Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

Forecasting Eddy Ulysses

Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. AndersonHorizon Marine, Inc.

(Marion, MA)

Sergei FrolovAccurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc.

(Narragansett, RI)

Dynamic Positioning Conference

November 15 - 16, 2005

Sensors II

Waiting On Currents….W O C When will it go away?

When will the Loop/eddy hit our site?

?

?

?

How long will it shut us down?

LOOP CURRENT/EDDY MODEL FORECAST

Frontal boundary

Cyclone

Center

EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM COMPONENTS

INITIALIZATIONCOMPONENT

OBSERVATIONAL DATA

HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE

PHYSICAL PRINCIPLESNOWCAST

PREDICTIONCOMPONENT

FORECAST

TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY

MODEL

FORECAST

NOWCAST

AUTOMATED DATA

ASSIMILATION

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ANALYSIS 15 SEPTEMBER 2004

Courtesy of R. Leben CU-CCAR

EDDY WATCH GULF CHART 15 SEPTEMBER 2004

MC

GC

WR

AEF- HORIZON EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM

INITIAL CONDITIONS(NOWCAST)

FORECAST

INTELLIGENT DATA

ANALYSIS

INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE

MODEL

ALL OBSERVATIONAL

DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME

OBSERVATIONAL DATA

• Drifting buoys

• Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs (AXBTs)

• Ocean current surveys

• Rig mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs)

• SST and ocean color

• Rig and pilot observations

• Altimetry

FAR HORIZON DRIFTING BUOYS

EXPERIENCE

Over 1700 FHDs successfully deployed at sea

• Eddy Watch – GOM (1705)• Eddy Watch – Trinidad (69)• Hurricane• Oil Spill• Search & Rescue• Ring & Eddy Surveys• Vessel Tracking• Instrument Recovery• Plankton Studies, etc.

AIR-DEPLOYED EXPENDABLE BATHYTHERMOGRAPH (AXBT)

Temperature

OCEAN CURRENT SURVEYS

RIG-MOUNTED ADCPs – EDDYNET

SATELLITE IMAGERY

EDDY ULYSSES

LOOPCURRENT

EDDY WATCH GOM CHART

EDDYULYSSES

LOOPCURRENT

TITANICEDDY

WE

CE

CE

GULF of MEXICO09 September 2004

EDDY WATCH REPORT

EDDY WATCH CENTRAL GULF CHART

EDDYULYSSES

LC

CE

CE

GULF of MEXICO09 September 2004

EDDY WATCH REPORT

IDENTIFICATION OF EDDY FEATURES

• Eddy size

• Eddy shape

• Rotation and migration

• Vertical density structure

• Swirl speed

• Surrounding cyclonic eddies

INITIALIZATION COMPONENT

• Analysis of observational data

• Identification of significant eddy features

• Initialization component

• Formulation of a “nowcast” • Model forecast

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY

MODEL FORECAST

NOWCASTAUTOMATED

DATA ASSIMILATION

COMPARISON OF TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM…

INITIAL CONDITIONS(NOWCAST)

FORECAST

INTELLIGENT DATA

ANALYSIS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE

MODEL

….WITH AEF-HMI EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM

ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN

REAL TIME

09 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART09 SEPTEMBER 2004 NOWCAST

15 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART15 SEPTEMBER 2004 FORECAST

Thunder Horse

THUNDER HORSE FORECAST

BP THUNDER HORSE – ADCP vs EDDY FORECAST

LOOP CURRENT FORECAST

3-D MODEL OF EDDY ULYSSES

SUMMARY

• New Loop Current/Eddy forecasting system now available

• Skill in predicting currents out 1 month

• Advance knowledge of currents answers questions