Folie 1 - International Textile Manufacturers Federation

1

Global Textile Industry OutlookDr Christian Schindler, ITMF Director General

ITMF Annual Conference 2019Porto, PortugalOctober 21, 2019

Represent Connect InformNational Associations & CompaniesFiber | Machinery | Chemical | Textile & Apparel

Representing90% of Global Textile Production

«After a long period of expansion, the global textile industry is facing a slow down. When the bottom will be

reached, is of course the bigquestion. »

Economiclandscape

Key trends Shipmentstatistics

Economic Landscape

Billi

on U

S$

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

World Textile Exports100

200

300

400

500

600

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

World Clothing Exports

2017

and

is slowing down

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015Other EU28 China Bangladesh India Vietnam

The growth of

Sources: WTO

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015Other EU28 China India Vietnam Bangladesh

World Textiles Exports

Billi

on U

S$

Sources: WTO

2018 30% 38%32%

Share of G7 and E7 to World GDP

1990 51% 27% 22%

2018 30% 38%

2030

32%

27% 50%23%

Sources: Handelsblatt 23.08.2018, Euromonitor

[Billion US$] 2018* 2023* CAGR**China 301'619 367'186 4%India 57'488 97'195 11%Indonesia 10'091 14'631 8%Brazil 38'102 48'727 5%Russia 29'608 37'114 5%Mexico 15'765 20'997 6%Turkey 18'197 25'519 7%Subtotal (E7) 470'870 611'368 5%

[Billion US$] 2018* 2023* CAGR**Japan 66'649 70'376 1%Canada 27'815 31'388 2%USA 277'376 316'042 3%France 35'641 36'600 1%Germany 64'461 68'660 1%Italy 35'242 36'895 1%United Kingdom 57'088 64'662 3%Subtotal (G7) 564'270 624'623 2%

[Billion US$] 2018* 2023* CAGR**World 1'412'424 1'716'738 4%

*Retail value RSP in USD bn, current prices, fixed 2017 exchange rate **Mean annual growth rate 2018 to 2023 (%)

Retail Value in the G7 and E7 countries

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

mill

ion

tons

Cotton Wool Cellulosic Staple

Cellulosic Filament Polyester Staple Polyester Filament

Nylon Staple Nylon Filament Polypropylene (Filament + Staple)

Acrylic

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

mill

ion

tons




Acrylic

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

mill

ion

tons




Acrylic

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

mill

ion

tons




Acrylic

CottonWool Polyester Filament

Polyester StapleCellulosic FilamentCellulosic Staple

AcrylicPolypropylene (Filament + Staple)

Nylon StapleNylon Filament

Growth of Global Textile Mill Consumption

2017 2020 GrowthCotton * 24.5 25.00 2%

Wool * 1.15 1.17 2%

Cellulosic (staple) 4.28 5.10 19%

Cellulosic (filament) 0.27 0.29 10%Polyester (staple) 16.80 17.58 5%Polyester (filament) 35.50 39.28 11%Nylon (staple) 4.26 4.71 11%Nylon (filament) 0.19 0.22 14%Polypropylene (staple) 0.35 0.37 6%Polypropylene (filament) 1.65 1.9 15%Acrylic 1.68 1.69 0%

Source: PCI-Fibres (2017)* Consumption figures

Cellu

losic

& P

olye

ster

China

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Turkey

Africa/Middle East

Chinese Taipei

North America

India

Japan

South Asia

South Korea

Latin America

Australasia

5.66 16%

48.89 9%

6.96 17%

3.19 12%

2.69 7%

1.79 1%

1.75 27%

1.67 -2%

0.9 13%

0.9 14%

0.88 18%

0.66 -2%

0.05 6%

MMF Production and Growth

Total Fibre Production 75.99 10%

2020 2017 [million

tons] 2020-

Source: PCI-Fibres (2017)

Source : Euromonitor 2018

Example : Apparel& Footwear[Growth of Retail Value]

Online

Changing consumption Patterns

Environmental sustainability

Transparency & Traceability

Protectionism

Key Trends

Industry 4.0

Faster Less labor-intensive

Less energy-intensive

Less water-intensive

Historic Trends

Vorführender

Präsentationsnotizen

Technological enhancement influenced all stages of the textile and clothing industry over the past decades. One example is the cotton farming / cotton growing sector. Cotton production, for instance, has become more advanced. Over the past fifty years the output of cotton per acre increased steadily. Similar developments apply to the textile and garment / clothing production. Especially, the textile production has seen a trend to less labour and less energy intensive production. Moreover, the raw material is becoming more advanced. Synthetic or manmade fibres are becoming more and more important. Compared to natural products such as cotton and wool they have certain advantages. Production is cheaper than for cotton and wool. While quality and availability of natural products differs, this is not the case for manmade fibers

Industry 4.0

The Internet OF THINGS

Mass CUSTOMISATION

PHYSICAL DIGITAL

BIG DATA

Environmental sustainability

Manfacturing trends presented above

Changes in sales & consumption patterns

… if you do not help us recycleAreas of research

Transparency & Traceability

- Increasing national sentiment among countries and political leaders affecting countries’ national and international political and economic positions

Source: WEF - Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018

Protectionism

- Inability to reach agreement on key issues within countries because of diverging or extreme values, political or religious views

- Shifting power from state to non-state actors and individuals, from global to regional levels, and from developed to emerging market and developing economies

Textile Machinery Shipment Statistics

ITMSS Shipment Statistics

8.68.7

5

10

15

20

Shipped Short-Staple SpindlesWorld

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(million units)

+2%

YonY% [2018]

Vorführender


PeriodShort-Staple 20097'204'360 20088'640'308 200712'796'210 200611'740'524 20059'934'024 200410'567'336 20038'157'556 20025'531'060 20014'939'390 20004'969'280 19992'548'996 19983'362'082 19974'616'688 19962'891'835 19955'507'392 19945'811'792 19934'524'336 19925'590'452 19916'956'631 19906'806'877 19895'963'114 19886'086'085 19874'821'286 19864'112'512 19854'319'036 19844'524'319 19831'530'423 19821'828'208 19814'474'462 19805'849'973 19793'122'922 19782'238'728 19771'983'322 19762'970'534 19753'061'977 19743'544'659


97% 96% 94% 94% 93% 91% 91% 93% 95% 92%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Shipped Short-Staple SpindlesBy Regions (Share to World Total)

Asia and Oceania Europe, Others America, NorthAfrica Europe, West America, South

China'sshare

70% 63% 62% 61% 54% 45% 36% 46% 46% 44%

Vorführender




0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.3

3.8

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

Egypt

Iran

Indonesia

Pakistan

Turkey

Bangladesh

Uzbekistan

Vietnam

India

China

Shipped Short-Staple Spindles10 Biggest Investors (2018) (million units)

Vorführender




+21%

YonY% [2018]

638

770

0

200

400

600

800

1’000

Shipped RotorsWorld

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(thousand units)


83% 83% 81%90%

79%

64%

81%92%

85%92%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Shipped RotorsBy Regions (Share to World Total)

Asia and Oceania Europe, Others America, South Europe, WestAfrica America, North Europe, East

China'sshare

55%72% 68%

81%61%

36%64% 74% 67% 60%


6

9

12

13

14

34

41

53

93

461

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Hong Kong, China

Tadzhikistan

Indonesia

Pakistan

Brazil

Turkey

Uzbekistan

Vietnam

India

China

Shipped Rotors10 Biggest Investors (2018) (thousand units)


341

513

0

200

400

600

800

1’000

Shipped Texturing SpindlesWorld

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(thousand units)

+50%

YonY% [2018]


89% 92% 94% 90% 90% 87%79% 83%

90% 93%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Shipped Texturing SpindlesBy Regions (Share to World Total)

Asia and Oceania Europe, Others America, South Europe, WestAfrica America, North Europe, East

China'sshare 56%

70% 75% 68% 72% 61% 56% 57% 66% 68%


3

3

4

4

5

7

9

17

49

351

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Iran

Honduras

United Kingdom

Myanmar

Indonesia

Turkey

India

Vietnam

Japan

China

Shipped Texturing Spindles10 Biggest Investors (2018) (thousand units)


96

134

0

50

100

150

200

Shipped Shuttle-Less LoomsWorld

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(thousand units)

+39%

YonY% [2018]


96% 97% 97% 93% 92% 90% 93% 91% 91% 94%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Shipped Shuttle-Less LoomsBy Regions (Share to World Total)

Asia and Oceania Europe, Others Africa Europe, WestEurope, East America, North America, South Not specified

China'sshare 59%

84% 83%68% 66%

46% 50% 53% 52%68%


1

1

1

2

2

4

4

5

17

91

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Egypt

Italy

Uzbekistan

Pakistan

Vietnam

Turkey

Bangladesh

Indonesia

India

China

Shipped Shuttle-Less Looms10 Biggest Investors (2018) (thousand units)


27 26

0

10

20

30

40

Shipped Large Circular Knitting MachinesWorld

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(thousand units)

-4%

YonY% [2018]


94% 92% 91% 92% 91% 88% 88% 87% 85% 85%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Shipped Large Circular Knitting MachinesBy Regions (Share to World Total)

Asia and Oceania Europe, Others Africa Europe, WestAmerica, North America, South Europe, East Not specified

China'sshare

69% 77% 73% 77% 75%60% 52% 43% 40% 48%


0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.5

2.7

12.6

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Egypt

Chinese Taipei

Pakistan

Uzbekistan

Indonesia

Bangladesh

Turkey

Vietnam

India

China

Shipped Large Circular Knitting Machines10 Biggest Investors (2018) (thousand units)


202160

0

50

100

150

200

250

Shipped Electronic Flat Knitting MachinesWorld

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(thousand units)

-20%

YonY% [2018]


90% 94% 93% 89% 86% 86%93% 94% 96% 95%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Shipped Electronic Flat Knitting MachinesBy Regions (Share to World Total)

Asia and Oceania Europe, Others Europe, West America, SouthAfrica Europe, East America, North

China'sshare 60%

74% 78% 72%59%

42% 51%73% 77% 76%


1

1

1

1.1

1.4

2.4

4.1

5.2

13.8

122.5

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Italy

Hong Kong, China

Uzbekistan

Myanmar

Cambodia

Turkey

Vietnam

India

Bangladesh

China

Shipped Electronic Flat Knitting Machines6 Biggest Investors (2018) (thousand units)

1’228 1’269

0

200

400

600

800

1’000

1’200

1’400

2015 2016 2017 2018

Shipped Finishing Machines (Continuous) [1] World & Region, per Sub-Category

Asia and Oceania Europe America Africa Not specified

(units)

Stenters Sanforizers/Compacters

Bleaching - Line Washing (stand-alone)

Relax Dryers/Tumblers200 207

050

100150200250

88 96

13793

050

100150200250

2015 2016 2017 2018

103163

2015 2016 2017 2018


126

64

0306090

120150

Shipped Finishing Machines (Continuous) [2]World & Region, per Sub-Category


(units)

Mercerizing - Line

Dyeing - Line (Hotflue) Singeing Line

Dyeing - Line (CPB)

6956

59 56

0306090

120150

2015 2016 2017 2018

10 12

2015 2016 2017 2018


2’1722’020

0

500

1’000

1’500

2’000

2’500

2015 2016 2017 2018

Shipped Finishing Machines (Discontinuous)World & Region, per Sub-Category


(units)

Overflow Dyeing Air Jet Dyeing Jigger Dyeing / Beam Dyeing

1’134

1’322

2015 2016 2017 2018

510 415

2015 2016 2017 2018


Take Away Message

China undergoes structural changes

0

50’000

100’000

150’000

200’000

250’000

300’000

350’000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Apparel Manufacturing's Revenue [US$ millions]

Apparel Output[Billion Units]

Productivity [1’000US$/Person)]

Unit Labor Cost [US$/Unit Output)]

Source : National Bureau of Statistics of China; Apparel Manufacturing in China/ IBISWorld (April, 2017)

World World

2 3

2014 2015 2016 2018 2019

Order intakes1st quarter

Order intakes2nd semester

Source: Textile Machinery Workshop, questionnaire on industry perspectives, ITMFGraph 1: How do you assess the current overall order intake for the 1st quarter (year-on-year)?Graph 2. What are the perspectives for the overall order intake 2nd half of the year (year-on-year)?Note: no survey in 2017.

Optimism Index General Perspectives for Order Intakes

between 2014 and 2019

Changing Business Cycle

Source: Textile Machinery Workshop, questionnaire on industry perspectives, ITMFQuestion: What are the perspectives for order intake in each country in the 2nd half of the year (year-on-year)?Note: no survey in 2017.

Bangladesh Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Vietnam

2014 2015 2016 2018 2019

Changing Business Cycle [Country specific]

Optimism Index Selected Asian Countries [2014 – 2019]

Source: Textile Machinery Workshop, questionnaire on industry perspectives, ITMFQuestion: What are the perspectives for order intake in each country in the 2nd half of the year (year-on-year)?Note: no survey in 2017.

Northern Africa Sub-Sahara Africa Turkey U.S.A.

2014 2015 2016 2018 2019

Optimism Index Rest of the World [2014 – 2019]

Changing Business Cycle [Country specific]

Final Comments

Overcapacity

low demand / high uncertainty

Wait and see attitude toward investment

Final Comments

Factors which influence the wait and see attitude

US-China trade conflict

BrexitCotton prices

Turkey political context

India small spinners cashflow issues

Second-hand machines / Scraping

Chinese cotton stocksDevaluation of the Turkish Lira Indian

business tax reform

Summary- Growing Global Textile & Apparel Markets- Share of e-Commerce is on the rise (around 20%)- New technologies allow mass customized production- Internet of Things (IoT) offers new potential to increase productivity- Sustainability is a trend and an integral part of business (CSR)- Infrastructure Projects (OROB-Initiative) – Creating new opportunities- Textile production concentrated in Asia (especially in China)- Shifts of textile production to other countries (Asia and partially Africa)- Production in other regions (Africa, Americas, Europe) has more potential due

to- Technologies (digital and 3-D printing, automation)- Fashion trends (fast fashion, speed to market)- Reduced cost differentials (rising labor costs)- Sustainability (traceability, circular economy)

- Global fiber consumption is on the rise (GDP and population)- Man-made fibers (mmf) are benefiting most- Within mmf, cellulosic staple + polyester filaments are growing strongly- Wool has become a «luxury» fibre- Cotton remains the largest supplier of staple fiber

Folie 1 - International Textile Manufacturers Federation

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