Foreshore Event

Leading Edge Forum 07/08/10 01:32 PM

Situation Normal, Everything Must ChangeSimon Wardley, Researcher

“The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Commodi

tisation

Commodi

tisation

Certainty

Ubiquity

Improvement (supply competition)

Demand (user competition)

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubiquity

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Certainty

Ubiquity

Marketplace

Standardised Service!

Certainty

Ubiquity

Agility (Self Service)

Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation)

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

Creative Destruction

Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Certainty

Ubiquity

AcceleratedInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)

Standards Matter

Certainty

Ubiquity

Disruptive

Transition

GovernanceTrust

Confusion

Transparency

CompetitionLock-inSecond SourceControl

SuitabilityOutsourcing

Security

Certainty

Ubiquity

Market

Competitive Gap

Certainty

Ubiquity

You

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubiquity

Market

You

Certainty

Ubiquity

Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid

consumption

efficiency

William Stanley Jevons, 1865

“Jevons Paradox”

Technological progress that increases the

efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to

increase the rate of consumption of that

resource.

Lifecycle

#

CommoditisationDemand vs Supply Competition

InnovationCreative DestructionComponentisation

Lifecycle

#

LifecycleVRM ‘06 MyDex ‘08

National Grid, ‘30s H. Pixii, 1832

Z3 ‘41

Turing ‘36

IBM 650, ‘54

PowerEdge, ‘02

Amazon EC2 ‘06

CustomerCentric ‘70s

Siebel SIS ’94

DBM ’80s

Lifecycle

#

ProceduralPredictable

CODB

StandardisedKnown

Repeatable

Emergent

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Competitive Adv.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

Prof. Van Valen

Lifecycle

#

Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’.

Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues.

Salaman & Storey

Innovation Paradox

Commoditisation

Innovation

Lifecycle

#

Network Effects, Open Source, Participation

Commoditisation

Innovation

Lifecycle

#

Pricing, Confusion, Branding

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647

Lifecycle

#

Six Sigma

Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff

has no strategic value?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

One size fits all

ITAdminBusiness

Lifecycle

#

VS

Lifecycle

# Pioneers Colonisers Town Planner

Innovate Leverage Commoditise

CustomerCentric ‘70s

Siebel SIS ’94

DBM ’80s Salesforce ’02 (10.6%)

Lists

InnovateDays / Weeks

Agile

High Risk

Re-use

Fail QuickMin. Inv.

ExperimentCollaborate

In-house

Lifecycle

#

LeverageMonths / Years

Agile

ROI

Decide

TacticMod. Inv.

EvaluateMonitor / Acquire

Ecosystem

YearsTOGAF

Price vs QoS

Common Service

Low RiskHigh. Inv.

StandardiseSupply Chain

Outsource

Commoditise

20% Work

Summer of Code

Open Source Investment

Google Labs

Marketplace

Core Services

Acquisition

Innovate Leverage Commoditse

Lifecycle

#

Defined Build Procedures

Google

‘08

Innovate Leverage Commoditse

Lifecycle

Panoramio ‘07

Map API ’05

Where2 Oct’04GIS ‘62

Core ServicesAcquisition

PlatformAppExchange(monitor)

Innovate Leverage Commoditse

Lifecycle

#

CRM Ideas

Defined Build Procedures

SalesForce

Leading Edge Forum

Global Research & Advisory Organization

Membership of a community of true peers, business and technology experts

and advisers

Leading Edge Forum

Leading Edge Forum

#

Lifecycle

Leading Edge Forum

http://lef.csc.com