Food Security in Complex Emergencies A Challenge for FAO Prabhu Pingali, Director, ESA INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP 23 – 25 SEPTEMBER 2003, TIVOLI, ITALY.

Food Security in Complex Emergencies

A Challenge for FAO

Prabhu Pingali, Director, ESAINTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

23 – 25 SEPTEMBER 2003, TIVOLI, ITALY

Our Concerns with Food Security in Complex Emergencies

• Major ESA research themes• The incidence in low-income countries• From emergency relief to rebuilding food systems

resilience• Policy and planning framework for longer-term

food security responses• Critical component of the FAO/EC Food Security

Programme

Trends in Causes of Food Emergencies

Source: FAO

Numbers of countries affected

Countries Facing Food Emergencies in 2003

Total38

Africa25

Asia 6

Latin America 5

Europe 2Source: GIEWS

Main Cause of Emergencies in the African Countries in 2003

Total 25

Human Induced 9

Weather Induced 9

Combined: Human and Weather 7

ODA and Emergency Assistance in Developing Countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

ODA excl. emerg. Assistance emergency assistance

ODA excl. emergency assistancebillion US$

emergency assistancebillion US$ Developing countries

End of Cold War

Source FAO: OECD datasets

Food Aid for Natural and Human Induced Emergencies

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Human induced emergencies

Natural emergencies

million US$

13 Countries Facing Complex Emergencies: People Affected,Food Aid and ODA

0

5

10

15

20

25

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 010.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00 Sudan

Somalia

Sierra Leone

Rwanda

P alestine

Liberia

Congo, Dem Rep

Burundi

Angola

Afghanistan

emergency food aid(100 millionUS$) ODA excl. FA (billionUS$)

millions of people affected US$

Conflicts: People Affected, ODA, Emergency Assistance

Congo, Dem. Rep.

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

million people affected

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

million US$

million people affected emergency assistance (million US$)

ODA excl. EA (million US$)

Sudan

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

million people affected

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

million US$

million people affected emergency assistance (million US$)ODA excl. EA (million US$)

Somalia

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

million people affected

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

million US$

million people affected emergency assistance (million US$)

ODA excl. EA (million US$)

May 1997 Mobutu Departure

Source FAO: OECD and CRED datasets

Per Capita Emergency Assistance and ODA

Sudan

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.0

USD

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Affected

Somalia

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0USD

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Congo, Dem. Rep.

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0120.0140.0

USD

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Affected

Emergency assistance USD per head

ODA USD per capita

Million people affected

Dimensions of Food SecurityAvailability Access Stability

Domestic production

Import capacity

Food aid

Income distribution / Poverty

Access to assets (e. g. land)

Markets and infrastructure capacity

Weather variability

Price variability

Security and political stability

Impact of Conflict on Food Availability

Impact of Conflict on Access to Food

– People directly affected by conflict;– Displaced persons loosing access to their

food entitlements;– Persons trapped in conflict zones cut-off from

market links and relief food;– Those loosing employment and income as a

result of fighting, economic decline and informal taxation (war tax).

Impact of Conflict on Stability of Food Supply and Access

• impacts on prices and markets;

• exacerbates the effects of natural disasters;

• weakens institutions– safety nets– insurances

Complex Emergencies Beyond Conflict

• Large Scale Epidemics (e. g. HIV/AIDS);

• Macro-economic policy failures

…may create crisis with similar food security implications as those involving violent conflict, particularly when combined with institutional breakdown and collapse.

HIV/AIDS and Food Security

Determinant Effects of the Pandemic on

Availability labour, productive capital, agricultural knowledge

Access Decline in household disposable income, breakdown of traditional safety nets

Stability Viability of institutions and markets

Food Security and Economic Collapse

Determinant

Availability Food import capacity decline

Access to technology

Access Loss of employment sources

and safety nets

“Agriculture as a buffer”

Stability Market price variation, market disruption, economic

collapse

ConclusionsWe need to:• better understand the factors that contribute to the

resilience of agricultural and food systems in protracted complex emergencies;

• develop new approaches to designing flexible, principled support to that resilience in situations subject to political manipulation and rapid change;

• establish responsive policy and planning frameworks capable of putting these approaches into effect;

• make sure that these frameworks use field research and information systems that can adequately capture the complexity of complex emergencies.

Thank you

WWW. FAO.ORG/ESA

WWW.FAO.ORG/CRISISANDHUNGER