FOODSECURE scenario approach to integrate modellers and

FOODSECURE scenario approach to

integrate modellers and stakeholders

contributions

Hans van Meijl (LEI) and Ewa Tabeau (LEI)

FOODSECURE Conference, Addis Ababa, 7-9 October 2013

MODELLING AND SCENARIOS IN FOODSECURE

• WP5

• WP7

• WP9

• WP10

• WP11

ALL TAKE A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE:

• WP5: to integrate the views from stakeholders on FNS futures into the project, in terms

of explorative scenarios, normative views & options, and roadmapping / Navigator on

FNS futures

• WP7: to provide foresight on FNS towards 2050, by modelling the impact of long-term

supply drivers and drivers of food and non-food (energy) demand in several scenarios

• WP9: to advance technological and institutional prospects and to seek pathways to

sustainably enhance FNS at international and local level

• WP10: to assess local FNS policy strategies and the coherence of EU aid and

development policies

• WP11: to identify pathways to more coherent and effective EU policies in the area of

trade, agriculture, energy and macroeconomic stabilisation, in a way that promotes

global FNS

WP5, WP7, WP9, WP10, WP11

• Stakeholders play an important role in FOODSECURE scenario research

• Stakeholders produce exploratory scenarios, normative visions and road-

mapping / Navigator in WP5

• These are building blocks of an integrated foresight framework for

assessment of alternative policy options on FNS

• Results from the integrated foresight framework are needed for external

audiences and become part of the Navigator

• Stakeholders enhance the Navigator to meet the needs of external users

WP5: What do stakeholders do?

WP5 builds on the Story and

Simulation approach (Alcamo 2008)

• Basic idea: to explore futures of

human-natural systems by

combining simulation models

with qualitative storylines

• Central assumption:

combination of ‘qualitative’ with

‘quantitative’ scenario

approaches benefits from the

advantages of both

WP5: How stakeholders results are absorbed?

Source: Kosow, 2011

WP5 Timeline

Vienna Feb 2013 - modellers

Bruges Sep 2013 – 1st stakeholders

Feb 2014 – 2nd stakeholders

Nov 2015 – roadmapping/ Navigator

Nov 2014 -1st visions & options

Feb 2015 – 2nd visions & options

SAS

WP7: A computational laboratory of scenarios

for the future

• Scenarios to quantify the world market impact and FNS

impact of the exploratory scenarios developed in WP-5

(stakeholders scenarios)

• Strategies to address policy outcomes studied in Guidance

WP-9, WP-10 and WP-11

(policy “what if we do”)

Scenarios to be produced in FOODSECURE

What are scenarios?

• “Plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may

develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of

assumptions on key driving forces and relationships” (Carpenter et al.

2005)

• Scenarios differ from facts, forecasts, predictions and speculations

• But include explorations and projections

Herman Kahn, the ‘father’

of scenario thinking

How are scenarios produced?

Source: PBL, 2012

Van Dijk 2012: Review of recent scenario studies

Number

Total number of scenarios 43

Total number of studies 12

Global assessments 2

Report by international institutions 9

Journal article 1

Main focus

Food security and climate change 1

Food supply and prices 6

Ecosystems 1

Climate change 1

Biofuels 1

Environmental change 2

Including: IFPRI, Oxfam, Agrimonde, IAASTD, FAO, MA.

Food security outcomes

• Food prices (8 studies)

• Calorie availability (8 studies)

• Undernourishment (3 studies)

• Child malnutrition (4 studies)

Long run drivers: Income and population growth

Agriculture at Crossroads (2010) -

International Assessment of

Agricultural Knowledge, Science,

and Technology for Development

(IAASTD).

World Agriculture Towards

2030/2050 (WAT2050) -

FAO.

Food price scenarios: Cereals

Undernourishment scenarios

Stylized model of (long run) food security: conventional drivers

Food and

Nutrition Security Availability

Access

Utilization Supply

Land (degradation)

Water (scarcity)

R&D & Technical change

Climate change

Demand

Population growth

Urbanisation

Income growth

Food system Value chains

Prices

Trade

Policies

Institutions

Stylized model of (long run) food security: upcoming drivers

Food and

Nutrition Security Availability

Access

Utilization Supply

Land (degradation)

Water (scarcity)

R&D & Technical change

Climate change

Ecosystem services

Demand

Population growth

Urbanisation

Income growth

Poverty and inequality

Diets

Bio-energy and bio-materials

Food system Value chains

Prices

Trade

Policies

Institutions

Stylized model of (long run) food security: new drivers

Food and

Nutrition Security Availability

Access

Utilization Supply

Land (degradation)

Water (scarcity)

R&D & Technical change

Climate change

Ecosystem services

Post harvest losses

Alternative sources (e.g. insects)

Farm structure

Demand

Population growth

Urbanisation

Income growth

Poverty and inequality

Diets

Bio-energy and bio-materials

Food waste

Food system Value chains

Prices

Trade

Policies

Institutions

Conclusions: future research agenda

• More scenario studies needed that focus exclusively on food and nutrition

security (now only one)

• Studies and models should provide more detailed assessments of food

accessibility and food nutrition

• Several key (new) driving forces should be addressed, in particular: farm

structure, bio-based economy, inequality and food waste

• Make sure global-level analysis is based on local micro-level insights

Several more aspects to be addressed in FOODSECURE:

• implications of endogenous technology change, climate change, and scarce

production factors, such as land, water and soil nutrients for FNS at various

levels

• Scenarios that take into account household distribution and nutrition

Thank you