Forecasting Surface Temperatures to help UNEP Implement Special Sustainability Programs for Target Countries Group B7 61710175 Aneesh Chandran 61710726 Vaibhav Mathur 61710314 Pradeep Kumar Grandhi 61710251 Nishikant Mishra 61710309 Divya Dewan 61710269 Mahesh Panse
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Forecasting Surface Temperatures to help
UNEP Implement Special Sustainability
Programs for Target Countries
Group B7
61710175 Aneesh Chandran
61710726 Vaibhav Mathur
61710314 Pradeep Kumar Grandhi
61710251 Nishikant Mishra
61710309 Divya Dewan
61710269 Mahesh Panse
Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 2
Problem Description: ................................................................................................................................ 2
Data Description: ...................................................................................................................................... 2
Data Preparation: ...................................................................................................................................... 3
Test Case - China: ......................................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion and Recommendation ................................................................................................................ 6
Appendix-1: Model Comparison for China .............................................................................................. 7
Appendix-2: Time-Plot for Monthly Residuals (MLR) ............................................................................ 7
Appendix-3: Histogram for Residuals (MLR) .......................................................................................... 7
Table-1: Monthly Forecast – China .......................................................................................................... 8
Appendix-4: Monthly Forecast - China .................................................................................................... 8
Appendix-5: Time-Plot for Yearly Residuals (Double Exponential)........................................................ 8
Table-2: Yearly Forecast - China .............................................................................................................. 9
Appendix-6: Yearly Forecast - China ....................................................................................................... 9
Test Case – India: ........................................................................................................................................ 10
Appendix-7: Yearly Forecast - India ...................................................................................................... 10
Appendix-8: Time-Plot for Yearly Residuals (Naïve+AR) .................................................................... 10