Forest Regeneration Trends in Canada: The Role of Dinosaurs, Political Correctness, and Emerging Pressures Robert G. Wagner University of Maine 58 th Forest Industry Lecture University of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta Thursday, November 8, 2007
Forest Regeneration Trends in Canada:
The Role of Dinosaurs, Political Correctness, and
Emerging PressuresRobert G. Wagner
University of Maine
58th Forest Industry Lecture University of AlbertaEdmonton, Alberta
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Wangari Maathai - 2004 Nobel Peace Prize for “for her contribution to sustainable development, democracy and peace.” Founder of Kenya’s Green Belt Movement that mobilized poor women to plant 30 million trees over thirty years.
How are we doing with forest regeneration in Canada and the US?
November 7, 2007 4
Tree Planting and Direct Seeding in Canada (1975 – 2004)
Source: National Forestry Database Program, Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and Canadian Forest Service
November 7, 2007 5
U.S. Tree Planting by Landowner Type (1928-1996)
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500
1928
1931
1935
1938
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
Year
Hec
tare
s (x
1000
)
Tribal
State & Local Government
Other Federal
Nonindustrial Private
National Forest
Forest Industry
ConservationReserveProgram
(CRP)
SoilBank
Program
Source: U.S. Forest Planting Report (USDA, FS, Washington, DC), and recent data in Tree Planters' Notes, Volume 49, No. 2.
November 7, 2007 6
Site Preparation Trends in Canada (1975 – 2004)
Source: National Forestry Database Program, Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and Canadian Forest Service
November 7, 2007 7
Stand Tending Trends in Canada (1975 – 2004)
Source: National Forestry Database Program, Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and Canadian Forest Service
Did harvest patterns change?
November 7, 2007 9
Harvesting Trends in Canada (1975 – 2004)
85% clearcutting
Source: National Forestry Database Program, Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and Canadian Forest Service
November 7, 2007 10
U.S. Tree Planting and Wood Harvest (1976 – 2001)
Source: USDA Forest Service, FIA State Reports dated 1980-1992. USDA Forest Service, Forest Statistics of the United States, 1992.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year
Acr
es (x
1000
)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Har
vest
vol
ume
(x10
00 ft
3 )
Clearcuttting (3.7 MM acres)
38%
Partial cutting (6.1 MM acres)
62%
Mean annual harvest1980s-90s
November 7, 2007 11
Proportion of Harvest Area on National Forest Lands by Harvest Method (1984 – 2003)
Source: USDA Forest Service.
Clearcut
Shelterwood Cuts
Partial cuts
05
1015202530354045505560657075
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Perc
ent
November 7, 2007 12
Harvest area on U.S. National Forest System lands by Harvest Method (1984 – 2003)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Thou
sand
acr
es
ClearcutShelterwood CutsPartial cutsTotal
U.S. National Forest has 46% of U.S. softwood supply
Source: USDA Forest Service.
November 7, 2007 13
U.S. Softwood Imports From Canada (1970 - 2050)
Source: Haynes, R.W. 2003. An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States: 1952 to 2050. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-560.
Regeneration activity as a proportion of clearcut
harvesting?
November 7, 2007 15
Ratio of Canadian Planting and Seeding Area to Clearcut Harvest Area (1975-2005)
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Plan
ting
+ se
edin
g ar
ea :
Har
vest
are
a Planting + Seeding
-25%
Source: National Forestry Database Program, Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and Canadian Forest Service
Less than half of Canadian clearcuts are being artificially regenerated
November 7, 2007 16
Ratio of U.S. Planted Area to Clearcut Harvest Area (1976-1996)
Assumption: based on mean clearcut harvest area 1980-92; Annual harvest area over period was 9.8 million acres, 38% of harvest area was clearcutting.
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996Year
Plan
ting
area
: C
lear
cut a
rea
-29%
Source: Forest Resources of the United States, 2002. Gen. Tech Rep. NC-241. St. Paul MN: U.S. Dept. of Agric.; Forest Service; 2004 141p.; U.S. Forest Planting Report (USDA, FS, Washington, DC), and recent data in Tree Planters' Notes, Volume 49, No. 2.
November 7, 2007 17
Ratio of Canadian Site Preparation and Tending Area to Clearcut Harvest Area (1975-2005)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
SIP
or T
endi
ng a
rea
: Cle
arcu
t are
a
Site PreparationTending
Source: National Forestry Database Program, Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and Canadian Forest Service
Less than 1/3 of Canadian clearcuts are being site prepared and tended
November 7, 2007 18
Survey of 6-8 year old Nova Scotia plantations
established without herbicides
Surveyed 33% of the plantation area established during 1998-2000
Why did artificial regeneration, site preparation, and
tending fall from favor?
November 7, 2007 20
Potential Reasons• Artificial regeneration not as successful as
hoped
• Natural regeneration found to be adequate and for less cost
• Changes in harvesting practice reduced need for artificial regeneration
• Reduced commitment by government and private landowners to pay for regeneration
• Reduced advocacy by foresters for regeneration investments
What happened to forest managers and governments ~1990?
November 7, 2007 22
1990 Forestry Paradigm Shift
• Sustainable development
• Biodiversity
• Ecosystem management
• Old growth
• Threatened and endangered species
• Landscape ecology
• Emulating natural disturbance
November 7, 2007 23
1990 Forestry Paradigm Shift
• Sustainability became forest policy across Canada
• Forestry schools begin changing their names
• USFS starts rapid decline in forest harvesting
• Natural disturbance is better than forest management
November 7, 2007 24
Stigmatized Reforestation Technology
• Herbicides
• Insecticides
• Genetic improvement
• Site preparation
• Fertilizers
• Plantations
PoliticallyIncorrect
November 7, 2007 25
From Eugene, Oregon newspaper in the late 1970s
Technological Stigmatization of
Herbicides
Significant Change in Reforestation Behavior ~1990
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996Year
Plan
ting
area
: C
lear
cut a
rea
-29%
Canada
U.S.
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Plan
ting
+ se
edin
g ar
ea :
Har
vest
are
a Planting + Seeding
-25%
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Plan
ting
+ se
edin
g ar
ea :
Har
vest
are
a Planting + Seeding
-25%
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
SIP
or T
endi
ng a
rea
: Cle
arcu
t are
a
Site PreparationTending
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
SIP
or T
endi
ng a
rea
: Cle
arcu
t are
a
Site PreparationTending
What factors are likely to influence
regeneration trends in the coming years?
November 7, 2007 28
Emergent pressures likely to force forest managers to more critically
evaluate current regeneration trends
• End of cheap oil
• Wood supply demand & shortages
• Global markets
• Climate change & carbon markets
• Invasive plants
• High-yield conservation
November 7, 2007 30
M. King Hubbert. 1971. Energy and Power, A Scientific American Book, pg. 39
Hubbert Peak World Oil Production
Oil production has already peaked in non-OPEC and non-former Soviet Union countries
Most models project a peak within 10 years
November 7, 2007 31
World Petroleum Consumption (1960 – 2025)
Source: R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek, and R. Wendling. 2005. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management.
November 7, 2007 32
November 7, 2007 34
Electric Power & Renewable Energy Certificates
Renewable Energy Certificate
1 REC
Power From a Renewable
Energy Source
1 MWH
Electricity
1 MWH
$$$$$$$$
November 7, 2007 35
Mill Conversion to Add Forest Bioproducts
November 7, 2007 36
National Forest Biomass Potential
Source: Perlack, R..D., et al. 2005. Biomass as feedstock for A bioenergy and bioproducts industry: The technical feasibility of A billion-ton annual supply. Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
November 7, 2007 37
November 7, 2007 38
Woody Biomass Feedstocks
Low value wood from forests can be harvested sustainably
Large quantities of wood residues from primary and secondary wood product manufacturers are available
Willow biomass crops can be grown on under utilized open land
Biomass harvesting of small and poor quality trees
Biomass harvesting of small and poor quality trees
Wood Supply Demand and
Shortages
November 7, 2007 41
China’s Gross Domestic Product(Exchange Rate Valuation)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bill
ion
s of
19
87
U.S
. Dol
lars
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2002.
November 7, 2007 42
China’s Wood Importation Trends
Source: www.FAO.org
Wood Products Import to China (1997-2006)
Wood Products Import to China Projections
November 7, 2007 43
Human population & Wood Consumption
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Hum
an p
opul
atio
n (b
illio
ns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Woo
d co
nsum
ptio
n (b
illio
n m
3 )
Human population
Wood consumptionProjected
Need to increase global harvest by 35 million m3 each year to meet projected
population growth at current level of per capita global consumption
November 7, 2007 44
Declining Forestland and Increasing Population
Source: David South, Auburn University, derived from 1997 FAO data. Current rate of decline is about 0.3%/year. Historical estimates of forest land from Richards (1990).
1990 to 2000• 94 million ha of forestland lost
worldwide • Area lost > Venezuela• 0.22% loss per year
(FAO 2001)
November 7, 2007 45
Declining Forestland, Increasing Population, and Wood Demand
*assuming a world population of 10 billion and per capita annual wood consumption of 0.6 m3.
Source: Sutton, W.R.J. 1999. Does the world need plantations? Paper presented at intersessional expert meeting on the role of planted forests, April 6-9, 1999, Santiago, Chile.
November 7, 2007 46
Increases in wood yield per hectare required with increasing population and shrinking forestland
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0
2000 2050 - current forestland(3.87 billion ha)
2050 - projectedforestland (3 billion ha)
Woo
d yi
eld
requ
ired
(m3 /h
a/yr
)
Global consumption levelN. American consumption level
Assumes world population of 9 billion in 2050, global consumption = 0.58 m3/yr, N. American consumption rate = 3X global average, Rate of forestland decline = 0.30%/yr.
Will need to increase yields
by 50% to meet global
population needs with
current forestland
Will need 2X yields to meet
global population at current rate of
forestland decline
Will need to increase yields 5X if global
population consumes like N. Americans
November 7, 2007 47
Increases in Southern Pine Yields Over Time
02468
101214161820
Naural stands(1950s)
Firstplantations
(1970s)
Currentplantations
(1990s)
Futureplantations
(2010s)
Woo
d gr
owth
(ton
s/A
/yr)
0.9 cords/A/yr5.2 m3/ha/yr
1.7 cords/A/yr10.4 m3/ha/yr
3.5 cords/A/yr20.7 m3/ha/yr
6.7 cords/A/yr41.4 m3/ha/yr
Stocking controlRelease
NurseriesSite prep.Herb controlfertilizationPCT
Clonal forestryGenetic engineeringNutrition mgmt.Optimum silv.
Source: Phil Dougherty, Westvaco. 1999.
November 7, 2007 48
JD Irving Lands and Production Facilities
November 7, 2007 49
JD Irving Black Brook District
November 7, 2007 50
Stand Yield Impact of Intensive Silviculture in the Northern Forest
Source: Blake Brunsdon, JD Irving, NESAF meeting, Oct 2007
November 7, 2007 51
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
2057
2062
2067
2072
2077
Year
Ann
ual h
arve
st le
vel (
m3 x
100
0) Current Silv with CthinCurrent Silv - No CThinNo Future SilvNo Silv Ever
Effect of various silvicultural scenarios on spruce-sir annual harvest levels on J.D. Irving’s 190,000 ha Black Brook District in New Brunswick (2002-2077)
Source: Blake Brunsdon, J.D. Irving
Harvest Levels on J.D. Irving’s Black Brook District
2.5 X4.7 X
November 7, 2007 52
How do JDI yields compare?
Source: Blake Brunsdon, JD Irving, NESAF meeting, Oct 2007
November 7, 2007 53
JDI Black Brook District Landscape:Past, Present, and Future
Etheridge, D.A., D.A. MacLean, R.G. Wagner, and J.S. Wilson. 2006. Effects of intensive forest management on stand and landscape characteristics in northern New Brunswick, Canada (1945–2027). Landscape Ecology 21: 509–524.
Etheridge, D.A., D.A. MacLean, R.G. Wagner, and J.S. Wilson. 2005. Changes in landscape composition and stand structure from 1945–2002 on an industrial forest in New Brunswick, Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35: 1965–1977.
November 7, 2007 54
How did the Black Brook change over 60 yrs?
• More Hardwood – 1945 10% to 2002 25%
total MW decreased from 28 to 18%
• More young stands
shifted from a mature fir dominated forest to a younger spruce dominated one
much less (~90%) old SW and old MW stands
• Smaller stands
1945 54% area in patches >1000 ha, vs. 2002 58% in patches < 100 ha
no. patches: 1,000 in 1945, 5,200 in 2002
• Less balsam fir
• Denser stands
+100-300 stems/ha, +4-7 m2/ha in 2002
more large trees (40-50 >30 and 4-17 >45 cm dbh)
Global Wood Market
November 7, 2007 56
South AfricaEucalyptus plantations
Eucalyptus dunniiAge: 4.5 yearsLocation: PietermaritzburgDensity: 1,600 tph = 646 tpaSite Quality: MediumVolume: At 3.5 yrs, 123 m3/ha = 1,758 ft3/AProductivity: 35 m3/ha/yr = 502 ft3/A/yr
November 7, 2007 57
South African Tree Planters
Wages: 50 Rands per day = $7.35 CDN= $7.40 US
Lower taxesLower energy costsLower regulatory risk
Lower taxesLower energy costsLower regulatory risk
November 7, 2007 58
Global Forest
November 7, 2007 59
Global Market
November 7, 2007 60
Potential Forest Productivity
November 7, 2007 61
Global Wood Markets, Forest, & Production Capability
= Highest productivity forest area
= Forest area
??
Future of lower productivity northern forests closest to best markets??
?
Russian softwood
supply
November 7, 2007 62
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
Oct-02
Jan-0
3Apr-
03Ju
l-03
Oct-03
Jan-0
4Apr-
04Ju
l-04
Oct-04
Jan-0
5Apr-
05Ju
l-05
Oct-05
Jan-0
6Apr-
06Ju
l-06
Oct-06
Jan-0
7Apr-
07Ju
l-07
Oct-07
Record High Canadian Dollar
US:CDN Currency Exchange
Oct 2002: $0.63 USD
Oct 2006: $0.885 USD
OCT 2007: $1.01 USD
NOTE: For every 1 centthe Canadian dollar increasesMaritime lumber producers lose $6 million
Source: Blake Brunsdon, JD Irving, NESAF meeting, Oct 2007
Climate Change and Carbon Sequestration
November 7, 2007 64
Scientists Confirm Alarming Trend!!
Forests for Carbon Credits?
http://www.cdmwatch.org/files/forestfraud.pdf
November 7, 2007 66
Tri-Issue Alignment
National Security (Middle East)
Economy (cost of petroleum)
Environmental (climate change)
Invasive Exotic Plants
• Wells National Estuarine Research Reserve in coastal Maine• Regeneration exclusion by Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii)• Overstory breaking up and without intervention will progress toward
an invasive exotic brushfield
High-Yield Conservation of
Biodiversity
High-Yield Conservation Declaration
“…. declare that additional high-yield practices, based on advances in biology, ecology, chemistry, and technology, are critically needed in agriculture and forestry not only to achieve the goal of improving the human condition for all peoples but also the simultaneous preservation of the natural environment and its biodiversity through the conservation of wild areas and natural habitat.”
Founders of High-Yield Conservation Declaration
Norman Borlaug, PhDNobel Peace Prize winner,Father of the Green Revolution
Patrick Moore, PhD Co-founder of Greenpeace,Forestry advocate
Oscar Arias, PhDNobel Peace Prize winner,Former President of Costa Rica
James LovelockIndependent Scientist, author of "The Gaia Hypothesis"
The Honorable George McGovern Former US Senator,UN "Ambassador to the Hungry"
Rudy Boschwitz Former US Senator,Advisory Chair, Center for Global Food Issues
Eugène LapointePresident of the World Conservation Trust,Former Secretary-General of CITES
Per Pinstrup-Andersen, PhD2001 World Food Prize winner,Director of the International Food Policy Research Institute
November 7, 2007 72
Land saved globally from high-yield agriculture
Source: Borlaug, N.E. 2000. The green revolution revisited and the road ahead. Special 30th Anniversary Lecture, The Norwegian Nobel Institute, Oslo, Norway. September 8, 2000. (www.nobel.se).
3-fold more farmland
would have been needed
by 1999
1.2 billion ha more land
available for wildlife habitat and biodiversity
conservation
November 7, 2007 73
U.S. land saved in 2000 due to gains in agriculture yields since 1920
If corn, wheat, and soybean yields were held at 1920 levels, 3.7-fold more land (338 million ha) would have been needed in 2000
10 largest western states
1920 = U.S. farmed 347 million acres (140 million ha)2000 = U.S. farmed 308 million acres (124 million ha)39 million fewer acres (15.7 million ha) farmed
November 7, 2007 74
www.highyieldconservation.org
Local Variation
November 7, 2007 76
BC & AB Mountain Pine Beetle Kill
November 7, 2007 77
Effect of emergent pressures on regeneration silviculture
• End of cheap oil
• Wood supply demand & shortage
• Global markets
• Climate change & carbon markets
• Invasive plants
• High-yield conservation
?
?
?
?
November 7, 2007 78
Conclusions• Successful regeneration is the first principle
of sustainable forestry
• Forestry profession needs to seriously examine trends, implications, and obligations of reforestation in light of global challenges
• Reevaluate/Reject the 1990 “Chinese cultural revolution” in forestry
• Bring back the dinosaurs! They know stuff.
• Counseling for those fearful of being politically incorrectPolitically
Incorrect