Folie 1 Mature Convection: DLR activities presented by Caroline Forster DLR - Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Convection Working Group Meeting Landshut, Germany 8-10 October 2009
Folie 1 Mature Convection: DLR activities presented by Caroline Forster DLR - Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Convection Working.
Dec 27, 2015
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Folie 1
Mature Convection: DLR activities
presented by Caroline Forster
DLR - Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Convection Working Group Meeting
Landshut, Germany
8-10 October 2009
Folie 2
Detection, tracking, nowcasting of convective clouds and precipitation cells
Operational for research purposes since spring 2008
Cb-TRAMMETEOSAT: combination of HRV, IR, and WV3 Cb development stagesNowcasting up to 60 minutes
Rad-TRAMDWD radar composite37 dBZ thresholdNowcasting up to 60 minutes
Folie 3
Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting
POLDIRADsurface observations
cloud trackerradar tracker
lightning
User-specifiedTarget WeatherObject
TWO
SYNPOLRADlocal forecast
ensembleforecast
SYNRAD
SYNSATobject
comparison
forecast validationforecast validation
FusionTracking Nowcast (0 -1 hrs)Forecast (1 - 6 hrs)
TWO
Integrated thunderstorm forecast system for the airports Munich
and Frankfurt (DLR project "Wetter und Fliegen")
This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167.It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 4
Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009
Cb information for pilotsCb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)
19.08.200814:05 UTC
Cb top (orange)
Cb bottom(yellow, pink)
This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167.It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 5
Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009
19.08.200814:15 UTC
Cb top (orange)
Cb bottom(yellow, pink)
Cb information for pilotsCb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)
This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167.It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 6
Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009
19.08.200814:25 UTC
Cb top (orange)
Cb bottom(yellow, pink)
Cb information for pilotsCb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)
Folie 7Vortragstitel
example: ec-TRAM nowcasting map (detail) with cell contours, tracks and prognoses of an electrically charged ‚ec-cell‘.
radar cell: Reflectivity map (blue shaded) cell track (white line), actual cell contour (white polygons), cell prognoses for 10 minutes (dark grey polygons), and 20 minutes (light grey polygons)
lightning cell: discharge events clustered for 3 minutes (green crosses) actual cell (red polygon)
ec-TRAM (Vera Meyer, PhD thesis)
tracking and monitoring of electrically charged convective cells
Folie 8Vortragstitel
Probabilistic Nowcasting (Kirstin Kober, PhD thesis)
Rad-TRAM-prob: 12.08.2007 23:15UTC
15min 30min 60min
Folie 9Vortragstitel
lightning parameterisation in the COSMO-DE model (Johannes Dahl, PhD thesis)
COSMO-DE model LINET observations
Folie 10Vortragstitel
Folie 11
Convective Initiation: DLR activities
presented by Caroline Forster
DLR - Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Convection Working Group Meeting
Landshut, Germany
8-10 October 2009
Folie 12
Cb-TRAM using METEOSAT-9 data (combination of HRV, IR, WV)
case study 04.07.2006
yellow: onset of convection
orange: rapid development
red: mature thunderstorm
grey: 15 and 30 Min. nowcast
This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167.It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 13
Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009
Cb initiation information for pilotsCb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)
07.08.200813:29 UTC
Cb top (cyan, blue, orange)
Cb bottom(yellow, pink)
07.08.200813:39 UTC
Cb top (cyan, blue, orange)
Cb bottom(yellow, pink)
07.08.200813:49 UTC
Cb top (cyan, blue, orange)
Cb bottom(yellow, pink)
07.08.200813:50 UTC
Cb top (cyan, blue, orange)
Cb bottom(yellow, pink)
Folie 14
Early detection of convection through a combination of different data
sources (Dennis Stich, PhD thesis, just started on 28 September 2009)
Goal:
to examine different data sources (satellite, surface obs, model data, radiosondes ...) with regard to (typical) developments in the early initiation stage
to develop an algorithm that extends the nowcasting horizon to the early initiation stage by
combining different data sources
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