Foot-and-Mouth Disease Attack on the Midwest U. S.

Foot-and-Mouth DiseaseAttack on the Midwest U. S.

Purpose

To develop and evaluate a plausible scenario for an attack on the Midwest United States using Foot-and-Mouth disease virus.

The scenario is designed to facilitate discussions on broad agricultural preparedness and response issues

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is

an extremely contagious, viral disease of domestic cloven-hoofed and many wild animals, characterized by fever, vesicular lesions and, subsequent erosions of the epithelium of the mouth, tongue, nares, muzzle, feet, and teats.

Availability of FMD Virus

FMD Virus is easily obtained in many countries of the world

Distribution and Recent Activity

PresentRecent ActivityFree

1999 2000 2001 (Rev. 3-27-01)

FMD Virus Stability

pH Sensitive: <6.5 or >11.0 UV Sensitive: (sun light) Survives in moist, organic-rich

materials

FMD Transmission Aerosols

Direct contact

Meat products

Fomites

FMD - Epidemiology Morbidity: >95% Mortality:

Adults <1% Neonates >50%

Carrier state: in cattle (6-24 months)

FMD- Cattle Tongue Lesions

FMD – Swine Feet & Snout Lesions

APHIS Response

Goal: To detect, control and eradicate the disease agent as quickly as possible to return the United States to free status

The scope of the disaster will vary by the speed of the response Multiple foci Real time exponential growth

Risk Factors for Spread of FMD

Animal density Animal concentration points Livestock movements

Livestock markets Sale Barns Fairs and shows

People movements Wildlife Climate

Population at Risk

Model Assumptions

Limited to one location 11 days from exposure to detection For 60 day period Limited livestock movement No climatic factors No wildlife spread No people spread

Introduction of FMD

Single foreign operative introduces FMD virus into a single cattle herd in the United States Midwest

Day 1

Total = 13 Farms Affected

Quarantined States

National Activities

Movement controls (temporary) animals in transit continue to destination, no further movements allowed

Intensive surveillance National and international

communications

Zones of Control Infected zone

Quarantined area around the infected or presumed infected premises, (10km – 6mi as starting point)

May be alter based on weather, terrain, wildlife, livestock concentrations, etc

Surveillance zone Restricted area around the infected zone May initially include the entire affected state

and those in close proximity to infected zone Will be modified pending tracing and

surveillance results

Infected Zone Activities Intensive epidemiological

investigations of farmed animals and wildlife

Perimeter movement controls of roads Animals or animal products stopped Conveyances and people decontaminated

Depopulation and decontamination of infected farms

Surveillance Zone Activities Case finding

Livestock concentration points Sick calls

Awareness campaign Tracing contacts with infected animals

and premises We presume 8 contacts per farm per week Livestock, vehicles, people and materials

Vaccination of a buffer zone around infected farms if efficacious

Appraisal – Depopulation - Disposal

Appraise affected animals and dispose of them as close to the affected premises as possible – within 12-24 hours of culling

Estimated requirements are 5 workers per herd of 40 animals per day for depopulation and disposal

Average herd size = 200 animals

Decontamination of Premises

Thorough cleaning and disinfecting of facilities, products and equipment

3 people per farm per day for each 40 animals in herd

Day 5All

Total = 64 Affected Farms

Total = 3091 Affected Farms

Day 25

Day 60

Total = 5844 Affected Farms

Analysis

Scenario suggested a single operative infecting a single farm but multiple farms would be more likely and could effectively spread FMD nationwide

Computer model showed that with the single introduction there would be 5844 affected farms within 60 days

Analysis 200 animals on each farm $350 to appraise each farm $5.50 euthanasia for each animal $325 indemnity for each animal $15 to dispose of each animal $8,000 to clean and disinfect each

farm $3,200 further surveillance cost from

each affected premises

Analysis

Appraise$ 2.04M Euthanasia $ 6.43M Indemnity $379.86M Disposal $ 17.53M Clean/Disinfect $ 46.75M Surveillance $ 18.71M Total for ONE incident $471.32M

Analysis

Export Losses with our markets closed Live Animals Germplasm Animal Feed Human Food Animal Byproducts

$Millions?? $Billions??