FOR174 _INES B INSOLATIONS PROJECT IMPACT OF SELF-CONSUMPTION ON INTEGRATION OF PHOTOVOLTAICS IN MARTINIQUE 1 FRANCK AL SHAKARCHI SESSION T-1: RENEWABLE.

FOR174 _INES B

INSOLATIONS PROJECT

IMPACT OF SELF-CONSUMPTION ON INTEGRATION OF PHOTOVOLTAICS IN MARTINIQUE

1

FRANCK AL SHAKARCHI

SESSION T-1: RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGY ON ISLAND POWER GRIDS

INTRODUCTION ON CEA TECH AND ONSMART ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS LABORATORY

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16 000 employees in 10 research centers4 B€ annual budget580 priority patents filed / year120 new high tech companies created

Defence Applications

Division

NuclearEnergyDivision Research &

Technology DivisionMaterial

Science Division

Life ScienceDivision

Smart Electrical Systems LaboratoryScope:• Electricity Storage Systems• Electric vehicles• Integration of solar generation• Demand-side management• Smart grids & micro-gridsServices:• Modelling and simulations• Smart management and SCADA• Demonstrators and experimental grids

4 500 employees550 M€ budget500 priority patents / year50 spin-off companies

NEW ENERGYTECHNOLOGIES1 400 employees

1 052 patent portfolio170 M€ budget 2013

NanomaterialsThermal, Biomass & H2

Electric vehiclesSolar energy

INTRODUCTION ON THE PROJECT

Consortium:Agence Martiniquaise de l’Energie (AME)Solar Electric MartiniqueCommissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives (CEA)

Funding:Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie (ADEME)

Objective:Identify the technical and financial conditions for deployment of PV self-consumption

systems in Martinique islandThrough simulations of individual systems and their aggregated impact on the global mixTaking into account externalities (positive and negative)

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WHAT IS A SOLAR HOME SYSTEM ?

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NOT ONLY A SIMULATION: A REALITYCONCRETE SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS PROJECTS

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MILLENER for the French islands:Two type of systems:

500 solar home systems1000 demande-response systems

French overseas territories:Corsica. La Réunion and GuadeloupeNot Martinique

EDF SEI and other partners

Many other countries around the world:Germany:

electricity price in Germany ~ electricity cost in Martiniqueless solar ressource

USAAustralia…

MARTINIQUE ELECTRICITY MIX – 2012

Production:471 MW installed capacity1591 GWh produced electricity

Consumption:254 MW peak load~1422 GWh delivered electricity to customers

~43% domestic~49% services~8% industry

Cost of mix:total cost of power generation: 408 M€Compensation from CSPE : 329 M€

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Capacity (MW) Production (GWh)0

200400600800

10001200140016001800

Wind powerPVWaste incinerationLFOHFO

EDF SEI HFO and

LFO

semi-base LFO

PV Wind Waste Global0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

Total cost (M€)CSPE (M€)

COSTS COMPARISONS BETWEEN PV GENERATION AND POWER GENERATION FROM FOSSILE FUELS

oil @ 150€/bbl oil @ 100€/bbl oil @ 50€/bbl0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Power generation cost (€/MWh) including 15€/TCO2

HFO - base LFO - semibase LFO - peak

High power generation costs in La Martinique:

From 160 to 280 €/MWhDepending on oil pricesRequiring subsidiesLittle local jobs~700 gCO2/kWhHigh PV purchasing cost due to previous installations at high FIT

Use the subsidies for cheap PV generation:

PV cost gone down Stable pricesLocal jobsLittle CO2 emissionsTarget replacement of peak and semi-base production

CEA estimation based on raw data from CRE. IEDOM. Préfécture

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2022 20230

50

100

150

200

250

300

Comparaison of PV power generation cost according to installed year with average production cost (with 2012 Martinique mix structure)

Average production cost with 50€/bbl

Average production cost with 100€/bbl

Average production cost with 150€/bbl

6 kWp PV system production cost in La Mar-tinique

1 MWp PV system power generation cost in La Martinique

€/M

Wh

EDF SEI HFO and LF

O

semi-b

ase LF

O PVW

indW

asteGlobal

0.0

200.0

400.0

Unitary cost (€/MWh)

PV SELF-CONSUMPTION TO ADD VALUE FOR PV AND INCREASE ITS INTEGRATION

Some limits to PV integrationIntermittencyNot 24 hours a dayVoltage inversionNo ancillary services

Technical requirements of PV self-consumption systems (~ CRE RFP)PV production smoothing through ramp control (15% Ppeak / 30min)ÞNo need of power reserves to compensate PV fluctuations

Minimum injection at peak time (20% of PV rated power from 19 to 21)ÞReduction of expensive peak LFO power generation

Power injection limitation (45% of power subscription) ÞNo more voltage impact on distribution grids

Primary frequency support (10% PV rated power and 15 min)Þ Positive impact for the electricity system

SIMULATIONS CARRIED OUT

SHS operation simulationModelling approaches:2 types: simulink with non-perfect control and matlab with perfect control

Domestic loads11 houses: 3, 6 and 9 kVA subscribtionPV3 locations x 3 PV sizing

Le Lamentin, Rivière Salée and Grand RivièreHouse power subscribtion x 2/3, 1 and 4/3

Batteries2 technologies x 3 battery sizingLead acid: 2h, 4h and 6h of power subscriptionLithium: 1h, 2h and 3h of house power subscriptionAgeingPV: linear ageing with timeBatteries: post-treatment computation considering calendar and cycling ageing

Economic data3 scenarios for feed-in and self-consumption tariffs1 scenario for system cost with two scenarios of loan rates3 scenarios for global mix cost assessment

GLOBAL ANALYSIS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT POINT OF VIEWS

Solar Home Systems

Martinique Electricity

Mix

Externalities:CO2 and air

quality

SHS installators

Public authorities

Global Martinique Economy

SIMPLIFIED INTERACTION DIAGRAMME AROUND SOLAR HOMES

Solar Home Systems

Martinique Electricity

Mix

EDF SEICRE CSPE

Externalities:CO2 and air

quality

SHS installators

Public authorities

Global Martinique Economy

Tax return

Buy

Pay taxes

Buyselectricity

Sells electricity

Produceselectricity

Consummeselectricity

Coversoverproductioncosts

Emissions Generatesactivity

Pay taxes

Martinique power grid

Develops &maintains

IMPACTS TO BE CONSIDERED DURING SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS ASSESSMENTS

Avoided fuel power generation costs and their negative externalitiesPower generation cost:

Fuel costs for oil @ 40/80/120 €/bblGHG: 15/30/45 €/TCO2Air quality: 36 €/MWh (based on CRE)

Grid development and maintenance cost50€/MWh for electricity consumed (from self-consumption as well)

UPS for adaptation to climate change and power quality12 €/kWh delivered in UPS (based on RTE customer satisfaction study)

Local jobs creation20 direct jobs per MW SHSIndirect jobs

MODELLING OF INCOMES FOR SHS

Avoided fuel power generation costs and their negative externalitiesPower generation cost:

Fuel costs for oil @ 40/80/120 €/bblGHG: 15/30/45 €/TCO2Air quality: 36 €/MWh (based on CRE)

Grid development and maintenance cost50€/MWh for electricity consumed (from self-consumption as well)

UPS for adaptation to climate change and power quality12 €/kWh delivered in UPS (based on RTE customer satisfaction study)

Local jobs creation20 direct jobs per MW SHSIndirect jobs Tax return and direct subsidies

Feed-inand self-consumption

tariffs

ELECTRICITY PRICES AND TARIFFS3 SCENARIOS WITH TIME-VARYING TARIFFS

€/MWh Feed-in tariff Self-consumption tariff

Electricity price from grid

06-19h and 21-00h 1. 2502. 2003. 150

1. 2002. 1503. 100

-130

Peak time 19-21h 1. 4102. 3303. 250

1. 3602. 2803. 200

-130

Night time 00-06h 1. 1802. 1453. 110

1. 1302. 953. 60

-130

Tax return and other subsidies : 1k€/kWp of system

View of tariffs for 2012.

Dynamic modelling of tariffs: 1% decrease over 10 years then constant tariffs (91% of 2012 tariffs)

MODELLING OF SHS COSTS

Initial installationPV panels and others €/kWp 1500Inverter-charger €/kVA 780Solar charger €/kWp 220Installation for PV €/kWp 520Lead-Acid €/kWh 150Lithium €/kWh 750Installation for batteries €/kWh 50

MaintenanceShare/year of investment 1%

Components replacementOthers €/kWp 300Inverter-charger €/kVA 780Solar charger €/kWp 220Installation for PV €/kWc 200Lead-Acid €/kWh 150

Lithium €/kWhDecreasing price to

250 in 10 yearsInstallation for batteries €/kWh 50

Modelling of loans as well:- 3% rate- 0% rate

« Static » modelling ofreplacement need:- PV equipment (not modules)

after 10 years- Batteries: at 80% of SOH

More optimal dynamicmodelling according to prices is possible

Exemple:- 6 kWp + 12 kWh Li-ion- 27k€ installation

Forecast on rapid decreaseof Li batteries prices

EXEMPLE OF SIMULATIONS RESULTS

Smoothing andmaximisation ofself-consumption

Peak production with limitation of injection @ 45%

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT FROM THE END-CUSTOMER POINT OF VIEW – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

low medium high-100

0

100

Tariff

RO

I (%

)

low medium high0

50

100

Tariff

(RO

I >

5 %

) (%

)

Loan 0% rate

low medium high-100

0

100

Tariff

RO

I (%

)

low medium high0

20

40

Tariff

(RO

I >

5 %

) (%

)

Loan 3% rate

GrandRiviere RiviereSalee LeLamentin-100

0

100

Location

RO

I (%

)

GrandRiviere RiviereSalee LeLamentin50

60

70X: 3Y: 68.52

Location

(RO

I >

5 %

) (%

)

X: 2Y: 68.52

Loan 0%, medium tariff

1 2 3-50

0

50

ESS energy (h)

RO

I (%

)

1 2 3

60

80

100

ESS energy (h)

(RO

I >

5 %

) (%

)

Liion

2 4 6-100

0

100

ESS energy (h)R

OI

(%)

2 4 60

50

100

ESS energy (h)

(RO

I >

5 %

) (%

)

Lead Acid

Loan 0%, medium tariff

2/3 1 4/3-100

0

100

PV installed capacity (pu of house power subscription)R

OI (

%)

2/3 1 4/3

60

80

100

PV installed capacity (pu of house power subscription)

(RO

I > 5

%) (

%)

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT FROM THE END-CUSTOMER POINT OF VIEW – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Projects feasibility according to tariffs and loan rateCurrently, no acceptable return with low tariffs, even with 0% rate loanWith medium and high tariffs, possible economically viable projects:•More than 50% are viable with 0% rate loan•With 3% rate loan, ~25% viable projects with medium tariffs and ~40% with high tariffs

This is with current system costs: with Li batteries prices going down, lower tariffs are possible.

Optimal sizing of systemPV size : better return with 1 kWp per kVA of power suscriptionBatteries:•Better return with Li-ion vs Lead-Acid•Better returun with battery sizing of 2kWh per kVA of power suscription•With « dynamic » sizing modelling, 1kWh could be a better option for Li

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT FROM THE END-CUSTOMER POINT OF VIEW – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Possible scenario of 25% integration of SHS

With prices going down, higher integration is possible with lower tariffs

Martinique domestic customers~ 164 000 customersSubscriptions: 3 kVA: ~25%+6 kVA: ~70%+9 kVA: ~5%SHS sizing : 1 power ratio and from 1 to 2 energy ratio vs house subscription

25% integration SHS scenario~ 41 000 customers~ 220 MWp of PV and 440 MWh of batteries in total

Power impact on the global mixPower generation impact (avoided global production) :

210 GWh during base+65 GWh at peak time+10 GWh at night45% of house consumption provided by PV-storage

Power capacity impact:Max SHS power during day time 60 MW with ramp rate controlAt peak time (or whenever), power capability of ~100 MW and 100 MWh22 MVA x 15 min of reserve for frequency regulation

25% INTEGRATION OF SHS SCENARIOTARIFFS COSTS, CSPE AND GRID REVENUES

Total costs: 55M€ for medium and 70M€ with high tariffs

CSPE: 40M€ with medium tariffs and 55M€ with high tariffs

+ 3.3 M€ for compensation of grid

revenue losses

This considers decreasing tariffs. Otherwie costs would be 60 and 75 M€.

Direct fuel power generation costDirect fuel costs + share of other variable costs + no fix costsGHG249 kTCO2 avoidedAir qualityCRE evaluates impact of fuel power generation on air quality is 36€/MWh

25% INTEGRATION OF SHS SCENARIOIMPACT ON ELECTRICITY MIX GLOBAL COST

M€ 40€/bbl 80€/bbl 120€/bbl

Fuel costs 23.7 47.4 71.2

Other variable costs (personnel, taxes,…)

11.5

Fix costs 13.2

M€ 15€/TCO2 30€/TCO2 45€/TCO2

GHG 3.7 7.5 11.2

Air quality 12.5

To be compared with tariff costs, grid development revenue compensation58.3 M€ for medium tariffs and 73.8 M€ for high tariffs

25% INTEGRATION OF SHS SCENARIOFEASIBLE SCENARIOS

Total costs in M€ considering 100% air quality cost

Fuel costs + 27% other variable cost40€/bbl 80€/bbl 120€/bbl

26.8 50.5 74.3

GHG costs

15€/TCO2 3.70 43.0 66.7 90.5   High and medium feasible30€/TCO2 7.5 46.8 70.5 94.3   Medium feasible. not high45€/TCO2 11.2 50.5 74.2 98.0   Close to medium feasibility (10% gap)

  no feasibility

Total costs in M€ considering 50% air quality cost

Fuel costs + 27% other variable cost40€/bbl 80€/bbl 120€/bbl

26.8 50.5 74.3

GHG costs

15€/TCO2 3.70 36.8 60.5 84.330€/TCO2 7.5 40.6 64.3 88.145€/TCO2 11.2 44.3 68.0 91.8

Total costs in M€ considering no air quality cost

Fuel costs + 27% other variable cost40€/bbl 80€/bbl 120€/bbl

26.8 50.5 74.3

GHG costs

15€/TCO2 3.70 30.5 54.2 78.030€/TCO2 7.5 34.3 58.0 81.845€/TCO2 11.2 38.0 61.7 85.5

Other scenarios can be considered if taking into account more share ofvariable costs and some share of fix costs

No impact on EDF SEI jobs, nor on fuel plant capacity

25% integration SHS scenario~ 41 000 customers~ 220 MWp of PV and 440 MWh of batteries in totalÞ~10 MWp and 20 MWh of batteries installed per yearÞ~1700 domestic customers equipped with SHS per year

Economic impact of 25% integration SHS scenarioFor installation activity: 20 jobs per MWp installed of SHS:

10 jobs per MWp PV + 5 jobs per MWh installedPossible creation of local industry for system integration and assembly:

1h per kWh + 1h per kWc + management/administration

25% INTEGRATION OF SHS SCENARIOIMPACT ON LOCAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Direct local jobs: 200

Possible local assembly : 25 jobs

Direct jobs could be a little less considering a reduced battery sizing.

CONCLUSIONS

SHS deployment scenarios with benefits for each actor FEASIBLE25% SHS integration:•41 000 customers•220 MWp of PV and 440 MWh of batteries in total

Global feasibility conditions for medium tariffs :• 80 €/bbl for oil• 30€/TCO2 for GHG and no air quality externalitiesOr 15€/TCO2 for GHG and 50% air quality externalitiesAlmost feasible without no air quality cost if 15€/TCO2

Best system sizing:1 kWp per kVA of house power subscription1 to 2 kWh per kVA of house power subscription

Feedback and some possible improvementsAcces of data and transparency : need for a global and open partnershipFine tuning of tariffs & tax return schemes

80€/bbl

01/2005 05/2005