Food Security, Human Health and Climate Variability Pietro Ceccato, Madeleine Thomson, Stephen Connor The International Research Institute for Climate.

Food Security, Human Health and Climate Variability

Food Security, Human Health and Climate Variability

Pietro Ceccato, Madeleine Thomson, Stephen ConnorPietro Ceccato, Madeleine Thomson, Stephen Connor

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia UniversityThe Earth Institute, Columbia University

IRI Climate Forecast Products

IRI Application Sectors

When we think about health we have to have a broad perspective and include food security which impacts nutrition and immunity level to diseases

Human Health & Food Security

Case surveillance alone = late warning

Flag 1 – Flag 2 – Flag 3

Alert & Response

Malaria Early Warning System

Malaria and Climate Variability

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Very Low incidence (Jan/Oct peaks)

00.05

0.10.150.2

0.250.3

0.350.4

0.45

Moderate incidence East (Jan peak)

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101520253035404550

Moderate incidence West (Oct peak)

High incidence (Oct peak)

Low incidence (Jan/Oct peak)

Malaria distribution in Eritrea

Ceccato et al., 2006 in Am. Soc Trop Med & Hyg

Eritrea Case StudyMalaria and Climate Variability

Data and Products Malaria

Data and Products Malaria

Data and Products Malaria

Minimum Air Temperature Monitoring

MODIS LST night (highlands in Ethiopia)

Malaria: Vectorial Capacity V = ma2Pn/-lnP

proportion ofvectors surviving

feeding cycle

Temperature

humanbloodindex

humanpopulation

gontrophiccycle length

mosquitopopulation

probability ofdailly survival

Rainfallratio of humansto mosquitoes

human bitingrate

sporogoniccycle length

human bitinghabit

probability ofsurviving

sporogeny

VectoralCapacity

productionfactor

Temperature MODIS LST

RainfallTRMM

VCAP

Vectorial Capacity

Vectorial Capacity (USGS-IRI)

Malaria Transmission

Integrate the data and dynamical maps within:Integrate the data and dynamical maps within:

•UN WHO OpenHealth/ Vector Control Decision UN WHO OpenHealth/ Vector Control Decision SupportSupport

•NASA SERVIRNASA SERVIR

Improve Accessibility and Diffusion of Data

Integration IRI Malaria Products

IRI Map Room translated into layers for WMS integrated within WHO Vector Control Decision System

SERVIR Integration

• IRI Summer Institute (2 weeks) 2008-2009-2010-2011-…

• In Countries: Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Uruguay

Build and Train Community of Practice

International Research Institute

for Climate and Society (IRI)