Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu Forecasting and Impacts of our Energy Future Daniel M. Kammen Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy Department of Nuclear Engineering University of California, Berkeley Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu NAS/IoM Climate Change and Human Health, San Francisco, CA September 10, 2007
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Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Forecasting and Impacts of our Energy Future
Daniel M. Kammen
Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the EnvironmentEnergy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy
Department of Nuclear EngineeringUniversity of California, Berkeley
Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu
NAS/IoM Climate Change and Human Health, San Francisco, CA September 10, 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Assumes Significant Advances:• Energy intensity• Nuclear• Renewables
Assumes Significant Advances:• Energy intensity• Nuclear• Renewables
Gap Technologies:• Carbon capture and storage• H2 novel storage and advanced
transportation• Nano/Bio-technologies• Next generation solar
Gap Technologies:• Carbon capture and storage• H2 novel storage and advanced
transportation• Nano/Bio-technologies• Next generation solar
The “Gap”
Efficiency Improvements and New Technology Vitally Needed, Under-Emphasized
Efficiency Improvements and New Technology Vitally Needed, Under-Emphasized
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
High and low carbon pathways
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2010 2020 2040 2050
Glo
bal C
arbo
n Em
issi
ons,
GT
2030
2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation.
2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation.
Thanks to the World Business Council for Sustainable Development
WRE 450 (IPCC)
WRE 550 (IPCC)
WRE 1000 (IPCC)
Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
Current coastlineHigh emissions
coastline
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
High and low carbon pathways
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2010 2020 2040 2050
Glo
bal C
arbo
n Em
issi
ons,
GT
2030
WRE 450 (IPCC)
WRE 550 (IPCC)
WRE 1000 (IPCC)
Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation.
2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation.
>900 ppm TrajectoryEnergy by 2050:• Coal over 2x, no Carbon
Capture & Storage (CCS), some coal to liquids.
• Oil up 50%• Gas over 2x• Biofuels make up 10% of
vehicle fuel mix.• Electricity 1/3 of final energy.• Modest increase in nuclear.• Renewables provide 1/3 of
electricity generation.• Vehicle efficiency up 50%.
<550 ppm TrajectoryEnergy by 2050:• Coal up 50%, but half of
power stations use CCS.• Oil down 10-15%.• Gas nearly 2-3x (note: adds
volatility)• Biofuels make up 20% of
vehicle fuel mix.• Green Hydrogen in use• Strong shift to electricity as
final energy (~50% final energy).
• Large increase in nuclear.• Renewables provide half of
electricity generation.• Vehicle efficiency up 100%• Sustainable biomass
practices
WRE1000 - we start planning nowWRE 550 - we start acting nowWRE 450 - we started to act in 2000, or …
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
0
2
4
6
8
10
1950 1990 2030
Global Forecasts, Economics and Energy
Population
0.9%
0.4%
1.1%
OECD
Non-OECD
Billions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1990 2030
Energy Demand
1.6%
0.7%
2.4%
MBDOE
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1950 1990 2030
GDP
2.8%
2.2%
Trillion (2000$)
4.7%
Impact ∝ Population x GDP/capita x carbon/GDP
1950 1990 2030 1950 1990 20301950 1990 2030
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
New Coal by the Decades
0
200
400
600
800
GW
Co
al
Other Developing 43 90 128
India 16 48 79
China 150 168 226
Transition 1 11 19
OECD 12 184 218
2003-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
Source: IEA, WEO 2004
221
500
670
>$1 trillion in capital
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Athabasca basin tar sand mine: 10% bitumen by weight in the soil.~ $30/barrel of energy required to refine
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduCH4 → H2S separation, then H2 & elemental sulfur separation
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
We are running out of atmosphere much faster than fossil fuels … at all price points
Source: Brandt and Farrell (2006) Environmental Research Letters (erl.iop.org)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Global Energy Supply by Fuel
Fossil Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 2005 2030
1.6%
1.6%
1.3%
1.7%
1.6%
Oil
Gas
Coal
Other
MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Other Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 2005 2030
1.6%
1.0%
2.2%
Nuclear
Hydro/Geo
Biomass / Other
MBDOE
Wind & Solar20.5%
1.4%
Biofuels 7.2%
Wind, Solar & Biofuels
0
1
2
3
4
5
1980 2005 2030
8.8%
12.5%
7.2%
Wind
Biofuels
MBDOE
8.4%Solar
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
50
100
150
200
1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
Ene
rgy
Serv
ices
in Q
uads
• Since 1970, energy efficiency has met 77% of new energy service demands in the U.S, while new energy supplies have contributed only 23% of new energy service demands.
• This could be just the beginning
Energy Service Demand
Energy Supply
The Energy Efficiency Big Picture (United States)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Low Carbon Fuel developments worldwide
• Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)o United States: double biofuel use by 2012 to ~6% of gasoline.o UK Renewable Transportation Fuel Obligation (RTFO): 5% by 2010
• Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)o California: regulations to be in effect 2010o Federal bills: Boxer, Feinstein, Obama, Inslee, etc.o European Union: monitoring in 2009, reductions start in 2011o United Kingdom: RTFO requires GHG monitoring, pilot in 2007o Others: BC, WA, OR, AZ, NM, MN, and…?
• Current and forthcoming analysiso Draft Carbon Reporting Methodology under the RTFO. E4Tech. Dec06o Sustainability Reporting within the RTFO. ECOFYS. Feb07o Creating Markets for Green Biofuels. UC Berkeley study. April07o AB1007 Well-to-Wheels Analysis. CEC/CARB study. May07o Low Carbon Fuel Standard for California. UC Berkeley/Davis. May07
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Pro
babi
lity
(AR
I)
Average Daily Exposure (µg / m3)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Charcoal
Ceramic Wood Stoves3-Stone Fire
Illness Reduction Observed in Kenya(ARI = acute respiratory infection)
All ARI
ALRI, Lower respiratoryInfections only
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Sub-Saharan Africa’s wood-energy consumption is the highest in the world
Source: Bailis,Ezzati & Kammen, Science (2005)
3.2Latin America
Source: IEA, 2003
8.4India
8.9China
10.2Sub Saharan Africa
Primary production of biomass energy in 2000 (1018 Joules)
Charcoal is not just an African issue
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
BAU C
F RC
RF
Expected Annual Deaths: Leading Causes for African Child and Women
Millions of avoidable deaths; biofuels can be comparable to fossil fuels
University of California, Berkeley • Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory • http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael
area of ciricle= % of annual average U.S. household consumption
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S
. GH
G E
mis
sion
s (G
T C
eq.
)
Historic U. S.
emissions
Business as usual (EIA)
Kyoto protocol
Administration intensity target
California AB 32, AB1493& EE 3-05
Scaled from CAto the nation
Climate Stabilization Zone
Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,
The California commitment - scaled to the nation
Solar roofing & off-site wind purchases
All materials from reclaimed former building
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
The Path Ahead
• Clean energy sources today are evolving rapidly, butare a small component of our overall energy system
• Rapid growth of the clean energy sector will require a coordinated commitment to technology push and demand pullo Aggressive R&D will need to be coupled with strong
support for clean energy market expansiono Business and consumer involvement is vital
• Pricing carbon/greenhouse gas emissions is vital to moving from sector support strategies to long-term sustainability policies
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Boiling Water ReactorPressurized Water Reactor
Reactor Type
A 1: Westinghouse <700 MWe 2: Westinghouse 700–1000 MWW 3: Westinghouse >1000 MWf 4: Babcock & Wilcox^ 5: Combustion EngineeringG 6: GE <700 MWk 7: GE 700–1000 MW] 8: GE > 1000 MW
Reactor Cohort
0 25 50 75 100Cost Rank
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
Life
time
leve
lized
ele
ctric
ity c
ost (
2004
$ p
er k
Wh)
k] ] k k ]
]G
k k kG
G
]
]W ]
]] ]
] ]
]]
k
] ]
Gk
k
Fitzpatrick
Susquehanna 1
Perry Columbia
River Bend
Fermi Hope Creek
Nine Mile Pt 2
Clinton
Shoreham
f f e A e Aff
AA ^ e WA e ^ e W e ^ ^f W WW
e e ^ f e e We WWWWW ^ f ^^ ^ ^ e
WWW
f W^ ^
WW W
We WWW
We
^W
W
e
W
Oconee 1 Oconee 2
Surry 1 Turkey Pt 3
Surry 2 Turkey Pt 4
Oconee 3
Arkansas 1
Diablo Canyon 2 Vogtle 2
Shearon Harris South Texas 1 South Texas 2 Diablo Canyon 1 Comanche Pk. 2
Rancho Seco Seabrook 1 Millstone 3 Watts Bar 1
Beaver Valley 2
Comanche Pk 1
Hultman, Koomey & Kammen (2007) ES&T, in press
The Cost of Nuclear Power from the U. S. Civilian Reactor Fleet