ral developments as key drivers of forest
landscape transformation. A brief overview of extra-sectoral
pressures on forests, and the effects these have had on
forest-dependent communities, is given.
Chapter 14, Sustainability of Boreal Forests and Forestry in a
Changing Environment, explains that this extensive biome, which is
undergoing changes such as thawing of permafrost and increased
levels of natural and anthropogenic disturbance, may produce net
releases of CO
2 and methane, while forest cover
with greater biomass can be expected to expand onto the arctic
tundra. Human use in some parts of north-ern forests is becoming
more centralised and indus-trialised. The ecosystems and people of
the world’s boreal forests are vulnerable to impending climatic and
socio-economic changes. Despite these changes, the boreal zone will
continue to present opportunities to undertake landscape management
over large areas dominated by natural forests to conserve
biodiversity, establish and sustain economically viable enterprises
and enhance development opportunities for northern communities.
Chapter 15, Amazon Forests at the Crossroads: Pressures,
Responses, and Challenges, describes some of the current key
social, occupational, and political dynamics in the region, and
reviews the prime threats affecting Amazonian forests and rural
livelihoods. Among these are cattle-ranching, soy-beans production,
logging, infrastructure expansion, and the oil and gas industry.
Also, a review of several recent responses to these threats is
discussed, includ-ing progress in retooling institutions: for
example, land tenure reform, decentralised government and
deregulation, and incentives to support sustainable forest use and
the newly emerging REDD initia-tives.
Chapter 16, Opportunities and Challenges for Community Forestry:
Lessons from Tropical Ameri-ca, focuses on the actual contribution
of forests and trees to rural livelihoods concentrating on
evidence
that provides a more precise identification of the real
potential of communal forestry to contribute to rural development.
The authors review some of the challenges faced by community
forestry develop-ment initiatives, and critically reflect on the
need for actions to favour community forestry enterprise
development and their integration into forest prod-ucts value
chains. These measures are seen necessary to enhance the generation
of profits and to better prepare community-based enterprises to
deal with complex policies and regulations. Finally, the
po-tentials, limitations, and challenges of community and
smallholder forestry are discussed.
Emerging Local Economic and Social Dynamics Shaping East African
Forest Landscapes is the sub-ject of Chapter 17. It focuses on
three East African countries: Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. Climate
change is a future threat in the region, accentuated by the heavy
dependency of local communities on forest resources for income and
fuelwood. Conversion of forest land to agriculture is another key
challenge. Among the major drivers of deforestation is the fail-ure
to implement policies and regulations meant to control the use of
forest resources. New initiatives have been undertaken to help
resolve these challeng-es, including decentralisation, increasing
participa-tion of communities in the management of forests,
expanding the role of the private sector, and local communities in
forest plantation development.
In Chapter 18, Secondary Forests in West Africa: A Challenge and
Opportunity for Management, the authors point out that secondary
forests constitute about 90% of West African forests. These forests
are often degraded and continue to suffer diverse pressures and
disturbances. Viable options for the sustainable use of these
forests must be developed. A broad dissemination and application of
rehabilita-tion concepts based on ecological processes – such as
succession – must be undertaken. Applicable sil-vicultural
management systems, including enrich-ment planting, refining, and
liberation to gradually re-convert degraded forests into valuable
timber resources, must be explored and applied with local
participation. Agroforestry and utilisation of non-wood forest
products also offer good possibilities for management, economic
improvement of impov-erished resources and food security,
contributing to the stabilisation of livelihood strategies of rural
populations.
Chapter 19, Promoting Sustainable Forest Management Through
Community Forestry in the Philippines, explains that participation
and equity are core values of “community forestry or partici-patory
forestry.” The Philippines is one of the pio-neers in Asia in the
adoption of community-based forest management strategies, having
three decades of experience in promoting sustainable forest
man-agement (SFM) through the participation of local
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1 FORESTS IN A CHANGING WORLD
17
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
1 FORESTS IN A CHANGING WORLD
communities. The potential and current limitations of this
national strategy are explored, and the rationale, history,
objectives, and analyses of the factors behind its development are
explained. Different approaches to community forestry,
accomplishments, and out-comes are discussed; the enabling and
reinforcing mechanisms are analysed, along with the issues and
challenges facing the implementation of SFM. Fi-nally, a synopsis
of conclusions and lessons learned is presented.
Chapter 20, Genetic Resources and Conser-vation of Mahogany in
Mesoamerica, reviews the current knowledge on the genetic variation
of ma-hogany (Swietenia spp.) and discusses the impor-tance of
provenance variability, seed transfer and sourcing recommendations.
Further, the authors explore management strategies for mahogany,
and provide guidelines for conversing genetic diversity in
different forest landscapes. They conclude that con-servation and
sustainable management of mahogany genetic resources are not simple
tasks, requiring local community involvement to prevent illegal
logging. Community efforts must be compensated to ensure mutual
benefit. Landscape level strategies for the effective management of
mahogany trees outside of forests, for example in agroforestry
practices, are ur-gently needed. An international consensus is
needed for phytosanitary procedures.
Chapter 21, Sustainability of Wood Supply: Risk Analysis for a
Pulp Mill in Guangxi, China, focuses on the experiences of Stora
Enso Corporation in es-tablishing eucalypt plantations for
supplying a large pulp mill in southern China with an annual
produc-tion capacity of 1 million tonnes. The evaluation of the
project concluded that it would be profitable, and environmentally
and socially sustainable. Wood supply was assessed to be sufficient
for the plant, a conclusion based on simple estimates of mean
annual increment and areas of plantation available without fully
taking into account many high-risk factors. The paper illustrates
the need for many new fast-growing eucalypt plantations to ensure
long-term sustainability of wood supply. National macro-eco-nomic
planning; a consistent policy and management framework; and
systematic and focused approaches emanating from the government and
the private sec-tor are needed, including clear policies of
corporate responsibility.
Chapter 22, Managing Forested Landscapes for Socio-Ecological
Resilience, puts forward new ap-proaches for managing forests for
wood and other ecosystem goods and services. Case studies are used
to illustrate recent advances in forest management in response to
local impacts brought on by global change that address current
challenges and ele-ments of an emerging management paradigm based
on ecological and socio-economic systems. Such a framework
recognises the complexity of systems, their hierarchical
structures, their interactions, and their capacity for
self-organisation. Learning how to facilitate the ability of
natural forest systems to self-organise, adapt and evolve, and to
guide them towards a desired appropriate state is one of the
challenges. The increasing importance of engagement, capacity
building, and participation in landscape management is recognised
as a first step toward maintaining the provision of ecosystem goods
and services.
Chapter 23, Ability of Institutions to Address New Challenges,
presents an analytical framework for reviewing research findings
and analysing the most promising institutional settings with which
to address the drivers of change, to ameliorate problems, and to
encourage responsible and sustainable forest management. Attention
is focused on the shift from government to governance, political
authority, dis-entangling abstract policy for specific
requirements, and capacity enhancing knowledge-generating and
administrative institutions. It reveals that the glo-bal nature of
economic, social, and environmental demands on the world’s forests,
and complex com-mercial trade relationships, require an integrative
analyses of domestic and local responses to assess the role of
innovative regional and global institutions designed to address
“good governance.” The authors conclude by calling for much greater
attention to the potential of synergistic institutional
intersection to respond to new and enduring challenges in ways that
single institutions are incapable of doing.
Chapter 24, the concluding chapter, is titled The Need for New
Strategies and Approaches. This chapter summarises the main
findings of the book, highlights challenges and opportunities, and
analyses and proposes strategies required to promote a more
promising future for people and forests. A brief al-lusion is made
to the profile of new professionals required to meet current
challenges affecting forests, society, and the environment. The key
messages of the book are presented in a concise fashion in the last
section of this chapter.
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19
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
PART II
Global EnvironmEntal ChanGEs
Mat
ti N
umm
elin
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21
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
2 Forests and Adaptation to Climate Change: Challenges and
Opportunities
Convening lead author: Bruno Locatelli
Lead authors: Maria Brockhaus, Alexander Buck and Ian
Thompson
Contributing authors: Carlos Bahamondez, Trevor Murdock, Geoff
Roberts and Jaime Webbe
Abstract: Climate change is an important driver of changes in
forests. As forests and forest-dependent societies are likely to be
affected by climate change and its associated disturbances,
adaptation is needed for reducing the vulnerability of forests to
climate change. New challenges arise from the need to understand
the vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent communities to
climate change and to facilitate how they adapt to the changes.
Forests also play a role in how the broader society adapts to
climate change because forests provide diverse ecosystem services
that contribute to human well-being and reduce social
vulnerability. For this reason, forests should be considered in
planning the adaptation of the society beyond forests.
Ecosystem-based adaptation, an emerging approach to dealing forests
in a changing climate, offers opportunities for forest and
forest-dependent communities and supports the conservation or
sustainable management of forests. This chapter presents an
overview of climate change as a driver of changes in forests, the
challenges and opportunities of adapting forests and the use of
forests in adaptation practices, as well as the associated policy
issues.
Keywords: climate change, adaptation, vulnerability, impacts,
adaptive capacity, resilience, biodiversity, ecosystem services,
ecosystem-based adaptation, adaptation policy
■
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
2.1 Introduction
Since the publication of its first assessment report in 1990,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has gathered
incontrovertible evi-dence of human-induced climate change and the
impacts it will have on ecosystems and on human societies (IPCC
2007). For tackling the resulting problems, two broad categories of
responses have been defined: (1) mitigation (reducing the
accu-mulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere) and, (2)
adaptation (reducing the vulnerability of societies and ecosystems
facing the impacts of cli-mate change). So far, the prominent
international responses – the United Nations Framework Conven-tion
on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol – have focussed on
mitigation rather than adaptation. However, with some degree of
global temperature increase now recognised as inevitable,
adaptation is
gaining importance in climate policy arenas at global and
national levels.
While forests have a place in mitigation science and policy,
their place in the emerging science of adaptation and in new
climate-related policies is still to be built up. The linkage
between forests and adaptation is two-fold: first, adaptation is
needed for forests and forest-dependent people; second, forests
play a role in adaptation of the broader society. In the first
instance, because climate change is an important driver of changes
in forests, new challenges arise from the need to understand both
how the forests will change and what will be the impacts of those
changes on forest-dependent people. We will need to assess the
vulnerability of forest-dependent communities to the changes in
forests, as well as determine success-ful ways of adapting to those
changes (see definitions of vulnerability and adaptation in Box
2.1).
In the second instance, because forests provide ecosystem
services that contribute to human well-
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22
FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
2 FORESTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLImATE CHANGE: CHALLENGES AND
OPPORTuNITIES 2 FORESTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLImATE CHANGE:
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTuNITIES
being and reduce social vulnerability, forests should be
considered when planning adaptation policies and practices in
sectors outside of the forest sector. This presents new
opportunities for the forest sector.
This chapter presents an overview of climate change as a driver
of changes in forests, the chal-lenges and opportunities of
adapting forests and us-ing forests for adaptation, as well as the
associated policy issues.
2.2 Forests are Vulnerable to Climate Change
Many forests are likely to be affected this century by an
unprecedented combination of climate change, associated
disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects), and
other drivers of change (e.g., land use change, pollution,
over-exploitation of re-sources).
According to the IPCC definition of vulnerabil-ity (see Box
2.1), the potential impacts of climate change on forests result
from exposure and sensitiv-
According to the IPCC, vulnerability is “the degree to which a
system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects
of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate
of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity,
and its adaptive capacity” (McCarthy et al. 2001). According to the
IPCC definition, the three components of vulnerability are
exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (see definitions in
the figure, where the signs under the arrows mean that high
exposure, high sensitivity, and low adap-tive capacity induce high
vulnerability).
Adaptation is defined by the IPCC as “an ad-justment in natural
or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli
or their ef-
Figure 2.1 Definitions.
fects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities.” Various types of adaptation are distinguished, such
as anticipatory or proactive adaptation (“that takes place before
impacts of climate change are observed”), reactive adaptation
(“that takes place after impacts of climate change have been
observed”), autonomous or spontaneous adaptation (“that does not
constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is
triggered by eco-logical changes in natural systems and by market
or welfare changes in human systems”) and planned adaptation (“that
is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an
awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and
that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a
desired state”).
Box 2.1 Adaptation and vulnerability: Definitions
Vulnerability ”The degree to which a system is susceptible to,
or
unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes”
Potential impacts PI ”All impacts that may occur given a
projected change in climate, without considering
adaptation”
Adaptive capacity AC ”The ability to adjust to climate
change
(including climate variability and extremes) to moderate
potential damages, to take
advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the
consequences”
Exposure E ”The nature and
degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic
variations”
Sensitivity S ”The degree to which a system is affected,
either
adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. The
effect may be direct (e.g. damages
caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due
to sea level rise”
+
+ +
-
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ity. Forests are exposed to different factors of climate change
and variability, as well as other drivers, such as changes in land
use or pollution, that may ex-acerbate the impacts of climate
change (see Figure 2.2). Sensitivity refers to the degree to which
a forest will be affected by a change in climate, either
posi-tively or negatively, such as through changes in tree level
processes, species distribution, or disturbance regimes (see Figure
2.2).
The vulnerability of a forest also depends on its adaptive
capacity (see definition in Box 2.1). Even if the adaptive capacity
of forests remains uncertain (Julius et al. 2008), many scientists
are concerned that this innate capacity will not be sufficient to
enable forests to adapt to unprecedented rates of climatic changes
(Gitay et al. 2002, Seppälä et al. 2009). Species can adapt to
climate change through phenotypic plasticity (commonly termed
acclimati-sation), adaptive evolution, or migration to suitable
sites (Markham 1996, Bawa and Dayanandan 1998). The adaptive
capacity of an ecosystem is related to the diversity of functional
groups within the ecosys-tem and the diversity of species within
groups, the most compelling explanation being the redundancy
provided by multi-species membership in critical functional groups
(Walker 1992, 1995; Peterson et al. 1998; Thompson et al. 2009).
Several studies suggest that successful adaptation to climate
change may require migration rates much faster than those observed
in the past, such as during postglacial times (Malcolm et al. 2002,
Pearson 2006).
In the following sections, we present some evi-dence of impacts
and vulnerability of forests, ac-cording to biomes. Various forest
classifications have been derived to describe the large diversity
among global forest types. Here we use four forest biomes (boreal,
temperate, subtropical, and tropical) (see FAO 2001 and Map
2.1).
We describe climate change impacts for two clus-ters of climate
scenarios: growth and stable (Fischlin et al. 2009). The growth
cluster includes scenarios in which emissions continue to increase
over the course of the current century at rates similar to those in
the second half of the last century (i.e., “business as usu-al”)
due to the absence of stringent climate policy, as in, for
instance, the IPCC reference scenarios A1FI, A1B, and A2. The
stable cluster includes scenarios in which emissions decline during
the course of the current century as a result of major
socio-economic changes that allow atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO
2)
concentrations to approach a new equilibrium by the year 2100,
as in, for instance, the IPCC reference scenarios A1T, B2, and
B1.
We also describe how the impacts of climate change will affect
biodiversity. According to the IPCC, roughly 20–30% of vascular
plants and higher animals on the planet are estimated to be at an
in-creasingly high risk of extinction as temperatures increase by
2–3°C above pre-industrial levels (Fis-chlin et al. 2009). Even
small changes in climate could affect phenological events (such as
flowering and fruiting) that may escalate into major impacts on
forest biodiversity. This is because co-evolution has produced
highly specialised interactions among specific plant and animal
species in natural forests.
Overall, it is very likely that even modest losses in
biodiversity would cause consequential changes in the ecosystem
services that forests provide, such as the service of sequestering
carbon. Climate feed-backs from local climate to the global carbon
cycle may have major implications for the global climate and may
contribute to an acceleration of climate change. Several climate
change models project that the carbon-regulating services of
forests could be severely degraded under climate scenarios in the
growth cluster (Cramer et al. 2004).
Figure 2.2 Components of the exposure and sensitivity of forest
ecosystems (after Johnston and Williamson 2007).
Exposure Sensitivity
Climate change and variability Increase in temperature Changes
in precipitation Changes in seasonal patterns Hurricanes and storms
Increase in CO2 levels
Sea level rise Other drivers
Land use change Landscape fragmentation Resource exploitation
Pollution
Changes in tree level processes e.g. productivity
Changes in species distribution Changes in site conditions
e.g. soil condition Changes in stand structure
e.g. density, height Changes in disturbance regimes
e.g. fires, pests and diseases
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2 FORESTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLImATE CHANGE: CHALLENGES AND
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2.2.1 Tropical Forests
Impacts of climate variability and change have al-ready been
observed in tropical forests, for instance, on ecosystem structure
and functioning, and carbon cycling (Root et al. 2003, Fearnside
2004, Malhi and Phillips 2004). Studies of changes in tropical
forest regions since the last glacial maximum show the sensitivity
of species composition and ecology to climate changes (Hughen et
al. 2004). Climate variability and associated events, such as the
El Niño Southern Oscillation, have caused drought and in-creased
the frequency of fire in humid tropical forests in Indonesia and
Brazil (Barlow and Peres 2004, Murdiyarso and Lebel 2007). Some
species extinc-tions linked to climate change have already been
reported for tropical forests. For example, Pounds et al. (1999,
2006) reported that climate change and a fungal pathogen were
important causes of recent extinctions of the golden toad (Bufo
periglenes).
Climate change is expected to cause significant shifts in the
distribution of tropical rainforests and disturbance patterns. The
possibility that climate change could enhance drought in the Amazon
is of major concern because it would cause increased wildfire,
climate-induced forest dieback, and large-scale conversion of
tropical rainforest to savannah, which has important implications
for the global cli-mate (Cox et al. 2004, Scholze et al. 2006,
Nepstad et al. 2008). In the humid tropics of north Queensland
(Australia), significant shifts in the extent and distri-bution of
tropical forests are likely because several forest types are highly
sensitive to a 1°C warming, and most types are sensitive to changes
in precipita-tion (Hilbert et al. 2001).
Tropical cloud forests are an important subset of tropical
forests from a climate change perspective.
Even small-scale shifts in temperature and precipita-tion are
expected to have serious consequences be-cause cloud forests are
located in areas having steep gradients. The highly specific
climatic conditions of cloud forests (Foster 2002) that justify
monitoring these forests for possible effects of climate change
(Loope and Giambelluca 1998). Atmospheric warm-ing raises the
altitude of cloud cover that provides tropical cloud forest species
with the prolonged mois-ture they receive by being immersed in the
clouds (Pounds et al. 1999). The habitats they require will shift
up the slopes of mountains, forcing species into increasingly
smaller areas (Hansen et al. 2003). In East Maui, Hawaii, the steep
microclimatic gradients combined with increases in interannual
variability in precipitation and hurricanes are expected to cause
replacement of endemic biota by non-native plants and animals
(Loope and Giambelluca 1998).
Tropical dry forests are very sensitive to changes in rainfall,
which can affect vegetation productiv-ity and plant survival (Hulme
2005, Miles 2006). Studies conducted in Tanzania and Costa Rica
show that tropical dry forests may be particularly sensitive to
life zone shifts under climate change (Mwakif-wamba and Mwakasonda
2001, Enquist 2002). A slight annual decrease in precipitation is
expected to make tropical dry forests subject to greater risk from
forest fires in the immediate future. Prolonging the dry seasons
would enhance desiccation, mak-ing the forest system more exposed
and sensitive to fires. However, increased fire occurrence can lead
eventually to a decrease of fires due to the reduction of fuelbeds
over time (Goldammer and Price 1998, Hansen et al. 2003).
Tropical mangroves are also highly threatened by climate change.
The principal threat to mangroves comes from sea level rise and the
associated changes
Map 2.1 Distribution of the world’s forests by major ecological
zone (FAO 2001).
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2 FORESTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLImATE CHANGE: CHALLENGES AND
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2 FORESTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLImATE CHANGE: CHALLENGES AND
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in sediment dynamics, erosion, and salinity. Sea level rise is
expected to take place at about twice the rate of sediment
accumulation, which is necessary for the survival of mangroves, and
erosion will reduce the size of mangroves (Hansen et al. 2003).
Mangroves may be affected by other atmospheric changes as well,
including temperature, increased carbon diox-ide, and storms.
The vulnerability of tropical forests is also in-creased by non
climatic pressures, such as forest conversion and fragmentation. In
the Amazon, the interactions between agricultural expansion, forest
fires, and climate change could accelerate the deg-radation process
(Nepstad et al. 2008). The ability of species to migrate will be
limited by forest frag-mentation, and their ability to colonise new
areas will be affected by invasive species (Fischlin et al. 2007).
Climate change could be the biggest cause of increased extinction
rates in tropical forests (Fischlin et al. 2007), exacerbated by
the continued loss of forest cover and forest degradation.
However, many dimensions of the vulnerability of tropical
rainforests remain uncertain (Morgan et al. 2001, Wright 2005).
Integrated research about these various drivers and their
interactions is lack-ing, particularly in the tropics, which
impedes the assessment of climate change impacts and
vulner-abilities.
2.2.2 Subtropical Forests
Many subtropical forests regularly experience high temperatures
and extended droughts, making them particularly susceptible to
forest fires. Greater fire frequencies have already been observed
in the Medi-terranean basin (Fischlin et al. 2009). According to
the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, drought stress has affected
vegetation and reduced gross primary production by as much as 30%
in southern Europe, resulting in a net carbon source, particularly
during the heat wave of 2003 (Fischlin et al. 2007).
Under climate scenarios in the growth cluster, subtropical
forests are projected to experience higher evapotranspiration and
lower rainfall. Productivity in most subtropical forests is
projected to decrease under a wide range of climate-change
scenarios due to increases in temperatures above physiological
op-timum (Fischlin et al. 2009). Higher temperatures and longer
droughts are likely to increase vegetation flammability, leading to
more frequent forest fires. However, contrary to the pattern
expected in boreal and temperate forests, fire frequencies may
reach saturation after an initial stage, or may even dimin-ish when
conditions become so dry that decreased production leads to less
fuel accumulation (Fischlin et al. 2009). Under more frequent
disturbance, espe-
cially fire and drought, carbon stocks are expected to be
greatly reduced (Bond et al. 2005).
The subtropics contain some of the most promi-nent biodiversity
hotspots in Latin America, Austra-lia, and South Africa. These
biodiversity hotspots are highly sensitive to changing climatic
conditions under a wide range of climate-change scenarios.
Projections suggest that 40% of biodiversity in subtropical forests
could be lost even under climate scenarios in the stable cluster
(Fischlin et al. 2009). Many subtropical forest species exist in
highly frag-mented environments and are at particular risk of
extinction, with subsequent negative impacts on the livelihoods of
forest-dependent people.
2.2.3 Temperate Forests
There is no evidence yet of widespread change in temperate
forest types (Fischlin et al. 2007), although local changes have
been reported in southern Swit-zerland (Walther 2000) and in
British Columbia (Hebda 2008), and tree lines have advanced in
alpine areas (Kullman 2001, Danby and Hik 2007). Lack of major
change in temperate forest types should not be surprising, however,
as trees in temperate regions are long-lived and most are
slow-growing. Physi-ological responses to warmer temperatures have
been observed in trees, including longer growing season (Menzel and
Fabrian 1999, Piao et al. 2007) and higher production (Boisvenue
and Running 2006, Martinez-Vilalta et al. 2008), except where
moisture limitation occurs.
Largely based on Sitch et al. (2003), Fischlin et al. (2007)
reported broad temperate forest decline and forest type change
under the growth (+3.8°C) climate change scenarios. Whereas under
the stable (+2°C) scenario, Fischlin et al. (2007) reported
relatively less decline, but still considerable forest change was
predicted. These conclusions are broadly supported in the
literature for all forested continents (Sykes and Prentice 1996,
Bugmann 1997, Iverson and Prassad 2002, del Rio et al. 2005,
Goldblum and Rigg 2005, Frumhoff et al. 2007, Kellomäki et al.
2008).
The three main disturbances in temperate for-ests include fire,
wind, and herbivory (Frelich 2002), along with various pathogens.
These will all change in severity, frequency, and in their
interactions with climate change (Meehl et al. 2007). Where fire is
a factor, it is expected to increase (Cary 2002, Garzon et al.
2008). Temperate forests will also be affected by an increased
number of invasive species (Ward and Masters 2007).
Broad range changes in tree species and novel forest types can
be expected during the next 70–100 years in temperate forests
(Sitch et al. 2003, Fischlin et al. 2007, 2009). Temperate forest
communities will
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FORESTS AND SOCIETY – RESPONDING TO GLOBAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
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change; species will migrate pole-ward, up moun-tains, or be
replaced by grasslands and savannahs in drier areas, including
areas of the Mediterranean zone (Sykes and Prentice 1996, Bugmann
1997, Iver-son and Prassad 2002, Malcolm et al. 2002, del Rio et
al. 2005, Fei and Sen 2005, Goldblum and Rigg 2005, Frumhoff et al.
2007, Keinast et al. 2007, Gar-zon et al. 2008, Koca et al. 2008,
Martinez-Vilalta et al. 2008, Fischlin et al. 2009) and in North
America (Hamann and Wang 2006, McKenney et al. 2007). High
uncertainty is associated with these predictions owing to
interactions among increased fire, invasive species, pathogens, and
storms (Dale et al. 2001).
Marked species migration and novel ecosystem development is also
likely under climate change in temperate forests. There is concern
that climate change may exceed the capacity of species with heavy
seeds (such as Quercus spp.) to migrate (Malcolm et al. 2002).
Original forest species communities are unlikely to reassemble
owing to differential species migration capacity and responses to
disturbances, and anthropogenically altered landscapes. Migration
of species to surrogate habitats may be impeded by the
fragmentation of temperate forest landscapes ow-ing to 20th century
anthropogenic activity, as well as natural barriers (e.g., mountain
ranges, lakes, and seas).
Some research suggests increased productivity in temperate
forests in response to climate change (Joyce and Nungesser 2000,
Parry 2000) as mod-erated by moisture, and driven by nitrogen
levels (Magnani et al. 2007) and soil type (Rasmussen et al. 2008).
While nitrogen and CO
2 levels may fertilise
these systems (Milne and van Oijen 2005), any net positive
effects in total carbon sequestration may be lost through increased
soil respiration or drought (Gough et al. 2008, Noormets et al.
2008, Piao et al. 2008). Under growth scenarios, there is likely to
be reductions in carbon sequestration owing to high system
respiration and reduced production (Sitch et al. 2003).
2.2.4 Boreal Forests
Current marginal expansion of the boreal forest northwards has
been reported, consistent with pre-dictions (Lloyd 2005, Caccianga
and Payette 2007, Soja et al. 2007, Devi et al. 2008, MacDonald et
al. 2008), but expansion may be slower than expected because of
poor soils, fires, and oceanic cooling ef-fects (MacDonald et al.
2008, Payette et al. 2008). The growing season has lengthened (Soja
et al. 2007, Kellomäki et al. 2008), and increased growth has been
found for some species (Briffa et al. 2008). For other species,
temperature threshold effects and important interactions with
moisture may occur and
affect individual species responses to climate change (Brooks et
al. 1998, Wilmking et al. 2004, Kellomäki et al. 2008). Fire was
predicted to increase (Flan-nigan et al. 1998) and has been
confirmed in North America and Russia (Gillett et al. 2004, Soja et
al. 2007). Warming climate has been implicated as a cause for
extensive outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus
ponderosae) in western Canada and the USA (Taylor et al. 2006), and
of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in Alaska and
northwest-ern Canada (Berg et al. 2006).
The boreal biome is expected to warm more than other forest
biomes (Christensen et al. 2007). Under both growth and stable
climate change sce-narios, Fischlin et al. (2007) and Sitch et al.
(2003) reported predicted broad gains northward for boreal forests,
although with conversion to temperate for-ests and grasslands at
southern and central areas of Canada and Russia. This is supported
in Price and Scott (2006) for Canada, where the biome is ex-pected
to increase in area under the growth scenario. Kellomäki et al.
(2008) modelled a 44% increase in production from the boreal biome
in Finland under the growth scenario.
Soja et al. (2007) summarised published pre-dicted changes for
the boreal forest as: increased fire, increased infestation,
northward expansion, and altered stand composition and structure.
To that list we add less old-growth forest and conversion of
southern-central dry forests to grasslands (Thomp-son et al. 1998,
Price and Scott 2006). Flannigan et al. (2005) suggests that the
area of boreal forests burned in Canada may increase by 74–118% by
the end of this century, depending on scenario, but also depending
on the frequency of drought years (Fauria and Johnson 2008). Other
estimates suggest increases of more than five times current levels
in some areas under growth climate change scenarios (Balshi et al.
2008).
Levels of infestation are uncertain but expected to rise owing
to drought and warm conditions (Ward and Masters 2007, Fischlin et
al. 2009). The tree line should continue to shift northwards, but
new com-munities may develop owing to differential response
capacity among species (MacDonald et al. 2008). Other threats
include the potential for severe insect infestation, and loss of
forest cover in southern areas in response to drought and fire.
The estimated total carbon stored in boreal forests is much
higher than previously thought and, depend-ing on how the
accounting is done, is likely in the range of 25–33% of the total
global carbon (Bhatti et al. 2003, Bradshaw et al. 2009), much of
it as peat. Climate change may result in increased emission of
greenhouse gases through fire and decomposition (Kurz et al. 2008).
Greenhouse gases emitted from all Canadian forest fires are
estimated to increase from 162 Tg/year of CO
2 equivalent in the 1xCO
2 sce-
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nario to 313 Tg/year of CO2 equivalent in the 3xCO
2
scenario, including contributions from CO2, CH
4,
and N2O (nitrous oxide) (Amiro et al. 2009). While
productivity is expected to rise, net carbon losses are likely
to occur owing to increased disturbances and higher respiration
(Kurz et al. 2008), depending to a large degree on rates of
disturbance and forest management actions (Chen et al. 2008).
2.3 Adaptation for Forests and Forest-Dependent People
In the context of changing economic, social, and global
political environments, adaptation to climate change adds new
challenges to forest stakeholders (defined as people who depend
directly on forests or participate in their management, such as
forest communities, forest managers and companies,
con-servationists, forest policy makers, development organisations,
and scientists). The need to include adaptation into forest
management and policies is becoming increasingly recognised by
these stake-holders, especially in temperate and boreal areas. In
particular, forest stakeholders face challenges related to
understanding vulnerability, identifying adapta-tion options, and
implementing adaptation.
2.3.1 Understanding Vulnerability
Understanding the vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent
people is a first step towards designing effective adaptation.
Vulnerability assessments in-clude analysing the determinants of
vulnerability and prioritising interventions for reducing the
vul-nerability of forests and forest-dependent people. Two main
approaches to vulnerability assessments are generally applied to
social-ecological systems: “impact-based approaches” (or impact
studies) and “vulnerability-based approaches.” Impact-based
ap-proaches start with assessing the potential impacts of climate
change on forest or forest people under different climate
scenarios. Vulnerability-based ap-proaches start with assessing
social sensitivity and adaptive capacity to respond to stresses
and, if neces-sary, combine this information with impact studies
(Kelly and Adger 2000). With vulnerability-based approaches,
vulnerability is determined by the ex-isting capacity rather than
by any predicted future impacts (Ribot 2009).
For understanding forest vulnerability, many impact studies are
available at global or continental scales (e.g., Scholze et al.
2006). However, the coarse resolution of these studies limits their
usefulness for informing decisions on adaptation measures at a
local
scale. Impact studies can facilitate decision-making if they are
conducted at a relevant scale (e.g., national or sub-national) and
if they assess uncertainties (e.g., by considering several climate
scenarios) (see Box 2.2). It is also important for impact studies
to address the factors that enhance or limit the adaptive capacity
of forests, such as the process of species migration and the role
of landscape connectivity in adaptation (Pearson 2006).
To facilitate adaptation processes for forest-dependent people,
vulnerability-based approaches seem more adequate than impact
studies (Burton et al. 2002). Most impact-based approaches have
failed to facilitate social adaptation processes be-cause the
future of both climate and societies is un-certain, because climate
scenarios do not necessarily capture the local climatic
specificities and relevant variables for local people (e.g.,
extreme climatic events), and because impact studies operate at a
time horizon much further than the ones relevant for people and
decision-makers (Mitchell and Hulme 1999, Burton et al. 2002). Some
authors argue that vulnerability-based approaches are more likely
to identify policy-relevant recommendations for social adaptation
because they address immediate needs and are consistent with a
precautionary approach to climate change. Reducing social
vulnerability to current stresses should help people adapt to the
fu-ture climate whatever the future will be (Heltberg et al.
2009).
Impact-based and vulnerability-based approach-es are
complementary in the process of planning the adaptation of forests
and forest communities. If attention is paid only to reducing
current vulner-ability in general, the conclusions could easily
lead to recommendations related to a conventional de-velopment
approach (e.g., with more education and equity, more stable and
diversified livelihoods, or better infrastructure) without
addressing future cli-mate risks. While reducing vulnerability to
current exposures is relevant, it may not be sufficient for
addressing future risks (Lim and Spanger-Siegfried 2005). Impact
studies give insights into the potential risks that forests would
face in the future and to which societies should be empowered to
adapt.
Some issues are important to consider when as-sessing
vulnerability. First, cross-scale issues are cru-cial. Adaptation
is fundamentally local (Adger et al. 2005a, Agrawal and Perrin
2008), but is influenced by factors from higher scales (e.g.,
national policies or management at the landscape scale). Assessing
the vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent people therefore
requires that such cross-scale factors be taken into account.
Second, time horizons must be relevant for the decision to be taken
(e.g., long term for a long rotation plantation, or more short term
for local social adaptation) (Füssel 2007). Third, as the
vulnerability of forest people to climate change
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Trevor Murdock
Favouring the establishment of tree species that will be suited
to future climate is an important adap-tive response (see Section
2.3). It is challenging to make use of projected future forest
impacts in vulnerability assessments because of large
uncer-tainties. The case study in this box illustrates how
uncertain projections may be used for adaptation in a temperate
forest setting. The example is for spruce in British Columbia,
Canada.
The resolution (~350 km × 350 km) of GCM (Global Circulation
Model) projections is too coarse for assessing impacts in British
Columbia due to large climatic gradients over small distances.
Simple empirical downscaling to high resolution (~4 km × 4 km) was
performed by applying pro-jected climate change from GCMs to high
reso-lution historical climatology (Wang et al. 2006). Tree species
suitability was approximated using climate envelope techniques
(Murdock and Flower 2009).
The difference in projected suitability between climate
scenarios in the “growth” and “stable” emissions clusters is
considerable. With higher
Figure 2.3 Projected spruce suitability for 2080s in British
Columbia: (left) Average for “growth” (A2) scenarios from five
GCMs. Light green areas were suitable in both 1961–1990 and in the
2080s, dark green areas become suitable, and dark brown areas lose
suitability by 2080s (centre); same for “stable” scenarios (B1).
The frame on the right shows the percent of projections from a
combined set of ten GCMs following both growth and stable
scenarios; dark green indicates agreement between models that the
climate will be suitable and brown that it will not be suitable.
Reprinted with the permission of Pacific Climate Impacts
Consortium.
depends on the state of their forests, and the vulner-ability of
forests depends on the people’s decisions, vulnerability assessment
should integrate so