following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Examining the truth behind the myth of the 'the Monstrous Army on the March' Dylan Kneale & Heather Joshi Institute of Education Social Polarisation in the timing of First Birth
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following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Examining the truth behind the myth of the 'the Monstrous Army on the March'
Dylan Kneale & Heather Joshi
Institute of Education
Social Polarisation in the timing of First Birth
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Background I
Recognition that rates of transition to parenthood are decreasing - Men and women are postponing parenthood or avoiding parenthood altogether.
Known patterns of social polarisation in age at first birth. Early parenthood associated with a range of negative predictive characteristics and outcomes for parents and children.
Recent interest has focussed upon role of education in determining rates of transition to parenthood.
In particular, education differentials have been isolated as markers of increasing polarisation in age at first birth.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Background II
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Background & Aims (Wolf): Graduate women = 'the Monstrous Army on the
March' What about graduate men – monstrous army still marching? Focus has been on increasing polarisation and rising
childlessness – but several different scenarios possible In addition are differentials caused by different sample
composition within groups, postponement or genuine decreased levels of transition?
Aims: Explore polarisation within and between two birth cohorts Examine the situation for males – increasing polarisation
too? Examine some of the determinants of fertility differentials
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Data I
Analysis will use data from two British Birth Cohorts – National Child Development Study (NCDS, 1958) and the British Cohort Survey (BCS70, 1970).
Both studies began as a census of all UK births in a week, with additions in childhood waves.
In total, data for 18,558 and 18,731 collected at some point for NCDS and BCS70 respectively.
Attrition has affected both studies, with sample sizes at the last wave of data collection totalling around 9,500 for both.
However, population estimates of fertility transition appear consistent with external data (for women)
Comparison of Birth Cohort Motherhood Rates with National Statistics estimates for England and Wales
BCS70 Tertiary Qualified Males: CovariateSpecific Postponed Flight From Parenthood
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Results III: Intermediate and No Qualifications
Cohort and Projection Method
Intermediate Qualificati
ons
No Qualificati
ons
♂ ♀ ♂ ♀Childle
ss at 45
Childless at 45
Childless at 45
Childless at 45
NCDS 20.5%
13.9%
24.3%
10.5%
BCS70 – NCDS Parenthood Rates 29.8%
18.0%
32.0%
16.7%
BCS70 – Postponed NCDS Parenthood Rates
21.7%
13.5%
24.1%
11.0%
BCS70 – Flight from Parenthood 35.0%
19.7%
33.9%
17.6%
BCS70 – Covariate Specific Flight from Parenthood
35.0%
19.6%
34.3%
17.7%
BCS70 – Covariate Specific Postponed Flight from Parenthood
28.5%
15.5%
27.9%
13.1%
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Increasing rates of polarisation? Distinctive patterns of parenthood based on educational
achievement in both cohorts. For women, relative proportions entering motherhood by
highest qualification level expected to stay constant – childlessness expected to rise gradually among all groups.
For men, gap in fatherhood rates between education levels is projected to change in some scenarios.
Gap between tertiary qualified and males with no and intermediate qualifications could widen–myth of monstrous women replaced by monstrous male graduates?
Gap between males with no and intermediate qualifications could narrow.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Tertiary Qualified I: Vocational Vs Academic
Cohort and Projection Method
♂ ♀Childles
s at 45 -
Academic
Childless at 45 -
Vocational
Childless at 45 -
Academic
Childless at 45 -
Vocational
NCDS 24.8% 17.1% 26.7% 19.1%
BCS70 – NCDS Parenthood Rates
28.2% 23.6% 27.8% 20.3%
BCS70 – Postponed NCDS Parenthood Rates
25.6% 22.3% 26.5% 17.5%
BCS70 – Flight from Parenthood
37.1%*32.9%*
*30.5%*
**22.4%*
**
BCS70 – Covariate Specific Flight from Parenthood
37.3%*31.0%*
***** ****
BCS70 – Covariate Specific Postponed Flight from Parenthood
35.0%*25.7%*
*29.3%¹ 19.8%¹
*Using 19-32 observation time; **Using 16-32 observation time; ***Using 20-32 observation time; **** Cohort effect drops out of significance when introducing other covariates; ¹Unadjusted cohort effect is used;
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Tertiary Qualified II: Subject of qualification
37%
45% 46%49%
64%
58%62%
45%41% 40%
55%
41%
51%
44%47%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Education,Humanities andCreative Arts
Science, Maths,Technology, Health,
Social Care,Medicine
Social Sciencesincluding Business,Finance and Law
Other MiscVocational Subjects
NCDS Males
BCS70 Males
NCDS Females
BCS70 Females
•Childlessness at 34; results for academic graduates
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Measuring Postponement and Infertility Information on intentions to bear children and infertility of cohort
member and/or partner collected in both cohorts. This information gives the first indications that BCS70 cohort is
postponing as opposed to avoiding parenthood.
NCDS
Infertile/ Partner Infertile, 10.3%
Fertile and Categorically not children,
26.0%
Fertile and Open to
having more children, 16.1%
Fertile and don't know intentions,
13.3%
Fertility Intentions
and Infertility Status
Unknown, 34.2%
BCS70
Fertile and Open to
having more children, 46.1%
Infertile/ Partner
Infertile, 8.9%
Fertile and Categorically
not want children, 22.0%
Fertile and don't know intentions,
16.9%
Fertility Intentions and
Infertility Status
Unknown, 6.1%
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Results IV: The impact of postponement – Tertiary Qualified Males
21.7%
29.8%25.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45
Age
Pro
por
tion
Entrin
g F
ather
hoo
d
NCDS Tertiary Qualified Males(Observed)
BCS70 Tertiary Qualified Males(Unadjusted)
BCS70 Tertiary Qualified Males(Adjusted for Postponement andInfertility)
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Results V: The impact of postponement – Tertiary Qualified Females
23.4%
28.7%25.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45
Age
Pro
portio
n E
ntrin
g M
oth
erhood
NCDS Tertiary QualifiedFemales Observed
BCS70 Tertiary QualifiedFemales (Unadjusted)
BCS70 Tertiary QualifiedFemales (Adjusted forPostponement and Infertility)
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Conclusions I
Social Polarisation is evident in age at first birth. Higher education levels obtained are correlated with later
transition to parenthood. Delay appears to have affected males with tertiary
qualifications disproportionately. Populations stratified by education level are not
homogeneous between cohorts. Partial estimates that do not fully take postponement and
infertility into account predict higher rates of childlessness for all populations stratified by education level.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Conclusions II When postponement and infertility are factored in, projected
childlessness could actually drop. Polarisation remains in age of transition although attenuated for final transition rates.
However, this could well be offset by higher rates of unintended childlessness.
Mirowsky (2005) suggests 34 years to be the optimum age for childbearing taking into account socioeconomic and biological factors.
In terms of intentions at least, little truth in ‘monstrous army on the march’ for women (or men).
Future Work: Project flight from parenthood scenario using infertility and
postponement information
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