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FORESIGHT

Ashvin Parekh - Managing Partner, APAS

Season’s greetings, We have Ms. Chanda Kochhar – MD & CEO, ICICI Bank discussing the future of Indian banking. Due to substantial demographic advantage and a fresh emphasis on infrastructure and manufacturing the financial services will expand at a higher rate. Technology, intensified competition and regulations will play a key role in shaping the banking industry. We are thankful to Ms. Kochhar for providing her valuable insight for the newsletter readers. BFSI Vision and APAS have instituted CSR awards for the BFSI sector. Eminent jury members – Mr. A. K. Agarwala, Mr. Y. M. Deosthalee, Mr. Deepak Satwalekar, Dr. R. B. Barman, Mr. M. V. Nair, Mr. Sundar Rajan and Mr. M. V. Tanksale have evaluated the nominations. The awards are proposed to be given away to the winners on December 18th, 2014 by Smt. Rajashree Ji Birla at BSE Hall, Mumbai. On the macroeconomic front, the PMI index for services declined to 50.0 from 51.6 in the previous month. IIP during the month decreased by 1.4%. On an annualized basis consumer durables and capital goods decreased by 15% and 11.3% respectively. Inflation indicators suggest an appreciable mellow down. The CPI was at 6.46% and WPI declined sharply to 2.38%. Vegetables and food indices suggest a sharp reduction. In the insurance sector there were two noticeable matters during the month. The select committee of the Upper House (Rajya Sabha) is examining the possible consolidation of 4 public sector general insurance companies. In the investment guidelines for the insurance companies, equity derivatives may find a place soon.

We welcome your inputs and thoughts and encourage you to share them with us.

Ashvin Parekh

Volume No. 10 October 2014

May, 2014 December 2, 2013

Table of Contents

Guest’s Column

The Future of Indian Banking by

Ms. Chanda Kochhar – MD & CEO

– ICICI Bank

Economy

PMI update – Oct

Core sector update – Sep

IIP update – Aug

Inflation update – Aug

Insurance Sector

House panel looking at merger

proposal of 4 PSU insurers

Irda Panel Favors 49% FDI in

Insurance Intermediaries

IRDA looking to allow insurers

to deal with equity derivatives

Capital Markets

FPIs Can Invest in 1-Year Gov.

Bonds under $5-Billion Limit

Infrastructure Sector

Asian Nations launch $100 bn Infrastructure Bank

Smart City project to be developed under PPP model

Capital Market - Snapshot Economic Data Snapshot

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www.ap-as.com

The Future of Indian Banking

Ms. Chanda Kochhar – MD & CEO – ICICI Bank

The last two decades have been a period of

phenomenal growth for Indian banking.

Financial intermediation by the banking sector

has deepened manifold. Credit as a proportion

of GDP grew from around 20-25% during the

1990s to 53% in fiscal 2014. Bank deposits

similarly grew from 33% of GDP in 1990 to 68%

in fiscal 2014. The key drivers of this rapid

growth were: India’s demographic profile & the

aspirations of the consuming class; increased

investment in the infrastructure & industrial

sectors; extensive use of technology; and

greater competition. This growth has taken

place under the purview of a prudent and

pro-active regulatory environment.

In the years ahead, these forces of change will

intensify and accelerate. The combination of

India’s fundamental strengths and a strong,

growth-oriented government will create

significant opportunities for banks.

India enjoys a demographic advantage

in terms of a young population and a

dependency ratio that is expected to

decline for the next three decades. The

expanding workforce, rising incomes

and increasing urbanization will give

rise to greater demand for financial

services.

India has vast potential for investment in

both infrastructure and manufacturing.

The infrastructure investment potential is

well-known, and with the right policy &

administrative environment, this

investment would be inherently viable as

it would meet an existing deficit rather

than just pump-prime the economy. The

national initiative to develop India as a

global manufacturing hub through the

“Make In India” campaign will create

further financing opportunities for banks,

as also indirectly support growth in

consumer lending through job creation.

Technology will continue to change

rapidly and adapting to the change has to

be a continuous effort for banks.

Technology is creating new platforms in

areas such as payments, and bringing

about the convergence of financial

services and social media. Greater

connectivity and digitization are giving

organizations the opportunity to improve

efficiency as well as enhance the

customer experience.

Competition in banking in India will

intensify, both through expansion of

existing players and the entry of new

players. The growth potential of the

market and the opportunity to create

new business models by leveraging

technology will attract new players to the

sector.

Regulation will continue to play a key role

in influencing the evolution of the sector,

with its emphasis on higher capital &

liquidity, early recognition & proactive

handling of asset quality stress and fair &

transparent dealings with customers.

Guest Column

To sum up, the potential for growth is vast and

the drivers of change are many. As Niall

Ferguson wrote in in his book, The Ascent of

Money: “there really is no such thing as ‘the

future’, singular. There are only multiple,

unforeseeable futures, which will never lose

their capacity to take us by surprise.” What we

do know is that there are exciting times ahead,

with diverse growth opportunities driven by

both investment & consumption, emerging new

business models driven by technology, greater

competition and an increasingly stringent

regulatory environment. Success will come to

those players who are able to anticipate change

and proactively leverage the opportunities it

brings with it.

PMI update – Oct

Service PMI

Growth in India’s dominant service industry

stalled last month as new orders came in at a

weaker pace, adding to pressure on the

government to drive through economic

reforms, a business survey showed last month.

The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI),

compiled by Markit, fell to 50 in October from

September’s 51.6, the lowest in six months and

right on the break-even point between growth

and contraction.

New business growth slowed a five-month low

but continued to expand at a modest pace.

Still PMI showed services firms were only able

to increase their prices a bit faster last month,

pointing to sluggish consumer demand. The

prices charged sub-index only nudged up to

50.7 from September’s near four-year low of

50.6.

Manufacturing PMI

India's manufacturing sector output picked up

modestly during October, driven by strong

demand conditions and rise in new order flows.

The headline HSBC India Purchasing Managers'

Index (PMI), a composite gauge designed to

give a single-figure snapshot of manufacturing

business conditions, rebounded from

September's nine-month low of 51.0 to 51.6 in

October. Amid reports of stronger demand,

production at Indian manufacturers rose for the

twelfth successive month in October.

Manufacturing activity picked up modestly amid

stronger output and new order flows,

particularly from overseas clients. New business

also increased for the twelfth month in a row in

October, largely owing to the general

improvements in demand situation. In addition,

export orders received by Indian manufacturers

rose in October, extending the current

sequence of growth to 13 months. However,

firms continued to trim purchases and refrained

from aggressive inventory accumulation, the

report said. On prices, it said that inflationary

pressures remained muted in October. While

input prices eased further, the improvement in

growth allowed firms to raise margins by

increasing output prices slightly.

Economy

Core Sector Update – Sep

Activity in India’s eight core sectors, as

measured the core index, increased 1.9%

year-over-year in the month of September.

Compared to this, the index had grown by 5.8%

in the previous month.

The eight sectors, which contribute about 38%

to the closely-watched index of industrial

production (IIP) data, are coal (weightage:

4.38%), crude (5.22%), natural gas (1.71%),

petroleum (5.94%), fertilizers (1.25%), steel

(6.68%), cement (2.41%) and electricity

(10.32%). Sectors that led the overall output

growth were coal (up 7.2%) and the

heavyweight electricity (up 3.8%), apart from

steel and cement (up 4% and 3.2%,

respectively). While activity in crude oil (-1.1%),

natural gas (-6.2%), petroleum (-2.5%) and

fertilizers (-11.6%). Output in all four sectors

had contracted in the previous month as well.

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) update – Aug

Sources: APAS BRT, IIP for July has been rvised down to 0.41

The index of industrial production (IIP) rose

0.4% in August, with both capital goods and

consumer goods logging negative growth. IIP for

July was also revised downwards to 0.41% from

the provisional estimates of 0.5% released in

September.

During the April-August period of 2014-15, IIP

grew at 2.8%, as against flat production in same

period in the previous fiscal.

According to the IIP data, manufacturing --

which constitutes over 75% of the index --

contracted by 1.4% in August, compared to

0.2% decline in output a year ago. For

April-August, the sector grew at 1.8%,

compared to 0.1% contraction in the year-ago

period.

The consumer goods output contracted by 6.9%

in August against 0.9% decline logged a year

ago. For April-August, the segment showed

contraction of 4.9%, compared to a decline of

1.6% in the same period of 2013-14.

The consumer durables segment declined by

15% in August, as against a dip of 8.3% a year

ago. For April-August, it declined 12.9% as

against a dip of 11.2% in the five month period

of last fiscal.

Consumer non-durable goods output too

declined by 0.9% in August, compared to 5.4%

growth in same month last year. During

April-August, the segment grew by 0.9%

compared to 6.8% growth in same period last

fiscal. Overall, 11 of the 22 industry groups in

manufacturing showed positive growth in

August.

The production of capital goods, a barometer of

demand, contracted by 11.3% in August, against

2% decline in same month of last year. The

mining sector grew by 2.6% in August against a

dip of 0.9% a year ago. Power generation,

however, increased by 12.9% in the month

under review compared to 7.2% growth a year

ago. Production of intermediate goods

expanded by just 0.3% in August, compared to

3.8% growth a year ago. Basic goods output

grew 9.6% in August against a growth of 0.9% a

year ago.

Inflation update – Sep

Consumer Price Index (CPI):

Sources: APAS BRT

Sources: APAS BRT

The consumer price inflation for the month of

September has declined to its all-time low of

6.46%, the lowest since India started computing

consumer price index (CPI) in January 2012, led

by lower food prices and fuel costs. The August

CPI inflation has been revised to 7.73% from

7.8%.

The food inflation trimmed down to 7.67%

against 9.42% month-on-month. The vegetable

price inflation lowered significantly to 8.59%

versus 15.15% from August.

The inflation data further revealed that retail

inflation was 6.34% in urban India and 6.68% in

rural parts of the country against 7.04% and

8.27% respectively in August.

Indian central bank, RBI has kept the interest

rates elevated to fight persistently high inflation

in the economy. RBI is targeting retail inflation

of 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016.

Now since the inflation has declined sharply in

September and is likely to fall further in coming

months, it can make a case for RBI to soften the

interest rate regime, in its next monetary policy

on December 2nd.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI):

Inflation data based on Wholesale Price Index

(WPI) for September eased to 5-year low at

2.38 percent against 3.74% on a

month-on-month basis on lower food and fuel

prices.

Food inflation, which came in at 33-month low,

stood at 3.52% against 5.15%, while the fuel

and power group inflation came in at 1.33%

against 4.54% on a month-on-month basis.

Manufactured products inflation came in at

2.84% against 3.45%. The July WPI inflation has

been revised to 5.41% from 5.19%.

Sources: APAS BRT

House panel looking at merger proposal of 4 PSU insurers

The Select Committee of the Upper House

(Rajya Sabha), which is vetting the Insurance

Bill, is considering a proposal for the merger of

four PSU general insurance companies which

will enable them to consolidate their market

share and prevent them from becoming sick.

Several representations have already reached

the Committee and the finance ministry for the

merger of four PSU insurers.

Employee unions of the four companies — New

India Assurance, National Insurance, United

India Insurance and Oriental Insurance had met

finance minister and proposed a merger to form

a single general insurance behemoth to

strengthen their market share and become

more profitable. The four have a cumulative

asset base of over ₹ 1 lakh cr.

“With the opening of the market and entry of

private sector companies in non-life insurance

and the ensuing real competition, continuing

with the four PSUs appears meaningless. PSUs

are rapidly losing their market share, signaling

that the competition in the sector is in full

swing. In a decade’s time, the private sector has

captured over 40% market share. In sheer

desperation in the quest for top line (volume),

the four PSUs are in cut-throat competition

amongst themselves, trampling their overall

profitability,” said a former Member of

insurance regulator Irda. He added that they are

on their way to become sick if this trend

continues. “There is a strong case for merger of

the four and a chance for them to live”.

Currently, the general insurance market is

served by more than 20 private players. The

General Insurance Business (Nationalization)

Act can be amended to effect the merger.

When the general insurance industry was

nationalized in 1971, the four PSU companies

were set up to create some form of

competition.

“The cost saving in merging the

brick-and-mortar offices will be huge. Virtually

every state capital has an administrative office,

for each of the four. Merger will bring down the

administrative costs tremendously. Robust

computerization also will help. LIC is a case in

point,” the member added further.

IRDA Panel Favors 49% FDI in Insurance Intermediaries

An internal committee of the Insurance

Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA)

has recommended hiking foreign direct

investment (FDI) in all insurance sector

intermediaries like brokers, surveyors,

third-party administrators (TPAs) and web

aggregators to 49% from the current 26%.

According to reliable industry sources, the

panel, headed by joint director Suresh Mathur,

has submitted its report to chairman of

insurance sector regulator IRDA.

"FDI cap can be increased to 49% for the

intermediaries to begin with," an industry

source said. The report has also charted a

three-year roadmap to see how FDI can be

raised to 100% for intermediaries.

The report comes at a time when the Insurance

Amendment Bill, which seeks to increase FDI to

49% from 26%, is pending with the House select

committee. The committee is likely to submit its

report this month.

Insurance Sector

The 10-member sub-committee was formed by

chairman T S Vijayan in January to find out if the

hike in FDI be permitted for the sectoral

intermediaries to 100% from the current 26%.

At present, a foreign company cannot hold

more than 26% shares in an insurance

company. But, in case of insurance

intermediaries there is no such restriction.

There was also a consistent demand for

increasing the foreign shareholding in insurance

brokers from the existing limit of 26% to 100%.

The aforesaid proposed change would not

require any modification in the Insurance Act.

But, in case of increasing foreign shareholding

in an insurance intermediary like TPAs, the law

has to be amended.

IRDA looking to allow insurers to deal with equity derivatives

The Insurance Regulatory and Development

Authority (IRDA) is looking to allow insurance

companies to deal with equity derivatives. This

could be considered for unit-linked portfolios, in

particular.

IRDA has already allowed insurers to deal in

rupee interest rate derivatives, including

Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs), Interest Rate

Swaps (IRS) and Exchange Traded Interest Rate

Futures. The regulator had earlier said

participants could undertake different types of

plain vanilla FRAs or IRS. IRS having

explicit/implicit option features are prohibited.

The regulator may also look at Real Estate

Investment Trusts (REITs) and if it is viable, they

might discuss with markets regulator Security

and Exchanges Board of India to see if this could

be used as an investment opportunity by

insurers. REITs are expected enable easier

access to funds for cash-strapped real estate

players.

On the risk management and mitigation front,

the regulator was studying the catastrophe or

cat bond market to see if such an instrument

would have investor appetite in India.

Catastrophe bonds are used to fund claims after

a catastrophic incident. These bonds help

re-insurers transfer the financial risk of a

devastation in a year to investors.

India's sole re-insurer General Insurance

Corporation of India is also actively looking at

CAT bonds and their viability. Industry players

say a combination of Indian rupee and US dollar

denomination would be the best-suited model.

FPIs Can Invest in 1-Year Government Bonds under $5-Billion Limit

The Securities and Exchange Board of India

(Sebi) on Oct 9th said long-term foreign portfolio

investors (FPIs) such as sovereign wealth and

foreign central banks can invest in government

bonds having a minimum residual maturity of

one year within $5 billion category.

"...all investments by long-term FPIs (sovereign

wealth funds, multilateral agencies, endowment

funds, insurance and pension funds and foreign

central banks) in the $5 billion government debt

limit shall continue to be made in government

bonds having a minimum residual maturity of

one year," the market regulator said in a

circular.

Capital Markets

Sebi had in July tweaked the investment limits

for FPIs in government securities by increasing

the threshold for general investors from $20

billion to $25 billion. At the same time, it has

reduced sub-limit for longer time FPIs such as

sovereign funds by $5 billion as there was less

demand in this category. The overall cap remain

unchanged at $30 billion. The previous cap of

$10 billion had been utilized by only about 20%

in this category. The $20 billion limit for general

FPIs has been always fully exhausted. FPIs are

allowed to invest in the $25 billion government

debt limit till the overall investment reaches

90% after which the auction mechanism can be

initiated for allocation of the remaining limits.

The debt auction quotas give overseas investors

the right to invest in debt up to the limit

purchased.

Earlier this year, the limit for long-term

investors for investment in government

securities was raised from $5 billion to $10

billion within the total limit of $30 billion

available to them.

Asian Nations launch $100 bn Infrastructure Bank

India along with 20 other countries on Oct 24th

signed an agreement to become founding

members of the China-backed Asian

Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to aid the

infrastructure development in the Asian region

and reduce the dependence on

Western-dominated World Bank and IMF.

Usha Titus, a joint secretary at the economic

affairs division of the Ministry of Finance,

signed the MoU on behalf of India at a

ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in

Beijing. China's Vice Finance Minister Jin Liqun,

who was also the former Vice-President of the

Asian Development Bank, has been appointed

as the Secretary General of AIIB.

The bank, to be headquartered in Beijing, is

expected to be operational by next year. The

MoU specifies that the authorized capital of

AIIB is $100 billion and the initial subscribed

capital is expected to be around $50 billion.

The paid-in ratio will be 20%. Voting rights are

to be decided after consultations among the

members over fixing the bench marks which

were expected to be combination of GDP and

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

Based on this formula, India will be second

largest shareholder of the bank after China.

Elaborating on decision to participate in AIIB,

Titus said India's view is that the new bank

provides rich resource capital base for

infrastructure financing, which is good for the

regional development. Chinese Foreign Ministry

spokesperson Hua Chua Chunying welcomed

India's participation in new bank.

China regards India's support as a major boost

to the bank's formation which was largely seen

as an effort to enlarge funding for the Asian

countries reducing the dependence on ADB and

other Western-dominated global financial

institutions like World Bank and IMF.

China was keen about India's participation and

an invitation in this regard was extended by

Chinese President Xi Jinping during his first

meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on

the sidelines of BRICS summit in Brazil in July.

Infrastructure Sector

The AIIB is in addition to the BRICS (Brazil,

Russia, India, China and South Africa)

Development Bank formed this year, which will

be based in Shanghai. It is set to commence its

operations with an Indian as its President.

Besides India and China, other AIIB members

are Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Thailand, Sri Lanka,

Singapore, Qatar, Oman, the Philippines,

Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia,

Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lao PDR, Malaysia,

Mongolia and Myanmar.

The IMF and the World Bank are accused by

many countries of leading policies that do not

serve economic interests of Asian, African and

Latin American countries. Many also see them

as institutions serving Western policies. In a

speech to delegates after the inauguration, the

Chinese president said the AIIB's operation

needs to follow multilateral rules and

procedures.

"We have also to learn from the World Bank

and the Asian Development Bank and other

existing multilateral development institutions in

their good practices and useful experiences," Xi

said.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) President

Takehiko Nakao, who was in Beijing, said he did

not think the AIIB was a threat to the ADB's

role.

China has a 6.5% stake in the ADB, while the US

and Japan have about 15.6% each. The ADB,

created in 1966, offers grants and

below-market interest rates on loans to lower

to middle-income countries. At the end of 2013,

its lending amounted to $21.02 billion, including

co-financing with other development partners.

According to a joint study by the ADB and Asian

Development Bank Institute, the infrastructure

finance gap in Asia alone is somewhere in the

range of $8 trillion for the next decade.

In India itself current requirement for

infrastructure development is estimated to be

over $1 trillion.

Smart City project to be developed under PPP model

Government has said its ambitious Smart City

project will be developed with active private

participation and some hilly regions will be part

of the scheme.

New government's first budget has announced

a mega project of developing 100 smart cities

with modern amenities over the years.

Banking on private investment, the project will

be executed in PPP model and the government

will contribute as viable gap funding (VGF) for

the project.

Greenfield projects are new factories, power

plants or airports which are built from scratch

while facilities which are modified or upgraded

are called Brownfield projects.

Smart City entails facilities like continuous

water supply, modern sewerage system, solid

waste management and infrastructure

development among other advanced facilities.

The total estimate of investment requirements

for providing these services is estimated to be

around ₹7.5 lakh cr. over 20 years which means

it requires ₹35,000 cr. in a year.

Urban local bodies (ULB) are also being asked to

introduce reforms to generate additional

revenue to be part of the Smart City project.

The key headline indices Nify and BSE Sensex

had witnessed heavy selling pressure around

previous expiry cycle, due to fear of declining

global liquidity and same was contunied with

the start of october expiry cycle for the similar

reasons and dissapointing August-IIP numbers.

Sources: BSE, APAS Business Research Team

Nifty went down to as low as 7748 but bounced

backed since mid october as 7750 has been a

very strong support for the index.

Sources: NSE, APAS Business Research Team

Federal Reserve of the US has concluded their

bond buying program which would certainly put

a brake on easy money from the country.

However assessing at the situation europe it is

clear that European Central Bank (ECB) would

contunue its current stumulus program and

would take more measures to stimulate the

european economy further. Recent stimulas

announced by the Japan is also going to

contribute the global liquidity position. Thus

offsetting the withdral of bond buying program

of Fed.

Yields on the 10 year benchmark gilt has been

fallen consistantly during the month on

expectation of a cut in interest rate by the

central bank due to easing inflation.

Sources: APAS Business Research Team

The vilatitlity traded around 13 as key headline

indices traded in a narrow range for most part

of the month except near the expiry as they

gained significant momentum and headed

towards their all time high.

Sources: NSE, APAS Business Research Team

Falling crude oil is the biggest boon for India at

this point of time as crude imports make a large

sum of country’s import bill and also a

significant contributor to the inflation both

directly and indirectly. Thefore a substantial

amount of fall was winessed in inflation in the

month’s print. Overall this would keep the

Current Account Defict (CAD) well within the

grip and may help the government to meet its

fiscal deficti target of 4.1% for the financial

year.

Sources: APAS Business Research Team

Capital Market Snapshot

Evaluation of Performance of Global Assets Classes and BRICS Nations

It is evident from the table below that equity as

asset class has outperformed the other asset

classes under current scenario. Accommodative

monetary policies in the US, Europe, UK and

Japan has infused significant liquidity that has

improved the risk taking ability of the investor

and they shifted their investment allocation

from safe asset classes (as, Gold, US treasury

bills, USD) to equities.

Sources: APAS Business Research Team

Global equity indices have be buoyed due to

accommodative policies to stimulate the

respective economies. Largely this liquidity has

found place in equities of emerging markets in

search of better yield. Indian equities have

performed far better than other countries in

the world as well as asset classes.

Sources: APAS Business Research Team

Currencies of most of the emerging economies

have weakened against the US Dollar owing to

significant recovery in the US and internal

macroeconomic issues in these economies. This

has deteriorated their current account balance

and fiscal situation and put further pressure on

their currencies. South Africa and Brazil are

worst affected among the BRICS nations.

Brazilian economic situation has been

worsening for time as its GDP has been

declining, industrial production has been

disappointing, interest rate in the economy is

very high, and inflation is rising.

Growth of the Russian economy has been

largely affected by the geopolitical situation.

Key indicators such as business cycle, money

supply, loans growth, exports, new orders, and

fixed assets investments forecast a slowdown in

Chinese economy.

Problems of India are lesser than other BRICS

nations. Its GDP is showing strength, Current

Account Deficit is well within its grip, exports

are improving and fiscal deficit target is

achievable. Thus Indian currency most probably

will remain stable in comparison to other

emerging nations.

Inflation in India has started declining

significantly which can prompt the central bank

to cut the interest rate and fuel the growth.

Indian being the net-commodity-importer

country is the biggest beneficiary of falling

global commodity prices.

Sources: APAS Business Research Team

Countries GDP CPI Current Account

Balance Budget Balance

Interest Rates

Latest 2014* 2015* Latest 2014* % of GDP, 2014* % of GDP, 2014* (10YGov), Latest

Brazil -0.9 Q2 0.4 1.4 6.7 Sep 6.3 -3.6 -3.9 12.4

Russia 0.8 Q2 0.4 0.6 8.0 Sep 7.5 2.6 0.4 10.1

India 5.7 Q2 6.0 6.5 6.5 Sep 8.0 -2.0 -4.9 8.32

China 7.3 Q3 7.3 7.0 1.6 Sep 2.1 2.0 -2.9 3.57^

S Africa 1.0 Q2 1.6 2.9 5.9 Sep 6.0 -5.2 -4.4 7.67

USA 2.6 Q2 2.2 3.0 1.7 Sep 1.8 -2.5 -2.8 2.35

Canada 2.5 Q2 2.3 2.5 2.0 Sep 1.9 -2.6 -2.4 2.06

Mexico 1.6 Q2 2.3 3.6 4.2 Sep 3.8 -1.7 -3.6 5.78

Euro Area 0.8 Q2 0.8 1.3 0.3 Sep 0.6 2.3 -2.6 0.90

Germany 1.3 Q2 1.5 1.7 0.8 Sep 1.0 6.8 0.4 0.90

Britain 3.0 Q3 3.1 2.7 1.2 Sep 1.7 -4.2 -4.5 2.54

Australia 3.1 Q2 3.0 2.8 2.3 Q3 2.6 -2.5 -1.9 3.30

Indonesia 5.1 Q2 5.2 5.6 4.5 Sep 6.3 -3.0 -2.4 Na

Malaysia 6.4 Q2 6.0 5.4 2.6 Sep 3.1 5.7 -3.5 3.82

Singapore 2.4 Q3 3.5 3.9 0.6 Sep 1.5 20.2 0.5 2.28

S Korea 3.2 Q3 3.5 3.5 1.1 Sep 1.5 5.5 0.5 2.71

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prepared on the basis of publicly available information which has not been independently verified by APAS.

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