Forecast of the impact of climate change on the ... section/3-15_En... · Krituliai Evaporacija Transpiracija Peotenciali ET. Water balance elements in winter wheat crops as calculated

Forecast of the impact of climate change on the productivity of grain crops in

fertile soils of Lithuania

Dr. Sigitas LAZAUSKAS

Virmantas POVILAITIS

Lithuanian Institute of Agriculture (LIA)

Dr. Irena KRIŠČIUKAITIENĖ

Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics (LIAE)

The goal of the survey:

to explore and anticipate the impact of key factors of the changing climate, temperature and humidity regime on the productivity of grain crops.

Tasks:

• Assess the impact of climate change on water balance in relation to the productivity of plants;

• Anticipate changes in the productivity of grain crops by simulating growth and development under different climate change scenarios.

Global changes and their expression in Central Lithuania

• The anticipated global climate warming tendencies are evident, however the scope of changes depends on the applied scenario (IPCC 2007);

• Northern regions are warming up more than the Southern, but hot weather waves will reach Northern regions less often than the Southern and East Europe regions;

• The amount of rainfall in Northern regions should not drop.

• In Lithuania vegetation period becomes warmer and slightly dryer in general, however:

• Winter is very mild, • The second half of

summer and autumn are warm and dry,

• Spring is similar to the spring of this year?

• Variations in meteorological conditions are greatly increasing as well as the probability of extreme phenomena.

Methods of the survey

• Object – summer barley, winter wheat, maize;

• Location of the experiment - long-term Valinavaexperiment representing fertile soils of the Central Lithuania (LIA, Dotnuva);

• Meteorological data – from the Dotnuva meteorological station;

• Model – DSSAT v4 ;

• Model revise - according to actual results of experiments from long-term field experiments at LIA;

• Simulation/anticipation:

üSimulation of water balance

üSimulation and forecasts of crop development under various climate change scenarios.

Valinava long-term experiment

• Set in 1990;

• Covers 11 fields with separate drainage and ground water recording systems;

• Field plants grown under 3 systems of different intensity;

• Typical crop rotation of the Central Lithuania;

Measurements taken in the Valinava long-term experiment

• Soil description;

• Actual meteorological conditions (from Dotnuva);

• Soil humidity observations (irometers);

• Measurements of direct CO2 emissions.

Quite recently damp soils prevailed in Lithuania (reddish - water-sick and regularly damp areas), because of the water balance surplus.

A fragment from the map compiled by the Institute of Amelioration in 1951-1953

Actual annual drainage outflow from different intensity field plant rotation and herbage in the

Valinava experiment during the period of 2002-2008.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008

Integruota Intensyvi Organinė Pieva Ganykla

Drainage outflow mm

Temperatur

Rainfall6,3

oC

409,6 mm

7,2oC

467,4 mm

7,0oC

570,3 mm

6,6oC

345,5 mm

9,1oC

656,3 mm

8,5oC

622,3 mm

Fluctuation of key water balance components in winter wheat crops at Valinava grounds in Dotnuva, in 2001 – 2007 (as calculated by model DSSAT) .

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Krituliai Evaporacija Transpiracija Peotenciali ET

Water balance elements in winter wheat crops as calculated by model DSSAT v4, when weather

temperature is above 2°C

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

mm

-60 -30 0 30 60 mm

krituliai dirvos evoporacija transpiracija drenažas

Various models are used in climate change surveys, but in Europe DSSAT and WOFOST (Josef Eitzinger, et al., 2008) are used more often

Operational scheme of the model DSSAT v4.0.2.0

Meteorological conditions

SoilGrowing

technologyPlant

species

Input

Integrated equations in the model set for calculating:•Consumption of water and food substances•Photosynthesis•Breething•Growth and development

OutputGlobal

changes

Riskanalysis

Precissionagriculture

Physiological parametresof plants

Increase of cropyielding

Input of modelio DSSAT v4 in the

surveyVariable:

• Meteorological conditions:

ü Increasing temperature of the environment and CO2 concentration;

ü Increasing temperature of the environment and variable amount of rainfall;

Invariable:

• Soil;

• Technology of growing;

• Plant species;

Water balance in winter wheat crops simulated by model DSSAT v4 and actual indicators of

irometers

Žieminiai kviečiai, 2008 m.

0,5

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325

Dienos po sėjos

m

0

50

100

150

200

ce

ntib

ara

i

vandens prieinamumo augimui faktorius HTK Irometrų duomenys, centibarais

Water balance in summer barley crops simulated by model DSSAT v4, and actual indicators of

irometers

2008 m vasarinių miežių pasėlis

0.30.4

0.4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

20 40 60 80 100 120 140dienos po sėjos

m

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

ce

ntib

ara

i

vandens prieinamumo augimui faktorius HTK Irometrų parodymai, centibarais

Water balance• Increase of weather temperature influenced by climate

change increases the potential of evapotranspiration in agricultural crops visibly changing water balance parameters in agricultural crops.

• High increase of weather temperatures during the period of vegetation may relatively increase the evaporation of the soil, and significant reduction of rainfall, as it happened in 2005-2006, may essentially change the entire water balance of the agro-ecosystem.

• Subsequently, the decisive factor on which water balance changes in our country will depend in the future, is the amount of rainfall and its distribution within the course of the year..

Forecast on winter wheat yield as simulated by model DSSAT v4 (on the basis of 2007)

Winter wheat yield

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

-60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60

0 oC 1 oC 2 oC 3 oC 4 oC

kg

ha-1

Change in the amount of rainfall

Change in temperature

Forecast on summer barley yield as simulated by model DSSAT v4 (on the basis of 2007)

Summer barley grain yield

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

-45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45

0 oC 1oC 2 oC 3 oC 4 oC

kg h

a-1

Change in the amount of rainfall

Change in temperature

Forecast of summer barley yield as calculated by model DSSAT v4, under warming temperature of

the environment and the increasing amount of CO2

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

esama

CO2

CO2 400

ppm

esama

CO2

CO2 400

ppm

esama

CO2

CO2 400

ppm

esama

CO2

CO2 400

ppm

esama

CO2

CO2 400

ppm

dabartinės sąlygos 1oC prie esamų

sąlygų

2oC prie esamų

sąlygų

3oC prie esamų

sąlygų

4oC prie esamų

sąlygų

kg ha-1

Forecast for maize is favourable: in case the average temperature rose by 2ºC more, grain would ripen to the hard maturity and it would be possible

to start growing productive species of mid-term vegetation Forecast of maize grain yield potential generated by model DSSATv4.0.1.0

changing the average weather temperature by 2 and 4 oC

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 132 147 162 177 192Dienos

kg ha-1

Kukurūzų grūdų derliaus potencialas esamomis sąlygomisKukurūzų grūdų derliaus potencialas temperatūrą padidinus +2oCKukurūzų grūdų derliaus potencialas temperatūrą padidinus +4oC

Maize grain yield potential at current conditions

? ?

Late waves of hot weather

The waives of hot weather will have effect for yield of spring cereals.

4,4

4,6

4,8

5

5,2

5,4

t/ha

2007 m. meteorologinėmis sąlygomis

Maksimali temperatūra liepos mėnesĮ1 savaitę aukštesnė nei 30 oC

Maksimali temperatūra liepos mėnesĮ2 savaitės aukštesnė nei 30 oC

Generalization

• It is anticipated that significant increase of weather temperature and the concentration of CO2 gas in the atmosphere will shorten the vegetation of summer barley and will have a negative impact on the yield indicators.

• In recent years considerably warmer than climatic norm weather in Lithuania in the case of sufficient amount of rainfall is favourable for the formation of the abundant yield of summer barley and, in particular, of winter wheat.

• Forecast for maize is favourable. When the temperature rises by 3ºC grain could ripen to the hard maturity and it would be possible to start growing productive species of mid-term vegetation.

• Weather warming influenced by climate change increases the potential of evapotranspiration in agricultural crops visibly changing water balance parameters in agricultural crops.

• Survey of simulations indicated that early and late spring frosts, summer heat and droughts will greatly influence the development of agricultural crops and the process of yield formation reducing their economic productivity.

Intensiveness of Helminthosporiosis in winter wheat,Dotnuva, 1998 – 2008

y = -0,3768x + 4,6291

R2 = 0,1773

0

2

4

6

8

10

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Aff

ecte

d le

af a

rea

in %

Intensiveness of Drechslera teres in summer barley, Dotnuva, 1998 – 2008

y = -0,3209x + 10,57

R2 = 0,0549

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

2008

Aff

ecte

d le

af a

rea

in %

Thank you for your attention