Forecasting SEO Traffic & Revenue

Jon Quinton, Agency Director [email protected] @jonquinton1

Forecasting SEO Traffic & Revenue @SearchLDN

So – how do you forecast when goal posts move all the time?

The need for forecasting is a sign that your proposed work is being taken seriously

By following a logical approach with the right data, it gets far easier.

Here’s what we’ll cover in the next 10 minutes:

• What data should you use for your baseline forecast?

• How to forecast what you believe is achievable

• Some caveats!

Agenda:

Getting Started

Data you should consider using – the aim being to reduce guesswork as much as possible:

• Current organic traffic (and hopefully historic traffic data too)

• Search volume

• Seasonal changes in search volume

• Ranking data

• Conversion rates from organic search

• AOV

• CTRs

Useful data points:

Reviewing seasonality:

Adwords keyword planner seasonal trends vs. GA organic search data.

Filtered to UK demand / traffic.

Ranking Data: When gathering ranking data, try to collect the

following points:

• Ranking position in relevant markets

• Ranking URL (for use later)

• Top 10 results (for use in gathering

competitive data)

• SERP features

We recommend either AWR Cloud or STAT

Analytics

CTR studies:

AWR CTR study showing click through rates for organic search results with and without the top three ads.

Read: https://www.advancedwebranking.com/ctrstudy/

Building a Credible Forecast

1. Review previous year’s trend:

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2015

Seasonal Trend

Comparing month by month organic traffic against the seasonal trend from keyword planner – what *should* have happened?

What if as a first step we were to aimed to stay on trend?

1. Review previous year’s trend:

In this particular case, our trend patterns were backed up by a drop in visibility reported in Search Metrics.

2. Consider key events:

To start estimating when increases are likely to take effect, consider the following events:

• Implementation of quick win items

• Development resource and implementation of larger items

• Release of content marketing / link building activity

• Expected release from penalties (if appropriate)

• Migration / consolidation of further domains

3. Estimating a nominal growth:

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In this case, we’ve varied between a 2% - 5% MOM growth, arriving at the YOY figure we believe we can achieve.

Note the forecasted flat line for the initial three months. A delay based on predicted lead time for implementation.

4. Laying on seasonality:

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We add the seasonal trend on top to see how forecasted should look throughout the year including seasonality.

5. Present a range of results:

To help set expectations, a range of forecasted results is an incredibly sensible approach

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Pessimistic

Optimistic

Calculating revenue:

To calculate revenue potential:

• Take conversions rates, making sure you evaluate organic conversion rates rather than an

overall value

• Taking Ecommerce data / AOVs, review whether a large volume of revenue / sales come

from s select group of categories

• Understand that many other factors will influence revenue and sales. Therefore, use your

forecast as an indicator or basic model

• When returning to your forecast later in the year, update the model to better reflect reality

and genuine AOVs and CRs

A Few Caveats

Important caveats to highlight:

When presenting or delivering a forecast, the following caveats should always be mentioned:

• It’s vital you clearly define where the clients responsibilities are in achieving forecast

• Explain that the forecast is based on current circumstances, both with the client and in

search

• Clearly explain your assumptions – namely that you’re taking the CTR data and search

volume as truths, and assuming these will remain as they are

• Set a forecast review each quarter to ensure you’re tracking progress and setting goals

accordingly

• Explain that your forecast is based on the current roadmap. For example, unexpected

changes in PPC strategy will have an impact on organic

Key Takeaways

Key takeaways:

1. Base your forecast on data you know to be as close to the truth as possible

2. Be realistic, never over forecast, and caveat as needed

3. Take even greater care when presenting a revenue forecast, opt to present as an

‘indicator’ where possible

Thank you!

Jon Quinton, Agency Director [email protected] @jonquinton1