Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll 3/14/16 Sponsor(s) Fox 13 Tampa Bay Fox 35 Orlando Florida Times-Union Target Population Florida; likely presidential primary voters; Republican Sampling Method Blended sample; mixed mode: Likely Republican primary voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters. Only voters determined likely to attend the 2016 Florida Republican primary were included in the sample. Landline: registered voters were contacted on the evening of March 13 th , 2016 using an interactive voice response system. Mobile: registered voters were contacted on the evening of March 13 th , 2016 on their mobile devices. Respondents answered an identical survey in visual form. Weighting Two questions served as selection variables. The first question asked whether the respondent plans to attend the primary on March 15 th ; all responses other than “definitely,” “considering,” or “voted early” were excluded from the dataset. Respondents who are considering voting were then asked if they knew where their primary will be held (e.g. church, school); all responses of “I am unsure” were excluded from the dataset. The poll was weighted for age, race, gender, evangelism, and region using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using a calculation of historic primary voter turnout, external analysis and internal projections. Total Number of Respondents 787 (weighted) Margin of Error ±3.5% (95% confidence)
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Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll
3/14/16
Sponsor(s) Fox 13 Tampa Bay Fox 35 Orlando Florida Times-Union
Target Population Florida; likely presidential primary voters; Republican
Sampling Method Blended sample; mixed mode: Likely Republican primary voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters. Only voters determined likely to attend the 2016 Florida Republican primary were included in the sample. Landline: registered voters were contacted on the evening of March 13th, 2016 using an interactive voice response system. Mobile: registered voters were contacted on the evening of March 13th, 2016 on their mobile devices. Respondents answered an identical survey in visual form.
Weighting Two questions served as selection variables. The first question asked whether the respondent plans to attend the primary on March 15th; all responses other than “definitely,” “considering,” or “voted early” were excluded from the dataset. Respondents who are considering voting were then asked if they knew where their primary will be held (e.g. church, school); all responses of “I am unsure” were excluded from the dataset. The poll was weighted for age, race, gender, evangelism, and region using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using a calculation of historic primary voter turnout, external analysis and internal projections.
Total Number of Respondents 787 (weighted)
Margin of Error ±3.5% (95% confidence)
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll
3/14/16
1) How likely are you to vote in the 2016 Florida Republican primary on Tuesday, March 15th to
determine the Republican nominee for president? a) I will definitely vote b) I am considering voting c) I have already voted d) I have not decided, or I do not plan on voting [EXCLUDED]
Likely
Frequency Percent
Definitely 660 84.0
Considering 21 2.7
Already voted 105 13.4
Total 787 100.0
2) [IF Q1 = B] Where is your voting location? a) At a school b) At a church c) At a fire house d) At a community center or government building e) Other f) I am unsure [EXCLUDED]
Location
Frequency Percent
School 29 23.3
Church 28 22.2
Fire House 4 2.9
Community Center 50 40.1
Other 14 11.5
Total 124 100.0
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll
3/14/16 3) If the 2016 Florida Primary to determine the Republican nominee for President were held today, for
whom would you vote? a) Ted Cruz b) John Kasich c) Marco Rubio d) Donald Trump e) Undecided
Horse Race 1
Frequency Percent
Cruz 143 18.2
Kasich 76 9.7
Rubio 206 26.2
Trump 348 44.3
Undecided 13 1.6
Total 787 100.0
4) How committed are you to your choice for the Republican nomination? a) I am very committed and intend to vote for my candidate on March 15th b) I might change my vote between now and the Tuesday primary c) I have not yet decided
Commitment
Frequency Percent
Very committed 610 89.5
Might change 58 8.6
Undecided 13 2.0
Total 681 100.0
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll
3/14/16 5) If the primary were held today and you could not vote for your first chosen candidate, who would be
your second choice? a) Ted Cruz b) John Kasich c) Marco Rubio d) Donald Trump e) Undecided
Horse Race 2
Frequency Percent
Cruz 94 13.8
Kasich 137 20.1
Rubio 142 20.8
Trump 109 16.0
Undecided 199 29.2
Total 681 100.0
6) What is your age? a) 18-29 b) 30-44 c) 45-64 d) 65+
Age
Frequency Percent
18-29 39 5.0
30-44 103 13.0
45-64 315 40.0
65+ 330 42.0
Total 787 100.0
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll
3/14/16 7) What is your race/ethnicity?
a) White b) African-American c) Hispanic or Latino d) Other
Race
Frequency Percent
White 708 90.0
African - American 8 1.0
Hispanic / Latino 63 8.0
Other 8 1.0
Total 787 100.0
8) What is your gender? a) Male b) Female
Gender
Frequency Percent
Male 386 49.0
Female 401 51.0
Total 787 100.0
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll
3/14/16 9) How would you describe your political ideology?
a) Very conservative b) Somewhat conservative c) Moderate d) Somewhat liberal e) Very liberal f) Unsure
Ideology
Frequency Percent
Very Conservative 324 41.3
Somewhat Conservative 277 35.2
Moderate 141 18.0
Somewhat Liberal 16 2.0
Very Liberal 8 1.0
Undecided / DK 20 2.5
Total 787 100.0
10) Do you consider yourself to be an evangelical or born-again Christian? a) Yes b) No
Evangelism
Frequency Percent
Yes 369 47.0
No 417 53.0
Total 787 100.0
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll
3/14/16 11) Region
a) Panhandle b) First Coast or North Florida c) Central Florida and the I-4 corridor d) Southwest Florida e) Southeast Florida/Metro Miami
Region
Frequency Percent
Panhandle 78 10.0
First Coast 94 12.0
Central FL / I-4 314 40.0
SW FL 118 15.0
SE FL / Metro 181 23.0
Total 787 100.0
12) Collection Mode a) Landline b) Mobile
Collection Mode
Frequency Percent
Landline 651 82.7
Mobile 136 17.3
Total 787 100.0
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Poll
3/14/16
Horse Race 1
Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump Undecided
% % % % %
Likely Definitely 85.1% 84.0% 81.6% 85.3% 72.5%
Considering 1.0% 4.9% 2.1% 3.3% 0.0%
Already voted 13.9% 11.1% 16.4% 11.4% 27.5%
Commitment Very committed 90.4% 81.9% 89.1% 93.7% 0.0%
Might change 9.6% 18.1% 9.8% 5.4% 6.4%
Undecided 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% .9% 93.6%
Horse Race 2 Cruz 7.5% 5.0% 14.0% 17.9% 23.0%
Kasich 8.6% 9.4% 31.2% 20.7% 28.6%
Rubio 17.1% 14.9% 29.6% 19.3% 0.0%
Trump 29.3% 28.1% 9.1% 12.5% 0.0%
Undecided 37.5% 42.5% 16.2% 29.6% 48.4%
Age 18-29 1.0% 3.1% 7.0% 6.0% 0.0%
30-44 8.8% 9.7% 15.5% 13.7% 23.3%
45-64 49.3% 46.3% 36.4% 37.6% 22.7%
65+ 40.9% 40.9% 41.2% 42.7% 54.0%
Race White 94.7% 95.5% 86.1% 88.8% 96.8%
African - American 1.6% 1.3% .1% 1.2% 1.3%
Hispanic / Latino 3.3% 2.4% 13.2% 8.4% 0.0%
Other .5% .9% .6% 1.6% 2.0%
Gender Male 58.7% 33.4% 48.0% 49.0% 51.4%
Female 41.3% 66.6% 52.0% 51.0% 48.6%
Ideology Very Conservative 65.6% 18.4% 41.2% 36.2% 42.1%