Foresight Part 1

ForesightPart 1

What is it?

Why is it important?

What does it do?

What is foresight?

“Foresight: The action of looking forward”

The Oxford English Dictionary

“Chance favours the prepared mind”

Louis Pasteur, 1874

Foresight’s ‘deceptive’ world

The problem

• “Science seeks the laws only, but foresight requires in addition the relevant facts from which the future is to emerge. Of the two tasks for foresight, this selection amid the welter is the more difficult”

• Alfred North Whitehead, 1933

Why is foresight important?

• Importance arises because foresight:– Prevents the ossification of modes of

thought that otherwise lead societies ‘sleepwalking’ into the future

– Helps to create a vibrant society in all the six STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics and Human Values) themes

What does foresight do?

• Foresight Identifies new ideas and possibilities for society in the future in the STEEPV themes

• It responds to Whitehead’s contention• When done systemically (as it should be)

enables the ideas generated to be placed in a systems framework that displays their context and content

Let’s now see how!

What we will look at

• Different kinds of foresight• Knowledge • Behavioural influences• Where foresight intervenes• ‘Genericness’ and ‘Criticality’

An uncomfortable marriage

• Tested information• Untested subjective opinion• Influence of established ways of

thinking on understanding unfamiliar information

Different kinds of foresightReal foresight-Typical of entrepreneurs and similar people-Requires independence of mind-Economic independence helps-Risky and contentious ideas-Strong personal commitment

Rediscovery-Typical of institutional foresight-Relatively uncontentious-Tends to confirm established ideas-Favoured by ‘establishment people’ and committees-Relatively ‘risk free’

Real foresight versus Rediscovery

• Real foresight is concerned with new and unusual ideas typified by inventions, scientific breakthroughs and new social arrangements - the people concerned are ‘lone rangers’ and often spend their lives this way

• Rediscovery is typical of people who are new to ‘futures thinking’ or relatively so, and at first spend most of their time ‘rediscovering’ issues, trends, etc. that others first discovered, earlier (sometimes decades earlier!) - this accounts for the relatively ‘risk free’ nature of institutional foresight

Use of expert opinion

• Despite a growing trend to discount expertise

all foresight depends on it to:– Create a sense of credibility– Draw on the substantive knowledge of

individuals with their:• Abilities to anticipate future developments

in their field• Imaginative extensions of their knowledge

into interrelationships with that of others

Who is an expert and why use them?

• What kind of person is an ‘expert’?

• How do you recog-nise one?

• Why do you make use of ‘experts’ and their knowledge?

Characteristics of ‘experts’

• Experience indicates three important characteristics for expertise

– Substantive knowledge - knowing what you are talking about

– The ability to cope when asked to extend that knowledge into the uncertain future (assessing ability - though it is really synthesizing ability)

– Imagination

Graduation of subjective knowledge & the expert ‘mind’

• Subjective opinion

• Synthesis• Synthesizers• Substantive• Speculation• Conjecture

Self-assessment of expertise

• Evolution of criteria since late 60’s

• Lipinski & Loveridge, 1978

• Loveridge, Georghiou & Nedeva, 1995

• Unfamiliar - no knowledge (1)• Casually acquainted - bar-

room knowledge (2)• Familiar - knowledge but not

in depth (3)• Knowledgeable - growing

stature or recent expert with new responsibilities (4)

• Expert - recognized mastery (5)

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Characters

• In essence the

– Person or small group with ‘real foresight’ are not concerned whether other people agree with them, whereas

– Those associated with institutional foresight often have positions to protect; are conscious of their position and tend to be rather heavily bound by preconceived ideas

• These characteristics can and do have an influence on the underlying traits of a foresight programme

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Foresight and Mitchell’s modification ofMaslow’s Hierarchy of needs

Real foresight tendsto associated here

Institutional foresighttends to be associatedhere

So where does foresight intervene?

Intersection of human needs, science and technology and forecasting

Formal Informal

Accidental

Intentional

Different origins of Foresight study

Methods

Information

Purpose

Audience

Horses for courses ordon’t enter an F1 car for the world

rally championship

F o r m a l I n f o r m a l

A c c i d e n t a l

I n t e n t i o n a l

M e t h o d s

I n f o r m a t i o n

P u r p o s e

A u d i e n c e

Relationships

Pre-event TA/EIA

Actions to implement chosen model

Models of

the future

Post-event

evaluation Post-event

TA

Hindsight

Foresight

Monitoring

Pre-event

evaluation

Pre-event

evaluation Pre-event TA/EIA

Models of the future

Policy defined

• Policy may be defined as a set of– Creative or enabling limits, and– Restrictive limits

• Policy begins with visions– Creative and restrictive limits define

the boundaries of policy• what can be controlled• what can be partially controlled• what cannot be controlled

Value/normset for eachindividual

Value/normset for group

Value/norm span for any one individual

Influence of values/norms

Critical technologies

• According to the RAND Corporation a “Critical technology is generic and pre-competitive and …. is useful in many applications …. to produce a wide array of returns not tied to any specific application ..”

• It is not concerned with national security

‘Genericness’ and ‘Criticality’

• Generic technologies or ideas are:– Those that underpin

many others at higher levels

– Standard Industrial Classification can be a useful starting point

• Criteria for critical tec-hnologies are:– Policy relevant, re-

moving the question “Relevant to what?”

– Discriminating bet-ween what is and is not critical

– Likely to yield re-producible results

Two definitions of criticality

• Generic and pre-competitive, producing wide returns not tied to a specific application; likely to have synergetic or catalytic effects elsewhere

• Rate determining factor for specific applications gives explicit response to ‘Critical to what?’ but is not universally applicable

• Criticality is not concerned with national security

The Endof Part 1